Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[u21c3f6]

I don't know what else to say. The above without a whole lot of caveats is just so unbelievably wrong it is mind numbing.

I am not trying to be insulting but there are many that have responded in this thread that really need to reconsider their beliefs.

Joe.

[kenwilber]

Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at pinnacle..

I agree with you 100%
But you forget to mention one important thing: the importance of bankroll managment and variance that comes in here.
If I have an amazing oportunity to take the 2.0 line at soft book (ev) which is 1.6 at pinnacle (~7% arb) and my bankroll is 20k I will surely not bet the whole bankroll on it because if I lose, my game is over.
But if you bet cleverly max 1% of your bankroll using this strategy your balance will go up faster than comparing to classic "old fashioned" surebetting (covering at pinnacle).

[Topo]

So then you never actually got the wrong bet side? They took it off the board before you even bet it?

That's right. Even though I came out well ahead, it scared me. I'm not one to bet a huge chunk of my bankroll, so I didn't like the potential for having half of an arbitrage play dropped.

[OMGRandyJackson]

I had placed the eventual winning bet first. When I tried to make the eventual losing bet, the book accepted it initially, but then took the market right off the board. They never put it back up. So they didn't just void my bet, they removed the line altogether. I'm guessing I wasn't the only one hitting that side.

So then you never actually got the wrong bet side? They took it off the board before you even bet it?

[Topo]

No I get that but in Topo's post he said he had a losing bet voided, which is very very strange..Thats why I guessed it was voided before game ended or started.

I had placed the eventual winning bet first. When I tried to make the eventual losing bet, the book accepted it initially, but then took the market right off the board. They never put it back up. So they didn't just void my bet, they removed the line altogether. I'm guessing I wasn't the only one hitting that side.

[faststeady]

mixing tennis rules is fun

[OMGRandyJackson]

Some books are really dikkheads. Some void your bet when game is over, lol. Seriously.

No I get that but in Topo's post he said he had a losing bet voided, which is very very strange..Thats why I guessed it was voided before game ended or started.

[Sawyer]

Sawyer,do I assume correctly, that because of this tactic you lost some money leaving Real Sociedad unhedged?

Dont know how is it so hard to explain to some posters this tactic, how they cant think logically...You dont need high bankroll nor stop placing max bets on soft books, just decide how much you can afford to lose per each arb(or now bet?) if it wins at sharp book.Let say you bankroll is 1kE, each arb you can hedge so that if it wins at a sharp book you lose 10E.In that way, you are basically betting that sharp books have more correct odds than soft books, which is true, or you doubt that?And there isnt remote possibility to lose your bankroll doing this, it is still risk free.

Well, I said I usually cover my action in soccer since it's very unpredictable sometimes. Always hedge in soccer and tennis as long as you don't have any opinion about event. Sometimes, I like chances for X side to win and I find good odds, I don't hedge. Let it ride baby!

I'm not expecting everybody to understand. It's not complicated but it's not possible to understand it without living it. When you experience it, you realize. As long as you bet value lines/odds, you will be plus! Period. Except tennis, lol. I love tennis! Line movement, Moneyway, beating closing line don't mean a thing in tennis. It's an unique sport for betting but people really hate tennis when Nadal, Raonic, Gasquest lose, lol.

[Sawyer]

Some books are really dikkheads. Some void your bet when game is over, lol. Seriously.

Some steal your money and close your account. It happens. It happened to me too.

[OMGRandyJackson]

hahha , weird to hear about a book that has voided a lost bet.
Has happened to me 4 times that bwin has cancelled my bets (after the match) and of course they were winners.They never cancel lost bets

The bet was probably cancelled before the game was over.

[pellumb341]

Originally Posted by Topo
I had to stop arbing because I was constantly worried one bookmaker would cancel one of my bets (happened once, but I won my other side). I think playing the value side with a controlled portion of your bank roll is actually a safer play.

hahha , weird to hear about a book that has voided a lost bet.
Has happened to me 4 times that bwin has cancelled my bets (after the match) and of course they were winners.They never cancel lost bets

[OMGRandyJackson]

Why take the risk you ask? Easy answer: Limits. Books don't have unlimited wager limits.

