MrXYZ's NRL thread

MrXYZ · 03-28-13, 04:05 AM

TAB has the under 38.5 @1.80 & Centrebet 40.5 @1.85. It looks like the consensus is for a low scoring game. We'll see what happens.

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-28-13, 04:49 AM

Was pissing down up there

Looks like its staying way under

MrXYZ · 03-28-13, 05:03 AM

Buried.

Gee · 03-28-13, 05:11 AM

It happens. I'm glad you didn't chase at HT today.

Please don't do so tomorrow.

I haven't really followed your thread(s) until this year, but you seem to know your NRL (and 10-6, soon to be 10-7 suggests that)... but, like most, not a good tilter.

Hopefully this post makes you think twice and doesn't ultimately put you off at 10x winner.

Gee · 03-28-13, 05:11 AM

...

MrXYZ · 03-28-13, 10:38 AM

Originally posted by Gee

It happens. I'm glad you didn't chase at HT today.

Please don't do so tomorrow.

I haven't really followed your thread(s) until this year, but you seem to know your NRL (and 10-6, soon to be 10-7 suggests that)... but, like most, not a good tilter.

Hopefully this post makes you think twice and doesn't ultimately put you off at 10x winner.

Thanks Gee. I have to stop these 5 unit plays, they're killing me. Then again the big plays hit last week. It's retarded to keep grinding back to profit only to lose it again. Been working late nights and not putting in the time to the NRL and the results show it. What kind if moron watches the line go against him, and doesn't even buy out when it's raining?

Might pull the plug and just stick to the NBA until the Finals. Heat, Knicks & Lakers overs all hit today for easy money and all were fun to watch. NRL's 20+ point blowouts every week are killing the game.

MrXYZ · 03-28-13, 05:46 PM

CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Game Total OVER 38.5 @1.90 x5

Taking a big risk again but no way am I passing up this much value. TAB's number is off by 2 points. I'd still play it at 40.5, which is what you'll find elsewhere. Barba's comeback makes this one the most hyped game of the year. Regardless I have this one sailing over the line.

Good luck.

Yesterday: -5 units -$250
NRL Season Record: 10-8
-6.7 units -$335

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-28-13, 06:31 PM

I like it, probably not for 5 units though....

Barba back is worth at least 2 tries for the Dogs. Pritchard is also back, giving the Dogs a little bit more danger on the edges of the ruck.

Rabbitohs off a short week, after playing in extreme heat - look for a fadeout in the last 15-20 mins of the game as fatigue sets in.

Time of last try 76th minute or later @ $2.00

MrXYZ · 03-28-13, 10:05 PM

Look out for Souths to pressure Barba all day kicking high balls. If there's an UNDER worth playing today it's the Storm/Broncos, not this game. I exptect to go off for 44+ points.

the tross · 03-29-13, 12:03 AM

I like the over. Im on it too. GL mate.

davopnz · 03-29-13, 12:56 AM

grr hack fest game

MrXYZ · 03-29-13, 01:01 AM

Here comes the burial part 2.
Half time play:
Game Total OVER 30.5 @ 2.00 x5

MrXYZ · 03-29-13, 01:49 AM

My last play ever. I'm done with the NRL after this.

Here comes the burial part 3:

MELBOURNE STORM vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Game Total OVER 36.5 @1.95 @1.95 x 11

ExodusNZ · 03-29-13, 01:51 AM

I hope these arent real bets.

Bad beats happen all the time. But too much tilt?

hawley · 03-29-13, 01:57 AM

I don't like that over at all but will hoping it hits for you pal.

dRavidC · 03-29-13, 03:18 AM

wow that's crazy !!!

as much as I want you u win ur money back, i am liking the under

davopnz · 03-29-13, 03:36 AM

is your brain hardwired for overs lol? also liking the under here

drektaga123 · 03-29-13, 04:27 AM

i had a feeling storm could come close to covering this total on there own... so i went on there team totals over 21.5 @ 1.72 for 300$

ExodusNZ · 03-29-13, 04:54 AM

The over is looking good

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-29-13, 05:25 AM

Cash it!!!!!!

