Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[stevenash]

Nice thread

Agreed

[Tomatero]

Basically you have to look for arbitrage bets against Pinnacle and only bet on the other book.

[Tomatero]

Nice thread

[barnstorm]

I really think analytics and A.I. and betting syndicates and sharper linesmakers at the Books and even some squares getting a little more educated and informed has resulted in sharper lines the last year or two. That makes it harder for sharps and value bettors to find an edge.

I would love to find a database search that shows whether final scores are now closer to the closing line than they used to be 2-3 or more years ago. I would wager they are closer now.

We may need an A.I. Betting Agent to increase our R.O.I.! Check out this new Agent called BillyBets! The guys behind it are expereinced bettors and they have programmed him to learn a lot. Check out their site, their Discord, and their X, and search for BillyBets on YouTube or X. I probably can't post links so I won't.

[Sawyer]

I also moved on to Crypto. I only had a very short two-year career with Arbing, but it got me into crypto early, so that was good. I'm positioning myself with AI cryptos for now. A lot easier money than sports betting, although they just took a big dump! I bought the dip.

Do you think the sports lines are a lot sharper now, with all the analytics and syndicates keeping the books in line? It maybe even gives the squares a better shot since the sharps, analytics and syndicates keep the lines on favorites in check? Favs had a pretty good year in the NFL this year.

Definetely sharper, much more harder.

About Bitcoin and Crypto, I prefer to stick with Bitcoin only.

[biggie12]

Sawyer I've been trying to tell people this for the last couple years. Didn't realize you were a decade ahead of me.

The only difference between now and then is moving money in crypto books is alot easier these days and fees are next to nothing. Very had finding consistent Arb's tho since most of the crypto sportsbooks use the same two line providers

[biggie12]

Wow!


I can't believe it's been 13 years since I started this thread!


FYI, I retired last year. I'm done with arbitrage/value betting completely and moved on to other things.


From my observations:


Value betting hasn't been very profitable in recent years. The Pinnacle lean is almost gone, and there's too much market manipulation. When compared to value betting, arbitrage was clearly the better option. However, in the early years, value betting was the clear winner.

Now, because of AI sh*t, arbitrage betting has become a thing of the past. Maybe if you're living in a third-world country with soft bookmakers, you still have a shot. But most bookmakers are not as naive as they were 10 years ago.

Feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about arbitrage (and bitcoin)

Sawyer I've been trying to tell people this for the last couple years. Didn't realize you were a decade ahead of me.

[barnstorm]

Wow!

I can't believe it's been 13 years since I started this thread!

FYI, I retired last year. I'm done with arbitrage/value betting completely and moved on to other things.

From my observations:

Value betting hasn't been very profitable in recent years. The Pinnacle lean is almost gone, and there's too much market manipulation. When compared to value betting, arbitrage was clearly the better option. However, in the early years, value betting was the clear winner.

Now, because of AI sh*t, arbitrage betting has become a thing of the past. Maybe if you're living in a third-world country with soft bookmakers, you still have a shot. But most bookmakers are not as naive as they were 10 years ago.

Feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about arbitrage (and bitcoin)

I also moved on to Crypto. I only had a very short two-year career with Arbing, but it got me into crypto early, so that was good. I'm positioning myself with AI cryptos for now. A lot easier money than sports betting, although they just took a big dump! I bought the dip.

Do you think the sports lines are a lot sharper now, with all the analytics and syndicates keeping the books in line? It maybe even gives the squares a better shot since the sharps, analytics and syndicates keep the lines on favorites in check? Favs had a pretty good year in the NFL this year.

[Sawyer]

Wow!


I can't believe it's been 13 years since I started this thread!


FYI, I retired last year. I'm done with arbitrage/value betting completely and moved on to other things.


From my observations:


Value betting hasn't been very profitable in recent years. The Pinnacle lean is almost gone, and there's too much market manipulation. When compared to value betting, arbitrage was clearly the better option. However, in the early years, value betting was the clear winner.

Now, because of AI sh*t, arbitrage betting has become a thing of the past. Maybe if you're living in a third-world country with soft bookmakers, you still have a shot. But most bookmakers are not as naive as they were 10 years ago.

Feel free to ask if you ever have any questions about arbitrage (and bitcoin)

[gauchojake]

One of my favorite threads. Was thinking about this today so thought I would bump for anyone still reading the think tank

[barnstorm]

I use:
Fairlay (for Pinnacle lines)
5Dimes*********
BetOnline
Intertops********
Bookmaker/Diamond*****
WagerWeb***********
Bovada***********
Jazz? Same as SBGGlobal*****
BetEast/BetBaller - Bitcoin Books, same as VitaBet.

Will fund GTBets and YouWager soon.******** AND ******
ALL THE ****** will limit/ban/drastically reduce if arbing. Dont bother.