Don't look in short term. Look over long haul. Sure, a value bet won't always hit. But that's not important. I'm interested in more realistic things. In real world, a bet cannot win always, everytime. I'm happy with a profit over long haul, %56-58 for -110 and %61 for -125 is enough to make decent profit.

The only sport where I cover my action is: Soccer! Soccer sux..not for me, but for betting public. Soccer is where the books make the most killing. Masses are headed for slaughterhouse and books take away your money so easy like taking a candy from a baby.

Today, Real Sociedad was -135. Thru the start of the game, Sociedad was -180! ( It was -200 in some books!) Result? 10-Men Levante survives versus Sociedad, FT 1:1.

Yes but your still assuming you will hit enough value bets to be profitable long term. How can you guarantee that? BTW Im not trying to pick a side, Im quite uneducated on all of this, Im just trying to ask questions to better understand your view and an arbs view.

I had to stop arbing because I was constantly worried one bookmaker would cancel one of my bets (happened once, but I won my other side). I think playing the value side with a controlled portion of your bank roll is actually a safer play.

Do you remember the odds (both sides) of the cancelled bet? And was it cancelled for a "bad line" reason?

[filipinho]

Sawyer,do I assume correctly, that because of this tactic you lost some money leaving Real Sociedad unhedged?


Dont know how is it so hard to explain to some posters this tactic, how they cant think logically...You dont need high bankroll nor stop placing max bets on soft books, just decide how much you can afford to lose per each arb(or now bet?) if it wins at sharp book.Let say you bankroll is 1kE, each arb you can hedge so that if it wins at a sharp book you lose 10E.In that way, you are basically betting that sharp books have more correct odds than soft books, which is true, or you doubt that?And there isnt remote possibility to lose your bankroll doing this, it is still risk free.

[Topo]

Good discussion in this thread, but there have been a few statements that arbitrage's advantage is that it is risk free and thus allows you to bet more of your bank roll than if you just played one side of a value bet. This assertion ignores the fact that arbing is inherently risky due to rapid line adjustments (before you can place the second bet) and bookmaker cancellations. I had to stop arbing because I was constantly worried one bookmaker would cancel one of my bets (happened once, but I won my other side). I think playing the value side with a controlled portion of your bank roll is actually a safer play.

[Sawyer]

There is absolutely no guarantee that lines at -125 vs -200 at other books will ALWAYS hit. Why take the risk of possible better profits when you can just take guaranteed profits?

Why take the risk you ask? Easy answer: Limits. Books don't have unlimited wager limits.

Don't look in short term. Look over long haul. Sure, a value bet won't always hit. But that's not important. I'm interested in more realistic things. In real world, a bet cannot win always, everytime. I'm happy with a profit over long haul, %56-58 for -110 and %61 for -125 is enough to make decent profit.

The only sport where I cover my action is: Soccer! Soccer sux..not for me, but for betting public. Soccer is where the books make the most killing. Masses are headed for slaughterhouse and books take away your money so easy like taking a candy from a baby.

Today, Real Sociedad was -135. Thru the start of the game, Sociedad was -180! ( It was -200 in some books!) Result? 10-Men Levante survives versus Sociedad, FT 1:1.

[OMGRandyJackson]

Example

Let's say X bet is listed -200 at Pinnacle. If you're picking this at -125, you will make money over long haul.

There is absolutely no guarantee that lines at -125 vs -200 at other books will ALWAYS hit. Why take the risk of possible better profits when you can just take guaranteed profits?

[ElCartofor]

frongi,

given the hypothesis that you have no limits and that you do not know which of the bookies is overevaluating odds, you are correct and arbing gives more money back, without any chance related risk.

Given the hypothesis that you do have limits and that bookie "A" usuly dosen't overevaluates odds(cause you notice that after a number of 10k bets with that bookie you are losing money to them and winning at other bookies), you will win more money overtime if you do not place the part of the arb with the "A" bookie, but you do so with chance related risk.

