Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[biggie12]

arbing was soo good 8-9 years ago now its not even worth it unless u can get A TON of money down, which is not that easy anymore.

and this theory does not hold true with NBA lines at pinny. not a big enough sample but at least not this year and the previous couple.

[Alfa1234]

Best adjust your stake using Kelly, with a "to win" amount (don't bet 1% of your bank on an odd with a 20% edge if that odd is 8.0/+700-> huge variance that way) and the edge % taken into account. 1% as the basis would be ok but it depends on your bankroll off course...with a roll of 1k you are grinding out a bunch of bets for very low expected profit.

3% expected average profit for a 1k roll would make you 0.3€/$ per bet. Not great.

[nicholasg97]

So I was reading this thread and how betting on the "soft books" (the ones that aren't pinnacle) is +EV in the long run. You mention in a post,

"That's the easy part though...betting 50$ with a 5k bank and losing 900$ after 75bets will start making you doubt this edge...and that's how people lose money and go bankrupt."

So I was accustomed to the notion that a "good" size for a unit would be 1% of my bankroll. Is what you're suggesting here that it should be even less?

Would've PMed this, but I don't have 40 posts.

Thanks,
Nick

[MikeyPicks1]

OMFG just stumbled on this thread.

OP really doesn't understand math.

1. It's simple really, the arbitrage (aka betting both Pinny and the other books), GUARANTEES THAT YOU WIN NO MATTER WHAT. I don't think anyone can dispute this

2. You are ASSUMING that Pinny's lines will ALWAYS lose in the aggrgegate in any meaningful period of time. What if Pinny bets win over a month, two months, six months, a year period WHILE THE OTHER BOOKS BETS LOSE IN THE AGGREGATE. You CANNOT be certain that this will NOT happen.

I don't think he's saying it's certain to happen. Rather, I think that from experience it tends to be the case more times than not. I played the game he's speaking of for a couple of years, and must admit, he's hitting it dead on. Of course, it was just 2 years of experience, not a forever.

[DISTROYA]

I read through this entire thread and now have a splitting headache.

[Harry N. Lloyd]

I read through this entire thread and now have a splitting headache.

[DISTROYA]

it doesnt take a rocket scientist to know that the sharp books balance will always in the long run decrease, and the stale/soft arbable books will go up. If you can stomach occasional losing sessions, you should just hammer away at full wager on the softer books and you would be very rich, until they kick you out of course.

[RangeFinder]

Bravo Alfa, great explanation. it takes at least 10,000 events to determine a mathematical outcome whether it is statistics or betting with an edge. it's not so much time as it is number of events. Congrats on your 3.1% ROI. That is excellent work.

[mycon]

If valuebetting theory holds true, sophisticated firms with high tech technology, large amount of previous data, and sharp minds would be cashing in. But research shows that's not the case.

Billy Walters, Matthew Benham and particularly Tony Bloom would like a word with you...

Also please point me to that research since it would make for a hilarious read.

[BetweenHerCheeks]

Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at pinnacle..

Why?

Because the side you bet on Pinnacle will usually lose and your Pinnacle bankroll will decrease slowly.

Let's say odds are like this at Pinnacle,

Jack to win -164
Mike to win +140

You find "Jack to win" bet at -120 in another bookie.

Now, you can bet both sides and make a surebet (arbitrage) and guarantee the profit with zero risk. However, this is waste of money, why?

Because, the value bet is on other bookie. The bet you placed at Pinnacle is not a value bet. Time to time, you will have winning streaks in Pinnacle but over the long haul, you will lose more often and bets you lost at Pinnacle will drain your bankroll slowly..

At the end of the month,

You will have a situation like this:

Oh, very nice I made 5k net profit this month.

Total Money Won from other books: +15k
Total Money Lost (and deposited) at Pinnacle: -10k

Let me ask you. What if you didn't placed any wager at Pinnacle in order to cover other side?

You would be +15,000 up.

BECAUSE PINNACLE LINES ARE SHARPER!

OMFG just stumbled on this thread.

OP really doesn't understand math.

1. It's simple really, the arbitrage (aka betting both Pinny and the other books), GUARANTEES THAT YOU WIN NO MATTER WHAT. I don't think anyone can dispute this

2. You are ASSUMING that Pinny's lines will ALWAYS lose in the aggrgegate in any meaningful period of time. What if Pinny bets win over a month, two months, six months, a year period WHILE THE OTHER BOOKS BETS LOSE IN THE AGGREGATE. You CANNOT be certain that this will NOT happen.

