MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

Monday 08 August

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS vs PARRAMATTA EELS
SOUTHS -3.5 @1.91
GAME TOTAL OVER 40.5 @1.90

Souths demolish Parra 56-6 to cash both plays! A great end to the round.

2-0
Round 22: 7-7
Record so far: 43-27 61.43%

[MrXYZ]

Round 23, from Centrebet.



With heavy favourites, lines out to +16 & beyond, and a couple of coin toss games this round is full of traps. I might focus on totals & throw in a parlay.

Good luck everyone with your picks.

[binomial]

on first look i quite like wests, souths and easts.

[hawley]

Raiders Rabbitohs over anything

Like Broncos over too

[benrama]

Penrith have a great track record against the Tigers, and something tells me they cover on Friday night but after last week I won't touch them.

I do like Brisbane -1.5, yes Thurston is back but he'll be rusty and may even detract from the chemistry the team has had in his absence. Broncos have a 13-2 record at Dairy Farmers, and 23-5-2 record against NQ overall, and it's Lockyears 350th game so there should be some extra energy there for the Broncos.

Also a strong lean to Manly -10, from the game on Monday night you can tell the Eels given up on this season mentally, while the Eagles still have plenty to play for to stay in the top 2 and guarantee a second chance for the finals. Also looking to parlay them, perhaps with the NZW, but need more research into that.

I had a lean to the Warriors/Knights over but looks like the weather forecast for Auckland is for rain, so will stay away from that game most likely.

[MrXYZ]

I like the Broncos over. However we needed that field goal to cash the total last week & the books will set it high again.

St George is now -18, ridiculous but considering Carney & two other players are missing it's a fair enough line. Unplayable though.

Parra were terrible last week but I think they have a shot at covering against Manly.

[hawley]

Broncos total should be around 42 - 44 will it?

I like it unless the Broncos can lock down the Cowboys which proves to be pretty difficult at home

[s2230011]

For the Roosters its Carney, Myles and Nuuesala .. who was suspended anyway. Big looses !!

For Penrith tonight ... Lewis is out and Jennings has just been stood down for disciplinary reasons.Think Tigers 1.45 will shorten even more.

Another one that I wasnt aware of, Prince is out for GC. I am not sure they are going to score any points against the Storm

[hawley]

Jennings turned up drunk to a training after all all-nighter apparently

[benrama]

Yep like the Brisbane/NQ over too, they hit 50 points in the game in 2010 on NQ's home ground. Still like them straight up tonight too, can't go past how good Brisbane's stats are against NQ overall and at Dairy Farmers.

s22 - Friday night football is like Monday night football - strange things happen. Penrith have an excellent home record, a league best record against the Tigers and are still in with a mathematical chance of finals football. Even with the injuries, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them win straight up - my initial lean was Tigers but I just can't trust them in this spot. BOL if you do play it however.

[MrXYZ]

Prince broke his arm last week. A huge blow for the Titans & I can't see Preston making much of an impact as a replacement.

With Jennings stood down, Tigers ML @1.34 & line out to -8.5.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 12 August
BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
GAME TOTAL OVER 41.5 @1.90

Going with the over in this one. Broncos should score around 24 points so depends on whether JT can get the Cowboys rolling.

[hawley]

Like the over

Interesting to see the line at pinny slowly moving towards the Cowboys

Will be interesting to see how it closes

[s2230011]

I am leaning Broncos heavily ...

[hawley]

I am leaning Broncos heavily ...

I love the Broncos here but the last few weeks I have found Pinny has been sharp as hell with how the lines close

[s2230011]

Ummm well I am pretty close to pulling the trigger on Broncos HT.

Couple of factors:
1. JT returning from long lay off, so hopeing he finds his feet slowly
2. The cowboys usually finish stronger than they start .. actually in the last 6 games, despite winning their fair share, never once led at half time. Their record at half time has been 0-1-5 and 2 - 2 - 8
3. 350 for Lockyer the boys shouldnt start the game lacking motivation.

Just thinking out loud

[hawley]

Broncos ht/ Cowboys ft @ $7 is juicy

Cowboys always come home strong and your you raise some valid points

[s2230011]

Last two times I did this HT/FT combo ... I got bitten with draws at HT .. it was Broncos v Storm, and Warriors v Dogs, both won easy but HT draws, so I stopped this HT crap

[hawley]

Last two times I did this HT/FT combo ... I got bitten with draws at HT .. it was Broncos v Storm, and Warriors v Dogs, both won easy but HT draws, so I stopped this HT crap

This one could easily be a draw at HT and / or FT

I still think that over is probably the best play....plenty of firepower all over the field and the Cowboys always score points at home

[s2230011]

Benrama, you are scaring me off the Tigers. I just think they are a rabble at the moment, Tigers are coming off a huge high though. What does everyone think ? I cannot tip Panthers, cause they can quit at a drop of a hat, but can the Tigers be trusted?

