MrXYZ's NRL thread

MrXYZ · 03-10-12, 12:43 AM

Round 2
Saturday 10 March
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs BULLDOGs
Game Total OVER 36.5 @1.90 x1

Good luck today.

MrXYZ · 03-10-12, 07:57 PM

Sunday 11 March
CRONULLA SHARKS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x2

My only pick for today.Although the under at 43.5 is tempting, the Panthers/Roosters game is essentially a battle for the wooden spoon and strictly for action gamblers. Storm should take care of the Bunnies but I don't like what they're offering (6.5 at most books & 7.5 at TAB) so it's a pass.

MrXYZ · 03-10-12, 10:56 PM

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MrXYZ · 03-10-12, 11:55 PM

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MrXYZ · 03-11-12, 02:54 AM

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MrXYZ · 03-16-12, 03:30 AM

Round 3
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Game Total Over 36.0 @1.90 x3

Managed to get this before it moved. This a key number in the minds of NRL punters, though unlike the NFL there isn't really a statistical basis for it.

Good luck. I'm preferring to be a fan & not making many plays early this season. I don't have the motivation as the NBA & NBL have paid for an overseas holiday sooner than expected.

MrXYZ · 03-16-12, 10:01 AM

Can't believe this garbage, how did that total not go over? We should've seen at least 40 points by the Broncos alone. As sports bettor, this was one of the most frustrating NRL games I've ever had to sit through.

benrama · 03-16-12, 04:05 PM

Tell me about it mate! Should have been at least 40+ points scored, but Brisbane kept bombing try after try and Newcastle kept dropping the ball when they have possession.

You'd make that play again in a heartbeat.

MrXYZ · 03-17-12, 01:05 AM

Saturday
GOLD COAST TITANS vs MELBOURNE STORM
Storm -7.5 @1.95 x4

Might be my only play for today. Waiting on the total for Parra/Cowboys.

The Storm haven't been at their best yet still managed to take care of The Raiders and Souths. I say this a lot but they are the most professional team in the NRL. This could be over by half time if they decide to put on a show. Titans' big off-season spending spree is going to go down as a complete waste of money by season's end. The only reason they won't hold the wooden spoon this year is thanks to the Eels & Roosters.

I'm making this a 4 unit play, however note that I've got a bonus deposit making up half of it so you could say it's 2 units risk with all things considered. Yesterday's over bet was a tough beat and maybe 3 units was ill advised, but no-one in their right mind would've expected that dismal display.

MrXYZ · 03-17-12, 03:29 AM

Storm turn it around in the second half, smashing the Titans with a convincing 30-6 win.

Saturday
NORTH QLD COWBOYS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
Game Total UNDER 38.5 @1.90 x1

This one is toast...

MrXYZ · 03-17-12, 03:55 AM

edit:

live bet didn't go through.

MrXYZ · 03-17-12, 04:22 AM

Adding
Live bet at Half Time. Cowboys are on track to score 50.
Cowboys -30.5 @2.00 x1

MrXYZ · 03-17-12, 05:20 AM

Thought I had ruined the night, but that last minute try saved it. The under was a bad call, I thougt the weather would have a much bigger impact.

Today: 2-1 +3.8 units $190
2012 NRL season record: 7-13 -0.74 units -$37 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-17-12, 06:25 PM

Sunday
NZL WARRIORS vs BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x2

Rolling with the over in an excellent situational spot. I'll always take this number in a Warriors game, especially at home against a strong attacking side such as the Bulldogs.

MrXYZ · 03-18-12, 01:38 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday
NZL WARRIORS vs BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x2

The 18-32 scoreline makes it look like an easy win but it was a bit tense towards the end & it wasn't until Wright's 75th minute try that we banked it. The best game of the round so far, an absolute thriller.

I passed on the other games. Was leaning Bunnies & Raiders - they would've cancelled each other out anyway.

It's been a struggle but finally some profit after 3 rounds. $50 is a small unit size for me (same as NBL lol) but I'm managing my risk across League, NBA & NBL and don't want to stretch myself too thin. Baskeball's been my money maker so far & when the hoops are done I may up the stakes.

Today: 1.0 +1.8 units $90
2012 NRL season record: 8-13 +1.06 units +$53 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-20-12, 04:21 PM

Round 4
Friday 23 March
SOUTH SYDNEY vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
SOUTH SYDNEY ML @2.05 x 1

MrXYZ · 03-21-12, 04:21 AM

I jumped the gun, as the Rabbits are now @2.20. Regardless of that, this is an excellent situation to fade the Broncos and the kind of play I'll be making all season. They only won last week thanks to the Knights incompetence and I doubt they can stay with their fast & powerful opponents if they fall behind early in the game. Already in town preparing for this game, the neutral ground favours Souths' chances of an upset like the 16-12 victory we saw last year.