MrXYZ · 03-29-13, 06:28 AM

Final Score: Storm defeat the Broncos 32-26.

Winner!!

Today: 1-2 +0.45 units +$22.50
NRL Season Record: 11-10 -6.25 units -$335

MrXYZ · 03-29-13, 09:54 PM

CRONULLA SHARKS vs ST GEORGE DRAGONS
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.90 x 3.5

Have this one at 36. Rolling with the OVER for 3.5 units.

This thread may have become a joke to everyone but I'm still capping games with my usual system. The struggle this year has been money management. It's gone off the rails. Note that my NRL unit size is $50 so it's not like I'm risking enormous amounts each play.

Thanks for everyone dropping by with comments. In typical SBR fashion, even though I've been cashing NRL winners for 2+ years, the thread gets the most traffic when I'm getting buried.

Tail or fade, good luck.

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-29-13, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

Time of last try 76th minute or later @ $2.00

Hope you jumped on mate!

Good luck with the over in the derby....

MrXYZ · 03-30-13, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by Tim Gerry Mander

Hope you jumped on mate!

Good luck with the over in the derby....

Thanks! Nice hit.

the tross · 03-30-13, 02:23 AM

Why do i keep tailing the plays that are losers lol. sharks line and overs for me.

Doesnt bother me if you lose.At least you got the balls to go for big plays. goodluck man.

MrXYZ · 03-30-13, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by davopnz

is your brain hardwired for overs lol? also liking the under here

Yeah, looks like it, definitely biased towards the over this season! But seriously, there's a good reason. The books haven't adjusted upwards yet - we're getting value plays on teams like Parramatta, Souths, Storm & Penrith. The NRL is played at breakneck speed these days & that means we're seeing a flurry of points in the last 10 minutes. Look at least year's stats, you'll be surprised.

As long as the books put out a soft totals I'll keep taking overs. In Round 3, Parra/Tigers & Souths/Penrith were the easiest money makers I've ever seen in the NRL.

Domestic · 03-30-13, 03:29 AM

I'm with you on the over, these two teams have got to be involved in a non-low scoring game eventually. Hopefully it's tonight.

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-30-13, 04:44 AM

Soward's conversion from the sideline might just get you the bikkies.

12 points in 30 mins

ExodusNZ · 03-30-13, 05:04 AM

Woohoo!!

I bet from my phone this afternoon and it some how doubled bet - Double glad it cashed now

Tim Gerry Mander · 03-30-13, 05:04 AM

Boom- Soward nails another from out wide to cash the overs!!!

Domestic · 03-30-13, 05:04 AM

6/6 Conversions.

MrXYZ · 03-30-13, 06:18 AM

Soward on fire tonight. Cash that winner!

MrXYZ · 03-30-13, 07:50 AM

Outstanding game by the Dragons, winning 25-12 to cash the over. Their most impressive effort had shades of their glory days back in 2010.

F*kn awesome to see some of you guys were on this play!

Today: 1-0 +3.15 units +$157.50
NRL Season Record: 12-10 -3.1 units -$155

MrXYZ · 03-30-13, 08:43 PM

PENRITH PANTHERS vs GOLD COAST TITANS
Game Total UNDER 43.5 @1.90 x1

A tough call. Titans have proven to be one of the best defensive teams in the NRL. Here they come up against the Panthers, who got shredded by Souths last week to cash the over. I don't see more than 40 points being scored today. But it could be another 50+ scorefest so just the 1 unit at risk.

Good luck.

MrXYZ · 03-30-13, 11:58 PM

Great start with the Titans leading 12-0 at half time. Even though it's looking safe, I'm expecting a high scoring finish & with the 43.5 UNDER in the bag, there's nothing to lose, so gonna try to middle it:

Game Total OVER 32.5 @2.00 x1 (actual number is 1.98 but to keep things simple rounding it up)

Found this at Sportsbet. Other books have 33.5. Still worth a shot. 22 points in the 2nd half sounds like a lot but it's very possible.