[benrama]

s22, mate stick with your initial leans if you like them, I'm wrong nearly 50% of the time on these things! Tigers are playing great football of late but personally I can't trust them.

Penrith's most recent home games were Manly (loss by 4), Eels (win by 1), Bulldogs (win by 14), NQ (win by 10), Souths (win by 12), Brisbane (win by 23) - not a bad record. Now with the team changes it's a different story here, but this is an inner-west vs west type of rivalry and it just seems the Panthers get up for the games against the Tigers historically, and that's why they have a league best record against them.

I think Tigers still win straight up but you are getting shitty odds, and on the ATS you have the extra factor that it has been raining here in Sydney today. Just generally seems like a "pass" type of game.

Definitely like the Brisbane 1H play, wasn't looking at that angle - good pick up.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 12 August
WESTS TIGERS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 42.5 @1.85

It's been raining on & off all day, so I'm going with the under in this game. It'll be close though.

[MrXYZ]

adding for a small play:

ML PARLAY: TIGERS/BRONCOS @2.40

[benrama]

Good night overall, s22 hope you still played the Tigers, though I think that was a fortunate cover given that the game had a few 12 point swings.

Brisbane won the 1H, were far too good for NQ overall, and the over cashed with plenty of time to go.

Good capping and conversation guys, I can't be around much on the weekend but will check into this thread if/when I can.

[MrXYZ]

Friday 12 August
WESTS TIGERS vs PENRITH PANTHERS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 42.5 @1.85

BRISBANE BRONCOS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
GAME TOTAL OVER 41.5 @1.90

ML PARLAY: TIGERS/BRONCOS @2.40

A pretty good night. First up Penrith put up a decent fight despite injury/suspension dramas, but Tigers were too good & their 32-18 win killed the total. Then Broncos cashed both plays with a fitting show for Lockyer's 350th game. I hope some of you guys were on the parlay, some good money made on that one!

2-1
Record so far: 45-28 61.64%

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 13 August
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.90
KNIGHTS +6.5 @1.92

A sharp line but I like the Knights at +6.5. They're very capable of coming within a converted try of the home team if not closer. Warriors should get the win though, and I'm expecting a lower scoring game than what these teams came up with last week.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 13 August

MELBOURNE STORM vs GOLD COAST TITANS
STORM -17.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PARRAMATTA EELS
MANLY -10 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90

Storm should win by at least 20. I'm taking a shot at the over, although it's a risky play as I'm not expecting more than 4 points from the Titans.

Parra will lift against their traditional rivals but Manly are too good & should cover the points in a high scoring game.

Good luck today.

[NEW_WORLD]

thanks for yeasterdays winner, good luck today

[MrXYZ]

thanks for yeasterdays winner, good luck today

Thanks! We had another good day.

[MrXYZ]

Saturday 13 August

NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
GAME TOTAL UNDER 40.5 @1.90
KNIGHTS +6.5 @1.92

MELBOURNE STORM vs GOLD COAST TITANS
STORM -17.5 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs PARRAMATTA EELS
MANLY -10 @1.92
GAME TOTAL OVER 38.5 @1.90

The under was in the bank & a Knights upset was brewing but Warriors turned up the intensity to get them home. Then Melbourne smashed the Titans & cashed both plays. It was looking like a perfect finish until that last minute try from Parra killed Manly's hopes of covering. But we got the over on that one so overall I'm happy with today's efforts.

Today: 4-2
Round 23: 6-3
Record so far: 49-30 62.03%

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 14 August
CANBERRA RAIDERS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
SOUTHS -4.0 @1.92

Souths are firing & should get this one easily against the Raiders. I'm also on Merritt to score at try @2.50. It was offered by Centrebet as this week's Friday afternoon "hour of power" NRL special.

[MrXYZ]

Sunday 14 August
ST GEORGE DRAGONS vs SYDNEY ROOSTERS
ST GEORGE -18.5 @1.90
GAME TOTAL OVER 36.5 @1.85

Carney's latest drama makes this game even more one sided & St George will pile on the points to emerge from their slump. I'm expecting a total demolition of the Roosters, but -18.5 points is a lot to cover so it'll be interesting to see if they can do it.

[hawley]

Sunday 14 August
CANBERRA RAIDERS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
SOUTHS -4.0 @1.92

Souths are firing & should get this one easily against the Raiders. I'm also on Merritt to score at try @2.50. It was offered by Centrebet as this week's Friday afternoon "hour of power" NRL special.

Good luck, im on it as well but -2.5 which our local hung well after other books moved the line and only just went to -4.5

[MrXYZ]

Thanks hawley, a good start by the Bunnies with that 100 metre try.

[hawley]

easy winner

the over was too easy as well