Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

[bombCanada]

Don't use a labby for each team ...
If you are unlucky and take a team like Caps and loose 7 in a row, you won't like the result

This is PRECISELY why you might want to use a separate line for each team. If you've got a number of steady winners going along and winning you a few units a night, you can then afford to "invest" in a team which is good but on a losing streak.... even after the streak the Caps are still 19-12-2.

I run multiple systems, one line per team, plus this system, which is 1 line for different teams, plus another couple like that. One of those systems (one line for multiple teams) just went through a 9 game losing streak which took it from +14 units to -29 units and has since recovered to +5 units. If I had been using a single line for everything, I would have lost it all. As it was, I was able to live to bet another day.

So in your thinking about money management, don't forget to think about risk management.

[rkelly110]

Florida, winner winner, spaghetti dinner.

2 of 3 last night SU and +PL, using over 1.44 odds. +2.7 units

Wow bomb, doing all those labbys has got to be a lot of work. So each system has it's own
line, betting one team per line. So if you were following a JM 3 game system, would you have
a line with 6 numbers for each team? How would you get rid of the line on a 3 game chase?

[tuxStyle]

This is PRECISELY why you might want to use a separate line for each team. If you've got a number of steady winners going along and winning you a few units a night, you can then afford to "invest" in a team which is good but on a losing streak.... even after the streak the Caps are still 19-12-2.

I run multiple systems, one line per team, plus this system, which is 1 line for different teams, plus another couple like that. One of those systems (one line for multiple teams) just went through a 9 game losing streak which took it from +14 units to -29 units and has since recovered to +5 units. If I had been using a single line for everything, I would have lost it all. As it was, I was able to live to bet another day.

So in your thinking about money management, don't forget to think about risk management.

I usually bet 2 or 3 games per day and i have a Fibonacci for each line so, 3 lines max.
I did a back-test for the system i use and in 3 of the last 5 years i had 2x7 games lost and 1x8 games lost.
Pretty bad because at one point i was -60u and i had to bet 28u (and this with a less risky fibonacci variant) ...
In the end was good but -60u is not a good sight when the base bet is 2u

Probably resetting the lines after 4 games lost and accepting the lost units would be better.

I will try to do a back-test with one line/team when i have time to see how it works.

Even with Labby won't be way better because even with a starting line 1-1-1-1-1-1 you might end with something like 8-9-12-14 so, betting 20+ units.

I will do a back-test with labby to see how it works and how bad it is for series with 7, 8, 9 games lost in a row.

[bombCanada]

Edmonton is our Big Dog of the night.

[bombCanada]

There's a whole long story about it, and it wasn't how I thought my day would go, but lo and behold I found myself at the casino after lunch today (there's a jewelry store there, after all, and I was looking for a Christmas present). In my very first attempt to prove that this Labouchere stuff isn't snake oil, I took $200, and at a $10 minimum roulette table, starting with a line of 5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5 ran through 3 lines and part of a 4th, walking away having turned $200 to $365 in 2 hours. I did my best work when it was just me and the guy spinning the wheel. I did my worst when there was some guy there jabbering away and I actually lost track of where I was and got so confused I had to start over... if that hadn't happened, I would have doubled my money. Oh, and I went through a 7 spin losing streak, and almost had to bail, but it came back nicely. 2 of the wheel spinners (dealers? croupiers? I don't know what they are) were completely oblivious, but the 3d figured out very quickly by watching how I stacked my chips that I was running some sort of a system. Turns out that he's an avid hockey bettor. It was fairly amusing to have him call me on it so quickly. But he was cool and I won my best money with him.

[bombCanada]

Florida, winner winner, spaghetti dinner.

2 of 3 last night SU and +PL, using over 1.44 odds. +2.7 units

Wow bomb, doing all those labbys has got to be a lot of work. So each system has it's own
line, betting one team per line. So if you were following a JM 3 game system, would you have
a line with 6 numbers for each team? How would you get rid of the line on a 3 game chase?

great work on the 1.44 system. really working out for you.

I have doing the lines down to a system, with a spreadsheet all set up to track it all. But in the end, between hockey and basketball, I probably spend an hour a day on it. It does take some time, but it works. I enjoy spending the time because I enjoy the success of having synthesized something myself which finally makes me independent. And the edge which Labouchere provides is what I needed to make it happen.

