MrXYZ's NRL thread

[MrXYZ]

AFL Grand Final
SYDNEY SWANS vs HAWTHORN HAWKS
HAWKS ML @1.55 x2

Been following the AFL & it's the Grand Final so I gotta have some action on this one! Hawks should quite easily, though desperation from the Swans could see them covering. Good luck today.

[MrXYZ]

Lol. Go Swans.

[MrXYZ]

What a thriller! Well deserved win by the Swans. I got my money back thanks to Centrebet's "Franklin to score 3 goals" promotion, so no probs.

[Duff85]

Offering the Storm for SBR Points:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/sbr-points/1925708-nrl-grand-final-you-get-melbourne-pk-120-a.html#post16188268

[MrXYZ]

NRL Grand Final
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs MELBOURNE STORM
STORM -1.0 @1.92 x1

The biggest game of the year sees the NRL's 2 best teams fighting it out for the trophy, making it a virtual coin toss. However I'm rolling with the Storm. They've been a class above everyone else so far & their experience will make a difference today. It could be decided by a dropped ball or moment of brilliance so manage your risk carefully today. Let's see if we can end the season with a winner!

2012 NRL season record: 64-63
+38.30 units $1915.00 Unit size is $50.

[MrXYZ]

NRL Grand Final
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS vs MELBOURNE STORM
STORM -1.0 @1.92 x1
The biggest game of the year sees the NRL's 2 best teams fighting it out for the trophy, making it a virtual coin toss. However I'm rolling with the Storm. They've been a class above everyone else so far & their experience will make a difference today. It could be decided by a dropped ball or moment of brilliance so manage your risk carefully today. Let's see if we can end the season with a winner!

MELBOURNE STORM: 2012 NRL CHAMPIONS

Cash that winner! Storm just too good today, 14-4. A fantastic game closes out the season!

1-0 +0.92 units $46
2012 NRL season record: 65-63
+39.22 units $1961.00 Unit size is $50.

[That Guy]

Good work mate!
Hope you come back for some NBL action

[MrXYZ]

NRL 2013

After 2 documented winning seasons I'm back again for more. This season I'll be picking my spots carefully - had a good look at my records & it's been a case of pushing for winners and losing money on games that I should've left alone.

It's going to be tough, I'm seeing more parity this year and sharper lines from the books. The huge win by Manly was the 1st public burial of the year. Everything pointed to Broncos covering the -4 and the over.

Let's get started:

ROUND 1
Saturday
PARRAMATTA EELS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Game Total OVER 41.5 @1.90 x2

Opening round nerves could derail it, but with a scorefest waiting to happen, the over should hit the bank by the 70th minute.

Thanks to everyone who's dropped by my thread & offered support. Good luck, let's cash some winners & as always manage your risk carefully.

[benrama]

BOL for the season mate! Agree that books seem to be sharpening up their lines, though I think TG is right that totals still provide a market inefficiency.

Don't like any overs for round 1 but agree that this one has as good a chance as any. Will be cheering for points either way, should be an interesting season for the Eels.

[garygroundwork]

NRL 2013

After 2 documented winning seasons I'm back again for more. This season I'll be picking my spots carefully - had a good look at my records & it's been a case of pushing for winners and losing money on games that I should've left alone.

It's going to be tough, I'm seeing more parity this year and sharper lines from the books. The huge win by Manly was the 1st public burial of the year. Everything pointed to Broncos covering the -4 and the over.

Let's get started:

ROUND 1
Saturday
PARRAMATTA EELS vs NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Game Total OVER 41.5 @1.90 x2

Opening round nerves could derail it, but with a scorefest waiting to happen, the over should hit the bank by the 70th minute.

Thanks to everyone who's dropped by my thread & offered support. Good luck, let's cash some winners & as always manage your risk carefully.

yep... thats the hardest part especially after a few wins....thats a key discipline to get right in this game...

good luck this year mate

[MrXYZ]

Thanks fellas, so much to look forward to in this game, both teams have a lot to prove & it's always good to see Hayne back in action.

[ExodusNZ]

Very nice second half - The warriors were useless tonight

[MrXYZ]

cash the easy winner!

[hedgejob]

Are we about to see a run of overs?

[hawley]

Are we about to see a run of overs?

Don't know about tomorrows games.

Can see both the Titans and the Dragons really struggling to score.

[garygroundwork]

couldnt believe the dogs cowboys went under after that first half

[MrXYZ]

couldnt believe the dogs cowboys went under after that first half

WTF they only managed to score one try in 40 minutes! Just relieved I passed on this one. Strangely enough we saw a similar situation in a Bulldogs & Cowboys game last year.

