MrXYZ's NRL thread

MrXYZ · 05-19-12, 10:19 PM

Sunday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Game Total UNDER 41.5 @1.85 x5

The rain, an Origin depleted Souths & a struggling St George team make this a 5 unit play for me. After last night's debacle this could be another tough day, but I can't see this one going over 34 points.

MrXYZ · 05-20-12, 03:14 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Game Total UNDER 41.5 @1.85 x5

Cash it! I thought this one was dead and buried but they held on to force a golden point. Reynolds struck it perfectly & Souths won 19-18.
That's about as close as it gets!

1-0 +4.25 units $212.50
2012 NRL season record: 18-22 +7.635 units $381.75 Unit size is $50.

easysaid · 05-20-12, 04:59 AM

Very nice mate, took this play and was stuck to my seat for the last 15 minutes watching a drop goal fest

MrXYZ · 05-20-12, 06:44 PM

Monday
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.95 x0.5

Everyone's expecting a low scoring game & Cronulla's an under machine this season. I'm fading the public on Monday Night football for a small play. Good luck.

easysaid · 05-20-12, 07:36 PM

Hope your right, bookies have dropped the line to 36.5 now.

MrXYZ · 05-21-12, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Monday
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.95 x0.5

Ah well, it was worth a shot. Bulldogs ended up winners 26-6. I thought it was home after that 1st half, but that's footy! Moving on, Origin's almost here.

0=1 -0.5 units -$25
2012 NRL season record: 18-23 +7.135 units $356.75 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 05-21-12, 06:02 AM

SBR posted same thing twice...

benrama · 05-21-12, 06:27 AM

If you watched the 2nd half that over should have easily hit, I guess sometimes the "obvious" plays do win even on MNF.

MrXYZ · 05-21-12, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by benrama

If you watched the 2nd half that over should have easily hit, I guess sometimes the "obvious" plays do win even on MNF.

Both teams just couldn't finish. One knock-on after another. lol MNF buried the punters who saw easy money & hammered the over live/at half time.

MrXYZ · 05-22-12, 09:02 AM

State of Origin Game 1
NSW vs QLD
Game Total Over 36.5 @1.80 x5

QLD should win this one but I usually lay off sides in Origin footy. It can be wildly unpredictable, with any player capable of last minute heroics to kill the spread. However this should be a high scoring game. For me it's worth a 5 unit play with Sportsbet's 36.5 too good too pass up when everyone posted 38.5. As always manage your risk accordingly.

Good luck & enjoy the game!

binomial · 05-23-12, 03:47 AM

GL

I live over as well

MrXYZ · 05-23-12, 08:02 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

State of Origin Game 1
NSW vs QLD
Game Total Over 36.5 @1.80 x5

lol. Got this one dead wrong, what a great game though. Everyone on the blues +6 got robbed thanks to taht dumb call by the ref.

I've got no regrets about smashing a number that's 2 points off the market. So even though it didn't pay off this time, there's plenty of footy to look forward to this season, starting with Round 12 on Friday.

0=1 -5 units -$250
2012 NRL season record: 18-24 +2.135 units $106.75 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 05-24-12, 06:48 PM

Round 12
Friday
MELBOURNE STORM vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Game Total OVER 35.5 @2.15 x4.5

Brisbane resting their origin stars, Storm's Big 3 playing with no rest, rain, etc. Everything points to a low scoring grind, and I may be way off, but have to roll with the over at this number. If the Baby Broncos can get a couple of tries & Slater bounces back after his poor Origin effort it'll hit.

Tail or fade, good luck.

MrXYZ · 05-24-12, 06:57 PM

Was about to take 34.5 at Sportsbet @1.90 but then saw TAB offering 35.5 @2.10 ended up getting my play in @2.15.

hawley · 05-24-12, 09:32 PM

Surprised at how low that total is.

Even in the absence of the origin players these two teams can easily put up 40

MrXYZ · 05-25-12, 04:18 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Round 12
Friday
MELBOURNE STORM vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Game Total OVER 35.5 @2.15 x4.5

Brisbane resting their origin stars, Storm's Big 3 playing with no rest, rain, etc. Everything points to a low scoring grind, and I may be way off, but have to roll with the over at this number. If the Baby Broncos can get a couple of tries & Slater bounces back after his poor Origin effort it'll hit.

Adding:
Game Total OVER 32.5 @2.00 x4.5

Maybe I'm being stubborn but still think this is an over-reaction to the rain. Too much value to pass up at 32.5. It does seem at 9 units to be a huge play but keep in mind it's a manageable risk at 4.5% of my NRL.

MrXYZ · 05-25-12, 06:10 AM

LET'S CASH THIS ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MrXYZ · 05-25-12, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Round 12
Friday
MELBOURNE STORM vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Game Total OVER 35.5 @2.15 x4.5

Game Total OVER 32.5 @2.00 x4.5

Melbourne smashed the Broncos 34-10, sailing over the total for a huge win.