[chesterfield]

I'm betting on 2 ways
comparison pinnacle & bet365
surebets less than to 1%(0<>1)
I bet only on bet365
for the moment, 60 bets, roi 10%

[Alfa1234]

Rather than criticizing me why don't you prove me wrong and post pictures of your high flying life as you are making a killing based on value bets. Ok leave yourself aside and give me few examples of value bettors who are having time of their life by all the money they are earning using value betting (if any such thing exist)

You are also probably driving a car which need maintenance from last 6 months but you are spending all car maintenance money on value betting hoping to get rich one day. In essence all you are doing making bookmakers rich.

Come on prove me wrong and show me % increase in your bank balance doing value betting from last 1 year and prove me wrong.

Let's just say I do this full time and make a decent living. I don't feel the need to post pics of my bets and definitely am not going to give detailed stats out to the general public. My ROI is 3.1%. It's all about bankroll management, if you are going to bet 5 to 10% of your bankroll you'll definitely go bankrupt as the swings are huge. Your 'edge' is small so it's about volume and sticking to it. Also, don't expect it to work in small markets where the Pinnacle limit is 200$ like Badmington... Once you do it for a while, you'll start finding some ways and find some smaller edges that make you money.

I don't want to get into a fight with you, I just hate to see someone coming in here and make a post about his own, fairly limited experience, and tell us the entire theory doesn't work when he has, in fact, no idea if it does or not as he simply does not have enough detailed stats yet.

You WILL see after a large amount of arbitrage bets that all your money ends up in the soft books and your Pinnacle account will get drained time and again. Simply put: the smart money on Pinnacle has pushed the odd you take on Pinny up (by betting the other side), so you are on the wrong end of the smart money in Pinnacle hence you'll lose eventually. Taking the smart side won't help either as the odd has dropped to a point where there's no longer an edge. Once the market is fully formed on Pinnacle, you can assume it represents the actual probability of that event happening -> any odd higher than that will give you an edge. That's the easy part though...betting 50$ with a 5k bank and losing 900$ after 75bets will start making you doubt this edge...and that's how people lose money and go bankrupt.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

And also, where are the value bettors who are successful? I never came across any successful value bettor.

Very few who succeed will talk about the specifics, because of the fear of giving away an edge.

There are a few famous types like Alan Woods, and indeed the founders of Pinnacle. However, there a much larger number of people making an ordinary living out of it, no great riches but paying the bills. I know about a dozen or so in Britain - there are a lot here because of no taxation on gambling income, and easy access to lots of books (although that's changed a bit in the last couple of years).


Here's something to think about: Pinnacle exists because of those sharp players. It's how their prices are refined, and absolutely fundamental to their business. They, along with SBO and IBC, allow the sharps (aka value bettors) to bet as much as they like. By contrast, the very definition of a recreational book is that value players are limited/banned as soon as possible.

[mtalock]

Great. Advice but if you did not cover opposite side you would lose outright ?

[ozpak]

As a general response to your post though: most who attempt value betting fail.

I don't get this part. So most value bettors fail because of poor money management. It's same like most gamblers fail because of so many reasons. So what's the difference between value bettor and normal gambler if both are losing money in long term.

And also, where are the value bettors who are successful? I never came across any successful value bettor. All is see is some fat, ugly guys or students hoping to get rich quick sitting in front of computers all day hoping to find an edge. Would you mind to give some examples or success stories of value bettors???

[ozpak]

Come back after you've done 20k + bets and see what percentage of your money ended up in Pinnacle and what percentage ended up in softs. You'll change your mind.

After 20k+ bets may be more money end in soft books and may be I lose more on Pinnacle side. But I am 100% sure, if I do value betting, I will be bankrupt within no times based on the fluctuations and up and down in value betting.

You seem like an expert in value betting and seem like you have done 20k+ bets. So comeon and tell your audience on this forum what's percentage increase you have seen in your bank balance in last 12 months using value betting.

[ozpak]

Oh wauw, 10 whole months of experience gave you an insight in this industry? 1.2million turnover? Wauw...120k/month at 15k/arb... That sure makes you an expert.

What makes you think your stats are anywhere near relevant or represent anything near true results over a longer period with so few bets placed??

Come back after you've done 20k + bets and see what percentage of your money ended up in Pinnacle and what percentage ended up in softs. You'll change your mind.

Rather than criticizing me why don't you prove me wrong and post pictures of your high flying life as you are making a killing based on value bets. Ok leave yourself aside and give me few examples of value bettors who are having time of their life by all the money they are earning using value betting (if any such thing exist)

You are also probably driving a car which need maintenance from last 6 months but you are spending all car maintenance money on value betting hoping to get rich one day. In essence all you are doing making bookmakers rich.

