MrXYZ's NRL thread

MrXYZ · 02-17-12, 04:48 AM

Saturday 18 February -in the morning Sydney time.
WORLD CLUB CHALLENGE
LEEDS RHINOS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
MANLY -4.0 @1.91

The climate will be a factor, but once the NRL Premiers spark into action they'll prove too strong for the Rhinos & secure the trophy with a classy win.

Good luck, looking forward to sharing another profitable NRL Season with you guys.

hawley · 02-17-12, 06:12 AM

edit: wrong thread.

GL on Leeds

MrXYZ · 02-29-12, 06:14 PM

NRL kicks off today! It should be one of the best we've seen.

Manly, Dragons & Broncos, the elite teams from last year(and reliable money makers to cover the points), are now vulnerable and this opens up the top 8. With some intriguing player movements & signings it'll be a closely fought race to the Premiership.

Thursday 01 March
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
KNIGHTS -3.5 @1.95 1 unit play

Rolling with the home team in the hyped season opener. Great value thanks to TAB, as I've seen Knights elsewhere at 1.85.

2011 NRL regular season record: 77-62 55.4%

Good luck everyone.

s2230011 · 02-29-12, 11:47 PM

What do you think of the points ?? 35 points seems a bit too little, I know why they set it, but I htink Newcastle are generally an over team and the Dragons have been working on their offence, I think its a bit low ...

angelo63 · 03-01-12, 12:37 AM

Early season games with slippery conditions will make ball handling that extra bit harder. Bennett is an under coach and the Dragons defense looked solid in the charity shield. Bookies are reacting to the weather conditions but we should also take into account the strong defensive centers on both sides with Cooper and Scott opposing Tahu. This will be a chess match, Saints will feel like they are playing themselves from 3 years ago. Lots of pressure on the Knights to perform and sometimes the burden of expectation can cause players to do crazy things. Should be a cracker of a match though.

s2230011 · 03-01-12, 12:55 AM

Fair enough .. but there is alot of attacking weapons out there .. .look at the wingers and second rowers ... I like the Dragons for value tonight, I just feel that number is too low. I dont buy into round one being under ... I think historically round one has been healthy, last year avg score of round 1 was 43.24, compared to the season average of 39.

angelo63 · 03-01-12, 12:59 AM

The weather is playing a large role in the under price, The game will be hit with rain at some point and the field is slightly wet already.If a shower hits the ground then the ball handling will go downhill quickly.

angelo63 · 03-01-12, 01:05 AM

Knights were 16-9 under last season, also 8-3 under in night matches, 1-4 ATS in the wet last season also the went 5-0 under in night matches in the wet and 10-1 under in the wet over the last two seasons. The knights can only be stronger defensively with Bennett. Under is the bet.

MrXYZ · 03-01-12, 06:03 AM

Sorry guys, I was unable to reply to comments due to SBR's upgrade. It was frustrating not to be able to post my total play for the under, but it looks like some you cashed it so well done.

MrXYZ · 03-01-12, 06:11 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Thursday 01 March
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
KNIGHTS -3.5 @1.95 1 unit play

Rolling with the home team in the hyped season opener. Great value thanks to TAB, as I've seen Knights elsewhere at 1.85.

Knights unimpressive to say the least. Weather played a part, but the Dragons deserved their win. Saw it as a solid play but I was proven dead wrong & no excuses. I was on the under but couldn't post it as explained in the post above, so it won't count towards my tally.

2011 NRL regular season record: 77-62 55.4%

2012 NRL regular season record: 0-1

angelo63 · 03-01-12, 06:25 AM

It is going to be a season full of close matches, The Dragons had the game won in the first 20 but let the Knights back in,The Knights suffered from some stage fright and the huge expectations put on them, They are a good team and will improve, the best thing that can happen is another loss or two and they move out of the spotlight. It was frustrating not being able to post during the last few hours though. Anyway good luck to all..The Broncos look very strong tomorrow, If Hayne plays he will be carrying an injury so it wont cause any movement in the line.

benrama · 03-01-12, 07:40 PM

I was actually pretty positive after the game - Uate could have got the ball more, but I thought he, Boyd, McManus and Naiqama in particular had good games. Their fitness levels were good - but crucial errors just let them down at the wrong time.

They'll be good for the final eight, pretty convinced of that. Amazing coincidence for Bennett to lose by 1 - same thing happened with the Dragons in 2009. They ended up that season minor premiers - not sure Knights can pull that one off but I don't expect them to lose too many more games at home - I'd say nearly every game there will be a sell-out.

kingsr · 03-01-12, 11:58 PM

I'm very confident New will make the 8 and probably the TOP 4! Terrible performance last night and only lost by 1 point in golden point extra time.

angelo63 · 03-02-12, 12:04 AM

I agree totally about the Knights, another loss or two and they will be wort a good bet for the flag.

MrXYZ · 03-02-12, 03:27 AM

Friday 2 March
PARRAMATTA EELS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
EELS +4.5 @1.95

This is purely a situational play. Jarryd Hayne may be out, however I can't pass up a +4.5 spread in the rain & against a Broncos in their first real test without Lockyer.

MrXYZ · 03-02-12, 03:39 AM

I think the Knights make the 8 as well, their next game is against the Sharks & we should see a better performance. Looking back, it was a lot to ask for them to beat a fired-up Dragons in a highly charged opener.