[MrXYZ]

Monday Night Football
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS vs WESTS TIGERS
Game Total UNDER 39.5 @1.90 x2

Excellent value by Centrebet. They're a full point off what I've seen elsewhere.

Although this one should land at 38, Benji is always a threat to bury unders. However we should expect solid defensive efforts & a few spilled balls to edge this one home.

38.5 is worth a play, 38 if you're brave has a shot as well. Note that getting the best number possible is vital in the NRL & even then, anything could happen.

Good luck & let's close out the round with a win.

[MrXYZ]

Here comes the burial.

[MrXYZ]

NRL Round 1
1-1 -0.20 units

One of the worst games I've ever seen from the Tigers. Just angry at myself for getting too confident on this play and ignoring my doubts about it.

Round 1 & I've already displayed a complete lack of discipline. Had a tough beat in the NBA & it influenced this play.

I've had much worse days but this one has hit my confidence. Should've passed but like an idiot I took the bait & paid the price.

But no excuses for getting this one totally wrong.

[s2230011]

The Tigers were disgraceful, not sure where that leaves Newcastle.

I was looking at last years data and saw that the most "OVER" (and only) timeslot in the NRL is Monday football it went 16-8

[s2230011]

Did anyone else thinks that there were some very soft penalties given away last night ?

[MrXYZ]

The Tigers were disgraceful, not sure where that leaves Newcastle.

I was looking at last years data and saw that the most "OVER" (and only) timeslot in the NRL is Monday football it went 16-8

Very interesting. Another trend I'm hoping carries over from last season is Parramatta overs.

[s2230011]

Well I think that the Tigers, Canberra and Warriors were horrible on the weekend. So there is potential for Newcastle , Eels and Penrith to be overvalued this weekend.

Its now rocket science but I think there is a strong relationship between penalties blown and totals. Everyone knows a large % of tries are scored off the back of the penalty. So I guess the next question would be whether the biggest influence in Penalties blown is the team or the ref. I looked at the ref assignments this week and the refs are paired up in the same combinations as last week, hopefully that continues.

I think there were 4 overs and 4 unders on the weekend. I would say that the Cowboys game really should have gone well over and the Panthers game should have gone comfortably under. The roosters game was another iffy one that could have easily gone over.

Penalties blown for each game this week:
Dogs Cowboys :18
Knights Tigers : 16
Eels Warriors :15
Roosters Rabbits: 13
Penrith Canberra : 13
Storm Dragons : 12
Broncos Manly: 12
Sharks Titans: 9

Obviously the bizzare endings in the two games I mentioned stuffed things around a little but as everyone on this forum says, thats variance !

Now back to the point of this ... both the Dogs and Eels were involved in above average penalties blown games on the weekend(18 and 15). But the refs for the game are Hayne and Shortfall blew a below average penalty count @ 12.

What does this all mean ?! I dont know ... =0)

Food for thought

[MrXYZ]

NRL Round 2
Thursday Night Football
PARRAMATTA EELS vs CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Game Total OVER 40.5 @1.90 x5

A big play for me but worth the risk as the books are way off offering anything less than 42.5 for this game. Thanks to the Bulldogs poor effort against the Cowboys, we are getting an absolute bargain. Found 40.5 at Sportsbet. TAB has 41.5. No difference in the end, this one has over written all over it.

As always manage your bankroll carefully. The NRL has already buried several punters and will do so again this week.

Good luck.

[hawley]

Dropping the hammer!

GL bro..

[ExodusNZ]

GL - TAB/Pinnacle have put the totals up/have taken them down - Must of had some heavy action so it was withdrawn last night?

[MrXYZ]

Thanks guys.

Ben Barba's out of rehab. Though he won't play this week, he met up with the team yesterday. A huge morale boost for the Bulldogs.

[That Guy]

GL bro and welcome back for the season!
may we both cash the over tonight

[abzflabz]

i got Parra Eels Moneyline, bulldogs missing some key players and dont have the playmakers to make up the difference.

[Bazz27]

sportsbet now @39.5pts am i missing something here ??

[MrXYZ]

GL bro and welcome back for the season!
may we both cash the over tonight

Thanks for stopping by TG. Let's kick off Round 2 with a winner!

[MrXYZ]

sportsbet now @39.5pts am i missing something here ??

Bulldogs have players out & the possibility of rain is my guess for the drop. Not worried though. Good luck with how you decide to play the total.

[Bazz27]

1/Unit on sando 0/6pts @1.80

[MrXYZ]

i got Parra Eels Moneyline, bulldogs missing some key players and dont have the playmakers to make up the difference.

Good luck tonight. I'm leaning Parra as well but sticking with the total.