Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[Krashman]

...

[Miz]

Joe, thanks for your reply. I can appreciate your thoughts. It is less about difficulty understanding the math and the growth between the two approaches. My comment was about feasibility of the execution for players in the US.

1. There is a general lack of outs for arbers in the US. Matchbook is gone, no access to pinnacle, and since that happened arb opportunities have decreased. I used to do it a lot with MLB when matchbook was around. Most of my bankroll out on a single arb play with a relatively small EV but decent growth possibility.

2. Rebalancing of funds... total pain in the US, as of late.

3. Number of opportunities. With the right outs, there may be a large number of opportunities for arbs. Maybe even comparable to the number of single side +EV opportunities. But not without access to a decent exchange and pinnacle.

4. My comment about bankroll size implies that one would not put their entire roll on a single arb, in an attempt to avoid the pain of rebalancing.

5. I find arbing less interesting, which would disappoint a purist looking only for max growth. Assuming I could find decent arb opportunities; with my roll size, arbing would tie up my whole roll and prevent me from betting my standard plays.

While your example is good at illustrating the growth of each approach for 1000 opportunites, my argument is that I believe you are more likely to find 1000 single side opportunities in far less time than you'll be able to find 1000 sequential arb opportunities at comparable growths... talking from the perspective of a US player.

As always, please enlighten me if you disagree or have evidence to the contrary. Have a nice weekend.

[u21c3f6]

My roll isn't big enough yet to arb and make it worth my time.

Incorrect. I think people think this because they focus on the amount of a wager instead of the EV of a wager. I have asked players that claim to have a 5% edge and make $100 wagers (assume +100) if they would consider wagering on an arb instead for a guaranteed $6. Most laugh and say that they couldn't be bothered wagering if they were only going to win $6. What they are not recognizing of course is that their wager only has an EV of $5 but they only see the chance to win $100.

In your case, if you had a $2,000 bankroll, per your post above, you would wager $70 on something that you believed gave you a 5% edge. That means that your EV for that wager is $3.50. It does not take a large odds gap to far surpass that amount with an arb.

In addition, based on one of your previous posts, I don't think you appreciate the bankroll growth possibilites of an arb. If you did a full Kelly (5.5% of bankroll) simulation of 1000 wagers @ -110 with a 5% edge, your starting bankroll would increase on average from $2,000 to $7,933.38. Spectacular!

However, let's assume that you can create arbs that would increase your bankroll by .275% (a little more than 1/4 of 1%). This is very small potatoes but I chose that number because .275% of $2,000 is $5.50, the EV of your initial single wager. If you increased your bankroll by that tiny % (think compound interest), after 1000 arbs your bankroll would increase from $2,000 to $31,167.41. I am not sure what adjective to use here.

There is so much more to write on this subject, much of which is totally misunderstood by many but I will stop here for now.

Joe.

[hutennis]

First off, I'm sorry I was a little rude to you the other day.

No worries.

You seem like a smart guy; but you also seem to insult people the moment they disagree with you.

I hope you can go over my discussions here and you will see, that hardly ever, unless extremely provoked, do I use personal insults.
I will insult my opponent's argument any day and twice on Sundays, there is nothing wrong with that, but I will stay away from insulting a person making an argument for as long as I possibly can. There is a huge difference there.

In real life it isn't all just math.

Here I agree completely.

Math is actually a very small part of it.
For at least 95%, including myself, all the math they would ever be able to use efficiently in SB is in a few Granchrow posts and his tools.
We neither can comprehend nor do we need anything more complicated to be able to survive.

Yes, just to survive. Nothing there actually tells you how to make money, but it sure as shit teaches you how not to lose.
How not to become a shark bate. How not to be eaten by others.
That is more than enough to make his lessons to be very hard to overestimate and very appreciated.
And, as I said, it is also more than enough math for most of us.

The rest is pure psychology.
Road from survivor to a winner is basically one big psychological battle with yourself.

It is not a question whether our brain is trying to fak us up violently every step of the way.
That's given.
The most important question is : "How?", or rather "How now?" b/c now it maybe something completely different
from 5 min ago. And it never stops.
Us vs Us - that's were the real battle is. Very few are able to win (and, as a result, make money) in this battle, b/c when it come to us protecting ourselves from us cannibalizing on ourselves we are natural born losers. Evolutionary.

[Miz]

Now much, as a %% of your BR, would you put at local on every single bet with 5% edge?

First off, I'm sorry I was a little rude to you the other day. You seem like a smart guy; but you also seem to insult people the moment they disagree with you. In real life it isn't all just math. There are uncertainties that each person handles differently in real betting. Staking is a good example. You can calculate the perfect kelly stake and optimize everything, but edge calculations are never exact (unless it is a brainless arb where no side is assumed to be the +EV side).

I don't arb. So I would elect to only bet the off market numbers, and will try to answer the question only from a non-arb perspective. I use models and predict which side is +EV. The answer wrt BR % depends on 2 things... how many simultaneous events there are, and what type of fudge factor conservatism you use. Kelly coefficients <1 etc.