Come on prove me wrong and show me % increase in your bank balance doing value betting from last 1 year and prove me wrong.

[Alfa1234]

Been there done that. I totally disagree based on my experience of betting volume of more than $1.2 million dollars in last 10 months. I was heavily arbing upto $15k per arb for 1% or 1.5% return on each arb. There were times when I consistently lose on Pinnacle but win on softbooks and my all bank role ended up in soft books. There were also times when my all bank role ended in Pinnacle and I lose all bets on softbooks. If I had followed valuebetting, I would have been bankrupt many times.

So value bet is just a myth. If it's hold true, all value bettors would be multi-millionaire by now if not multi billionaire. But all I see on different forums the people who promote value bets are staking $10-100 per bet. If somebody is staking only $10 or maximum $100 per hand, I will not bother to listen his words as he is just a newbie or small time punter who will lose everything while doing value betting. Unless you are value betting of minimum $1000 per bet, I will take what you are saying as joke.

If valuebetting theory holds true, sophisticated firms with high tech technology, large amount of previous data, and sharp minds would be cashing in. But research shows that's not the case. Some small time student living in dorm, staking $2 per hand for 100 bets and publishing his results are not worthy to believe.

OP claims to be doing this value betting from last 4 years. I challenged him to show his returns and show by how much percentage his bank balance has increased. 90% chances are his bank balance decreased many folds doing value betting in last 4 years.

Value betting is just another form of a strategy which will eventually burst. You just need 10-15 losing games in a row and voila........... your value betting strategy bursts. To give you an example, Steve is a blogger from Australia who boosted he never had losing year in 1st 5 years doing value betting. What happened in 6th year???? He lose quite a lot came back where he started. His blog URL is

http://www.daily25.com/july-august-2016-monthly-review-61530-00/

So you really want to do value betting for 1 year, 2 year or 3 years with success but then eventually you will go burst and lose everything what you made in last few years???? I leave this question for you to decide that you really want to waste your life doing value betting and then losing all fortune suddenly??

I know many people will disagree from this post but I challenged them to show me their returns and show me how they are travelling in private jets, driving Ferraris and having a harem full of different nationalities.

Oh wauw, 10 whole months of experience gave you an insight in this industry? 1.2million turnover? Wauw...120k/month at 15k/arb... That sure makes you an expert.

What makes you think your stats are anywhere near relevant or represent anything near true results over a longer period with so few bets placed??

Come back after you've done 20k + bets and see what percentage of your money ended up in Pinnacle and what percentage ended up in softs. You'll change your mind.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Been there done that. I totally disagree based on my experience of betting volume of more than $1.2 million dollars in last 10 months. I was heavily arbing upto $15k per arb for 1% or 1.5% return on each arb. There were times when I consistently lose on Pinnacle but win on softbooks and my all bank role ended up in soft books. There were also times when my all bank role ended in Pinnacle and I lose all bets on softbooks. If I had followed valuebetting, I would have been bankrupt many times.

Only if over-staking. This is where most value players go wrong, they drastically over-estimate their edge, whether out of overconfidence or poorly done/overfitted backtests. As Mr Kelly so famously proved: stake more than double the optimal, and you lose money longterm even with value bets.

I've been there too though back when I was arbing - certainly you can end up with uncomfortable amounts in soft books. Once I had over $50k in a book that got into financial trouble, not pleasant at all ......

If valuebetting theory holds true, sophisticated firms with high tech technology, large amount of previous data, and sharp minds would be cashing in.

Those do exist, largely in soccer betting. My impression is most are drawn into the finance world though (that's my background).


As a general response to your post though: most who attempt value betting fail. One of the well-known gambling books said something relevant, paraphrasing: those who have the aptitude to succeed at gambling tend not to be involved in it. That's both in terms in psychology, addiction and objectivity, and the understanding of relevant areas of statistics (and to stay competitive, current developments in machine learning).

[tsty]

steve is not a winning better thou

just because he makes money doesn't mean he is a winner

anyone can get a hot streak

he uses tips..

[ozpak]

Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at pinnacle..

Why?

Because the side you bet on Pinnacle will usually lose and your Pinnacle bankroll will decrease slowly.

Let's say odds are like this at Pinnacle,

Jack to win -164
Mike to win +140

You find "Jack to win" bet at -120 in another bookie.

Now, you can bet both sides and make a surebet (arbitrage) and guarantee the profit with zero risk. However, this is waste of money, why?