First of all, I don't do or follow anything JM does... not saying it doesn't work, but it's not for me.

And as labby and chasing are both money management systems, it's either one or the other. Can't do both.

[rkelly110]

I was at the casino yesterday playing Roulette also. My system pulled
in $63 in less than 1/2 hour starting w/ $80. Gave the croupier a $5
tip and ran out of there! I'm going back out again tonight.

Don't know what's for dinner tonight, will let everyone know after
Edmonton wins tonight.

[Flight]

Devils -1.5 isn't a bad idea either

Devils are a good team that have been underperforming, they have all the value tonight (Capitals are never a profitable bet, line is always shaded against them like the Lakers or Yankees)

[bombCanada]

Eddmonton covers on the PL. Sweet!

[rkelly110]

Edmonton, winner winner McDonald's dinner.

The 1.44 system didn't fair too well last night going 2 of 5 on +PL and 1 of 5 on ML.

Wash. Caps are on the way back, bomb. Get 'em.

Won a little at the casino last night, didn't like the live tables, played video roulette.

[bombCanada]

Florida tonight

[rkelly110]

Florida didn't come through and neither did the 1.44 system.

The over 1.44 system is still in the money, 31 of 51 @ 61% for Dec.
Using the same odds to pick dogs is 24 of 51 @ 47% for Dec.

[bombCanada]

Florida didn't come through and neither did the 1.44 system.

The over 1.44 system is still in the money, 31 of 51 @ 61% for Dec.
Using the same odds to pick dogs is 24 of 51 @ 47% for Dec.

Both of those are well profitable using Labouchere for money management. Not sure about flat betting, tho.

[bombCanada]

Edmonton beat Kings on PL last night. Makes Big Dog 52-30 on the year.

NHL quiet the next couple of nights, back in action the 26th. Merry Christmas!

[bombCanada]

Edmonton (again) tonight against Vancouver. They're 8-2 in our Big Dog system.

5 plays for rkelly's 1.44 system tonight.

So I've been thinking about the 1.44 system, and it defies logic... puckline odds are lowest on games where the moneylines are highest. The moneylines are highest on the games where the extra points are least likely to matter. Someone help me think this through.

[rkelly110]

I thought I posted for the 23rd, guess not. +PL over 1.44 went 5 of 7, ML went 4 of 7.

I used the same system in baseball. I don't have the numbers in front of me, I think it went
65%. I was using +RL over 1.44. Using the 1.44 as a guide, ML went around 50%.

I don't understand it either, just something I've noticed. It's better to get the extra 1.5
PL with the same risk as betting ML favs.

[Axis]

Lookin' for that straight up Edmonton win tonight!

[easywinner]

Is anybody that follows this thread following the exact system the OP floridagolfer was using, where he was playing just the 1 biggest underdog of the day on the +1.5PL and only when there were more than 4 games that day? I'm curious what just that one game each day is at win % wise. It was like 90% early in the year and then he quit posting, you guys that are in daily keeping the thread going are playing multiple games a day so you have different systems and win percentages than his system I'm assuming, right. I'm curious how the OP's system is doing?

[bombCanada]

Is anybody that follows this thread following the exact system the OP floridagolfer was using, where he was playing just the 1 biggest underdog of the day on the +1.5PL and only when there were more than 4 games that day?

Yes. While things may vary slightly based on opening v. closing lines, esp. on days when there are multiple biggest dogs, according to my records the original thread system is 53-30.

[bombCanada]

I thought I posted for the 23rd, guess not. +PL over 1.44 went 5 of 7, ML went 4 of 7.

I used the same system in baseball. I don't have the numbers in front of me, I think it went
65%. I was using +RL over 1.44. Using the 1.44 as a guide, ML went around 50%.

OK, well we can do a thread for baseball also. I tracked biggest favorite at the beginning of the season last year and quit after some changes at work made keeping track of it impossible... baseball is hard because there are so many day games. But I've changed jobs since last year, this year might be different.

[bombCanada]

I don't understand it either, just something I've noticed. It's better to get the extra 1.5
PL with the same risk as betting ML favs.

You "just noticed it", uh? I guess it's all about the eyes you look through.

I find it curious that RL works the same as PL tho, because the games are fundamentally different at the end... Hockey has a system in which a game must end by exactly 1 goal if it has ended as a tie in regulation, and goals must be scored one at a time. Baseball has a system in which just because a games ends in a tie in regulation, it can still be won by multiple runs, and further, it's only sudden death in the bottom of the inning.