So the perfect kelly stake is 5.5% for the 5% edge, and only 1 event. The online calculator can tell you that just as well as a spreadsheet can. I always try to have some conservatism in there as a safety net, so probably something like 3.5% is what I am more comfortable with

I always assume my actual winning percentage is lower than my backtesting and previous seasons actual real-life betting suggest. So if history (testing & real betting) shows 56% success rate against opening lines, I assume 55%. that way I lower the risk of an unexpected bad year hurting me. I do so at the expense of leaving some money on the table.

If you were gong to arb, then you can do all kinds of things like a weighted arb, where if Team A covers you break even, or if team B wins then you win more money that you would if you just split the arb down the middle. My roll isn't big enough yet to arb and make it worth my time. When that day comes, I'll spend more time thinking about the best way to approach it.

Good luck on your plays.

[u21c3f6]

No, you are not understanding. Let's use an example and assume that we do not have any limit issues.

Soft book has +120 and hard book has +100 for the other side. Let's further assume that the actual probability is 50/50 which means you have a 10% edge. Full Kelly would be 8.33% of your bankroll. To wager more than 8.33% of your bankroll on just one side would actually be detrimental and increase your chance of ruin.

Let's further assume a $2,000 bankroll.

In your (or Sawyer's) scenario you would wager $166 on the soft side only with an EV of $16.60 (10% edge). This is not optimal.

Now assume that we have $1,000 in the soft book and $1,000 in the hard book. Now let's look at two different scenarios, one where we don't know which side is +EV and one where we do.

Don't know which side is +EV:

Wager $1000 @ +100 and $910 @ +120 for a guaranteed profit of $90 (over 5 times more than the EV of wagering the soft side only).

We know that the +120 side is a 10% edge:

Wager $1000 on the soft side @ +120 and $917 on the hard side @ +100 for an EV of $100 (win $283 or lose $83). This scenario just adds $834 to the soft side and $917 to the hard side increasing your original $166 wager's EV by a guaranteed $83 allowing you to lose only $83 if you lose but win $283 if you win.

My personal preference is not concern myself with which side is +EV. In the above scenarios that would mean that I give up the 10% edge if I knew the soft side ($90 profit instead of $100 profit).

Of course you can make up other scenarios using less than your total bankroll but still have a greater EV than just wagering the soft side only.

I hope that clarifies.

Joe.

[pellumb341]

then you would actually make more money by wagering the balance to the max on the soft side and arbing that balance on the other side.

This is what all arbers do . But if you ask them , i guarantee that all of them will respond : Our long term balance at sharp book (pinnacle or asians) is negative .

So it turns out that we would make more money if we only wagered only the side at soft book .

[pellumb341]

How do they know your wager is arb?
At what place you had +EV wager?
Would that place take 500 from you?
What %% of your BR would that be?

Bookies are not stupid.They have software which shows them the arbs ; they recognize arbers because arbers are always getting soft lines.They allow you 1 month,2 months...then sooner or later they kick your ass.If i worked for a bookie , i would figure it out immediately if you are a arber or not.

+ev wager , both scenarios are possible. +ev at A book and -ev at B book ; +ev at B book and -ev at A book

Yes ,it would be possible to wager 500 ,but it attracts too much attention and you would get limited sooner than normally.

I started with 2,500 EUR and within 8 months my BR went to 13,000 EUR . So , 10.500 EUR profit in 8 months I used to wager 100 EUR at soft book which was 4% of my initial BR.After i made some profits , i increased it to 200 EUR , but i got limited to 20 EUR within 10 days what i said ,big stakes attracts attention

PS : I know that in USA 10k are not too much ,but in my country the average monthly salary is 300 EUR. So ,within 8 months i won the salary of 3.5 years

[hutennis]

Yeah, this was my point from the start.
It was backed up with real calculations.
And still people are either not bright enough to understand
or just too stubborn to admit.

Either way, books have it too easy.

[u21c3f6]

Getting limited might be a reason for not using the optimum wagering strategy but in Sawyer's example we are not assuming limit problems. Without a limit problem, if you do not wager the max allowed on the soft side, then you would actually make more money by wagering the balance to the max on the soft side and arbing that balance on the other side.

Joe.

[hutennis]

How do they know your wager is arb?
At what place you had +EV wager?
Would that place take 500 from you?
What %% of your BR would that be?

[pellumb341]

Pellumb341, Were all of your wagers at book B the maximum you could wager?

Joe.

I have not arbed with Pinnacle and my Local.I have arbed with one well known European books and one well known asian book.
I used to wager always 100 EUR at european ; at asian i had to calculate it , it varied from 50 to 160 EUR.

No ,i did not use to wager the maximum cuz they limit you if you bet large amounts on arbs.Anyways , actually i am limited ,that's why i am using "used to arb".

[u21c3f6]

Pellumb341, Were all of your wagers at book B the maximum you could wager?

Joe.

[hutennis]

This

Now much, as a %% of your BR, would you put at local on every single bet with 5% edge?

[Miz]

I am writing this on my own experience. I have used only two bookies for arbing , book A and B.

Book A is sharper and my balance there was always negative ( lets say -2k)
Book B is softer and my balance there was positive ( lets say 10k )

If i had bet only the side at B book which is the soft one , my profit would be +10k . Actually it's 8k ,because i have lost 2k at Book A which is the sharpest one.

