Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

bombCanada · 01-19-11, 05:16 PM

No big dog tonight, less than 4games.

oklahoma · 01-19-11, 11:16 PM

assuming i read your post correctly rkelly, in nba it looks like all the teams that were against opponents favored over -500 easily covered their pointspreads.
detroit+12 lose by 4
philly+9 by 1
toronto+12 by 9
looks pretty good.

rkelly110 · 01-20-11, 08:43 AM

You got it, oklahoma. The big dog won in the NBA,Toronto, if you were just betting that.
4 straight wins on the NBA big dog.

The 1.45 system didn't come through with Toronto.

rkelly110 · 01-20-11, 08:45 AM

Originally posted by rkelly110

Here is some NBA 5.00 and over stats from Dec to date. These are all, not just the biggest dog.
Using 5.00 and over, betting on the point spread. The spread is usually +9 and over.

5.00 8 of 11 73%
5.25 4 of 9 44%
5.50 5 of 7 71%
5.75 3 of 5 60%
6.00 0 of 1 0%
6.50 1 of 3 33%
7.00 0 of 1 0%
7.50 0 of 4 0%
8.00 2 of 3 67%
8.50 3 of 4 75%
9.00 2 of 3 67%
10.00 1 of 4 25%
11.00 2 of 2 100%
13.00 1 of 1 100%

32 of 58 55% total for all.

Yes, a small sample size. The 5.00 and 5.50 are odds that occur more often and are hitting
at or above 70%. With odds at 1.91 w/o buying points, looks good.

Just bringing this to the new page and updated.

This will give you an idea to pick and choose which odds are doing better than others.

oklahoma · 01-20-11, 04:05 PM

looks like ottawa will be biggest dog at +206. are you guys playing the ml or pl or both?

bombCanada · 01-20-11, 04:15 PM

NHL big dog is Ottawa at Philly tonight. I'm on the puckline.

rkelly110 · 01-20-11, 04:45 PM

I'm playing both on Ottawa. PL for my labby and ML for the Fibonacci.
Also, playing the 1.45 system.

GL on a great night!

easywinner · 01-21-11, 01:11 AM

Dudes a heads up, check out that thread that chizzy recommended on page 7 of this thread if you haven't already. I've been on it the last few days and it's pretty good. It's 10-3 so 77% since it started in early January. Idk if anyone has back tested it or anything but it's working in the sample size it has. Between this awesome thread and that one I'm getting plenty of my fix for betting and watching the NHL. You guys are awesome for keeping up the good work. I'm glad i found both threads because now I'm following 2 winning NHL systems.

rkelly110 · 01-21-11, 08:52 AM

Thanks easy, will check it out.

Ottawa sucked the big one. 2 of 4 on the 1.45 system.

I hope I don't get destroyed betting the big dog on PL labby and my ML Fib lines.
They are both getting up there. Got to be patient.

rkelly110 · 01-21-11, 09:21 AM

Checked out that thread and it makes my head spin, w/o a head cold.

Making fun of you BC.

How are you making out with the cold?

shantystar · 01-21-11, 11:55 AM

gl.

oklahoma · 01-21-11, 07:13 PM

islanders biggest underdog today. +179 at pinny. gl

oklahoma · 01-22-11, 12:36 AM

and the isles win straight up

bombCanada · 01-22-11, 07:40 AM

hi Guys, thanks for keeping it going. Yes, NYI wins Big Dog straight up. Good stuff.

bombCanada · 01-22-11, 07:46 AM

Big Dog NHL co-dogs today are NJD and Calgary. Calgary open higher but Devils now bigger. Half wager on each, esp since Flyers ate big dog Ottawa's lunch two days ago.

rkelly110 · 01-22-11, 08:37 AM

WooHoo! Way to go Islanders! Had a bunch of money on that game. Whew.
Cleared my Fib line for 2 units.

NBA big dog, Toronto, got destroyed by 40 last night.

rkelly110 · 01-22-11, 03:44 PM

Another WooHoo! New Jersey kicked butt !$!$

I'm not understanding this shit. After capping the game, the Flyers should've won that game
by the margin NJ did. 3-1.

Come on Flames, one more number to clear my 4th labby line since the 1st of the year.

I'm giving up on the fib lines, my heart can't take the stress of putting all my marbles
on one game. Goes to show it does work.

oklahoma · 01-22-11, 11:42 PM

flames really putting up a fight against the canucks. loving this dog strategy. gl to those who took calgary as well.

rkelly110 · 01-23-11, 07:47 AM

Just looked at the scores. OMG what a night!

The dual big dogs won SU. The 1.45 won every game. 5 for 5, 3 SU.

NBA big dog Cleveland (13.00) wins against the spead also.

bombCanada · 01-23-11, 09:32 AM

rkelly congratulations and good work. I'm really impressed with the 1.45 system. And yes, I think we have the ass-kickingest dog thread on any board anywhere. This is really turning into something.

It's really worthwhile to do the experimentation you've been doing with the money management side of things. One important part of risk management is figuring out how much you as a human can tolerate. It took me a long time (a couple of years, which is a long time for me) to completely rid myself of the impulse to bet based on feelings. If I have a favorite team (go Caps! go Jets!) I might set myself a loss budget, and if I lose it, it's done... it's mad money, and if it goes, then that was the plan. The other thing I've done is grown comfortable with how I manage my lab lines. I KNOW if I follow them I'll win. I can make the big wager when it's required and KNOW it will work out (if not on this game, later on). I KNOW I WILL MAKE MONEY AS LONG AS I'M HITTING AT 40%. With that knowledge, the stress is gone. It might take me longer to finish lines, and i might make less than some other guy over time, but I always live to bet tomorrow. A different system (but always with Lab lines for money management) took me through at 16 game losing streak, and I did not blow out. What would have happened with Martingale or Fibonacci lines? What you're doing is important. Learn from it. Keep it up. Good work.

rkelly110 · 01-23-11, 11:00 AM

Thanks again, for the pep talk BC. I'm new to this type of stress. I'm a small bettor and
when the money gets up there, I get nervous. The lab lines, like you said, will bring profit.
I just need to be patient and take the emotion out of it.

