MrXYZ's NRL thread

[Domestic]

Cash the Canberrra game, good stuff.

[s2230011]

Well done.. Not sure how the under hit. At least six or seven butchered tries in the second half. Detroit +10.5 somehow lost too, incredible

[benrama]

One your way guys! Game could have had 50 points - by Titans alone - but given the rotten luck in other games you were due. How bad are the Raiders? In total disarray at the moment.

[hawley]

I had the over.

And the over on thursday night.

[benrama]

Totals are too unpredictable in the early rounds, I think no one has an edge on them. I've only played one so far (Brisbane/Storm) and even that could have gone either way.

Get on the Eagles for this evening Hawley, this is the best play of the day!

[Domestic]

Nice work mate, 2 from 2.

[sonofben]

Totals are too unpredictable in the early rounds, I think no one has an edge on them. I've only played one so far (Brisbane/Storm) and even that could have gone either way.

Get on the Eagles for this evening Hawley, this is the best play of the day!

For sure. Eagles -3.5 and OVER 36.5 points!

[ExodusNZ]

For sure. Eagles -3.5 and OVER 36.5 points!

Hope so, have a huge play on the spread

[MrXYZ]

One more play. Lets go for the sweep:

MANLY SEA EAGLES vs NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Game Total UNDER 38.0 @1.90 x1.5

Accidentally posted on TG's thread.

[MrXYZ]

3 for 3.



Let's cash the Manly/Knights play & call it a day!

[Domestic]

3 for 3.



Let's cash the Manly/Knights play & call it a day!

[benrama]

Good work mate! You should have had 20X on each and you'd be up nearly 50 units on the season

Onto MNF, Sharks faded bad last week, it's Souths or nothing tomorrow ...

[MrXYZ]

Good work mate! You should have had 20X on each and you'd be up nearly 50 units on the season

Onto MNF, Sharks faded bad last week, it's Souths or nothing tomorrow ...

Thanks, should've parlayed them as well.

10 points is a lot to cover but Souths should do it easily.

[MrXYZ]

Nice work mate, 2 from 2.

Thanks bro.

[MrXYZ]

SOUTH SYDNEY RABITTOHS vs CRONULLA SHARKS
Game Total UNDER 40.5 @1.90 x2.5

Got this one set at 38.5 so for me it's worth a shot. South's demolition of the Roosters last week has inflated the line IMO. Cronulla's only hope is to impose their brand of grind-out footy to keep the game from getting away.

Meanwhile South's defense is one of the best in the league. However they're more than capable of scoring 3 tries in 10 minutes so under backers will be sweating this one out until the final siren.

Good luck.

[benrama]

Been eyeing that under too, if wasn't MNF it would be an auto play.

I think this is the week Sharks get their reality check, and potential a flogging. The main risk I think is they drop their effort if they go behind.

[MrXYZ]

Ideally the Sharks keep it close, but yeah it's MNF & the Bunnies could roll them for 40 points.

We'll have to wait & see how the loss of Dave Taylor impacts them until they face a better team.

[MrXYZ]

Buying out. This one's going over.

Half time play:
Game Total OVER 39.5 @1.80 x2.5

[s2230011]

I'm on the over and nervous bout this. I got lucky with the over 19.5 at HT

[ExodusNZ]

Just signed up with sportsbet au today and they dont let you make live plays!! (unless you call) - Silly law!

[MrXYZ]

It's a stupid law, they should get rid of it. Would make life a lot easier.

[MrXYZ]

Should've held off. But no regrets, this should've been no bigger than a 1 unit play to begin with.

[Domestic]

It's a stupid law, they should get rid of it. Would make life a lot easier.

Was some encouraging news last year that basically suggested it is only a matter of time, looking forward to it.
Edit: Did not realize you took over at HT. BoL

[ExodusNZ]

Here comes the points for the over!