Because, the value bet is on other bookie. The bet you placed at Pinnacle is not a value bet. Time to time, you will have winning streaks in Pinnacle but over the long haul, you will lose more often and bets you lost at Pinnacle will drain your bankroll slowly..

At the end of the month,

You will have a situation like this:

Oh, very nice I made 5k net profit this month.

Total Money Won from other books: +15k
Total Money Lost (and deposited) at Pinnacle: -10k

Let me ask you. What if you didn't placed any wager at Pinnacle in order to cover other side?

You would be +15,000 up.

BECAUSE PINNACLE LINES ARE SHARPER!

Been there done that. I totally disagree based on my experience of betting volume of more than $1.2 million dollars in last 10 months. I was heavily arbing upto $15k per arb for 1% or 1.5% return on each arb. There were times when I consistently lose on Pinnacle but win on softbooks and my all bank role ended up in soft books. There were also times when my all bank role ended in Pinnacle and I lose all bets on softbooks. If I had followed valuebetting, I would have been bankrupt many times.

So value bet is just a myth. If it's hold true, all value bettors would be multi-millionaire by now if not multi billionaire. But all I see on different forums the people who promote value bets are staking $10-100 per bet. If somebody is staking only $10 or maximum $100 per hand, I will not bother to listen his words as he is just a newbie or small time punter who will lose everything while doing value betting. Unless you are value betting of minimum $1000 per bet, I will take what you are saying as joke.

If valuebetting theory holds true, sophisticated firms with high tech technology, large amount of previous data, and sharp minds would be cashing in. But research shows that's not the case. Some small time student living in dorm, staking $2 per hand for 100 bets and publishing his results are not worthy to believe.

OP claims to be doing this value betting from last 4 years. I challenged him to show his returns and show by how much percentage his bank balance has increased. 90% chances are his bank balance decreased many folds doing value betting in last 4 years.

Value betting is just another form of a strategy which will eventually burst. You just need 10-15 losing games in a row and voila........... your value betting strategy bursts. To give you an example, Steve is a blogger from Australia who boosted he never had losing year in 1st 5 years doing value betting. What happened in 6th year???? He lose quite a lot came back where he started. His blog URL is

http://www.daily25.com/july-august-2016-monthly-review-61530-00/

So you really want to do value betting for 1 year, 2 year or 3 years with success but then eventually you will go burst and lose everything what you made in last few years???? I leave this question for you to decide that you really want to waste your life doing value betting and then losing all fortune suddenly??

I know many people will disagree from this post but I challenged them to show me their returns and show me how they are travelling in private jets, driving Ferraris and having a harem full of different nationalities.

[trump4prez]

The argument is sound and 100% correct. Pinnacle and betfair are so called sharps. They set the market and in a big enough market have the most efficient price (or odd). That means, if Pinnacle gives an odd of "2" for something there is a 50% chance of that event happening minus their juice (for major markets lets say the juice is 2%). That would mean the chance of that odd winning is about 49%.

This is a constant for every odd on their lines, the same goes for a fully formed market on Betfair.

Now if you were to bet, consistently, on an odd that is higher than the Pinnacle or Betfair odd every time (this is what arbitrage players do, they bet on an odd at a softbook and counter it with Pinnacle or Betfair) you would effectively be betting on a odd that is a "better" odd than the efficient market price...giving you an edge over the long term. If you were to find, at a book an odd of 2.2 and the Pinnacle odd for that same market was 2 and you would bet that consistantly every time you'd be getting a payout of 60% for something that has only a 49% chance of happening. That gives you an edge. Do it hundreds of times and you will win money.

It's like a coin toss. If someone would give you a payout of 55% for "heads" and you would bet that every time...in the end you would always win as the actual chance of it happening is only 50%. This is a fact. As long as the payout you can get is higher than the actual chance % of the event happening, you'll win long term.

It's a fact, there is data about this and people have been doing it for a long time. Just don't do it in small or unformed markets as the Pinny or Betfair price is not efficient there and won't reflect the real odds of something happening.

But what you forget to mention is that there are only very few books that will keep you long term if you are making profit. Pinnacle, bookmaker, sbobet when it comes to book and exchanges like betfair. All other books like bet365 and all the other square books where you can find soft lines will kick you out when you win consistently--there limits aren't great either to make significant scalp. Eventually you will be left with bookmaker, pinnacle, sbo and betfair and with today's super fast line updates its not easy to scalp profit. Even if you manage to scalp profit, all you need to do is make one mistake or lose out on a possible wager to give back all the little scalp you accumulated in the past 15 or 20 events.

