Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

floridagolfer · 10-27-10, 06:50 AM

This is worth watching.

Colorado +1.5 is a winner on Monday.

teecee · 10-27-10, 07:54 AM

nice, golfer. thanks for the heads up.

isg2010 · 10-27-10, 08:36 AM

Just doing a quick glance for October and it appears the top two ML dogs covered the +1.5 PL a great majority of the time. Perhaps a play on the biggest dog and a smaller play on #2 to cover your bet may be the way to go.

mister bee · 10-27-10, 11:10 AM

that's a lot of juice to lay, no?

floridagolfer · 10-30-10, 05:54 AM

It's not cheap. But on occasion you get a bargain like Edmonton on Friday night in Chicago, getting 1.5 and winning the game outright by three; another Game A winner.

Duby · 10-30-10, 09:11 AM

Its crazy this year. I belive that +200 or more dogs are like 8-0 on the PL!!

floridagolfer · 10-31-10, 06:20 AM

Don't have my stats in front of me at the moment, but I think you're right. Not sure what San Jose's odds were Saturday night.

floridagolfer · 11-22-10, 03:17 PM

Season update (restricting this play to days when there are at least four games on the schedule): 24-0 with 17 wins coming on an A game and only one series going beyond a C game.

The play for 11/22 is Calgary +1.5 vs. the Rangers.

loyd · 11-30-10, 08:49 AM

i bet 2 underdogs yesterday and both won, dallas and edmondton, dallas was +105 and ed +170

floridagolfer · 12-01-10, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by loyd

i bet 2 underdogs yesterday and both won, dallas and edmondton, dallas was +105 and ed +170

Edmonton was the money line/puck line play and turned out to be an easy winner. That makes it 27-0 on the season with 26 wins coming in A, B or C games.

rkelly110 · 12-01-10, 01:57 PM

Just did Nov. +PL 23 of 33 (all days) 70% win rate. At avg odds of 1.5, you'd be up 6 units.

Betting ML of same team is 13 of 33 39%, say avg odds of 2.5 you would be down less than
a unit. Do a Labby, you would be in great shape.

Thanks for the idea Florida. Are you saying this worked for baseball too, because I was
down 60 units and need something for next year.

RiverRaid · 12-01-10, 02:44 PM

Pretty cool system.

rkelly110 · 12-01-10, 07:48 PM

Couldn't wait for your response florida, so I did some backtracking in the baseball forum.

This system is different, no chasing, yea!

Made my 1st bet on Edmonton. Bet to win $6 on PL and bet $5 on ML. If PL wins and ML
looses, I win $1. If they both win, I win $15 or lose $14.90.

floridagolfer · 12-02-10, 08:59 AM

Originally posted by rkelly110

Couldn't wait for your response florida, so I did some backtracking in the baseball forum.

This system is different, no chasing, yea!

Made my 1st bet on Edmonton. Bet to win $6 on PL and bet $5 on ML. If PL wins and ML
looses, I win $1. If they both win, I win $15 or lose $14.90.

The system does chase (or, at least, that was the original premise of the thread that was started a few years ago), but the last two years in baseball, depending on how many games you go before it gets too expensive, my results are 90-1 and 91-3. Typically, about 90 percent of all series end within three games.

superman613 · 12-02-10, 09:58 AM

Wow this is something to watch for sure!

rkelly110 · 12-02-10, 01:42 PM

Thanks, florida. Will check it out next year.

Edmonton wins in OT. PL & ML +3 units

Tonights NHL, Florida. GL

rkelly110 · 12-03-10, 08:23 AM

Florida wins on PL.

2 for 2 for Dec. +4 units

Todays play NY Islanders PL your choice w/ ML. GL

floridagolfer · 12-03-10, 09:30 PM

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

3 freakin' seconds!

rkelly110 · 12-04-10, 12:13 PM

Didn't watch the game, I guess by your response, we lost w/ 3 seconds to go? AAAAAHHHHH!

Two games for today. New Jersey and Atlanta. Lets get 'em!

Dec. 2 of 3 +2.3 units

rkelly110 · 12-05-10, 10:26 AM

New Jersey was a dud, but Atlanta came through with a win on PL and ML.

Betting to win 1 unit on PL no chasing. It's a pain to keep track of units, will just post winners.
Using a labby or a chase system this will work great.

Dec. 3 of 5

Todays pick is St Louis.

Thanks florida, hope you don't mind I keep this thread alive.

chizzy · 12-05-10, 04:53 PM

Can anyone be bothered putting in the time to backtest how this would go if we played the days biggest moneyline favourite on the puckline? thatd be way less juice to lay and would require a lower hit rate. maybe more profitable?

rkelly110 · 12-06-10, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by chizzy

Can anyone be bothered putting in the time to backtest how this would go if we played the days biggest moneyline favourite on the puckline? thatd be way less juice to lay and would require a lower hit rate. maybe more profitable?

Don't know, judge for yourself.

Go to the Baseball handicapping forum, pg 2. Look for System Integrity,
last page, starting on post # 2709 is where they started this.

From what I saw, not good.