This is the point that Sawyer is claiming.
Now back to his example.If you arb between Pinnacle and a local book ,you have two choices :

A) to bet both sides . Long term balances will be ---> Pinnacle negative ( -2k) , Local pozitive (+10k) , so the profit is +8k
B) to bet only at local ,cuz you know that you will lose at Pinnacle in long term. Profit 10K

This

[hutennis]

I am writing this on my own experience. I have used only two bookies for arbing , book A and B.

Book A is sharper and my balance there was always negative ( lets say -2k)
Book B is softer and my balance there was positive ( lets say 10k )

If i had bet only the side at B book which is the soft one , my profit would be +10k . Actually it's 8k ,because i have lost 2k at Book A which is the sharpest one.

This is the point that Sawyer is claiming.
Now back to his example.If you arb between Pinnacle and a local book ,you have two choices :

A) to bet both sides . Long term balances will be ---> Pinnacle negative ( -2k) , Local pozitive (+10k) , so the profit is +8k
B) to bet only at local ,cuz you know that you will lose at Pinnacle in long term. Profit 10K

Now much, as a %% of your BR, would you put at local on every single bet with 5% edge?

[pellumb341]

I am writing this on my own experience. I have used only two bookies for arbing , book A and B.

Book A is sharper and my balance there was always negative ( lets say -2k)
Book B is softer and my balance there was positive ( lets say 10k )

If i had bet only the side at B book which is the soft one , my profit would be +10k . Actually it's 8k ,because i have lost 2k at Book A which is the sharpest one.

This is the point that Sawyer is claiming.
Now back to his example.If you arb between Pinnacle and a local book ,you have two choices :

A) to bet both sides . Long term balances will be ---> Pinnacle negative ( -2k) , Local pozitive (+10k) , so the profit is +8k
B) to bet only at local ,cuz you know that you will lose at Pinnacle in long term. Profit 10K

[pellumb341]

A) One bank account that goes from $100 to $150 in one month or

B) Two bank accounts, one which goes from $100 to $200 and the other goes from $100 to $75 in one month?

Joe.

Edit: Please note that the starting balances are not to be considered, the point is that A produces a $50 profit whereas B produces a $75 profit even though the second account goes negative. Sawyer's example is not valid because anyone that knows how to hedge and/or arb would not do it the way he is describing.

Joe.

Mate , you are wrong. A produces more than B and that is all Sawyer wants to mean in this thread.I guarantee this based on my own experience.

B) Two bank accounts, one which goes from $100 to $200 and the other goes from $100 to $75 in one month?

BOLD part is your mistake , and i will correct it.
It goes from $100 to 25$ ,so B will produce $25 profit ,which is lower than A = $50

[u21c3f6]

I am having difficulty trying to write a response that doesn't appear insulting. The reading comprehension of some posters is incredibly weak. In addition, trying to explain this is like trying to teach someone algebra and then realize that they don't really understand multiplicaton and division and you are not even sure if they understand addition and subtraction.

Which do you prefer:

A) One bank account that goes from $100 to $150 in one month or

B) Two bank accounts, one which goes from $100 to $200 and the other goes from $100 to $75 in one month?

Joe.

Edit: Please note that the starting balances are not to be considered, the point is that A produces a $50 profit whereas B produces a $75 profit even though the second account goes negative. Sawyer's example is not valid because anyone that knows how to hedge and/or arb would not do it the way he is describing.

Joe.

[pellumb341]

Like you have said ,long term balance at Pinnacle is and will be forever negative.

So, if you don't mind , i would give you an advice : Wager at Pinnacle the amount that break you even (hope i have said it correctly)

EXAMPLE

Over 2.5 @ 2.10 ( local )
Under 2.5 @ 2.00 (pinnacle)

Put 1 unit at your local ---> 1 * 2.10 = 2.1 units
Put 1 unit at pinnacle ----> 1 * 2.00 = 2 units

Outcome: over 2.5 ---> +0.1 profit
under 2.5 ----> break even

So this strategy reduces your losses at Pinnacle.

[pellumb341]

Sawyer , GL in your arber life and enjoy it as long as it is possible I am an (ex?!) arber , i understand everything you say and you are 100% correct.I don't know why people posting in this thread find it difficult to understand / believe it.Maybe the reason is that they have never arbed and have zero experience.

I have arbed with online world wide bookies and the conclusion is the same : Long term balance in ASIANS bookies is negative , and Long term balance in EUROPEANS bookies is pozitive.

[Miz]

When you spot off market numbers elsewhere, your numbers seem to indicate (and it is reasonable to think) that the +EV side is the off number rather than pinnacle line, making your pinny bet more likely to be the -EV bet of the two bets you place. But I think the trend you've seen with having to balance out your accounts, as well as the numbers you posted suggest that you may consider simply picking off the off-market numbers alone going forward? Do you plan to change your approach at all?

I also understand the risk free preference of some people, and their goals of minimizing risk, versus maximizing growth. I personally don't arb, but use models to identify +EV plays.

