Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

[rkelly110]

3 +PL @1.45 and over games tonight.

NBA big dog is Cleveland +PS

NCAAB +13 @ home is Marist

GL. Hope we have a night like last night!

[Axis]

some nights had more than 1 play if I couldn't easily distinguish a single dog. it's an area of immaturity for the system... and maybe the guy who's running it.

Haha it's all good...I went simply by the highest ending line.

[chizzy]

Haha it's all good...I went simply by the highest ending line.

ive been playing it on highest opening line. can you look into whether that has any effect on the number of wins?

[rkelly110]

Big dog NHL Edmonton lost.

2 of 3 +PL @ 1.45 and over won

Cleveland lost as did Marist x.5 arg!

[bombCanada]

Devils this afternoon (1 EST!). By all rights the Flyers should destroy them, but you never know!

[rkelly110]

At press time, there are 7 +PL 1.45 and above games today. I'm on 'em.

Come on Devils!

Big dog in NFL today is Seattle. I'm going a unit after buying a couple of points.
2 big dogs in NBA, they are under 5-1 ML though. Indiana and Memphis.
Didn't see any +13 @ home dogs for boy bb.

GL guys.

[bombCanada]

Devils lose 2-1 but cover on the PL. Kick ass !

[rkelly110]

Alright! I bet the other early game, Islanders +PL as they are a 1.45 pick and
winning SU 3-2 at the moment. I think I'll quit while I'm ahead.

[chizzy]

Ive been playing every single one of these plays SU and its going really well.i love this sytem, and on labby it is gold.

[rkelly110]

Way to go chizzy, glad you're kicking butt.

Speaking of kicking butt, 6 of 7 86% on the over 1.45 system!
4 of the 7 went SU.

How 'bout Seattle kicking butt! That 5 and over ML system kicked ass this year.
Too bad we thought of it late. 14 of 20 70%

[bombCanada]

Way to go chizzy, glad you're kicking butt.

Speaking of kicking butt, 6 of 7 86% on the over 1.45 system!
4 of the 7 went SU.

How 'bout Seattle kicking butt! That 5 and over ML system kicked ass this year.
Too bad we thought of it late. 14 of 20 70%

Nice work on the over 1.45 system sir. Very nice work.

And boy was the Seattle game exciting. Great to watch even though I didn't have a dog in the hunt.

I've had my fill of NFL wagering, although the appeal of huge underdogs is always, well, huge. Life feels full enough with hockey and basketball. Now that we've got hockey in a groove, I'd like to start thinking about what we'll do with baseball, which of course was how this whole thread started.

[bombCanada]

Big Dog NHL play-o-de-day is our old pals the Islanders at Chicago.

[rkelly110]

Our favorite dog is playing today, Islanders and after capping, looks really good for SU.

How's your NBA working out? Doing the biggest dog?

I'll need an afternoon to go back and look at Baseball for the big dogs and +1.45
and over plays. I have print outs of all. Anything else to look for?

[bombCanada]

NBA big dog as of yesterday is 35-32 on the season, +15 units. The last time it cleared a line was 12/28, when it was 31-27 for +20 units. Not setting the world on fire, but profit is profit.

I'm also running Lab lines on teams which have good records ATS. ML stats are something I've completely ignored so far mostly out of time constraints.

A few systems on MLB have been run here and elsewhere (covers) over the years, and those are something I want to read htrough and figure out how to make my own.

Today I'm too busy watching football. No money on the line, just love the sport.

[bombCanada]

Well, commercial time, can't help myself, think about this stuff all the time... Here are some things I think we need to take into account in looking for a system:

1) AL and NL are different cats because of the DH. Might do well to look at the biggest fave and biggest dog in each league every day
2) inter-league play during the regular season is an unnatural act and should by rule be excluded from any system.
3) whereas the PL favors dogs tremendously in NHL, not so in MLB, where tie games can be won by 1, 2, 3, or 4 runs. That would seem to favor favorites, though I have no proof of that and could be all wet.
3a) home team wins after regulation ties are essentially sudden death. away team wins after regulation ties are not.
4) one angle I recall from some system somewhere was playing the favorite up to -150 (-170?) ML and then playing the fave on RL as a juice-reduction mechanism.

[rkelly110]

I wrote up a system for MLB using +RL lower than ML odds of opposite team.
Using the above, kicked ass in the playoffs and WS.
Away +RL hit around 60%, home +RL hit about 54%. Using the +RL as a guide
to pick dogs was around 50%. Will have to check different leagues.

Now, onto the biggest dog.......

Get 'em KC!

[bombCanada]

sorry about KC, rkelly... game seemed closer than the score would indicate...