It's another one of those things I want to think about until I understand it, and along comes rkelly just drawing a line somewhere and saying "look, bet above this line and it works!" Makes my head pop.

That said, the 1.44 system sure is simple, and in my book simple is key. It's the opposite of those trends football touts use, like "when a team plays a division opponent on the road using their second string quarterback in the snow and the opposing QB has leg cramps, they're 9-1 over the last 80 years." I think simple stands the test of time, and if the stuff we're doing in this thread isn't repeatable, then the world is doomed.

[rkelly110]

When you buy enough "systems" you sort of blend them together. I have mutiple systems I track.
I print out the days teams and odds around 10 am. The end of the day, I write all the scores
down and see how each system is doing. The over 1.44 is just one I keep track of. That's how
I notice stuff like that. I always thought the odds the books give, tells who is going to win.

I was a ML fav bettor until I saw for the same or less odds, I could get the same or better
win rate and get extra points/ runs to boot.

As I've read countless of times, use the KISS method. Keep It Simple Stupid!

Edmonton winner on +PL. Over 1.44 +PL went 1 of 3.

[bombCanada]

So you've developed a daily routine which helps to make things obvious to you. Good for you. Continued good luck and thanks for sharing the 1.44 system with us. I'll continue to watch with interest.

[bombCanada]

Tonight's Big Dog is the NY Islanders... feels like a sure loser, but they beat Montreal 4-1 last night, yet more proof that even a blind squirrel finds a few nuts.

Islanders are 5-6 in the Big Dog system. They were strong back in October and then faded away...

[rkelly110]

You're doing a good job on the individual teams and biggest ML dog on PL, W/L records.
Information we can all use.

Come on NY Islanders!

[Axis]

Good win last night...let's keep it going Islanders! The Isles have bit me in the ass a few times this year while they were going through that horrendous streak...tonight seems like a wonderful time to turn things around

Great work on the thread rkelly...

[icecapper]

Might hop on board what's the record/UNITS this season?

[bombCanada]

Might hop on board what's the record/UNITS this season?

The biggest dog system is 53-30 as mentioned above. I don't know what the flat bet units are. The units using my own Labouchere line system are 75 base units to date. Over that time I've completed 6 lines and raised my betting unit 3 times such that a minimum bet is now 5 times the base bet... for example, if my day 1 unit was $2, my minimum bet is now $10. Longest win streak has been 10 and longest losing streak has been 4. Biggest juice play was -265, and largest single amount risked was 60x base unit (it was a winner).

So, the system works, but it's a high juice system and you better start small or start with a really big roll if you're going to see it through.

[bombCanada]

Might hop on board what's the record/UNITS this season?

Is you avatar Don Cherry with a goatee ? What an odd sight. Of course, I haven't seen him on TV since I moved away from MI about 15 years ago, so for all I know he's had it for 14 years.

[rkelly110]

Thanks Axis but, the bomb has his stuff together more than I. His record keeping is top
notch and he has his labby kicking butt. Something I need to get a handle on.

GL tonight.

[icecapper]

Thanks for the clarification seems like a good system I will continue to follow your progress. Haha yes grapes has rocked the goat for a while now, still never runs out of overblown old-time hockey stories though.

[bombCanada]

Thanks for the clarification seems like a good system I will continue to follow your progress. Haha yes grapes has rocked the goat for a while now, still never runs out of overblown old-time hockey stories though.

I loved Don Cherry... always ALWAYS scandalized by and/or about something. Supremely entertaining. One of the few things I miss about not living in Michigan, altho I could probably find it online if I bothered to look.

[rkelly110]

Islanders couldn't pull it off. 1.44 system 1 of 2. ML 1.44 1 of 2.

Keep an eye out for the day's biggest ML underdog for all sports, looks promising.
1 of 2 NFL on Sun. 1 of 1 last night B ball.

[bombCanada]

Big dog tonight is Atlanta at Pittsburgh. They're 3-1 as biggest dog. Good luck!

[rkelly110]

Atlanta sucked. The 1.44 system busted too. 0 of 2.

The other big dogs in NBA and NFL came through. Toronto and Minnesota. Both won SU.
Big dog in NCAAB ( Depaul) won by 1 pt playing the +PS. I played all 3. Something to watch.