[u21c3f6]

Sawyer, Were all of your non-Pinnacle wagers at the max allowed? If not, then your strategy is not optimal. You would actually have more profit by hedging at least some if not all of your bankroll if limits allowed (assuming you would get paid and not cancelled).

Your example is saying that you would wager the same amount on a wager that could lose as you would on a sure thing. I would like to think that everyone would agree that this does not make any sense.

I don't have any problem if you only want to wager on one side, but your presentation is misleading and your premise is incorrect.

Joe.

[Sawyer]

This thread was old but results keep justifying me.

December 2012

Non-Pinnacle Side

RISK	P/L
500 €	475 €
2.600 €	2.470 €
600 €	480 €
200 €	-200 €
600 €	-600 €
130 €	136,50 €
1.013,36 €	304 €
198,36 €	-198,36 €
207 €	-207 €
215 €	-215 €
260 €	382,20 €
500 €	-500 €
900 €	828 €
200 €	-200 €
600 €	-600 €
250 €	262,50 €
1.293 €	-1.293 €
500 €	-500 €
257,18 €	-257,18 €
231,46 €	162 €
290 €	500,83 €
1.200 €	916,80 €
100 €	52,10 €
2.200 €	688,60 €
601 €	181,00 €
901,30 €	-901,30 €
713,74 €	249,81 €
961 €	-961 €
1.200 €	1.320 €
318 €	-318 €
500 €	460 €
2.000 €	-2.000 €
342,76 €	428,45 €
368,54 €	-368,64 €
1.013,70 €	-1.013,70 €
1.500 €	-1.500 €
318 €	283 €
250 €	227,50 €
477 €	434 €
380 €	460 €
349 €	314,10 €
1.000 €	984,50 €
850 €	357 €
150 €	136,50 €
620 €	-620 €
900 €	-900 €
908,50 €	0
2.243,00 €	-2.243 €
1.000 €	250 €
265 €	-265 €
561,55 €	140,39 €
912,75 €	-912,75 €
1.900 €	-1.900 €
250 €	227,50 €
240 €	-240 €
380 €	346 €
50 €	47 €
470 €	-470 €
271 €	257 €
900 €	-900 €
960 €	-960 €
208 €	443,25 €
205 €	436,85 €
250 €	250 €
640 €	160 €
300 €	282 €
358 €	497,62 €
718 €	574,40 €
660 €	165 €
1.296,30 €	777,78 €
450 €	270 €
1.300 €	1.950 €
720 €	720
2.033 €	-2.033 €
210 €	321,30 €
200 €	300 €
740 €	496 €
1.500 €	-1.500 €
1.300 €	949 €
600 €	-600 €
1.250 €	1.000 €
980 €	117,60 €
201 €	182,91 €
500 €	150
1.098 €	878,40 €
300 €	-300 €
1.250 €	1.125 €
650 €	227,50 €
800 €	291,20 €
1.500 €	-1.500 €
750 €	262,50 €
1.250 €	500
1.000 €	-1.000 €
X	X
1.100 €	900 €
380 €	-380 €
268 €	-268 €
940 €	347,80 €
1.288 €	644 €
1.000 €	-1.000 €
2.000 €	800 €
510 €	255 €
2.800 €	-2.800 €
342 €	-342 €
600 €	545,40 €
440 €	400 €
170 €	-170 €
400 €	363,60 €
1.250 €	712,50 €
647,40 €	401,40 €
647,40 €	401,40 €
401,40 €	602,10 €
400 €	363,60 €
800 €	727,20 €
500 €	454,50 €
750 €	681,75 €
240 €	-240 €
700 €	537 €
301,60 €	250,38 €
1.766,48 €	-1.766,48 €
702 €	245,70 €
1.060 €	710,20 €
690 €	-690 €
880 €	-880 €
860,58 €	-860,58 €
920 €	837,20 €
597,33 €	-597,33 €
1.297 €	1.167,30 €
729 €	-729 €
750 €	-750 €
750,75 €	397,90 €
2.000 €	200 €
420 €	381,80 €
1.250 €	-1.250 €
85 €	77,26 €
622 €	-622 €
300,00 €	-300,00 €
408,38 €	89,84 €
1.500 €	0
1.000 €	1.450 €
497 €	149,10 €
206 €	-206 €
219 €	-219 €
214,30 €	-214,30 €
1.842,33 €	1.473,86 €
1.008 €	-1.008 €
1.029 €	-1.029 €
1.100 €	-1.100 €
960 €	872,64 €
1.072,16 €	375,25 €
427,35 €	149,57 €
900 €	-900 €
800 €	-800 €
1.500 €	1.380 €
1.136,75 €	329,65 €
2.266,41 €	2.085 €
500 €	300 €
244 €	-244 €
490 €	441 €
549 €	-549 €
1.752,00 €	-1.752 €
150 €	0
