Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

bombCanada · 12-12-10, 04:01 PM

Sawyer, not a bad idea, but finding data is a ton of work. There's only so much time in the day. Thanks for looking in.

bombCanada · 12-13-10, 11:05 AM

Islanders tonight at Nashville.

Hawk007 · 12-13-10, 12:20 PM

Would have to use covers stats or something similiar and the results would be from closing lines. Anyone want to split some years?

rkelly110 · 12-13-10, 12:21 PM

Thanks for continuing the thread bomb. GL to us tonight.

bombCanada · 12-13-10, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by Hawk007

Would have to use covers stats or something similiar and the results would be from closing lines. Anyone want to split some years?

Unless I'm dumber than I think I am, I couldn't find historical PL odds at covers stats. The only place I could find them was in SBR scores, one day at a time.

bombCanada · 12-13-10, 09:18 PM

BTW no system play as only 2 games tomorrow (Tue) night.

rkelly110 · 12-14-10, 12:22 PM

Mon. hit 2 of 3 +PL over 1.44 and 2 of 3 ML of the same teams.

Bet to win 1 unit on +PL. If betting ML, bet 1 unit, or units of your choosing.

bombCanada · 12-15-10, 11:39 AM

Anaheim tonight at Washington. Should be a crushing by the Caps but the way Caps are playing Ana probably wins outright.

icecapper · 12-15-10, 12:30 PM

You may have something here, anxious to see how it works out.

bombCanada · 12-15-10, 08:38 PM

Caps looking better than they have in the last 4 or 5 games, but Anaheim still making a game of it, 1-1 after 2 periods.

rkelly110 · 12-16-10, 09:57 AM

Sorry about your Caps, but a system win. +PL over 1.44 3 of 4 and 2 of 4 on ML last night.
Colorado was on the bubble @ 1.44 and changed to +1.45 before game time. They won
SU and +PL. So that would've been 4 of 5 PL and 3 of 5 ML. Nice.

bombCanada · 12-16-10, 11:19 AM

Rkelly

Thanks for the sympathy! But most important is the system win, and the 1.44 system continues to do well... well done sir.

Based on what I see we're looking at phoenix and carolina tonight. Personally I will make a half size wager on each.

rkelly110 · 12-16-10, 12:44 PM

Yeah, I'm not liking anything today, I see Toronto is in the mix also.

GL bomb.

easywinner · 12-16-10, 01:50 PM

Damn I'm always a day late or in this case 2 months late on the good stuff, i just found this thread today. So i read the thread and I'm a little confused. From what i gather the OP was playing only the top dog of the day on the +1.5 PL right and it was doing great? Then as the thread went on it seems like you guys are playing multiple dogs when they fit certain criteria of over 1.44 odds, which would be -227 on the +PL for me in U.S. odds, regardless of if they are the biggest dog that day or not right? Are you just flat betting or using a Labby or Marty method? Has anyone been doing this since the start of the season, if so how many units are you up? Thanks, this info looks good from what i see. I'd like to jump in i just need to understand what the current game plan is.

rkelly110 · 12-16-10, 07:36 PM

Thanks for stopping in easy, you understand it perfectly.

There are multiple ways to play this.

1. Play only the biggest dog of the day on the +PL SU, chase (as the original creator says),
or a labby.
2. Play all +PL odds at 1.45 odds and above to win 1 unit (or of your choosing)
3. Use +PL odds at 1.45 and over to pick ML dogs. Bet 1 unit.

I've posted my records in the below thread, to help you with the win percents.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/hockey-handicapping/841241-guys-underdogs-way-go-hockey.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

+PL odds over 1.44 is 23 of 34 68% for Dec.
Using +PL odds over 1.44 to pick ML dogs is at 53% for Dec.

easywinner · 12-17-10, 01:53 AM

Cool, thanks for the clearification rkelly110.

mlb · 12-17-10, 03:04 AM

anyone going to go back and do this research?

rkelly110 · 12-17-10, 08:06 AM

Go to above post #50 and click on the link. It only goes back to the begining of the season.

bombCanada · 12-17-10, 05:44 PM

Ottawa biggest dog tonight.

bombCanada · 12-17-10, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by mlb

anyone going to go back and do this research?

I'd love to but a convenient and easy to use source of historical PL odds is a problem. I can get them from the scoreboard section of sbrodds but its incredibly time consuming.

bombCanada · 12-18-10, 10:45 AM

Ottawa winner last night. Based on my record keeping this system is now 43-26, and is up 47 units as I play it using my own Lab lines adapted for this system.

Tonight is Toronto.

based on opening lines, there were no 1.44 system plays last night, but looks like Ottawa would have been a play based on closing lines, and was a PL winner but ML loser.

PatrickBateman · 12-18-10, 11:33 AM

Intersting stuff, but I too find myself a bit confused.

bombCanada · 12-19-10, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by PatrickBateman

Intersting stuff, but I too find myself a bit confused.

