MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

Monday
CRONULLA SHARKS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x4.5

As expected, this one sailed over with Parra winning 29-20 over a Sharks team who not only blew a 14 point lead, but were held scoreless in the 2nd half. Very happy with cashing this play, as it edges me closer to 20 units & a $1k profit for the NRL season.

1-0 +4.05 units $202.50
2012 NRL season record: 24-29 +18.55 units $927.50 Unit size is $50.

[benrama]

Good work mate! Totals have been good to all of us lately.

At first glance I'm liking Tigers and Warriors this weekend, always like to play good sides close to full strength around origin time.

[MrXYZ]

Good work mate! Totals have been good to all of us lately.

At first glance I'm liking Tigers and Warriors this weekend, always like to play good sides close to full strength around origin time.

Thanks! I'm leaning Tigers as well, this game would've been tough for them had it not been for Orgin & they'll be looking for a solid win.

[thesoxman101]

Thank you for the picks!

[MrXYZ]

Thank you for the picks!

[MrXYZ]

Round 14
Friday
MELBOURNE STORM vs WESTS TIGERS
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.80 x1

I think Tigers win this but missed getting this early & not gonna touch -6.5. It's about as square as it gets to roll with the under, but I'm expecting Storm to grind it out to compensate for their missing Origin stars.

[MrXYZ]

Round 14
Friday
MELBOURNE STORM vs WESTS TIGERS
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.80 x1

Tigers prevail 10-8 in a lacklustre game & send the total into the bank for a winning start to the round.

1-0 +0.8 units $40
2012 NRL season record: 25-29 +19.35 units $967.50 Unit size is $50.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game Total UNDER 42.5 @1.90 x0.5
KNIGHTS ML @1.52 x1

Raiders are terrible though capable of an upset & nobody has a clue what to expect from the troubled Knights. They should win at home though and have a solid game without Boyd. Meanwhile a small edge to the under makes it worth 1/2 a unit.

[MrXYZ]

Well, f**k. Knights are getting killed & of course it's going to to sail over the total. Should've laid off this game.

[easysaid]

Yup, tailed this for $100 and have already written it off as a loss. Alot of these NRL plays thread people expect to make a play every game..

[MrXYZ]

Yup, tailed this for $100 and have already written it off as a loss. Alot of these NRL plays thread people expect to make a play every game..

Sorry you lost on this play. We should've passed on this game. But who would've predicted the Knights being down by 12 within the 1st ten minutes for the second straight week? The NRL is nonsense sometimes.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday
CRONULLA SHARKS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 30.5 @1.90 x3

TAB's offering a number 3 points off what I've seen & even though this could be a fairly low scoring game, the extra value is too good to pass up. Win or lose, this situation always makes it worth a bigger play for me. As always manage your risk accordingly. Good luck

[MrXYZ]

CASH THAT WINNER!!!

[easysaid]

Good stuff, we got lucky with this as it dried up for the 2H. But we'll take it anyway

[MrXYZ]

Saturday
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game Total UNDER 42.5 @1.90 x0.5
KNIGHTS ML @1.52 x1
Sunday
CRONULLA SHARKS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 30.5 @1.90 x3

A big winner as the Sharks overcome a slow 1st half to defeat the Titans 22-12. After drastically reducing my NRL unit size from last season, I thought it would take much longer to cross over $1k profit so it's a great result.

That's if for round 14, good luck if you play the Warriors/Panthers game.

1-2 +1.2 units $60
2012 NRL season record: 26-31 +20.55 units $1027.50 Unit size is $50.

[MrXYZ]

A lot of you guys were on the Warriors/Panthers over tonight, nice work. Public got buried smashing the under, and so did a few "sharps" as well. It was pouring all day & I laid off this game. No regrets, was going to take the Panthers, thought they were headed for the upset but they couldn't do it.

The rain looks like continuing & it's going to make Origin 2 impossible to predict, so I'll have one or two small action plays at the most.

[MrXYZ]

STATE OF ORIGIN GAME 2
NSW vs QLD
QLD ML @2.00 x0.5

Rolling with QLD for a small play, great value at these odds. No point going big in this one. Good luck & let's enjoy the game.

[MrXYZ]

It was worth a shot. What a game, QLD had several chances to edge ahead but couldn't execute. So it goes according to the script: NSW square the series to set up a blockbuster game 3.

[quarterback]

It was worth a shot. What a game, QLD had several chances to edge ahead but couldn't execute. So it goes according to the script: NSW square the series to set up a blockbuster game 3.

By blockbuster I guess you mean go big on Queensland ml should see $1.50 - $1.70

[MrXYZ]

Round 15
Friday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.80 x1.5

I'm expecting a better Dragons offense Dragons & meanwhile the Bulldogs should score 3-4 tries to get this one home.

[MrXYZ]

Round 15
Friday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.80 x1.5

Cash that easy winner! The over hits about ten minutes into the 2nd half as the Bulldogs prove too strong for the Dragons 28-20.