721 €	-721 €
150 €	127,50 €
3.021,36 €	2.266 €
401 €	-401 €
2.564,10 €	1.846,15 €
2.350,43 €	1.692,31 €
234 €	-234 €
228 €	-228 €
1.500 €	1.800 €
448,54 €	-448,54 €
1.405,44 €	-1.405,44 €
447,20 €	-447,20 €
449,55 €	323,70 €
851,80 €	-851,80 €
1.873,14 €	1.498,51 €
2.638,30 €	791,50 €
260 €	234 €
840 €	763,56 €
894,76 €	850 €
341,47 €	307,32 €
400 €	348 €
840 €	-840 €
648,80 €	584 €
1.742,55 €	1.655,42 €
1.000 €	1.000 €
1.000 €	1.000 €
480 €	432 €
886 €	-886 €
720,34 €	972,46 €
215,00 €	322,00 €
285 €	-285 €
250 €	227,50 €
500 €	-500 €
600 €	-600 €
1.267,43 €	-1.267,43 €
1.606 €	1.477,52 €
485 €	-485 €
717,30 €	394,51 €
717,30 €	394,51 €
738,40 €	406,12 €
759,50 €	417,72 €
371,30 €	-371,30 €
6.114 €	611,40 €
801,70 €	240,51 €
2.532,00 €	759,60 €
1.461,00 €	1.461 €
1.351,35 €	-1.351,35 €
1.689 €	1.689 €
760 €	760 €
3.300 €	-3.300 €
1.520 €	-1.520 €
701 €	981,40 €
705,42 €	-705,42 €
6.334,46 €	4.244 €
1.773,65 €	1.596,28 €
1.731,42 €	-1.731,42 €
1.773,65 €	-1.773,65 €
154,70 €	-154,70 €
647,80 €	-647,80 €
886,82 €	798,14 €
929 €	696,75 €
253,40 €	233,12 €
253,40 €	-235,40 €
633,44 €	202,70 €
2.128,40 €	1.553,73 €
591,21 €	431,58 €
4.096,28 €	-4.096,28 €
2.000 €	-2.000 €
1.816 €	1.543,60 €
1.068,41 €	908,15 €
1.773,64 €	1.596,28 €
1.976,56 €	1.877,73 €
212,84 €	478,90 €
205 €	461,25 €
190 €	304 €
196 €	313,60 €
210 €	472,50 €
193 €	308,80 €
452 €	393,24 €
548 €	400 €
539 €	393,47 €
610,50 €	488,40 €
550 €	440 €
425,60 €	-425,60 €
864,32 €	864,32 €
989 €	247,25 €
1.351,35 €	-1.351,35 €
371,73 €	464,66 €
447,25 €	-447,25 €
1.885,23 €	1.489,33 €
1.417,72 €	-1.417,72 €
920 €	239,20 €
220,67 €	-220,67 €
370,30 €	925,75 €
917 €	-917 €
1.730 €	467,10 €
1.601,35 €	1.249 €
2.010 €	985 €
708 €	-708 €
2.124,15 €	1.763 €
968 €	774,40 €
1.094,30 €	875,44 €
2.458 €	-2.458 €
840 €	2.478 €
1.055 €	379,80 €
1.071,73 €	-1.071,73 €
353,58 €	1.113,80 €
5.165 €	-5.165 €
300 €	231 €
431,84 €	-431,84 €
855,20 €	-855,20 €
438,20 €	407,52 €
230 €	202,40 €
120 €	105,60 €
592,72 €	237 €
230,31 €	-230,31 €
431,83 €	414,55 €
863,67 €	829,12 €
1.692,80 €	677,12 €
613,46 €	233,11 €
1.632,10 €	1.583,14 €
1.990 €	-1.990 €
1.312,44 €	-1.312,44 €
849,28 €	815,30 €
2.368,67 €	686,91 €
942,40 €	414,65 €
264 €	224,40 €
257 €	218,45 €
250 €	225 €
250 €	-250 €
158 €	143,78 €
855,20 €	-855,20 €
889 €	-889 €
X	X
1.300,00 €	1.248 €
438 €	407,34 €
1.311,33 €	1.193,31 €
1.732,23 €	1.593,65 €
440 €	404,80 €
641 €	205,12 €
1.284,68 €	423,94 €
850,25 €	425,12 €
622 €	435,40 €
622 €	435,40 €
1.274,50 €	892,15 €
850 €	-850 €
1.282 €	423,06 €
1.020 €	700,74 €
1.700 €	1.615 €
1.659 €	1.576 €
657 €	-657 €
673 €	673 €
42 €	44,26 €
1.086 €	999,12 €
1.709 €	-1.709 €
1.755,50 €	1.457 €
1.701 €	-1.701 €
677 €	-677 €
592,20 €	-592,20 €
16,92 €	-16,92 €
169,50 €	169,50 €
211,86 €	169,49 €
1.949,00 €	-1.949 €
428 €	419,44 €
627,11 €	-627,11 €
646,18 €	200,32 €
423,73 €	-423,73 €
430 €	-430 €
440,68 €	405,42 €
444,91 €	-444,91 €
1.000 €	-1.000 €
860,17 €	266,65 €
995,76 €	916,10 €
445,00 €	133,50 €
600,84	246,34 €
423,73 €	360,17
312,71 €	250,16 €
1.720 €	1.427,60 €
1.881,35 €	-1.881,35 €
1.262,71 €	-1.262,71 €
1.440,67 €	1.872,87 €

