Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

[El_Pateaux]

Ok I'm new to this thread so I just want to clarify:

Big Dog System:
You just bet the ML of the biggest NHL dog of the day.
Today that's a 3 way tie between the Oilers, Maple Leafs, and Islanders at 2.75.

1.45 system:
You bet any PL of a dog with odds of 1.45 or higher that ISNT a Big Dog from above
Today, that's the Canadiens and the Wild.

So, 5 plays between these two systems today. Is that correct? Can someone tell me where I'm going wrong if this isn't correct?

Thanks!

[bombCanada]

Big Dog NHL is as mentioned a 3 teamer today... NYI, TOR, and EDM. 1/3 normal wager on each.

El_P, you're as close as you can get. One thing we need to do toward the end of the season is turn this all into a coherent set of rules. Right now I think we're still winging it, although we're pretty consistent about how we do it.

[rkelly110]

The big dog system is, bet the biggest ML dog on the +PL only. Your choice to bet the ML.

Bet ALL +PL @ 1.45 and over including the biggest dogs, if you want more hockey action.

[rkelly110]

Sorry everyone, I got my numbers mixed up on the NBA Cleveland game.
I thought it said 13.00, it's at 31.00. I don't have info on odds that high.
The public is all over the PS and ML, be careful.

GL

[easywinner]

Big Dog NHL is as mentioned a 3 teamer today... NYI, TOR, and EDM. 1/3 normal wager on each.

El_P, you're as close as you can get. One thing we need to do toward the end of the season is turn this all into a coherent set of rules. Right now I think we're still winging it, although we're pretty consistent about how we do it.

Hey I'm just curious do you ever check out who the public is one in correlation to the system plays? I just happened to check it out today and in the NYI game 4% of the public is on the +PL with them, in the TOR game 1% of the public is with them on the PL and in the EDM game 3% of the public is with them. On ML less than 33% of people are with any of those teams, 2 of them were in the 20's % and one was at 33%. Do you find these number intriguing at all? Do you think that maybe this could have something to do with game outcomes? I've always wondered about stuff like that, lol.

[oklahoma]

isles are a loss, the games arent looking to good today...

[rkelly110]

Funny you should ask. I've been keeping track of public percents in NBA and NHL.

I don't know where you got those percents from, but I've never seen them that low.
SBR's live odds is where I look.

Anyway, I've been keeping track of ML/PL, highest percents for NHL. I don't have
the totals, but from memory, NHL does better with the higher percent of the public,
than the NBA.

I don't have a large sample size, just from the beginning of this month. Just something
else I track on my daily printouts. I track about 8 different things on my printouts.
I would have to go back and see what's up.

With the amount of success we are having, do we really want to know?
That's why we like these systems, they're simple. No capping skills and takes
less that a minute to implement.

If there's anything significant that I find, I'll let you know.

[rkelly110]

Islanders won on PL, oklahoma.

Cleveland won on PS if you bought 1 1/2 points. Boston beat them by 17.

[oklahoma]

i had isles moneyline. if a play qualifies for the 1.45 system do you still take the ml as well since its the biggest dog or do you layoff the ml and bet just the pl? i counted 5 +pl games over 1.45 today. did you play all of those as well as the 3 way ml? or maybe its best to take the +pl odds if theres more than 1 big dog on a given day.

on the cleveland cash. i originally picked them at +18 when it opened.

[bombCanada]

EDM win outright, NYI cover, and TOR lose by 2. 2 outa 3 ain't bad!

[bombCanada]

Hey I'm just curious do you ever check out who the public is one in correlation to the system plays? I just happened to check it out today and in the NYI game 4% of the public is on the +PL with them, in the TOR game 1% of the public is with them on the PL and in the EDM game 3% of the public is with them. On ML less than 33% of people are with any of those teams, 2 of them were in the 20's % and one was at 33%. Do you find these number intriguing at all? Do you think that maybe this could have something to do with game outcomes? I've always wondered about stuff like that, lol.

No.

I prefer to think about applying smart money management with Labouchere to things which occur naturally, like NHL biggest dogs win more often than not. The more rules you put into wager selection, the more you fall into the trap of curve fitting, which means what works this year didn't work last year and won't work next year.

Works for me. YMMV.

[rkelly110]

Oklahoma, these systems don't include ML betting as I stated in post 283 above.
The money line is just a guide to bet on the PL for the biggest dog.

If you want to add ML dogs to your personal system that's fine.
I was experimenting with Fibonacci lines betting on the ML. Labby lines would work too.
The ML on the big dog was hitting at 50%.

If you don't want to play one game a day, but want to include the PL and ML for all
dogs, I would bet to win $6 on PL and bet $5 on ML. If PL wins and ML loses you won $1.
If they both win, that's icing on the cake. Of course you could lose both bets.

I think chizzy is just betting the biggest dog on the ML using a labby and is doing good.

The 1.45 system is a PL only system. It's an alternative to ML fav betting, it carries the
same risk as fav betting, but you're getting an extra puck and a half. As of now the 1.45
is hitting almost 63%. 40 wins 24 loses for the month. 63% is the cutoff, so it's about
even in money.

[oklahoma]

ok great, thanks for clearing it up. i think ill change it up for myself and play the +pl more often than i do the ml.

[bombCanada]

EDM at DAL todays Big Dog NHL play o de day. Good luck team.

[rkelly110]

There is a write up on our "play o de day" on SBR's home page. Check it out.

6-1.45 system plays today as of now. There were only 4 at press time.