[frongi]

using the infamous coin example of +200 heads and +100 on tails. Kelly says to bet 1/4 of your bankroll. Expected value = .25*(.5*2+.5*-1) = .25*(.5)=.125. Or you can arb and put 1/2 your bankroll on each. Expected value = .5*(.5*2-.5*1) + .5*(.5*1-.5*1) = .5*.5=.25.

Of course you need to consider bet limits, how long until the event (no one wants to tie up 100% of their bankroll in a future), and deposit/withdrawal fees. but mathematically you will profit more from arbing.

[onemoregoal]

Why are some European books so bad, is what I don't understand?

I mean if they can figure out who to ban/limit why cant they just check the lines and see if they are off or not?
And why do soft books insist on taking bets on leagues/sports that they have proven to be awful at? They must be limiting players who have taken bets on similar sports/markets - so why not invest into improving their system - or just take those particular sports/leagues off their book?
They are a sportsbook, after all -
Not complaining but I just don't understand why somewhere like BWIN insists on taking bets in the Albanian football league or something similar, just let it go BWIN, let it go...

[Fall778899]

Bingo

[gaebiskon]

The problem with this approach is most books limit you once you start winning.

[ElCartofor]

- arbing generates constant, riskfree profits, but less profit then value betting
- value betting HAS RISKS, needs Bank Roll management, but gives more profit

- you can't lose any money when arbing cause of CHANCE
- you can lose all your money with value betting cause of CHANCE (although the probability gets smaller and smaller the bigger the bankroll gets, the posibility of losing all your money cause of chance, exists)

- with arbing there is no need for risk management
- with value betting risk management is essential

Conclusion?

Arbing = sure less profit = how Betfair exchange makes money
Value Betting = small risk, but bigger profit = how Pinnacle makes money

*sure profit = the absence of chance

Giving all of the variables involved, we can clearly state that the profit from Arbing is a strictly increasing function, while Value Betting profit is not, although it tends to be.

[Kolotoure]

There are definitely situations where you should be arbing due to EG>EV but generally it is a bad idea

[Sawyer]

Hi. I really think you're the one making a mistake here...There is no way you can lose your money as long as you make a profit on every arb. Yes, maybe you will run out of funds at Pinnacle, but you will have a lot bigger ones at the other bookies, so who's stopping you to withdraw some of that and refill your pinaccle account? You would still be making profit.

No mistake here. In both ways, you're making profit over long haul. In Way #1, you win 20k, in Way #2, you win 40. Why pick less money? Of course, there will be times where you will lose at other books but over long haul, you're "doomed" to win at the other bookie since you're betting a value line. The only case I don't do it is, some markets (some soccer leagues and tennis) where weight of money tells nothing.

Creating a "free bet" is also a nice way. Less risk. It can be prefererred too. Remember, the name of the thread applies only in big arbitrages with +%4. You can hedge equal if arb is low, like say %1.5 or %2. No serious edge if arb is %1-1.5.

Yesterday, I picked Washington Wizards at +140. Amazing price. Chicago was -117. Wizards won easily. Of course, you can hedge for "no stress" or you can create a "freebet". Choice is yours.

I wish everyone a profitable sunday. GL!

[pellumb341]

i have my own unique style of arbing, basically it says maximize the profits on favorites. It looks like this; if i find odds at book A at 1.50, and at book B at 4.00, and bet 100$ at book A, and on book B I should bet 37.5$ to be 12.5$ in profit. However, the odds suggest that the first team is much more likely to win the match, so in this specific case I place 33$ bet on the second team. If first team wins, my total stake was 133$ and the winnings are 150$, giving me a profit of 17$. If second team wins, which is less likely, i am down 1$. I don't know if there is a name for this sort of arbing, but it is giving me solid results.

i have also suggested your idea some posts before

Like you have said ,long term balance at Pinnacle is and will be forever negative.