[KVB]

And I might add, when I say spooky, we can throw in conspiracy with that. On a very deep level are they shifting markets to get arbers onto a specific side? Let's just think of this, are "they" moving on air in order to force the arbs?

There are many groups that the market tries to "force to play" using line movement. This is the name of the game. The markets lead bettors into plays all the time.

This is just another area in sports betting where patience as a virtue can be applied for profit.

Understanding why the market opens where it does, and why it moves to where it moves will go a long way toward earning long term profits.

[MikeyPicks1]

Well, I will give him credit since he's one of the few posts that can be found on the subject. And since this thing has been around so long one might figure more people would have been discussing it. Thumbs up to Sawyer.

[DeathAdder]

4 years passed since I opened the thread.
Do you know..everyday I see how true it is..

Well it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out Pinnacle has the sharpest lines. So obviously you'll make money betting off lines at slow moving bookmakers until they ban your ass. Not gonna give you credit for something that's been widely known since the begging of online sportsbetting

[Sawyer]

4 years passed since I opened the thread.
Do you know..everyday I see how true it is..

[MikeyPicks1]

And I might add, when I say spooky, we can throw in conspiracy with that. On a very deep level are they shifting markets to get arbers onto a specific side? Let's just think of this, are "they" moving on air in order to force the arbs?

[MikeyPicks1]

The title of this thread is so true. I can't tell you how many times I lose, even when Pinny eventually moves in the direction I'm betting. It's borderline spooky.

[stevex]

I'm not. I just haven't found one any better than SBR. And it's very convenient that SBR lets you choose the order in which you see the books' lines. SBR is not always correct though. They are actually off a little quite often. And sometimes they are a minute or two late on their updates. I'm currently looking into having a programmer build me a program that updates the lines quicker and more accurately for me. Arbitrage is a hell of a lot easier when you can look at a number of books' lines all in accurate real time.
Do you use any other sites for line updates?

I'm going to assume that baseball is really the only sport you can do this in. At least with enough frequency to make it worth your while.

[Alfa1234]

Also: this is the reason soft books ban or limit arbitrage players. They know the player has an edge on them and will win long term because he is getting a better price than the actual market price every time, and he will beat them long term.

[Alfa1234]

The argument is sound and 100% correct. Pinnacle and betfair are so called sharps. They set the market and in a big enough market have the most efficient price (or odd). That means, if Pinnacle gives an odd of "2" for something there is a 50% chance of that event happening minus their juice (for major markets lets say the juice is 2%). That would mean the chance of that odd winning is about 49%.

This is a constant for every odd on their lines, the same goes for a fully formed market on Betfair.

Now if you were to bet, consistently, on an odd that is higher than the Pinnacle or Betfair odd every time (this is what arbitrage players do, they bet on an odd at a softbook and counter it with Pinnacle or Betfair) you would effectively be betting on a odd that is a "better" odd than the efficient market price...giving you an edge over the long term. If you were to find, at a book an odd of 2.2 and the Pinnacle odd for that same market was 2 and you would bet that consistantly every time you'd be getting a payout of 60% for something that has only a 49% chance of happening. That gives you an edge. Do it hundreds of times and you will win money.

It's like a coin toss. If someone would give you a payout of 55% for "heads" and you would bet that every time...in the end you would always win as the actual chance of it happening is only 50%. This is a fact. As long as the payout you can get is higher than the actual chance % of the event happening, you'll win long term.

It's a fact, there is data about this and people have been doing it for a long time. Just don't do it in small or unformed markets as the Pinny or Betfair price is not efficient there and won't reflect the real odds of something happening.

[abetandy]

ace7550 I wanted to send a screen shot but have no way to do so or PM you until I get 40 posts. Stay tuned - 38 more posts to go lol.

[abetandy]

The argument is about theory vs. Reality. Reality wins.

[getlucky2win]

Lol

[ace7550]

I have an account with Bovada back from my Bodog poker days. But I don't have one with GTbets. So I can use you as a referral when the time comes. Are you using any other service/site for line updates?

I'm not. I just haven't found one any better than SBR. And it's very convenient that SBR lets you choose the order in which you see the books' lines. SBR is not always correct though. They are actually off a little quite often. And sometimes they are a minute or two late on their updates. I'm currently looking into having a programmer build me a program that updates the lines quicker and more accurately for me. Arbitrage is a hell of a lot easier when you can look at a number of books' lines all in accurate real time.
Do you use any other sites for line updates?