Yes, I eventually got banned by CaribSports, WagerWeb, and GTBets, And warned by 5Dimes and Bovada. I still have BetOnline, Fairlay and MyBookie. And I still have accounts but am not active with Intertops, YouWager, Bookmaker, etc., and Bitcoin Books NitrogenSports, Bitcoin Rush, BetBTC and BetcoinSports. I also lost a lot to a Bitcoin Book called PowerBet.io that took the money and ran.

[DISTROYA]

I use:
Fairlay (for Pinnacle lines)
5Dimes*********
BetOnline
Intertops********
Bookmaker/Diamond*****
WagerWeb***********
Bovada***********
Jazz? Same as SBGGlobal*****
BetEast/BetBaller - Bitcoin Books, same as VitaBet.

Will fund GTBets and YouWager soon.******** AND ******
ALL THE ****** will limit/ban/drastically reduce if arbing. Dont bother.

[ace7550]

Right.

Yeah, I should have filed a complaint with SBR, but it's been over a year now.

Well it's good to know. I've bet lines like that at Bovada and they never canceled them but I will be wary for it. Thanks for sharing.

[barnstorm]

So the line moved repeatedly, you bet it, and then after the game they cancelled it? -200 when other books have -250 is not a "bad" line. Anyone who is price shopping for that game is going to bet that. Have you considered filing an SBR complaint?

Right.

Yeah, I should have filed a complaint with SBR, but it's been over a year now.

[ace7550]

It was Bovada, not some shady Russian Book. I tried to reason with them, and point out that they changed this -200 line up and down many times before the game, so that proves that they reviewed the line and didn't think it was a mistake or a bad line at that time but did so after the game ended and it won. Other Books had it at -250. Bovada claimed their line should have been between -275 and -300.

I think some Books might try to set some trap games like this to see who their obvious Arbers and Value Bettors are.

So the line moved repeatedly, you bet it, and then after the game they cancelled it? -200 when other books have -250 is not a "bad" line. Anyone who is price shopping for that game is going to bet that. Have you considered filing an SBR complaint?

[barnstorm]

It happens sometimes but very rarely, if you pick your spots right. I suggest you to stay away from these kind of bookmakers. Stay away from unreliable bookmakers and you won't have this problem.

It was Bovada, not some shady Russian Book. I tried to reason with them, and point out that they changed this -200 line up and down many times before the game, so that proves that they reviewed the line and didn't think it was a mistake or a bad line at that time but did so after the game ended and it won. Other Books had it at -250. Bovada claimed their line should have been between -275 and -300.

I think some Books might try to set some trap games like this to see who their obvious Arbers and Value Bettors are.

[ace7550]

Have you had any bets voided? I've had some voided, even after the event. And it wasn't an obvious mistake line, just a bad one that they even changed but never quite got right. It was the soft side of an Arb, so it really hurt and wiped out months' worth of arb profit. No more arbing for me if they are going to start doing that AFTER a game wins. Maybe it's their new way to discourage arbing. It could also have been a Value Bet that they voided for many, but at least I would not have lost the other side.

GL!

Hi Barnstorm,
I've never had a book void a bet after an event unless it was a very obvious bad line. Could you give us some details on what kind of bet it was and which book it was at?

[Sawyer]

Have you had any bets voided? I've had some voided, even after the event. And it wasn't an obvious mistake line, just a bad one that they even changed but never quite got right. It was the soft side of an Arb, so it really hurt and wiped out months' worth of arb profit. No more arbing for me if they are going to start doing that AFTER a game wins. Maybe it's their new way to discourage arbing. It could also have been a Value Bet that they voided for many, but at least I would not have lost the other side.

GL!

It happens sometimes but very rarely, if you pick your spots right. I suggest you to stay away from these kind of bookmakers. Stay away from unreliable bookmakers and you won't have this problem.

[barnstorm]

Switched to value betting mostly..

Have you had any bets voided? I've had some voided, even after the event. And it wasn't an obvious mistake line, just a bad one that they even changed but never quite got right. It was the soft side of an Arb, so it really hurt and wiped out months' worth of arb profit. No more arbing for me if they are going to start doing that AFTER a game wins. Maybe it's their new way to discourage arbing. It could also have been a Value Bet that they voided for many, but at least I would not have lost the other side.

GL!

[Sawyer]

What sort of strategy are you employing these days?

Switched to value betting mostly..

[barnstorm]

What sort of strategy are you employing these days?

[Sawyer]

Nostalgia time..

Wow, 2012. 8 years ago! Oh my god, Time passes so fast..

[barnstorm]

No DSI?

Yep. DSI = Diamond. Same as Bookmaker.

[stevenash]

You can really just use SBR's odds page to catch these? I thought a service was really needed to do it.

