MrXYZ's NRL thread

MrXYZ · 06-25-12, 05:03 AM

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs WESTS TIGERS

It's MNF so I laid off this one, but might have a small live play. The Knights rebounded from another terrible start to lead at half time! They could upset here.

MrXYZ · 06-25-12, 05:10 AM

Game Total OVER 51.5 @1.88 x1.5

MrXYZ · 06-25-12, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Game Total OVER 51.5 @1.88 x1.5

Huge upset by the Knights, winning 38-20 in a typical MNF game. They finally put together a solid effort. Their next game is against Parra so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Meanwhile the Tigers get a bye and plenty of time to think about losing 2 games in a row against inferior teams.

Unless something stands out, I will most likely pass on round 17 & return for an Origin 3 play. Good luck till then.

1-0 1.32 units $66
2012 NRL season record: 31-33 +24.275 units $1213.75 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 06-30-12, 04:24 AM

Round 17
Saturday
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total OVER 39.5 @1.90 x2

Both teams lack the discipline to play the grind-out footy that many are expecting to see tonight. With 2 of the worst NRL defenses on display, we'll need players to hold onto the ball in attack to cash the over.

As far as picking a side, the line at -2.0 is a trap, strictly for action punters and no play is my advice.
Good luck.

MrXYZ · 07-01-12, 12:03 AM

Sunday
SOUTHS vs PENRITH
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1

baskets · 07-01-12, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday
SOUTHS vs PENRITH
Game Total OVER 44.5 @1.90 x1

oh fukk me. I'm on the under.

20 minutes and not one point.... now 14-12 at 42"

any chance these fukkbags put up 18 or less in the remaining time? I think it's virtually impossible

baskets · 07-01-12, 01:26 AM

20-12 at 59'

baskets · 07-01-12, 01:33 AM

26-12 , 65"

not a chance the under holds. congrats on your win

the problem was Rabs giving up 2 tries to the Panthers

baskets · 07-01-12, 01:39 AM

32-12 , 71"

another bullshit try

right on 44

going to get fukked in the ass in this one

baskets · 07-01-12, 01:45 AM

wow

they called a try back b/c of a penalty.... at 75'

so it sits on 44

tick tock.

baskets · 07-01-12, 01:51 AM

lol, fukk me

try in the 79th minute

had to fukking rub it in

fukk my luck

MrXYZ · 07-01-12, 02:19 AM

Tough beat baskets, the over was dead after the disallowed try & I was kicking myself for making that play. Then Merritt somehow twisted his arm to ground the ball right on the line. Just unbelievable.

baskets · 07-01-12, 02:22 AM

congrats to you. didn't mean to root against you in your thread... I just needed that under.

That Guy · 07-01-12, 08:41 AM

Originally posted by baskets

congrats to you. didn't mean to root against you in your thread... I just needed that under.

I was like that with the Warriors vs Cowboys UNDER... sometimes you wish it'd just be over in the first 40 and not dragged out to give false hope..

MrXYZ · 07-01-12, 10:51 PM

Monday Night Football
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
DRAGONS -4.0 @1.91 x1
Game Total UNDER 37.5 @1.90 x2

In what is probably the most bizarre stat in the NRL, the Dragons have lost in Canberra for 12 straight years. In last year's game they were set for an easy win... before the Raiders staged an epic comeback to level the game with time running out. Soward slotted a field goal to seal victory, only for Gasnier's fumble off a short kick-off leading to a Dugan try. I remember this game vividly because it killed a $30 parlay that would've netted me over $1k.

The two teams meet again, with Dragons' offensive problems and supernatural way in which they keep losing in the nation's capital has punters hitting the Raiders line hard. But they're still amongst the NRL's worst teams and a desperate St George should keep their top 8 hopes alive. Also taking the under which is is great value. have it set at 32.5 making it worth the extra risk for 2 units.

MrXYZ · 07-01-12, 10:54 PM

Good luck tonight. Remember it's MNF and anything could happen so manage your risk accordingly.

MrXYZ · 07-02-12, 05:03 AM

For f**k's sake, 2 tries in 10 minutes.

Looking down the barrel of a 3 unit burial & might have to live bet myself out of this mess.

MrXYZ · 07-02-12, 05:07 AM

Live bet
Under 42 @1.88 x2

sportsguy04 · 07-02-12, 05:25 AM

Defenses showed up 2nd half.

sweepem · 07-02-12, 05:45 AM

first and last time i played a under.