Total Profit: 30,768€

Pinnacle Side

c	457,74 €	-457,74 €
2,09	2.426 €	-2.426 €
2,34	462,00 €	-462 €
1,98	227,30 €	227,30 €
2,38	454 €	626,52 €
2,04	130,00 €	-130 €
4,85	271,62 €	-271,62 €
1,862	266,32 €	229,56 €
1,8	287,36 €	229,88 €
1,751	307 €	230,55 €
1,75	367 €	-367 €
2,23	431 €	-431 €
2,2	786 €	-786 €
2,21	174 €	210,54 €
2,13	535,21 €	604,79 €
2,07	248 €	-248 €
2,074	1.034,50 €	-1.034,50 €
2,02	483 €	492,66
2,16	231 €	268 €
2,56	153,70 €	-153,70 €
1,61	438,85 €	-438,85 €
2,5	847,20 €	-847,20 €
X	X	X
7,45	506 €	-506 €
19,29	181 €	-181 €
5,52	210 €	949,20 €
4,11	234,44 €	-234,44 €
4,18	311 €	989 €
2,05	1.230 €	-1.230 €
2,21	269 €	325,50 €
2,2	436,36 €	-436,36 €
2,48	1.404 €	2.078 €
1,917	402,30 €	-402,30 €
1,847	450 €	381,15 €
2,68	624 €	1.048,32 €
2,68	933 €	1.567,44 €
2,25	267,00 €	-267 €
2,15	222 €	0 €
2,15	424 €	-424 €
1,917	445 €	-445 €
2,14	311 €	-311 €
2,18	910 €	-910 €
5,64-12,12	312 €	-312 €
2,13	134,50 €	-134,50 €
4,25-6,51	416,37 €	651,20 €
2,12	811 €	908,32 €
3,73	353,20 €	0
3,25	1.033,40 €	2.325,15 €
5,5	227,27 €	-227,27 €
2,15	230,13 €	264,65 €
5,98	117,40 €	-117,40 €
3,11	441 €	930,51 €
3,21	890 €	1.967 €
2,14	223,13 €	-223,13 €
2,18	210,27 €	248,12 €
2,2	330 €	-330 €
1,961	50 €	-50 €
2,13	421,50 €	476,30 €
2,08	248,43 €	-248,43 €
3,17	436 €	946,12 €
4,95 & 7,79	491,60 €	1002,02
1,555	414,65 €	-414,65 €
1,555	417,62	-417,62 €
2,24	223 €	-223 €
6,41	125 €	-125
2,07	281,15	-281,15 €
1,757	487 €	-487 €
2,32	557 €	-557 €
5,5	150 €	-150
2,9	721 €	-721 €
2,99	241 €	-241 €
1,763	1.844 €	-1.844 €
2,17	664 €	-664 €
3,74	761 €	2.085,14 €
1,77	300 €	-300 €
1,884	263 €	-263 €
2,61	473,50 €	-473,50 €
1,84	1.875 €	1.575 €
2,51	896 €	-896 €
4,61	169,20 €	610,81 €
2,43	926 €	-926 €
9,93	110,53 €	-110,53 €
2,13	180 €	-180 €
6,57	99 €	-99
2,43	813 €	-813 €
2,29	250,21 €	322,77 €
2,24	1.060 €	-1.060 €
4,36	201,26 €	-201,26 €
4,36	250 €	-250 €
1,98	1.591 €	1.559 €
11,60 & 6,30	248,35 €	-248,35 €
3,65	479,45 €	-479,45 €
2,15	773,70 €	890 €
2,11	116 €	128,76 €
2,33	858,28 €	-858,28 €
2,18	333 €	393 €
2,2	231,50 €	278 €
4,05	318 €	-318 €
3,2	604 €	-604 €
2,12	905,66 €	1.014,34 €
3,77	743 €	-743 €
3,05	250,80 €	-250,80 €
1,869	3.221,00 €	2.799 €
1,699	553,56 €	387 €
2,12-2,17	537 €	-537 €
2,19	384 €	-384 €
2,16	150 €	174 €
2,11	362 €	-362 €
8,12-4,60	668,31 €	-668,31 €
2,75	381,40 €	-381,40 €
2,8	347,56 €	-347,56 €
3,27	307 €	-307 €
3,75	267,60 €	-267,60 €
2,14	357 €	-357 €
2,1	727,23 €	800 €
2,15	444 €	-444 €
2,11	678,55 €	-678,55 €
2,1	228,57 €	251,43 €
2,41-2,47	492 €	-492 €
2,34	231,40 €	-231,40 €
3,92	613 €	1.790 €
4,22	224,60 €	-224,60 €
2,44	725,50 €	-725,50 €
1,98	766 €	750,68 €
5,16	229 €	952,64 €
5,12	225,31 €	928,28 €
2,14	821,12 €	-821,12 €
5,42	137,76 €	608,90 €
2,06	1.196,55 €	-1.196,55 €
2,12	660 €	739,20 €
2,13	676 €	763,90 €
3,03	379 €	-379 €
11,75	187,23 €	-187,23 €
2,13	376,42 €	-376,42 €
2,13	1.120,30 €	1.266 €
2,11	77 €	-77 €
2,63	425 €	692,75 €
2,52	214,50 €	326 €
6,62	75,25 €	-75,25 €
6,16 & 15,55	448,75 €	0
1,746	1.404 €	-1.404 €
4,99	129,00 €	-129 €
2,01	229 €	231,30 €
1,87	263,50 €	229,24 €
1,418	544 €	227,40 €
2,47	1.343 €	-1.343 €
11,55	123 €	1.297,65 €
5,52	259,30 €	-259,30 €
11,53	126,83 €	1.335,52 €
5,52	264,70 €	-264,70 €
10,99	142,12 €	1.420 €
5,44	287,13	-287,13 €
2,16	848,44 €	-848,44 €
4,34	333,50 €	-333,50 €
4,29	134,50 €	-134,50 €
2,18	788,11 €	930 €
2,05	765 €	803,25 €
2,2	1.309 €	-1.309 €
6,4 & 18,1	310,00 €	-310 €
2,52	1.727 €	-1.727 €
2,87	278,75 €	-278,75 €
2,08	230 €	248,4
2,16	431 €	0
2,49	375 €	558,75 €
2,2	1553	1.863,60 €
1,729	212,55 €	0
2,13	677 €	765 €
2,14	130 €	-130 €
2,5	2.115 €	-2.115 €
1,657	581 €	381,72 €
2,52	1.750 €	-1.750 €