No NBA 5.00 and over plays today.

GL

[oklahoma]

didnt play the biggest dog tonight. that game looked far to ugly. and it looks like 3-3 on the 1.45 sys losing the juice. Hopefully both systems continue to do as well as they have when we return on tuesday.

[rkelly110]

Yeah, good thing I was at the start of my lab line, didn't lose much. At least it
wasn't an ass whipping.

[bombCanada]

Easy does it guys. Could just have easily been a winner. it'd be a nightmare to cap yourself out of a win.

[rkelly110]

3-1 on the NBA 5.00 and over games. Biggest dog, Sacramento won SU against Lakers?

I was on 2 of the games, 'cause my cappers were on them. Wash and Sac.

[bombCanada]

Boy it's a long wait until Tuesday...

[rkelly110]

Look at all that money you're saving/ not making. I hope we can stay consistent
after the break.

Last year, I was with Plusline sports for their NHL totals. Kicked ass until after the
olympics. Shit went down hill after that. This is only my 2nd year betting hockey,
I don't know how things go after the break. I'm thinking things will heat up. Hopefully
the bad teams turn it on. Could go the other way too, with the good teams dominating.

We might have to change strategies, depending on how things go. Like betting on PL
against the biggest dogs or ML favs. We'll see.

[bombCanada]

And I guess the Big Dog NHL system is done for the month of January, since the next game is 1 Feb.

For January:
Record 20-12 (more than 1 play some days)
+31 base units
2 Lab lines cleared (would have been 3 if EDM had covered at DAL)

For the season:
Record 76-44
+134 base units
10 lines cleared

[rkelly110]

Jan +1.45 and over system is 42-26 62%

For the season, 159-89 64%

Since starting lab lines from the 1st of the year, I cleared 5-4# lines +10 units on the biggest
dog +PL.

Good stuff, thanks for the help BC.

[bombCanada]

Jan +1.45 and over system is 42-26 62%

For the season, 159-89 64%

Since starting lab lines from the 1st of the year, I cleared 5-4# lines +10 units on the biggest
dog +PL.

Good stuff, thanks for the help BC.

Congratulations rkelly, thanks for hanging out in this guy floridagolfer's thread with me.

So there lots of baseball systems which wave off on Sept 1 because by then the playoff pic has fully developed and teams can either slack off or spoil if they wish. I wonder if there's a similar concern in hockey?

[rkelly110]

What's the deal with today's Allstar game? The total is 16.5 goals? Are there going to be
net tenders? Sure doesn't look like it!

[oklahoma]

3-1 on the NBA 5.00 and over games. Biggest dog, Sacramento won SU against Lakers?

I was on 2 of the games, 'cause my cappers were on them. Wash and Sac.

i went 3-1 that day, love these bets. today ive bet small on cavs +17...they have to turn it around sometime.

[rkelly110]

Good luck oklahoma, get 'em!

I think you will win, they will play hard against a top team.

[oklahoma]

as much as i like your system rkelly, i think the cavs are a team to lay off of. even with +17 and a couple weeks ago +18 spreads it still goes down to one basket deciding it. pulled through though...they lost by 16..

[fjordo]

I wonder if there's a similar concern in hockey?

Yes, but not as much as in baseball. More teams in the playoffs, means more fighting for position, and home advantage. You might see top teams giving more playing time to their lower lines, playing their backup goalie, and trying to lay back a bit, keeping the team healthy and saving energy for the playoffs, but they won't call up a bunch of rookies, they want to keep the team chemistry. On the other hand, teams out of the picture may trade some players away and call up some players. With no pressure, and players fighting for contracts next season, these teams can be quite unpredictable.

Is this a concern though playing the biggest underdog? Wouldn't this be a help, having poor teams spoil, and top teams laying off a bit?

[rkelly110]

Way to go okalahoma, on Cleveland. Tonight they play Miami. Will they have the energy
to play B2B away against a top team? Bet them SU. Miami has to travel back home,
where as Cleveland is in the area. That would add nicely to your roll. Just kidding.

Thanks for your info fjordo. I hope it comes into play, in our favor.

Looking at my system for baseball, +RL Fav, it went all the way through Sept.
I'm hoping floridagolfer's NHL big dog on PL system keeps going through the playoffs.
I'll see if I have printouts from last year.

21 GOALS for the all star game? I understand it's a show, but holy hell!

[rkelly110]

NBA big dog is Wash +9.5 @5.50 ML decimal, at press time, which has a 5-2 record.
Buy more points to be safe. I'll be on it +1.5 (+11).

[rkelly110]

Winner! Buying that extra 1.5 point came in handy last night. Washington pulled it off.
Cleveland lost by 20, if you bought 2.5 or more points, would've been a winner.

Back to hockey today, lets start the month off with a winner!

[bombCanada]

Tonights NHL Big Dog is the Islanders... and looks like we have several candidates for rkelly's 1.45 system. Good luck, Men!

[lolbear]

Winner! Buying that extra 1.5 point came in handy last night. Washington pulled it off.
Cleveland lost by 20, if you bought 2.5 or more points, would've been a winner.

Back to hockey today, lets start the month off with a winner!

Cleveland lost by 27..?

[rkelly110]

Duh, thanks bear. Yes, they lost by 27. Early morning calculating mistake.

At press time, there are two NBA 5.00 and over plays, Wash. and Houston.
According to my records, odds at 5.00 are 9-4 69%. I buy 1.5 pts. GL

Let's get them Islanders!