Playing the day's biggest ML underdog on the PL

[bombCanada]

Atlanta sucked. The 1.44 system busted too. 0 of 2.

The other big dogs in NBA and NFL came through. Toronto and Minnesota. Both won SU.
Big dog in NCAAB ( Depaul) won by 1 pt playing the +PS. I played all 3. Something to watch.

Yea, Atlanta didn't do well.

I'm always interested in exploring other dog angles... it's the time to backtest which presents a problem. But I'll get there.

Tonight's play is home dog Islanders. Good luck to us all, we need a win!

[icecapper]

Tough game today to hang your hat on. Going to need a big performance from DiPietro, best of luck!

[rkelly110]

Dec, NBA biggest dog on +PS is 11 of 26 42%, not good, except for your labby.
A capper named James Jones is selling a system for $97 for an NBA big dog chase system.
I saw it somewhere in the forum. Do a search.

Look for ML odds decimal, 5 or above and bet on +PS. I think you're suppose to buy 3 points.
Another high juice system. I've been putting a unit on those games after I cap them w/o
buying points, except the hook, if the points I get are even.

Todays play for NBA is New Jersey +10 (5.75), after capping, looks good.
NCAAB is Miss. St +15 (10.00), didn't cap yet. I would buy at least 2 points for NCAA.

Too late for NFL.

Islanders, after capping, not so good. Maybe we can squeak it out. GL

Unless my book screwed up, there's a BIG disparity on the Rangers/ Devils game.
My capping says the odds are backwards. Jump all over the Rangers.

[bombCanada]

the big home dog wins in a shootout! I love this thread and the guy who started it is long gone... too bad.

[bombCanada]

The 1.44 system also did well last night, with 2 PL and 2 ML winners. rkelly have you tracked this from the beginning of the season?

[rkelly110]

Yes I have. Oct. 35 of 52 67%. Nov. 43 of 64 67%. Dec. to date 38 of 62 61%

I only had one game that fit the 1.44 last night, Islanders. I cheated and bet ML. whew.

NBA's biggest dog laid down and died. I put Miss. St. as the largest dog in Boys BB,
which lost. Before 7 pm, my book had another game with higher ML odds than the above
game. Wake Forest, it won by 1/2 pt w/o buying. I bought 1 pt and won by 1.5.

So, 2 of 3 on big dog all sports system last night.

[rkelly110]

Largest ML odds betting on +PS for NFL, this season to date is, 15 of 23 65%
Largest ML odds decimal 5.00 and over is 10 of 15 67%.

Just an FYI. Using a labby, you would be filthy rich.

[bombCanada]

Islanders opened at -175 and odds got better... Carolina opened at -225 and odds got worse, moving to worse than 1.44 decimal. It's one of those gray areas we'll always have to deal with with a system where the price is an important part of play selection. It worked either way.

So decimal 5 is +400? ie you get your 1 Euro back + 4 more? NFL should be easy to back test because there are so few games relative to other sports. However, after several years of NFL wagering, I'm just about through. It's so unpredictable (to me) and ther are so few games (I'm repeating myself) that you can't really clear lab lines. I'm inclined to bet small on my favorite teams and leave it at that. NBA and NHL are more than enough action for me and my bankroll.

I track but don't play NBA biggest dog, and so far this year its 31-28, which is absolutely profitable with lab lines but isn't setting the world on fire. I'd so love to backtest more, but time time time...

[bombCanada]

So up until now I haven't had to have a hard and fast set of rules on how to choose the biggest dog of the night, and today I have a problem... do I use opening lines, which make Montreal the dog (but just barely), or current lines, which make San Jose the big dog? and I'm looking now because I won't be able to do this much closer to game time... what to do what to do....

San Jose! I'm tired of Montreal. They can't beat the spread for squat lately.

[rkelly110]

Go get 'em bomb, I'm laying off tonight.

Only found one big dog in boy BB. Central Michigan +23 (36-1 odds) I put a unit on it.

[bombCanada]

San Jose wins outright

and it looks like 1.44 system was sidelined last night, no qualifying plays.

[rkelly110]

Way to go, buddy. Cent. Mich, didn't work out, lost by 1.5 after buying a point.

[bombCanada]

Way to go, buddy. Cent. Mich, didn't work out, lost by 1.5 after buying a point.

Thanks for that, the San Jose call was a go-with-the-gut call.

I have zero grasp of college sports. I stay away until I see something different. Better luck next time.

[bombCanada]

Big Dog NHL of the night is our friend the NY Islanders at Detroit, by a mile... they're at +270 ML, at least double everyone else on the board. Good luck!

[rkelly110]

Let's get that doggy in the window!

NBA dogs are New Jersey and Phila tied at 5.50.
NCAAB dogs at press time are S. Florida and Indiana at 8.50 each.
I'm doing one unit on each.

I don't know about college either, just using the big dog system.

We have 2,300 views. Are any of you guys viewing, using our picks?
If so, we would like to hear from you.

Enjoy your hang overs tomorrow, Happy New Year!

