Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

[bettorjon]

hey man,

whats the w-l record of these underdogs? both nba and nhl?

btw, the bobcats is the biggest underdog tonight though they are not 5 just 3.45 i think

but they won SU

this is getting interesting

[oklahoma]

2 empty netters kill the pucklines tonight.
1-3 1.45sys
Calgary big dog ML loss as well.
hopefully tomorrows kinder to us.

[pm4e]

wow...thanks for the info pm4e...did you happen to backtest all of last season?

I back tested the past 4 seasons. The biggest losing streak in the past 4 years was that 9 game one last year. However, I am filtering out all days where there are less than 4 games. If I factor every day there is a game, then that losing streak becomes 6 games.

[chizzy]

I back tested the past 4 seasons. The biggest losing streak in the past 4 years was that 9 game one last year. However, I am filtering out all days where there are less than 4 games. If I factor every day there is a game, then that losing streak becomes 6 games.

So is it more beneficial in the long run to play every day regardless of number of games? or despite stopping that one streak did it cause more losses?

[rkelly110]

Thanks for the info pm4e, Good to see this system has a long history of winning.

bettorjon, look back in this thread around Feb 1st. BC and myself posted the
records for NHL. If I remember, the biggest dog on the PL is 65% and the 1.45
is around the same percents for the year.

NBA biggest dog over 5 is 45-33 58% from Dec to date. I have them broke down
according to odds. Some odds do better than others and I will give the win %
when we have a play.

Way to go on the Bobcats.

[pm4e]

So is it more beneficial in the long run to play every day regardless of number of games? or despite stopping that one streak did it cause more losses?

I believe it is still more beneficial to play when there are 4 or more games. I would have to go back and re-add days with fewer games to make sure however.

[rkelly110]

Our big dog for NHL is NY Islanders

1.45 +PL plays are:

NY Islanders +1.57
LA Kings +1.52

ML NHL dogs are:

Pittsburg @ 2.45
NY Islanders @ 2.65
Carolina @ 2.20

NBA dog on PS is Sacramento +10 5.50 ML. My records show 5.50 is 6-2 75%

GL guy's, let's get those bad boys!

[bombCanada]

And don't forget the Islanders start at 3 EST this afternoon!

[pm4e]

Does anyone know of a place that archives puckline odds?

[bombCanada]

And what an exciting afternoon! Our favorite dog the Islanders win STRAIGHT UP 7-6 in OT. Was listening to the Sabre's radio feed online. Good game calling there.

[bombCanada]

Does anyone know of a place that archives puckline odds?

look at the scoreboard section of SBR, or maybe scoresandodds dot com. But you're right, as a rule historical NHL odds are hard to find.

[bombCanada]

No Big Dog play for Monday... only 3 games. See you Tuesday!

[pm4e]

look at the scoreboard section of SBR, or maybe scoresandodds dot com. But you're right, as a rule historical NHL odds are hard to find.

Scoreboard section of sbr has it. Thanks for the tip!

[oklahoma]

these are the kind of days you want before a break in games. and sacramento wins straight up by 5. this nba system is unbelievable rkelly.

[rkelly110]

I don't know what the deal is, last week was one of my best ever.
Yesterday was icing on the cake. Nice bank roll builder.

Be careful from the 15th through the 22nd, that's the full moon week.
I usually struggle during that part of the month. Another thing I've
noticed.

Let's see what kind of trouble we can get into this week.

[rkelly110]

Looks like we will be taking the day off.

I see absolutely nothing.

GL in your other ventures today.

[oklahoma]

lets hope the leafs play hard today. theyre both the ml dog +179 and pl 1.61.
the kings and bobcats +9/+9.5 are nba dogs as well.
bol on everyones picks

[rkelly110]

Thanks, oklahoma.

ML dogs (fav's) for today are: Phila @ 1.86 , Minnesota @ 1.86.
(these games are rare and hit pretty good, if you will notice they are +PL's also)

NBA Dogs are as oklahoma stated above.

Sacramento is at 5.00 ML. My records show 5.00 is 12-4 75%
Charlotte is at 5.25 ML. Records show 5.25 is 4-7 36% (After capping, this game looks good.)