You could do this system on ML. Last month the ML was at 39%.
So far this month ML hit 3 of 6 with last nights win. A chase or
labby on the ML of this system..... you would be filthy rich.
(If the current win rate holds out.)

GL

rkelly110 · 12-06-10, 04:16 PM

St. Loius won SU.

Dec. 4 of 6 67%

Todays play is Toronto. GL

bombCanada · 12-06-10, 08:02 PM

Guys

There's an option open to us in using this system which I like a lot and analyzed quickly using the info from the opening post... you can dramatically reduce juice, and often turn juiced bets into +money bets, by using a +1PL instead of +1.5. You have to be satisfied with some pushes, but to my way of thinking, giving up some wins for pushes if those wins (and losses) come at reduced juice is well worth it...

If you think this might interest you, some books have +1 lines, otherwise you can do a synthetic +1 using ML and +1.5 PL wagers. Floating around in the baseball forum somewhere is a RunLine calculator designed to do the same thing in baseball with the ML and RL.

From first post:
10/7 -- W - W (using +1 PL)
10/8 -- L/W (two tied for biggest ML underdog; depending on which team you took) - W/L
10/9 -- W - W
10/11 -- W - P
10/13 -- W - P
10/14 -- W - W
10/15 -- W - P
10/16 -- W - P
10/18 -- W - W
10/19 -- W - W
10/20 -- W - P
10/21 -- L/W (two tied for biggest ML underdog; depending on which team you took) - W/L
10/22 -- L - L
10/23 -- W - P

this below is only +1PL
10/26 -- P
10/27 -- L
10/28 -- W
10/29 -- W
10/30 -- L

rkelly110 · 12-07-10, 12:10 PM

Thanks canada, I'll see if I have that option at my book. I know there's a way to do what
you say, I forget.

Wow, how about that Toronto play. I checked on the game early in the 3rd. Down 3.
They came back to win in double OT to win SU. Cool.

Dec. 5 of 7 PL 71% 4 of 7 ML 57%

I'm not liking todays game, Buffalo. The odds are too low on PL. I would risk a min bet on the ML.

Odds are jumping between Buffalo and Ottawa for the lead. I'm taking both on ML.

GL everyone.

floridagolfer · 12-07-10, 08:06 PM

I don't know where the numbers are. Someone, maybe last season, did a test on playing the -1.5, which provide far better odds. But there was one losing streak of eight or nine . . . something very unattractive . . . and that kind of took the idea out of contention. But I'm not sure what the numbers looked like for the entire season.

rkelly110 · 12-08-10, 06:51 PM

Ottawa was a dud. Buffalo won on PL.

Dec. 6 of 9 67% PL 4 of 9 44% ML

Two plays today, Toronto and Anaheim

GL

rkelly110 · 12-09-10, 12:47 PM

Toronto lost, Anaheim won on PL.

Dec. 7 of 11 63% on PL 4 of 11 36% on ML

Today's play is on NY Islanders.

I noticed for Dec. PL odds over 1.44, has hit 14 of 20 times for 70%.
2 of 3 last night. Will do Nov and Oct when I get a chance.

GL

rkelly110 · 12-09-10, 01:20 PM

Here's the run down for +PL over 1.44.

Nov. 43 of 64 67%

Oct. 35 of 52 67%

Total to date for all 92 of 136 68%

Some days won all bets, most days hit 2 of 3, a small percent hit 50% and an even
smaller percent was 1 of 3. The only time I had no wins was when there was one game.

Not bad at all.

rkelly110 · 12-10-10, 12:24 PM

Islanders shit the bed.

Dec. 7 of 12 58% +PL 4 of 12 33% ML

3 of 4 last night betting +PL over 1.44 odds.
Dec. 20 of 24 83%

Tonights play is Montreal.

GL

rkelly110 · 12-11-10, 08:12 AM

Montreal sucked.

Dec. 7 of 13 54% +PL 4 of 13 31% ML

Dec. +PL 20 of 25 80%

Anyone following this thread knows the deal, feels like I'm writing to myself.

I'm signing off, Everyone have a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.

bombCanada · 12-11-10, 11:28 AM

You're not writing to yourself, I can read but not write from the Droid, which is how I do most of my reading.

This deal works (at least this year). It's just sort of lumpy. This year there'd been 3 straight losses twice until last night, which was 4 straight.

Tonight is Colorado at Washington, which would normally be a no brainer, but the Caps (my adopted home team) have really not played well. Follow the system.

I'd love to backtest for a couple of years but the only way I've found to get historical PL odds, digging through the old SBR scores pages, is unbelievably painful and time consuming and error prone. Anyone know where I can find it?

bombCanada · 12-12-10, 01:31 PM

Colorado wins outright, ending the losing streak for this biggest dog thread at 4. Caps really struggling.

No play tonight, only 3 games on the calendar.

Dec. 8 of 13 61% +PL 5 of 13 38% ML

Dec. +PL over 1.44 (which I interpret as -227 or better)
4 of 6 last night
for the month 24 of 31 77%

Sawyer · 12-12-10, 01:38 PM

I strongly suggest to make a bactesting bout this system. Will be good to know its record for 2007, 2008, 2009.