MrXYZ · 03-02-12, 03:42 AM

Adding:
Game Total OVER 32.5 @1.90

MrXYZ · 03-02-12, 07:01 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Friday 2 March
PARRAMATTA EELS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
EELS +4.5 @1.95

Game Total OVER 32.5 @1.90

Should've passed on this game. Expected more from Parra but it looks like it'l be more of the same for them this year. That ill advised shot at the over capped it off, though had the Broncos got scoring earlier it may have had a chance.

0-2

A terrible start. If this continues I may have to take time off to reassess my approach. It's easy to get into a hole in this game and I also don't want ppl to lose money by tailing my picks.

2012 NRL regular season record: 0-3 -2.5 units (total play was for 0.5) -$125. Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-02-12, 10:38 PM

Saturday 3 March
PENRITH PANTHERS vs BULLDOGS
PANTHERS ML @2.00 x2

Rolling with the Panthers to kick off their season with a hard fought win.

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 12:28 AM

Saturday 3 March
NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
COWBOYS ML @1.53 x2

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 02:52 AM

Adding:
PENRITH PANTHERS vs BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.90 x1

Taking the over in this one. Good luck everyone.

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 09:48 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

PENRITH PANTHERS vs BULLDOGS
PANTHERS ML @2.00 x2
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.90 x1

NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
COWBOYS ML @1.53 x2

Wow, another crap result. Penrith were on their way to a convincing win but Michael Gordon's season ending injury just killed them and my plays. Then Cowboys were the final kick in the nuts, who could've predicted such an embarassing display? But that's just the nature of this game once the losses
pile up. My apologies to anyone who tailed.

I had a huge day in NBA & NBL and if footy is going to drag down my profits then I'll cut my losses and stop. Have seen guys like Kobstopa & Lakercrazy, solid NBA cappers, fall off to bad starts & get buried it's not gonna happen to me.

Giving it one last shot on Sunday.

Saturday: 1-3 -3.1 units -$155
2012 NRL regular season record: 1-6 -5.6 units -$280. Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 06:44 PM

Sunday 4 March
NZL WARRIORS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
GAME TOTAL OVER 36.5 @1.90 x5

The Grand Final rematch is here and has everyone expectign a fired up Warriors to get revenge. However Manly are equally charged, out to prove they can defend the title without Hasler. I'm leaning Manly to win, however I'm making a big play on the over & I have this one set at 38-40. I've upped the units from the original 2 set aside for this play. It's a chase so tail at your own peril, or fade and see if you can get the win. if it fails to hit I'm done for the year as my loss limit for the NRL season is -10 units.

Good luck today.

That Guy · 03-03-12, 09:56 PM

good play mate - back in the game!

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 09:57 PM

Sunday 4 March
WESTS TIGERS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
TIGERS ML @1.46 x2
TIGERS -6.5 @1.95 x1

MrXYZ · 03-03-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by That Guy

good play mate - back in the game!

Thanks, let's keep it going with the Tigers.

ThaBigG · 03-03-12, 10:17 PM

Nice work on the warriors over!!

MrXYZ · 03-04-12, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by ThaBigG

Nice work on the warriors over!!

Thanks! I'm very relieved it paid off.

MrXYZ · 03-04-12, 03:27 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday 4 March
NZL WARRIORS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
GAME TOTAL OVER 36.5 @1.90 x5

WESTS TIGERS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
TIGERS ML @1.46 x2

TIGERS -6.5 @1.95 x1

Warriors/Manly total sailed over & the Tigers survived against the Sharks in a last-minute thriller. Got greedy & almost undid the day's work. This has been the toughest weekend of NRL tipping in recent memory and I'm relieved to have survived.

So far in every home team has failed to cover, which is unbelievable. The books killed everyone this week, if you believe their twitter feeds many punters got buried going big on the opening round.

Today: 2-1 +4.42 units $221
2012 NRL regular season record: 3-7 -1.18 units -$59. Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-04-12, 05:19 PM

MONDAY 5 March
SOUTH SYDNEY vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
SOUTH SYDNEY ML @1.85 x2

Rolling with the Bunnies today. Good luck!

MrXYZ · 03-05-12, 06:44 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

MONDAY 5 March
SOUTH SYDNEY vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
SOUTH SYDNEY ML @1.85 x2

lol.

Today: 0-1 -2 units -$100
2012 NRL regular season record: 3-8 -3.18 units -$159. Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-06-12, 07:43 AM

Round 2
Saturday March 10
GOLD COAST TITANS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
RAIDERS ML @2.13 x 3

Taking an early shot at this one. It's great value & I expect the prices to even out as we approach kickoff.

MrXYZ · 03-08-12, 07:52 AM

Round 2
Friday 9 March
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.85 x5

TAB Sportsbet the only book posting totals at the moment. It's a big play as I'm expecting to 40+ points scored in this game. Both teams are very capable of making this happen with ease but we'll have to wait & see if the Cowboys can regroup after last week's debacle.

MrXYZ · 03-09-12, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Round 2
Friday 9 March
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.85 x5

Easy winner! A bad idea to go for the opener as it cost me 5 cents of value. I still think the books set it too low, should've opened at 40 or 42 and that's what we'll see next time they play.

1-0 +4.25 units +$212.5
2012 NRL regular season record: 4-8 +1.07 units +$53.5 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-10-12, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Round 2
Saturday March 10
GOLD COAST TITANS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
RAIDERS ML @2.13 x 3

Have a gut feel that I've made mistake here and the Titans get the home win. It's been bothering me all day and decided to buy out of it as I've got a few more picks for the round. It's unlikely we'll see a golden point in this one but you never know.

GOLD COAST TITANS -2.0 *1.91 x3