Please be careful this week, we could lose all we gained from last week.

[oklahoma]

Please be careful this week, we could lose all we gained from last week.

i think i'll go light on the PL's this week if at all, especially tonight with the leafs. gl.

[bombCanada]

Tonights big dog nhl play is in fact TOR at bos. Good luck!

[bombCanada]

And Toronto wins SU 4-3. Don't doubt the dog!

[rkelly110]

Yeah baby, keep 'em comin'!

Sacramento not even close to covering. Charlotte almost covered.

I wagered on our biggest NHL dog and the above NBA games for a small loss on the day.

We'll get 'em tomorrow! If you only wagered on todays NHL, you got 'em today!

[oklahoma]

sacramentos cover was dead pretty early, but that charlotte game was disappointing.
between both the nhl and nba systems there looks to be about 10 plays tomorrow. might have to be a bit selective with plays tomorrow night.

[rkelly110]

Yeah, I have to be careful, after a small loss, I usually lose big the next day.

[rkelly110]

+1.45 plays for today are Toronto , Minnesota (our dog), and Dallas.

NHL ML dogs are Carolina @ 2.10 , Florida @ 2.20 , and Dallas @ 2.35 .

Holy hell oklahoma, you weren't kidding about NBA dogs!

Washington +11.5 7.00 ML 0-1 0%
New Jersey +11 7.50 ML 0-4 0%
Cleveland +11 7.00 ML 0%
Sacramento +11 6.50 ML 1-3 33%

The above are ML odds percents I track.

+PS's I track tell a different story on the above games.

+11.5 buying 1/2 (12) point, away is 12-9 57% (Wash)
+11 buying 1/2 point (11.5) away is 5-2 71% (N. Jersey, Sacramento)
+11 @ home, I don't have info on. (Clev.)

GL, Let's get our doggy!!

[bombCanada]

Dog o de night is MIN at chi. They're 4-1 as Big Dog... fingers crossed!

[oklahoma]

+11.5 buying 1/2 (12) point, away is 12-9 57% (Wash)
+11 buying 1/2 point (11.5) away is 5-2 71% (N. Jersey, Sacramento)
+11 @ home, I don't have info on. (Clev.)

ugh i always forget to buy extra points. and washington even went up to +12.5. pretty early now but at least theyre up 4.

[bombCanada]

I was watching the score last night and MIN was covering 1-2 up until about the last 60 seconds... Chicago must have scored an empty net goal... so MIN loses 1-3.

No biggee tho... the Big Dog NHL train rolls on....

[rkelly110]

See what I mean about the moon? Cleveland beat LA Laker's SU? WTF?
Not a very friendly doggy day yesterday. I thought we had Minn. I checked
w/2 min to go, went and did something, came back and lost. Damn!

I lost big after a small loss as I mentioned above. Not on our play, I'm doing a labby
in the NBA w/ a capper and he's sucking, big. Time to add up the line and divide by 4
again.

[oklahoma]

had to get my bets in early and it looks like theres a 3 way tie tonight.
WSH/ATL/NYI +138 dogs. and those same teams all on the PL as well.
lets go for a sweep tonight yes?

[rkelly110]

Get 'em, oklahoma!

At 11am, I only see one +PL 1.45 and over. (at my book)
Atlanta +1.47

NHL ML dogs for your entertainment tonight are:

LA Kings @ 2.10
Detroit @ 1.91
Edmonton @ 2.10
(after a bad previous day, these kick butt)


No NBA 5 and over tonight.

GL guys.

[bombCanada]

All fine choices, guys. Today is another one of those squint real hard and bite my tongue to make a decision kind of days... I'm going with ATL and NYI as today's double dogs of the NHL night tonight (half wager on each). Good luck!

[PRiiMO]

for the PL i have ATL and NYI now. its all dogs over 1.45 right?

[PRiiMO]

can someone explain this to me? when i go to place the bet am i using ML odds after seeing +1.45 and over on the PL odds?

or do i use the +1.5 when placing my bet? so risk 100 to make 50?

[PRiiMO]

nevermind. got it from the 2nd page