2,51	1.611 €	-1.611 €
2,1	228 €	250,80 €
2,05	228 €	239,40 €
1,934	1.706,30 €	-1.706,30 €
3,01	228 €	458,28 €
2,02	1.426,32 €	1.454,84 €
2,26	386 €	486,36 €
2,31	334,72 €	-334,72 €
2,2	755 €	906 €
2,36	1.428,66 €	-1.428,66 €
6,72	510,38 €	-510,38 €
16,03	214 €	-214 €
2,15	228 €	-228
2,12	756,40 €	-756,40 €
2,2	793 €	-793 €
2,2	295 €	-295 €
2,21	338,46 €	0
2,12	760 €	851,20 €
2,15	573,35 €	-573,35 €
2,27	1.497 €	-1.497 €
2,24	848 €	-848 €
2,2	864 €	-864 €
2,17	100 €	-100 €
2,17	420,27 €	-420,27 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
1,73	310 €	-310 €
2,16-2,20	252 €	293,36 €
2,1	226,41 €	-226,41 €
2,16	442 €	512,72 €
2,17	528 €	617,76 €
2,11-2,07	1.203,57 €	1.331,70 €
2,18	1.415 €	-1.415 €
2,25	421 €	526,25 €
2,92	377,85 €	-377,85 €
2,94	377,85	-377,85 €
3,16	377,85	-377,85 €
3,03	377,85 €	-377,85 €
2,71	226 €	386,46 €
13,5	498 €	-498 €
4,61	226,70 €	-226,70 €
5,08	648 €	-648 €
2,21	1.322,00 €	-1.322 €
2	1.385,13 €	1.385,13 €
2,18	1.550 €	-1.550 €
2,18	697 €	-697 €
2,85	1.933 €	3.576 €
2,09	1.477 €	1.610 €
1,775	948 €	-948 €
2,93	378 €	729,54 €
2,82	3.751 €	-3.751 €
2,26	1.491 €	-1.491 €
2,16	1.563 €	1.813,08 €
2,28	1.478 €	1.891,84 €
2,21	133 €	160,93 €
2,25	561,42 €	701,77 €
2,19	770 €	-770 €
2,43	669 €	-669 €
2,16	225,22 €	-225,22 €
2,16	225,22 €	261,25 €
4,22	198 €	-198 €
2,43	1.516 €	-1.516 €
2,43	421 €	-421 €
2,25	3.370 €	4.212,50 €
2,09	1923,2	2.096,29 €
2,35	1.430 €	-1.430 €
2,25	878,50 €	-878,50 €
2,2	1.532 €	-1.532 €
2,14	1.801 €	-1.801 €
1,49	464,24 €	-464,24 €
1,518	439 €	-439 €
1,854	266 €	-266 €
1,806	282 €	-282 €
1,497	457 €	-457 €
1,826	275 €	-275 €
2,23	379 €	-379 €
2,5	379 €	-379 €
2,46	379 €	-379 €
2,39	460 €	-460 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
2,15	804 €	924,60 €
6,8	182 €	-182 €
1,84	1.748 €	1.468,32 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
X	X	X
5,26	417,70 €	-417,70 €
2,53	1.127,00 €	-1.127 €
3,05	981 €	-981 €
2,09	718 €	782,62 €
2,31	1.685 €	-1.685 €
2,43	717 €	-717 €
2,41	817,30 €	-817,30 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
4,05	354,30 €	-354,30 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
4,6	1.493 €	5.375 €
2,34	227 €	-227 €
2,2	400 €	480 €
2,2	755 €	906 €
2,2	384,40 €	-384,40 €
2,17	200 €	-200 €
2,53	89,16 €	-89,16 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
2,14	395,50 €	-395,50 €
2,15	791 €	-791 €
3,85	615 €	-615 €
3,98	212,70 €	-212,70 €
2,18	1.475 €	-1.475 €
2,17	1.743 €	2.039,31 €
2,18	1.162 €	1.371,16 €
2,15	774,22 €	-774,22 €
6,02	508 €	-508 €
3,59	378 €	-378 €
2,16	226 €	-226 €
2,2	222 €	-222,00 €
2,09	226,86 €	-226,86 €
2,13	223 €	252 €
2,16	140 €	-140 €
2,1	806,33 €	886,96 €
4	424,50 €	1.273,50 €
4,76	357 €	-357 €
2,15	1.185 €	-1.185 €
2,18	388 €	-388 €
2,26	1.108,24 €	-1.108,24 €
2,2	1.512 €	-1.512 €
2,2	384 €	-384 €
4,48	189 €	-189 €
4,48	381,38 €	-381,38 €
3,38	377,32 €	-377,32 €
2,8	378 €	-378 €
2,8	378 €	-378 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
4,51	378 €	-378 €
2,66	647 €	-647 €
2,05	1512	-1.512 €
2,03	1700	-1.700 €
X	X	X
X	X	X
2,25	34,28 €	-34,28 €
2,25	927 €	-927 €
2,19	1.512,40 €	1.799,75 €
2,22	1.510 €	-1.510 €
1,781	1.882,20 €	1.470 €
1,9	837 €	753,30 €
1,847	605 €	512,43 €
1,73	211,50 €	154,40 €
2,48	136,70 €	-136,70 €
2,54	150,13 €	-150,13 €
4,65	545 €	1.989 €
2,21	383 €	-383 €
4,1	206,50 €	640,15 €
4,65	182 €	-182 €
4,1	141,60 €	439 €
2,11	401,46 €	445,62 €
2,33	363,13 €	-363,13 €
4,2	145	464 €
2,2	863,63 €	1.036,35 €
5,17	218 €	-218 €
2,2	869 €	-869 €
5,08	113,85 €	-113,85 €
3,8	223 €	-223 €
2,25	384,40 €	-384,40 €
2,41	233,55 €	-233,55 €
2,32	1.356,72 €	-1.356,72 €
2,3	1.497 €	1.946 €
2,29	1.009 €	1.301,61 €
1,892	1.751,34 €	-1.751,34 €