MrXYZ · 03-22-12, 04:33 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Round 4
Friday 23 March
SOUTH SYDNEY vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
SOUTH SYDNEY ML @2.05 x 1

Adding:
SOUTH SYDNEY vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.80 x1.5

No mystery why the NRL is showcasing these 2 teams for the fans out West. I'm expecting a high scoring game & t's about as square a play as they come. Not much value at 1.80, however at the moment TAB's the only book offering a total & was expecting it to open at 44.5. Punters will smash any number the books put up so it'll be interesting to see where it ends up by kickoff.

Sol · 03-22-12, 06:18 AM

I have a hard time trusting Souths but feel fairly confident about their chances tomorrow night. GL!

MrXYZ · 03-23-12, 03:29 AM

Thanks Sol, good luck tonight. I got bad numbers on both these plays, lost ten cents of value.

MrXYZ · 03-23-12, 03:31 AM

Friday
PARRAMATTA EELS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Game Total OVER 39.5 @1.90 x1

ultrasouth · 03-23-12, 03:58 AM

Which book did you get the 39.5?

MrXYZ · 03-23-12, 07:03 AM

Centrebet.

MrXYZ · 03-23-12, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Friday 23 March
SOUTH SYDNEY vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
SOUTH SYDNEY ML @2.05 x 1

SOUTH SYDNEY vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Game Total OVER 42.5 @1.80 x1.5

PARRAMATTA EELS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
Game Total OVER 39.5 @1.90 x1

Round 4 got off to a winning start with Penrith smashing the Eels 39-6 in what may prove to be Kearney's last game as coach. Then Broncos came up with a thrilling 20-12 comeback to sink both plays and any hopes for the Rabbits being a taken seriously as Premiership contenders.
I had a live play on Penrith -25.5 @1.95 but it won't count towards my record as it wasn't posted.

1-2 -1.6 units -$80
2012 NRL season record: 9-15 -0.54 units -$27 Unit size is $50.

MrXYZ · 03-24-12, 01:00 AM

Saturday 24 March
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 32.5 @1.55 x2

I was after 36 but I can only find 36.5. I have this game set in the 34-40 range and that 0.5 could be a kick in the nuts for over backers. Found this teaser at TAB & rolling with it for 2 units.

Might have a play on the other two games, so far I'm liking the Sharks to cover the +6.5.

Good luck with Super Saturday.

MrXYZ · 03-24-12, 03:16 AM

live bet under 34.5 @1.85 x1.5

MrXYZ · 03-24-12, 03:31 AM

Saturday
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
Game Total UNDER 37.5 @1.90 x2

Great value at this number.

MrXYZ · 03-24-12, 03:55 AM

live bet:

Under 36.5 @1.95 x1

MrXYZ · 03-24-12, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Saturday 24 March
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total OVER 32.5 @1.55 x2

live bet under 34.5 @1.85 x1.5

ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
Game Total UNDER 37.5 @1.90 x2

live bet Under 36.5 @1.95 x1

Disappointing start with the Warriors total, at 26-6 tough beat but that's what happens when you take the dumb safer bet. The live play salvaged that game. St George/Manly sailed under with a 16-6 win, thanks to some outstanding defense. The sweetener was getting the live play in at great odds.

3-1 +2.025 units +$101.25
2012 NRL season record: 12-16 +1.485 units $74.25 Unit size is $50.

Sol · 03-24-12, 07:03 PM

Well done last night. Whenever i make those 'safer' plays i tend to lose

did well to recover with the live bet.

Any leans for today?

benrama · 03-24-12, 07:48 PM

Nice call in the saints under, never looked in doubt.

As for record keeping, IMO you shouldn't count live bets, the official thread record should represent plays made before the game that others could tail if they so choose.

Too many people propping up their records on sbr and covers with live bets.

MrXYZ · 03-24-12, 08:06 PM

Sunday
MELBOURNE STORM vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 36.5 @1.85 x1

MrXYZ · 03-24-12, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by benrama

Nice call in the saints under, never looked in doubt.

As for record keeping, IMO you shouldn't count live bets, the official thread record should represent plays made before the game that others could tail if they so choose.

Too many people propping up their records on sbr and covers with live bets.

Thanks Ben. Although live bets are part of my strategy this year, there's no capping skill involved as it's all about making quick decisions. I'll keep posting them but will track them separately. A lot of guys on SBR keep making these big plays & then saying, "ah well, I bought out at half time" & it's a load of crap most of the time.

MrXYZ · 03-25-12, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by MrXYZ

Sunday
MELBOURNE STORM vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Game Total OVER 36.5 @1.85 x1

Easy winner with the Storm blasting the Roosters 44-4! Questionable ref calls aside, that was a brilliant display from the NRL's best team.

1-0 +0.85 units +$42.50
2012 NRL season record: 13-16 +2.335 units $116.75 Unit size is $50.

kingsr · 03-25-12, 05:14 AM

Jesus himself couldn't stop Melbourne storm this year! Damn what a team!