[chizzy]

Let's get that doggy in the window! NBA dogs are New Jersey and Phila tied at 5.50. NCAAB dogs at press time are S. Florida and Indiana at 8.50 each. I'm doing one unit on each. I don't know about college either, just using the big dog system. We have 2,300 views. Are any of you guys viewing, using our picks? If so, we would like to hear from you. Enjoy your hang overs tomorrow, Happy New Year!

I'm loving the idea of the better than 1.44 odds system and even hitting just over 50% on the labby is starting to work out well for me. so thanks for this system. I have a question... when you say odds of 1.44 and better, do you mean 1.44, 1.45, 1.46 etc? the islanders was a nice ML hit today.

[chizzy]

and are you playing the largest ML underdog on the spread in the NBA? and hows that performing?

[easywinner]

Nice win by the Isles tonight for the system. I didn't see that coming but the system sure did and the system is awesome. This is my favorite thread on here, i like reading it everyday. Keep up the good work guys. Maybe once we all get rich after winning for awhile we can meet up at an NHL game or in Vegas or something cool. Happy New Year all.

[rkelly110]

Thanks for stopping in guys, hope you brought the new year in with a bang!

Chizzy, it's actually 1.45 and above decimal odds. I've seen 1.44's hit though.
Check above post #113 for NBA dogs.

Sounds like a winner, easy. Haven't been to Vegas yet.

2 for 2 NBA big dogs yesterday on +PS.
1 for 2 NCAAB
1 for 1 NHL

4 of 5 all sports dogs. Yeah baby!

[bombCanada]

As has been discussed, our NHL big dog, NY Islanders, won outright last night, which seems to happen a lot in the NHL.

That makes this system 18-10 for Dec, and 56-32 for the regular season. Using my money management, which is Lab line done my way (can you hear Sinatra behind me?), Dec is +45 base units and the season is +85 base units. I've cleared 8 lines so far. Longest win streak was 10, and there have been 2 losing streaks of 4 each.

Tonight we have the NJ Devils at Carolina. Impossibly hard to believe, this is the Devils first appearance for the season in this system as a dog. They were the other side of an EDM play back in Nov. I have to find the time to look into this more...

[bombCanada]

Sounds like a winner, easy. Haven't been to Vegas yet.

You may not have to go, either.

Last I heard, they were shooting for sports wagering in Atlantic City. They tried to get sports wagering in Delaware last year, and after an expensive court fight that made it to the federal appeals level, they found that Delaware could only offer what they had when some federal law was passed way back when, which was 3 or more game parlays and teasers. Blech. Would be interested to see NJ take it a step further.

[rkelly110]

Feeling devilish tonight! I'm going to try a labby for the new year, I might need help.

Using the Big Dog NHL system, I want to start off to win $5. My line will look like this.
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 I want to start a short line because, I don't know how long the line
will get.

NBA big dog tonight is Cleveland +13.5 (11-1)
NCAAF big dog is Connecticut +16 (6-1)
NCAAB already played and lost. ILL/ Chicago +16 (13-1)

Lets get 'em!

[Mr KLC]

I'm with you guys on the Devils tonight. Not a good start though. 1-0 Hurricanes in first minute and a half. Come on, Devils!!

[RbN]

Brodeur, what a complete tard. 3-0 behind already.

[rkelly110]

Be patient, we can do this.

[chizzy]

so are you taking the biggest NBA underdog on the ML or the PS or both??

[rkelly110]

+PS only chizzy, on NBA. Cleveland winner!

Damn Devils, if we could've held 'em to 4, we would've won that.

OK, question on my labby, I paid $9.50 to win $5. I lost. How do I add that to the line?
2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 9.5? My next bet would be to win $12?
OR
Divide my loss into 4 and add that to the line? If I did that, it would take forever to clear
a line but, would keep my bets low.

Thanks

[chizzy]

+PS only chizzy, on NBA. Cleveland winner! Damn Devils, if we could've held 'em to 4, we would've won that. OK, question on my labby, I paid $9.50 to win $5. I lost. How do I add that to the line? 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 9.5? My next bet would be to win $12? OR Divide my loss into 4 and add that to the line? If I did that, it would take forever to clear a line but, would keep my bets low. Thanks

you can do it anyway you like. but the general way to it is to add the 9.5 and play to win 12 next time. makes the bets get a bit big when youre paying less than even odds. but the goal is to not add to many numbers and have trouble clearing the line, which splitting your losses would do.

[bombCanada]

2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 I want to start a short line because, I don't know how long the line
will get.

OK I'll help. Starting short does nothing to keep your line from getting long. What it does do is causes you to need to answer the question of "how much bigger do I want my next bet to be?" sooner. Your line gets one longer for each loss, and 2 shorter for each win.

Your proposed line means that you're content to win $10 before you either repeat the line or increase your bet size. That's not a lot unless your bankroll is very large, in which case you're growing your roll at an impossibly slow rate. If you start with a line of 10 2.5's, then you're waiting until you've won $25 before you increase your bet size.