[bombCanada]

I wrote up a system for MLB using +RL lower than ML odds of opposite team.
Using the above, kicked ass in the playoffs and WS.
Away +RL hit around 60%, home +RL hit about 54%. Using the +RL as a guide
to pick dogs was around 50%. Will have to check different leagues.

Now, onto the biggest dog.......

Get 'em KC!

I guess I should add to my thoughts above that any system for MLB starts 2 weeks after the beginning of the regular season and ends on Sept 1... But I find your take intriguing.

[rkelly110]

Just got done doing Sept. Sorry didn't break it down to NL/AL or home/ away.

Big dog SU is 9 of 34 26%. Big dog on +RL is 17 of 34 50%. Longest losing streak 3, twice.
Longest winning streak 6, once.
Betting against the big dog on the -RL is 17 of 34 50%. Longest losing streak 6, once.
Longest winning streak 7 once.

My system, +RL fav. is 152 of 224 68%

Using +RL fav. betting dogs is 112 of 224 50%.

Play offs, Big dog SU is 10 of 19 53%. +RL 12 of 19 63%.
+RL fav 11 of 13 85%

World Series, dog won SU 3 of 4 75%.

Now onto Aug.

[spargament]

Our favorite dog is playing today, Islanders and after capping, looks really good for SU.

How's your NBA working out? Doing the biggest dog?

I'll need an afternoon to go back and look at Baseball for the big dogs and +1.45
and over plays. I have print outs of all. Anything else to look for?

islanders baby..im just scared of a trap, but im in.

[rkelly110]

Just got done doing Sept. Sorry didn't break it down to NL/AL or home/ away.

Big dog SU is 9 of 34 26%. Big dog on +RL is 17 of 34 50%. Longest losing streak 3, twice.

My system, +RL fav. is 152 of 224 68%

Using +RL fav. betting dogs is 112 of 224 50%.

Play offs, Big dog SU is 10 of 19 53%. +RL 12 of 19 63%.
+RL fav 11 of 13 85%

World Series, dog won SU 3 of 4 75%.

Now onto Aug.

August MLB.

Big dog SU is 13 of 35 37%. Big dog on +RL is 16 of 35 46% Longest losing
streak 5, 2 long winning streaks of 5.

+RL fav is 132 of 198 67% (a lot of games per day)
+RL fav to pick dogs 100 of 198 50% (a lot of games per day)

I guess I have to go back and check -RL against the big dog, don't I.

Aug. -RL against the big dog of the day, is 18 of 35 51%
Longest losing streak 3, one time. Longest winning streak 4, one time.

I'm getting cross eyed, time to quit. What I've been checking is falling
in line with my system I wrote up. Betting against the big dogs on -RL
is hitting at 50% so far. Good for a labby? I would say yes because,
the -RL will carry better odds. Thoughts?

[chizzy]

August MLB. Big dog SU is 13 of 35 37%. Big dog on +RL is 16 of 35 46% Longest losing streak 5, 2 long winning streaks of 5. +RL fav is 132 of 198 67% (a lot of games per day) +RL fav to pick dogs 100 of 198 50% (a lot of games per day) I guess I have to go back and check -RL against the big dog, don't I. Aug. -RL against the big dog of the day, is 18 of 35 51% Longest losing streak 3, one time. Longest winning streak 4, one time. I'm getting cross eyed, time to quit. What I've been checking is falling in line with my system I wrote up. Betting against the big dogs on -RL is hitting at 50% so far. Good for a labby? I would say yes because, the -RL will carry better odds. Thoughts?

I agree, your usually looking at + odds for the -RL arent you?
Also there looks to be some Labby value in playing the +RL fav and playing them straight up, dont you think?

[rkelly110]

I agree, your usually looking at + odds for the -RL arent you?
Also there looks to be some Labby value in playing the +RL fav and playing them straight up, dont you think?

Yes chizzy, there's a few options for labbys and just flat betting.

Big dog on +RL 50% (lesser value, odds about 1.5) to win 1 unit.

Bet against the big dog on -RL 50% (better value, most odds over 2) bet 1 unit.

Using the +RL fav to pick the daily dogs is hitting around 50% for the month.
There were 14 losing days in Aug. 8 in a row.

[bombCanada]

NHL big dog for tonight is Toronto.

[bombCanada]

And... Toronto wins straight up.

[bombCanada]

duplicate post deleted.

[bombCanada]

From a blog on covers, seems promising for Lab lines...


It's the highest odds dog of the night that is at least +150. also track the +200 or higher only. standard 1 unit bet. IF their is NO team at least +150, then it's a "no bet" night.

I just have the last three years plus this season so far because my old "Dell from Hell" laptop blew up and took another 5 years of info with it to the grave.