Could you list your Books that accept U.S. players? Any Euro books or Asian books that accept U.S. players?

I use:
Fairlay (for Pinnacle lines)
5Dimes
BetOnline
Intertops
Bookmaker/Diamond
WagerWeb
Bovada
Jazz? Same as SBGGlobal
BetEast/BetBaller - Bitcoin Books, same as VitaBet.

Will fund GTBets and YouWager soon.

Got kicked out of Carib and they aren't taking new accounts.

Thanks!

No DSI?

[RangeFinder]

I had to read your post a few times. I was confused

[barnstorm]

If I could quote the Warden in Cool Hand Luke, "I think what we had here was just a failure to communicate."

It's an old thread, but new to some of us.

Sawyer and Hutennis couldn't get through to each other. I understand both their points. Perhaps, if they were in the same room, they could have been more clear to each other and understood each other. Something got lost in the translation that often happens in these forums.

It seems the main contention is whether or not one can bet enough cash on the Value bet to make more than you could by betting the larger amount that is possible when it is an arb and a guaranteed return of your principal? Could you survive a bad-luck streak in the Value bets if you were betting a much larger amount than Kelly would allow?

Is that what you all got out of this?

I never understood just how much Sawyer was wagering or whether he understood that part of it. Maybe he said he did have the bankroll and the stones to weather any bad streak in his Value betting. Was that his response to Hutennis' point?

We also didn't hear what the criteria was for choosing when to lay off the Pinnacle bet. I mean, I just had to cover the Pinnacle bet on Kansas -809 the other day as they were at home and a big fav over Kansas State +950 at 5Dimes. So it is a gut play or would you lay off covering the big favs on Pinnacle if the dog was a great value?

There was another good post about how if this is such a slam dunk, why wouldn't everyone and the syndicates be doing it?

Okay, hope I didn't open up any old wounds and hope I helped to summarize the sometimes confusing debate.

[RangeFinder]

Okay, so this thread has been around for a few years. My question for Sawyer. Are you still using your same method and books for arbs?

[barnstorm]

I'm not. I just haven't found one any better than SBR. And it's very convenient that SBR lets you choose the order in which you see the books' lines. SBR is not always correct though. They are actually off a little quite often. And sometimes they are a minute or two late on their updates. I'm currently looking into having a programmer build me a program that updates the lines quicker and more accurately for me. Arbitrage is a hell of a lot easier when you can look at a number of books' lines all in accurate real time.
Do you use any other sites for line updates?

You can really just use SBR's odds page to catch these? I thought a service was really needed to do it.

Could you list your Books that accept U.S. players? Any Euro books or Asian books that accept U.S. players?

I use:
Fairlay (for Pinnacle lines)
5Dimes
BetOnline
Intertops
Bookmaker/Diamond
WagerWeb
Bovada
Jazz? Same as SBGGlobal
BetEast/BetBaller - Bitcoin Books, same as VitaBet.

Will fund GTBets and YouWager soon.

Got kicked out of Carib and they aren't taking new accounts.

Thanks!

[Alfa1234]

"Pretty much even" when I'm talking about a 3% edge...I don't follow every odd but I do know it holds up for the odds I've taken above the closing line.

[biggie12]

Yes, it does.

Do u have stats to back that up? Id be very curious to know the % im looking at nba lines from open to close daily id say its pretty much even bwtween 45-53%

[biggie12]

Yeah, it was easy money back then. Could combine with large new account or reload bonuses all over the place, then do the rollovers with arbs on top of it. At one point I had accounts with near 200 books :-)

Yeah i had close to around 70 books now ur lucky to find a 3% arb going off pinny but the site with the arb usually $500 limit. Okay for those looking for free lunches

[HeeeHAWWWW]

arbing was soo good 8-9 years ago now its not even worth it unless u can get A TON of money down, which is not that easy anymore.

Yeah, it was easy money back then. Could combine with large new account or reload bonuses all over the place, then do the rollovers with arbs on top of it. At one point I had accounts with near 200 books :-)

[Alfa1234]

and this theory does not hold true with NBA lines at pinny. not a big enough sample but at least not this year and the previous couple.

Yes, it does.

[Alfa1234]

I think you can use this time as a student to learn these skills and find something that works for you...see it as a way to earn a skill that can make you much more once your roll increases. There's no way you can safely do it with a small roll.

[nicholasg97]

1% as the basis would be ok but it depends on your bankroll off course...with a roll of 1k you are grinding out a bunch of bets for very low expected profit.

3% expected average profit for a 1k roll would make you 0.3€/$ per bet. Not great.

Haha I understand. So what do I do if I have a bankroll right around 1k? I'm sure there is no one simple answer just wondering your thoughts. I'm just a college student tailing a couple people right now.