So, if you don't mind , i would give you an advice : Wager at Pinnacle the amount that break you even (hope i have said it correctly)

EXAMPLE

Over 2.5 @ 2.10 ( local )
Under 2.5 @ 2.00 (pinnacle)

Put 1 unit at your local ---> 1 * 2.10 = 2.1 units
Put 1 unit at pinnacle ----> 1 * 2.00 = 2 units

Outcome: over 2.5 ---> +0.1 profit
under 2.5 ----> break even

[jumpsquat]

Hello to everyone, nice thread is going on here and i think i can contribute. at least a bit. First of all, the idea for me is stupid. What if the odds that drop fail 20 times in a row? you lose most of, or even your entire balance. The point of arbing is risk free money, without having to worry about anything. why not use it?

i have my own unique style of arbing, basically it says maximize the profits on favorites. It looks like this; if i find odds at book A at 1.50, and at book B at 4.00, and bet 100$ at book A, and on book B I should bet 37.5$ to be 12.5$ in profit. However, the odds suggest that the first team is much more likely to win the match, so in this specific case I place 33$ bet on the second team. If first team wins, my total stake was 133$ and the winnings are 150$, giving me a profit of 17$. If second team wins, which is less likely, i am down 1$. I don't know if there is a name for this sort of arbing, but it is giving me solid results.

Regards

[tto827]

''Do you have the proof? I have. I don't think you're making arbitrage bets between a square book and pinnacle, otherwise you would understand me. %99 of arbitrage/surebet players are complaining about same thing. Their balance in other books increase while they're losing money at Pinnacle. I had to deposit my Pinnacle account twice this month.''




Hi. I really think you're the one making a mistake here...There is no way you can lose your money as long as you make a profit on every arb. Yes, maybe you will run out of funds at Pinnacle, but you will have a lot bigger ones at the other bookies, so who's stopping you to withdraw some of that and refill your pinaccle account? You would still be making profit.

Yes, but if his balance continues to grow at the other book. He clearly has an edge there, and would make more of a profit if he didn't bet at pinnacle. Now this approach does have more risk involved, but it definitely is more +EV to use pinnacle to find value elsewhere, than to use Pinny to hedge once you have found value elsewhere.

[cosminza1]

''Do you have the proof? I have. I don't think you're making arbitrage bets between a square book and pinnacle, otherwise you would understand me. %99 of arbitrage/surebet players are complaining about same thing. Their balance in other books increase while they're losing money at Pinnacle. I had to deposit my Pinnacle account twice this month.''




Hi. I really think you're the one making a mistake here...There is no way you can lose your money as long as you make a profit on every arb. Yes, maybe you will run out of funds at Pinnacle, but you will have a lot bigger ones at the other bookies, so who's stopping you to withdraw some of that and refill your pinaccle account? You would still be making profit.

[pellumb341]

why don't you post some chinese basketball picks ? do bookies have chinese basketball league ?

[Sawyer]

sawyer, was the line -3 on 49ers vs packers?

It was +2,5 then moved to +3 thru the game time. Packers lost, Chargers won.

Great stuff Sawyer !!!

Thanks.

NHL starts tomorrow. Pinnacle offers Over 6 for Pit-Phi at -125 (and Under 6 at +115) while I have Over at my local, priced +100. So play is Pit-Phi Over 6. It doesn't win all the time but most of time, it wins. Pinnacle knows the outcome of games, seriously, lol. (Serious)

This situation works best in basketball. Not so good in soccer. Very bad in handball/volleyball either. Not so reliable in tennis also. The best field it works is Chinese Basketball League. In Chinese League, line movement -almost- always wins, very very interesting.

[Fall778899]

Great stuff Sawyer !!!

[gaebiskon]

sawyer, was the line -3 on 49ers vs packers?

[Sawyer]

J
5. I find arbing less interesting, which would disappoint a purist looking only for max growth. Assuming I could find decent arb opportunities; with my roll size, arbing would tie up my whole roll and prevent me from betting my standard plays.