MrXYZ · 07-02-12, 05:51 AM

What a joke. These clowns threw away the game again.

MrXYZ · 07-02-12, 06:04 AM

Not much you can do when St George lets in 2 tries in 2 minutes, then kick you in the nuts by falling apart in defense instead of running out the clock.

Round 17
2-3 -2.34 units -$117
2012 NRL season record: 33-36 +21.935 units $1096.75 Unit size is $50.

The Bet Master · 07-02-12, 06:08 AM

They easily could of stalled more but played nice.

MrXYZ · 07-03-12, 11:16 PM

State of Origin Game 3
NSW vs QLD
QLD -3.5 @1.92 x1
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.85 x2

I'm rolling with the Queenslanders in a high scoring game. With no rain forecast, and playing at home, they should be too strong for the Blues and take the series for a record 7th straight time.

Tail or fade, good luck.

MrXYZ · 07-04-12, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

State of Origin Game 3
NSW vs QLD
QLD -3.5 @1.92 x1

Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.85 x2

What a game! QLD scraped home for a historic win & cashed the over for a small profit.

1-1 +0.70 units $35
2012 NRL season record: 34-37 +22.635 units $1131.75 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 07-06-12, 12:46 AM

Round 18

Total points for Round 18
OVER 249.5 @1.90 x1

A few books are offering total round points & found this one at Centrebet. At 249.5, we get an average of 41.5 points. It's a high number, though it looks like we'll see 42.5 totals for most of the weekend's games. With at least 2 set to be tryfests & dud teams Panthers + St George on byes, it's pretty good value.

Friday
WESTS TIGERS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x2

The match of the round, with the surging Bulldogs out to cement their top 4 spot against a desperate Tigers team. 38.5 is being offered across most books & it's a fair number, with a slight edge to the over thanks to the Tiger's recent defensive woes. We may have to sweat it out though. Good luck.

MrXYZ · 07-06-12, 04:14 AM

Added 1 unit to wests/bulldogs total

MrXYZ · 07-06-12, 10:57 PM

MELBOURNE STORM vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x0.5

MrXYZ · 07-07-12, 07:51 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Friday
WESTS TIGERS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x2

MELBOURNE STORM vs CANBERRA RAIDERS
Game total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x0.5

Bulldogs cashed the easy 2 unit winner with a 32-20 score. Meanwhile the Raiders toppled the Storm 40-12 for smaller profit. It was only a small play - I was unsure the Green Machine would get across the line...

With the Warriors/Titans putting on a 32-14 tryfest, the total for Round 18 OVER 249.5 is looking good! It only needs an average of 33.5 points for the remaining games to cash.

2-0 +2.25 units $112.5
2012 NRL season record: 36-37 +24.885 units $1244.25 Unit size is $50.

hedgejob · 07-07-12, 09:29 AM

Those overs in NRL are relentless. Trend is your friend?

MrXYZ · 07-07-12, 10:30 AM

Originally posted by hedgejob

Those overs in NRL are relentless. Trend is your friend?

We've been cashing overs week after week and it's been fun. Nobody is playing grind out footy in the NRL it seems. The attacking flair & the speed of the game is unbelievable this year. Then again when the books keep offering Broncos at 38.5 it's a no brainer.

Parra/Manly & Souths/Knights are up next and at least one of those overs will hit.

At some point the run of easy money will end and the "sharps" will start making money again. The public has had it too easy. It could happen as early as next week.

MrXYZ · 07-07-12, 11:50 PM

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game total OVER 42.5 @1.80 x1

Sol · 07-08-12, 01:08 AM

Looks as though you will get the total points for the round, maybe with one game to spare! Great find, well done.

MrXYZ · 07-08-12, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by Sol

Looks as though you will get the total points for the round, maybe with one game to spare! Great find, well done.

Thanks Sol. And Parra just scored to cash today's over too!

MrXYZ · 07-08-12, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Total points for Round 18
OVER 249.5 @1.90 x1

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game total OVER 42.5 @1.80 x1

Never in doubt with Manly surviving a late charge from Parra 40-24. Souths 34-14 win over the Knights helped cash the Round 18 total, so regardless of what happens in the Sharks/Roosters MNF game this one's in the bank!

2-0 +1.70 units $85
2012 NRL season record: 38-37 +25.585 units $1329.25 Unit size is $50.