2007-08 +150 or higher 66-103 +21.90 +200 or higher 20-31 +15.60

2008-09 +150 or higher 46-111 +0.45 +200 or higher 28-63 +5.75

2009-10 +150 or higher 49-102 -6.40 +200 or higher 23-44 +4.40

ytd 2010-2011 +150 or higher 20-28 +7.60 +200 or higher 4-9 -0.35

2009-10 was a +150 loser because the favs completely ran over the game 2nd half of the season BUT the +200 still squeeked out a profit.

[rkelly110]

Wat to go Toronto! Chaulk one up for the 1.45 system also. So far this year, the 1.45
is 15 of 23 65%.

Man, trying to clear lines is painfully slow and I only have 4# lines.
I only cleared one line in NHL since the 1st of the year. It does mix up my bets. If one
line loses, one of the other line bets win. So, I either win for the day or lose small.

Looks like he was betting dog ML's. Those are bad units to be won for a whole season.

I will continue back testing MLB month by month when I get a chance.

[jnsbanman]

From a blog on covers, seems promising for Lab lines...


It's the highest odds dog of the night that is at least +150. also track the +200 or higher only. standard 1 unit bet. IF their is NO team at least +150, then it's a "no bet" night.

I just have the last three years plus this season so far because my old "Dell from Hell" laptop blew up and took another 5 years of info with it to the grave.

2007-08 +150 or higher 66-103 +21.90 +200 or higher 20-31 +15.60

2008-09 +150 or higher 46-111 +0.45 +200 or higher 28-63 +5.75

2009-10 +150 or higher 49-102 -6.40 +200 or higher 23-44 +4.40

ytd 2010-2011 +150 or higher 20-28 +7.60 +200 or higher 4-9 -0.35

2009-10 was a +150 loser because the favs completely ran over the game 2nd half of the season BUT the +200 still squeeked out a profit.

If I understand this correctly this referring to betting money line on dogs that are at least +150?

[bombCanada]

Wat to go Toronto! Chaulk one up for the 1.45 system also. So far this year, the 1.45
is 15 of 23 65%.

Man, trying to clear lines is painfully slow and I only have 4# lines.
I only cleared one line in NHL since the 1st of the year. It does mix up my bets. If one
line loses, one of the other line bets win. So, I either win for the day or lose small.

Looks like he was betting dog ML's. Those are bad units to be won for a whole season.

I will continue back testing MLB month by month when I get a chance.

You mean this year as in 2011, not as in the season, right?

Sometimes lines take time to clear... but think about it. No one ever blew out on small losses. And the only way you're ever going to win big is to take wild chances, which probably means you'll blow out.

And another thing to wrap your mind around... chances are pretty good that the only time your account balance will hit a new high is the same time as you clear a line. That means that most of the time, your account is pulling back from a new high... if you graphed your account balance, it'd look like the cable on a suspension bridge going up a hill: swinging up, swinging down, swinging up and higher then before, then down, then up higher, etc. The psychology of it all is really painful if you're in this for the adrenaline. I don't care all that much about hockey, tho I enjoy watching it, and I dislike basketball, but I still wager it... both seasons have LOTS of games, and winning with Lab lines is about discipline over a long period of time. Stick with it. Get your emotion out and get your brain in. Dedicate to improving your personal game. Think of it as a job, but remember what Fast Eddie Felson said in The Color of Money: "Money won is twice as sweet a money earned."

As to the record for the dog ML betting... that's flat betting. Remember that all you need to do to win is find a system which is doing 34% at even money and then apply Lab lines... and if we're talking dogs, we're talking fewer wins but more $$ per win.

Try it out.

[bombCanada]

If I understand this correctly this referring to betting money line on dogs that are at least +150?

You understand.

[rkelly110]

Thanks for the pep talk BC. Yes, I'm disiplined and lab lines are making me more patient.
Yes, I meant this year, 2011. I only started lab lines since the 1st of the year.

Here's July MLB.

Big dog SU 9 of 31 29%. Big dog +RL 15 of 31 48%.

Betting against big dog on -RL 16 of 31 52%

+RL fav 102 of 187 54%. +RL dogs 70 of 187 37%

3 months so far betting against the biggest dog -RL is 51 of 100 51%.
+RL on biggest dog is 48 of 100 48%.

[bombCanada]

NHL big doggy tonight is Toronto and Edmonton. I can't pick just one. half-wager on each. good luck!

[rkelly110]

According to SBR's odds, Edmonton's the play. Toronto won for us last night but, like the
Islanders did the other night, the B2B got us.

4 +PL @ 1.45 and over games tonight.

GL

[rkelly110]

Wow, B2B SU wins for Toronto being the big dog. Edmonton wins with the PL.
Islanders come through on the the PL.

3 of 4 +PL 1.45 and over.

Cleared another line. Life is good.