It's rkelly and me sharing a private moneymaking joke.

bombCanada · 12-19-10, 11:20 AM

Tonight's biggest dog is Dallas at Detroit.

The 1.44 system (betting PL and/or ML on dogs whose PL is -227 or better) went 2-3, and the ML went 1-4. Faves did pretty well last night. They were due.

rkelly110 · 12-19-10, 01:14 PM

Yeah, not good last night. I've been betting to win $6 on +PL and betting $5 on ML.
If +PL wins, I win $1, if ML looses. That way I can try to catch both. Don't know of
a way to do a labby on multiple games with out multiple lines. To be honest, never
tried a labby to begin with.

Lets get that Dallas game SU!

bombCanada · 12-19-10, 07:49 PM

And.... while the NY Giants screw the pooch, the Dallas Stars win outright over the Redwings.

bombCanada · 12-19-10, 07:53 PM

you can do Labby on multiple games in at least 2 different ways:
- multiple lines
- one line. You simply use the same amount for each of the games. If you're regularly on multiple games, then lengthen the line accordingly. I usually use longer lines than most people because I want to grow my bankroll more before I increase my base wager size.

For what you're doing, rkelly, I'd probably have a PL line and a ML line.

rkelly110 · 12-19-10, 09:24 PM

Winner winner, pork and sauerkraut dinner!

Sorry about the Giants, I had Philly +3.5, helluva game!

I tried to do a labby with my losses earlier this week and I got it hard. I added up my losses
for the previous week and divided the total by eight so I wouldn't have a large per game outlay.
I picked 4 games to try and get only one of the numbers off the line, per game. 4 games,
4 numbers. All 4 lost. That hurt. That was the extent of my labby experiment.

bombCanada · 12-20-10, 05:50 AM

Yeah, the Giants made one of the oldest mistakes in the book... they quit playing while there was still time on the clock. Morons. I guess they still have a shot at a wildcard slot. Morons.

bombCanada · 12-20-10, 06:00 AM

Originally posted by rkelly110

I tried to do a labby with my losses earlier this week and I got it hard. I added up my losses
for the previous week and divided the total by eight so I wouldn't have a large per game outlay.
I picked 4 games to try and get only one of the numbers off the line, per game. 4 games,
4 numbers. All 4 lost. That hurt. That was the extent of my labby experiment.

Labby is one of those things I had to see in action to grasp fully. My sincere recommendation is to do what you do successfully while you run a simple spreadsheet in which you model your lines. After you do that for a couple of weeks, maybe even getting to the point where you've completed a line, then start using with real cabbage.

for example:

day 1
line 1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1,
game a bet to win 2, win, makes tomorrows line x-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-x
game b bet to win 2, win, makes tomorrows line x-x-1-1-1-1-1-1-x-x
game c bet to win 2, lose, , makes tomorrows line x-x-1-1-1-1-1-1-2

day 2
line x-x-1-1-1-1-1-1-2
game a bet to win 3, win, makes tomorrows line x-x-x-1-1-1-1-1-x
game b bet to win 3, win, makes tomorrows line x-x-x-x-1-1-x-x-x
game c bet to win 3, lose, makes tomorrows line x-x-x-x-1-1-3

day 3
line x-x-x-x-1-1-3
game a bet to win 4, win makes tomorrows line x-x-x-x-x-1-x
game b bet to win 4, win completes line, start tomorrow with a new line

make sense?

rkelly110 · 12-20-10, 08:51 AM

Thanks bomb, I'm familiar with how they work. Sometimes I have 8 games going on in one day,
with different leagues. Maybe I could do a labby for each league? Use each team to knock
off a number? There are so many ways to do this it's mind boggling.

tuxStyle · 12-20-10, 09:53 AM

Don't use a labby for each team ...
If you are unlucky and take a team like Caps and loose 7 in a row, you won't like the result

bombCanada · 12-20-10, 05:43 PM

Florida tonight.

easywinner · 12-20-10, 06:31 PM

I for the most part understand labbys and all and have even used it before but i was thinking about this earlier and i wanted to ask. As long as you have vast resources of money on reserve compared to the unit size you bet, for potential long losing streaks, wouldn't you pretty much be guaranteed to win using a labby system? Like let's say hypothetically you had a 100K bankroll just sitting on reserve and you bet $100 or $200 units and used a labby system, isn't that pretty fool proof to be successful, barring a profoundly horrendous losing streak and assuming the bettor had sports betting knowledge?

rkelly110 · 12-20-10, 07:14 PM

That's the key word, money, in vast reserves. But really, If you bet one game a day,
you're guaranteed to make money. The labby is based on a coin flip with a 50% win rate.

Just for shits and giggles, have your girl friend, wife or your mother pick your games for you
using a labby, I'll bet they will win money. In other words, you don't have to be a capper.