[MrXYZ]

1-1 for the night & a small loss. But the main thing was to get myself back to single digits - had it gone over it would've cost me half of yesterday's profits.

[Coopertrooper]

Unlucky there, I was a bit nervous about the under at half time, but in the end it covered quite easily in an entertaining match.

Just RE the live internet betting laws - it is certainly a pain, but there have been mixed signals about it's future. The anti-gambling lobby is looking like it'll slow gambling here longer-term, but hopefully in the short-term it will allow live betting and keep it that way, even if they try to shut some areas down (particularly the pokies).

[MrXYZ]

Survived a terrible Round 2 to salvage hope for the season. I'm very confident of getting back on track and profitable within a couple of weeks.


Thanks everyone for dropping by with comments. Hope some of you guys cashed the perfect sweep yesterday.

NRL Season Record: 4-5 -8.4 units -$420

[the tross]

Congrats on the comeback. Liked all those picks for the sweep but a lack of self control on my part cost me any of tailing . Goodluck bro for round 3.

[MrXYZ]

Congrats on the comeback. Liked all those picks for the sweep but a lack of self control on my part cost me any of tailing . Goodluck bro for round 3.

Thanks! Lining up a big play for tomorrow's game, depends on what numbers get posted. Lol not sure having NRL 4 nights a week is a good thing.

[benrama]

I sense we are all going to be on the under ...

[MrXYZ]

MELBOURNE STORM vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 34.5 @1.85 x4

The Storm are lethal right now. They destroyed the Cowboys on the road last week and now the books are baiting punters to take the Bulldogs +10.5. So much for the Grand Final rematch.

I was expecting this total to open higher, in fact TAB has 36.5 which is just about right. Therefore I'm jumping on Sportsbet's 34.5 while I can, they're way off. Rain is expected to clear in time for kick-off. 36.5 is a key psychological number that will scare people off. When other books open with that number, "sharps," public, whatever may drive it down to 35.5 but I don't care, this one is going over.

Good luck, for me 4 units is pushing it, if you want to take a shot at hitting the over at 36.5 manage your risk carefully.

[the tross]

i'll be honest with you Mr XYZ, i dont know where the points are gonna come from for the dogs.Four quality players missing and no points scored in two second halfs now. Im leaning under but took Dogs under -11.5 total points scored for 1 unit @ 2.12. As a bulldog fan ,i should be hung drawn and quartered but so be it. Bol

[Tim Gerry Mander]

That's a bold play mate.

All 3 games last year were way under this total.

Round 7 - Storm 12 - 6 Bulldogs
Round 16 - Bulldogs 20 - 4 Storm
Grand Final - Storm 14 - 4 Bulldogs

The Bulldogs are copping some cheap points in games, but they muscled up in the second half last week and shut the Eels out of the game.

The Storm are on fire at the moment, but they've been up since the World Club Challenge and they are on the end of a huge road trip.

Without Barba, I can't see the Dogs being able to outscore the Storm in a shoot-out, so I expect them to adopt a similar game-plan to the second half last week, expecting to grind out a result - watch for kicks to find touch or go over the dead-ball line to chew up the clock and keep Slater away from the ball.

A few emotional factors on the Bulldogs side, with the obvious being revenge for the GF loss.
The other is the immediate forced retirement due to injuries of Steve Turner who used to play for the Storm before joining the Bulldogs.

Do the Dogs have enough points in them to win? Not sure, but 10.5 is a massive start, considering the Storm were giving the Dragons the same start in Round 1 and the Bulldogs are a way better team than the Dragons.

Also both kickers are prone to missing gettable shots at goal, which could hurt the over in a tight game where points are at a premium.

Good Luck buddy, but I'd only be playing this for a max of 2 units at this early stage of the season.

[MrXYZ]

Thanks for the insights TGM.

[MrXYZ]

Seems like the board is on the UNDER. My only advice is to be wary of following the trend in low scoring games between Storm & Bulldogs.

Good luck tonight.