After the ass kicking I took last month, using the lab lines for this month is showing a
profit, thanks to you and the other posters help. Almost reaching that new bankroll high.

I keep a little graph of my daily win loss record, so far this month, It's one of my highest
months @ 62%. I also keep separate records for what sports I bet, to see which sport
does better. I add up weekly, monthly and yearly for each sport. Football kicked my ass, big.

RbN · 01-23-11, 11:09 AM

Its not yet really clear for me. Should I bet the days biggest odd (dog) at +1,5? Just one game a day? is there any minimum value(odd)required for this system? What if u lose the first bet? Double ur next bet or? tnx sir

oklahoma · 01-23-11, 11:24 AM

the way ive understood it is strictly pick the biggest underdog with the highest odds as long as there are at least 4 games that day. today theres 5 games and it looks like atl will be the biggest dog currently at +147 at pinnacle. how much you bet depends on what betting system youre using. the 2 guys above you are using lab lines.

RbN · 01-23-11, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by oklahoma

the way ive understood it is strictly pick the biggest underdog with the highest odds as long as there are at least 4 games that day. today theres 5 games and it looks like atl will be the biggest dog currently at +147 at pinnacle. how much you bet depends on what betting system youre using. the 2 guys above you are using lab lines.

Thanks for the explanation.....

But during the day odds changes right. Is it decided from the opening lines who's the dog of the night? or at what time?

oklahoma · 01-23-11, 12:44 PM

from what ive noticed the odds dont seem to change too drastically that often. for the guys here that keep records i think they go by the closing lines. yesterday i had bet newjerseys moneyline +201 at around noon and they went all the way to +220 a half hour later before coming down to +210. also if the biggest underdog has a decent +1.5 pl odds it generally plays out best to take the pl.

rkelly110 · 01-23-11, 01:21 PM

Thanks oklahoma for clarifying. I normally check the odds at press time. 10-11 am.
For the 1.45 and over system, if the odds dip below 1.45, I don't bet them. If they
win or lose, I will mark it up as a win or loss, because it was a play at press time.

The big dog of the day usually stays that way all day. Betting on the PL the odds
will sometimes change for the better or worse.

I normally bet 1 hour or less before game time.

oklahoma · 01-23-11, 06:51 PM

well the thrashers are taking quite the thrashing. looks like its on to the next one.

loyd · 01-24-11, 12:19 AM

Denver took their revenge this night after their historic defeat at indiana, indiana was at +450

rkelly110 · 01-24-11, 08:37 AM

Yeah oklahoma, Atlanta and us took a thrashing. That's to be expected from time
to time, because they are big dogs for a reason.

I didn't bet the NBA yesterday but, Indiana did fit the system. Maybe follow the
minimum 4 game rule?

Sorry about the Jets BC. If you bet on them, I hope you bought points.
Just a point and 1/2 you would've won.

bombCanada · 01-24-11, 03:42 PM

hey rkelly, tx, I had a small wager on the Jets straight up. I was optimistic. On to better things next year.

Yes we got hammered in Tampa Bay last night.

Today the NHL Big Dog is the Rangers at the Caps, and I will endeavor to watch it, but if my wife hides the remote then there's nothing I can do (if you've never seen the Married with Children episode where Al's TV remote gets hidden, go find it).

Looks like 3 games for the 1.45 system. Good luck!

oklahoma · 01-24-11, 10:26 PM

for the 1.45 system, is that betting the dog +1.5 pl that has odds 1.45(-220) or greater? so by 3 games tonight bC meant bruins, blues and preds? and NYR pulls through in shootouts.

bombCanada · 01-25-11, 07:01 AM

Yup Rangers win outright by way of shootout.

rkelly110 · 01-25-11, 07:45 AM

The 3 plays for the +PL decimal odds 1.45 and over were, Toronto, Rangers and Dallas.
They went 1 of 3, with the big dog, Rangers winning SU.

Sorry about your Caps, BC.

NBA big dog, Detroit (8.50) wins SU against Orlando @ home also. That would've been a nice
ML hit.

oklahoma · 01-25-11, 11:21 AM

rkelly would you bet cavs today +18 with your nba strategy? i dont recall the last time ive seen such a large pointspread and you mentioned before you prefer not to bet the cavs. 18 points seems like way to much but then they also lost by 50 or so to lakers.

and it looks like leafs and oilers might split the biggest dog today.

rkelly110 · 01-25-11, 12:52 PM

If you want to, put a unit on it. The 13.00 odds from above has hit 2 of 2. 100%
Cleveland did win games ATS on the 23rd and yesterday. Will they be too tired
for todays game, who knows? Boston's ATS record @ home 9-15 is as bad as
Cleveland's on the road 9-16. I would buy another one and half points just in case.

If you're asking me oklahoma, yes, I will be on it and buying 1 1/2 points for a unit ($5)

Going to be a tough one tonight in NHL. 2 big dogs + 3 other games for the 1.45 and over.

Let's get 'em!