My suggestion is to experiment with line lengths using a series of real live wins and losses. Go to any scoreboard page, sbr or covers for example, pick a game a day at random for a couple of months, and run lines of various lengths to see how it works. The system only works when you complete a line, and depending on the series of wins and losses, and the odds for each play, the bets you need to make to get to completion can vary widely. Or even better, pick the best team, a team with a .500 record, and the worst team in the league. This will all take time but will make you a more confident Lab line user.

[bombCanada]

you can do it anyway you like. but the general way to it is to add the 9.5 and play to win 12 next time. makes the bets get a bit big when youre paying less than even odds. but the goal is to not add to many numbers and have trouble clearing the line, which splitting your losses would do.

I agree that you can do it any way you like. I disagree on your goal statement. The line is not an end but a means to an end. A Lab line is a system of betsizing which allows you to achieve a pre-established profit target at a win rate of 34% or greater. The pre-established profit is the goal, at least in my way of thinking. As long as you are confident that your system will win at more than 34%, you will make your goal.

In a thread on a different board, there's a guy running lines on NBA teams who figures on average it takes 17 games to clear a 10 number line. He's using 10 as his number, and he's banged through 4 or 5 lines since I started following the thread. It's a very effective demonstration. Each time he clears a line, he's won $100. To my way of thinking, this guy uses the line as intended... as a way to size bets to win a pre-established goal profit.

There's also a guy running a line on the Montreal Canadiens PL who's not doing so great right now... but he will eventually make his goal.

[bombCanada]

So the Devils lost last night, but the system had 3 wins in a row before that, so no complaints!

Another one of those interesting judgement-call type of days. Per current quotes at Pinnacle, there are 3 teams essentially tied for big dog: Philadelphia +127, Dallas +126, and Columbus +125. Because lines this close to even money mean the puckline odds are huge (well over -200), I think I'll take my wager and divide it across the 3 teams.

[rkelly110]

Is that JW you're referring to? He does have a handle on lab lines and so do you.
From the discussions on labby's, I'm seeing most people say, whatever works for you.
Using a money management strategy. I want to keep my bets at a max of 10% of
my roll. So, if my bets get too big, spread out my losses in the line? Like my 2nd
example from above?

Believe me, after the shellacking I took last month, I'm happy to win $10 from a labby.

[bombCanada]

Not sure who JW is, so we're referring to different threads. Google NBA Labby.

If you have a line like this: 1-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-4-5-6

The key is to take 2 numbers off for a win. So if you know that you want your maximum bet to be a 5, then you have a problem.

You could make your line: 1-1-1-2-2-2-2-3-4-4-4 for example.

Or, you could retire inside numbers first... instead of betting 7 (1+6) and ending with the line: x-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-4-5-x

You could bet 5, and if you win, you then have: x-1-1-1-1-1-2-3-x-5-6

Make sense?

[rkelly110]

Yes, that makes sense and would fit my money management. Thanks bomb.

GL on your plays today, I'm laying off hockey today. No +1.5 lines @ 1.45.

Will lay off the big dog in NFL also. Last games, don't know what will happen.

NBA's big dog is Memphis.

NCAAB isn't doing good with the big dog. I bought Rich Allen's NCAAB system last year.
He had points spreads that was researched, that hit 55% or higher. Last year was a
disaster.

This year I've been following just the +13 part of his system. I wasn't keeping track,
so I can't give numbers but, I'll go back and see what I bet on to give an idea what
was won.

Last night there were two games at +13 and 13.5. Illinois St. and Bowling Green.
They both won. Didn't see anything today.

His findings were +13 @ home is 63.6% and +13 away is 58.2%. Most of the games
I saw were away games. He recommends buying the hook on those games.

[chizzy]

I agree that you can do it any way you like. I disagree on your goal statement. The line is not an end but a means to an end. A Lab line is a system of betsizing which allows you to achieve a pre-established profit target at a win rate of 34% or greater. The pre-established profit is the goal, at least in my way of thinking. As long as you are confident that your system will win at more than 34%, you will make your goal. In a thread on a different board, there's a guy running lines on NBA teams who figures on average it takes 17 games to clear a 10 number line. He's using 10 as his number, and he's banged through 4 or 5 lines since I started following the thread. It's a very effective demonstration. Each time he clears a line, he's won $100. To my way of thinking, this guy uses the line as intended... as a way to size bets to win a pre-established goal profit. There's also a guy running a line on the Montreal Canadiens PL who's not doing so great right now... but he will eventually make his goal.

i fully agree with you here and also love the fact that at even 35% you can make profit. (takes awhile but still works)
i didnt actually mean that its better to keep your starting line shorter, what i meant was if you lose a bet it doesn't generally pay to split your loss and add four numbers to your line (all of the time anyway), when you are only removing two. otherwise you will never win. i play with a 6 line labby, and it can make a bet a bit more reasonable to play if you split them from time to time when they get too high but not always. as you said, it pays to play around with the numbers you use on your line so your bets dont get out of control with a few losses.