1-0 +9.675 units $483.75
2012 NRL season record: 19-24 +11.81 units $590.50 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 05-26-12, 02:22 AM

Saturday

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 38.5 x0.5 @1.90

A strong defensive effort from the Bennet-coached Knights could kill the over by half time, while the Titans are unpredictable as always. I'm taking a shot against these teams' recent trends for a small play.

MrXYZ · 05-26-12, 04:20 AM

Saturday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total UNDER 40.5 @1.87 x1

MrXYZ · 05-26-12, 06:28 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Saturday

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 38.5 x0.5 @1.90

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total UNDER 40.5 @1.87 x1

Missed the Titans/Knights by half a point with a 24-14 scoreline. But the Dragons last minute 14-12 escape over Parra cashed the second play for a modest day's profit in the NRL.

1-1 +0.37 units $18.50
2012 NRL season record: 20-25 +12.18 units $609.00 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 05-26-12, 10:36 PM

Sunday
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PENRITH PANTHERS
MANLY -7 @1.92 x1
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.85 x1

Manly should steamroll the Panthers today in a tryfest. Good luck.

MrXYZ · 05-27-12, 03:48 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday
MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PENRITH PANTHERS
MANLY -7 @1.92 x1

Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.85 x1

I was clueless today. Panthers smashed a pathetic Manly team & the game goes under with a 22-4 score.

0-2 -2.0 units -$100
2012 NRL season record: 20-27 +10.18 units $509.00 Unit size is $50.

That Guy · 05-27-12, 03:57 AM

No one saw that score line coming.. Maybe missed some value in Panthers +6.5 but the score line today was unbelievable
GL for tomorrow night

MrXYZ · 05-27-12, 06:14 PM

Monday
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x1.5
BULLDOGS -3.5 @1.92 x 3.5
Rolling with the Bulldogs tonight. Good luck.

MrXYZ · 05-28-12, 06:10 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Monday
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x1.5

BULLDOGS -3.5 @1.92 x 3.5

Now that's more like it! Bulldogs smash the Roosters 30-12 to cash both plays.

2-0 +4.57 units $228.50
2012 NRL season record: 22-27 +14.75 units $737.50 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 06-01-12, 05:50 AM

I passed on today's games. Good luck everyone on the Cowboys.

MrXYZ · 06-02-12, 01:59 AM

Saturday
WESTS TIGERS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS Game total OVER 37.5 @1.90 x2.5 good luck today.

MrXYZ · 06-02-12, 05:02 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Saturday
WESTS TIGERS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS Game total OVER 37.5 @1.90 x2.5

Wests cash the over by themselves with a 40-0 win! Can't remember last time that happened. An easy winner, though it was looking like a 50+ scoreline after that 1st half.

1-0 +2.25 units $112.50
2012 NRL season record: 23-27 +17.0 units $850 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 06-02-12, 11:55 PM

Sunday
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.90 x1
KNIGHTS +14.5 @1.85 x1.5

I normally smash the over in Broncos games but I'm expecting a stronger effort from the troubled Knights to keep this from turning into scorefest . They should keep it reasonable close & 2+ converted tries is too much value to pass up.

MrXYZ · 06-03-12, 03:10 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.90 x1

KNIGHTS +14.5 @1.85 x1.5

Got my just desserts for overthinking this total, should've just gone with the over as I have done all season with the Broncos.

However it was impossible to predict that shocking start by the Knights to let in 24 points in just as many minutes. Meanwhile a second half blitz killed any hopes of a back door cover with a complete demolition of Bennet's men. I almost put a futures bet for them to make the top 8 at the start of the season...

Moving on to Monday Night Footy as the Sharks take on Parra in what should be a great game. Let's close out the round with a winner.

0-2 -2.5 units -$125
2012 NRL season record: 23-29 +14.5 units $725 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 06-03-12, 09:11 AM

Monday
CRONULLA SHARKS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x4.5

This is a bigger play than originally intended, but Sportsbet deserves to get hammered for posting a number below 40 on this game. Maybe there's an expectation of some defense but this is Parra we're talking about.
Good luck.

s2230011 · 06-03-12, 11:17 PM

Parra showed intensity against the Dragons .. I know that Dragons attack isnt great but they were on their lines for quite a bit in that second half. In addition, their two tries came from kicks and they didnt look like scoring in the second half, Sharks defend quite well too. I am not thinking under ... just stirring discussion.

I actually looked at some HT scores and both these teams have strong first half total points compared to second half. By my count Sharks are 7 -2 and Parra 7 -4, First half Higher scoring than the second half, i think that pays 2.10 at the TAB

easysaid · 06-04-12, 06:31 AM

Went big on the over play for the EELS/SHARKS game, wohoo cash it baby!

MrXYZ · 06-04-12, 06:46 AM

Originally posted by easysaid

Went big on the over play for the EELS/SHARKS game, wohoo cash it baby!

Easy money tonight!