You got a point: A decent bankroll size. If your bankroll is lower then 20k, arbitrage will not be very useful for you. Even with a 40k bankroll, I had days where I have to pass since my Pinnacle was zero.

Arbing requires a serious cash amount. I used to keep some of my money at bank when I was a straight bettor, -you don't need to keep all your cash in books if you're betting since you don't use remaining cash- now I keep a very low amount at bank since I need all the money.Money is never enough. More money, more profits. Always REINVEST YOUR PROFITS, period. But don't forget to buy yourself some gits too, hehe.

I wish everyone a profitable weekend. Guys, please don't make this thread gay. Don't speak if you don't have any arbitrage experience.

Btw, ACCORDING TO PINNACLE LEAN, Green bay will cover this weekend. Well, let's see..

[Sawyer]

Sawyer , GL in your arber life and enjoy it as long as it is possible I am an (ex?!) arber , i understand everything you say and you are 100% correct.I don't know why people posting in this thread find it difficult to understand / believe it.Maybe the reason is that they have never arbed and have zero experience.

I have arbed with online world wide bookies and the conclusion is the same : Long term balance in ASIANS bookies is negative , and Long term balance in EUROPEANS bookies is pozitive.

Why some people in this thread find it difficult to understand it? Easy. They don't live it, lol. Maybe they have some arbitrage experience but not deep. Anyone who is using Pinnacle for arbitrage will live this and will undertsand if a decent IQ level is available of course, lol.

Conclusion is the same man, Well said. One of most wisest posts in this thread probably. Well Said! Well Said! I have arber friends, everybody complaining about losing funds at pinnacle side, lol. Is it a coinsidence? I don't think so..

Bookies are not stupid.They have software which shows them the arbs ; they recognize arbers because arbers are always getting soft lines.They allow you 1 month,2 months...then sooner or later they kick your ass.If i worked for a bookie , i would figure it out immediately if you are a arber or not.

Of course, NOT all books are stupid but believe me, there's many stupid books. Yeah, they're stupid. The true/real/universal price is 1,50 (-200) and they're offering 1,92 (-108) for it. They offer same odds for odd/even in hockey&baseball, lol. They set same line for 1st half total and 2nd half total. They're too slow to change lines so you hunt them like a sitting duck. There's too much more to mention but I won't! Hehe..

They recognize arbers IF YOU ACT LIKE AN ARBER. They're fukked up if you camouflage yourself. When I was a beginner, I had no idea about softwares books are using, but by time you start to analyze/recognize which software book is using, how they limit players, how you can avoid etc.

My favourite method is, act like a square in first month. Make stupid bets, of course cover them at another book for a small loss. If you lose and deposit to book over and over again, your limits will be skyrocketed. You can even bet 4k on a volleyball game while you can bet only 200 on a fresh, new accounts. Some books require a special time amount to increase your limits. So you can imagine the solution, lol.

The biggest problem in arbitrage is..It's a big PAIN to deal with sh*tty books. Bad customer service, slow to pay etc. Some of them can even close/suspend your account and steal your money. It's part of the business I'm afraid, sometimes there's nothing you can do about it.

Some people think arbitrage/surebet is freemoney and very easy..but it isn't. There's no free money. It's hard. Really hard. There's a risk involved. There isn't anything such as surebet/freebet. The risk always exists.

[Sawyer]

Sawyer, Were all of your non-Pinnacle wagers at the max allowed? If not, then your strategy is not optimal. You would actually have more profit by hedging at least some if not all of your bankroll if limits allowed (assuming you would get paid and not cancelled).

Your example is saying that you would wager the same amount on a wager that could lose as you would on a sure thing. I would like to think that everyone would agree that this does not make any sense.

I don't have any problem if you only want to wager on one side, but your presentation is misleading and your premise is incorrect.

Joe.

Yeah, Max Limit allowed of course.

My presentation is not misleading, it's fukkin serious and correct. If you knew the amount I deposited to pinnacle, your azz will skyrocket to moon, lol.