1-0 +1.2 units $60
2012 NRL season record: 27-31 +21.75 units $1087.50 Unit size is $50.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday
PARRAMATTA EELS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x1.75

We'll need the Origin stars to fire in this one for it to go over. Fatigue factor & rain is why the books' number is at least 2 points off what it should be.

Tail or fade, good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday
PARRAMATTA EELS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x1.75

Sandow tried hard but couldn't produce the goods against his old club & Souths won 24-6. That try-saving tackle by Reynolds was the best I've seen all year. Had that gotten over the line it may have given the total a chance. That's how it goes.

One play lined up for Sunday. If this doesn't hit I'll be walking away from the NRL, as it would take me below $1k for the season. Too many guys on SBR get themselves up a good number of units only to lose most of their profits with a losing streak and I want to avoid that fate.

0-1 -1.75 units -$87.50
2012 NRL season record: 27-32 +20.0 units $1000.00 Unit size is $50.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday
WESTS TIGERS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.85 x2.5

Tigers have been over machines lately & I expect this to continue today as they return home to Leichhardt Oval. A sunny day is forecast & this number will probably get pounded. I got it at Sportsbet. TAB's offering 40.5.

Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday
WESTS TIGERS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.85 x2.5

Cash it!!!! Another easy winner as the Roosters smashing the Tigers 42-28.

1-0 2.125 units $106.25
2012 NRL season record: 28-32 +22.125 units $1106.25 Unit size is $50.

[silvap]

Nice cash sir, i've been having a tough time getting your bets before games (probably because of time zone differences) but glad to see you're doing well, will look to tail you on future bets

[MrXYZ]

Round 16
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @2.00 x0.5

Dragons are the league's worst attacking team and as expected the under is getting pounded. I'm fading the trend and taking a small action play for half a unit.

[MrXYZ]

Live Bet:

Brisbane vs Souths OVER 28.5 @1.88 x1

[MrXYZ]

Round 16
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @2.00 x0.5

Live Bet:
Brisbane vs Souths OVER 28.5 @1.88 x1

St George grind out a 8-6 win & the Broncos smash the Bunnies 26-12 in Petero Civoniceva's 300th game. Haven't been posting live bets for a while but this one was too easy to pass up. I got another unit in at half time & hope you some of guys did as well, at 30.5 it was a great play.

1-1 0.38 units $19
2012 NRL season record: 29-33 +22.505 units $1125.25 Unit size is $50.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x0.5

The books have started adjusting their totals. Overs have been cashing regularly and it's been easy money but look at the numbers they've offered so far in round 16:

DRAGONS/TITANS: 38.5
BRONCOS/RABBITOHS: 43.5
COWBOYS/RAIDERS: 44.5
EELS/PANTHERS: 42.5-44

It's tempting to take every under this week. If you did you'd be 2-0. I'll see how today's action plays out and maybe step back from totals for a week or two.

It's only a small play but I'm expecting the Cowboys to put on a show today and it should be an entertaining game. Good luck.

[sumwon]

Hey just asking for your valuable opinion!

What about this parlay:
cowboys -5.5
parra + 12.5
dogs +8.5
roosters +12.5

[MrXYZ]

Looks good. Those +12.5 teasers are tough to play & we might see a blowout in the parra game. Good luck.

[sumwon]

Looks good. Those +12.5 teasers are tough to play & we might see a blowout in the parra game. Good luck.

You mean a blow out in terms of parra right? surely not the panthers!
And yeah, those teasers give a nice $4.00 value... if it hits.

Thanks for your opinion!

[alta]

You mean a blow out in terms of parra right? surely not the panthers!
And yeah, those teasers give a nice $4.00 value... if it hits.

Thanks for your opinion!

These two bottom dwellers should play a close one. However if a blowout would occur, I think it would be a repeat of the 39-6 thrashing by the Panthers in Rd 4.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x0.5

Cowboys sailed over the line, smashing the Raiders 40-18. Wasn't expecting this to be such a high scoring game hence the small play.

Meanwhile today we saw the books setting high totals again:

BULLDOGS/STORM: 41.5
SEA EAGLES/ROOSTERS: 42.5

Most likely they'll continue to do this next week.

After Origin 3, the NRL becomes a race to the post-season with teams desperate to make the top 8 or secure their places at the top. We also see teams giving up and getting flattened, others making cinderella runs while one or two bottom dwellers upset favourites in an effort to entice their disappointed fans/sponsors to come back next year. And on top of that one of the elite teams struggles and folds under pressure. So this stretch of the year can be challenging and wipe out your profits if you're not careful.

Might have a play in tomorrow's Knights/Tigers game. Good luck with the rest of round 16.

1-0 0.45 units $22.50
2012 NRL season record: 30-33 +22.955 units $1147.75 Unit size is $50.