Total Profit: -17218€

30,768 - 17218 = 13550€

+13550€ Net Profit if you covered all your surebets at Pinnacle. +30,768€ Profit if you don't cover your arbitrage action at Pinnacle side.

[u21c3f6]

Another Example

Got Niculescu-Ivanovic U19½ Games at -110 in a local and Over 19½ is +149 at Pinnacle. It's a %8.09 surebet. Under 19½ is -184 at Pinnacle. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand you will make profit no matter over long haul if you pick a -184 pinnacle line at -110.

Will you be wagering the limit at your local @-110?

Joe.

[Sawyer]

Another Example

Got Niculescu-Ivanovic U19½ Games at -110 in a local and Over 19½ is +149 at Pinnacle. It's a %8.09 surebet. Under 19½ is -184 at Pinnacle. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand you will make profit no matter over long haul if you pick a -184 pinnacle line at -110.

[sayhey69]

theres no reason the fair line is the midpoint. in the example the pinny line is at -164/+140. so the fair line would be between +/- 140-164 assuming pinny is efficient. which is a good assumption in a major market.

[hutennis]

So then how can you tell how much EV you have?

Your correct no-one did say it, I took it that this was what the thread was about, using the pinnacle line as your guide to place bets. I picked the mid point of their line to be the fairest true line.

How are we finding out what the + EV is? What is your view on the fair line? Care to give a value?

Not that it is a point, but 152 would not be a fairest true line.
149 would be.

As to the point, again, with an assumption that there is no risk of cancellation and pinny is a benchmark (reasonable), it all comes down to a very simple arithmetic. I gave an example of it in a beginning of this thread and it is the way to approach the problem.

Maximum single bet size is calculated using BR figure and whatever fraction of Kelly you are comfortable with and then EV dollars of that bet
are compared to EV dollars of full size arbitrage. Whichever method yields more $$ is the one to use.
Really simple, is not it?

[Jubeibeats]

So then how can you tell how much EV you have?

Your correct no-one did say it, I took it that this was what the thread was about, using the pinnacle line as your guide to place bets. I picked the mid point of their line to be the fairest true line.

How are we finding out what the + EV is? What is your view on the fair line? Care to give a value?

[sayhey69]

no one ever said the fair line is +/-152

[Jubeibeats]

sorry i thought we were concerned with maximizing profits. once you bring in utility everything else goes out the window. i have a friend who maximizes his utility by betting his entire roll, another one that maximizes his utility by not betting at all and infinitely many that do every option in between. can they all be right? should i give a shit about their choices when my only goal is to maximize profit/br growth?



bolded is false as has already been covered in this thread. and one option is more +ev

Okay, tell me what the +EV is on both of them. Tell me how you can be 100% certain the Pinnacle line is the exact true line? You cannot tell me what the +EV is on that bet. Who is to say that bet is really +/-152. Thats why a little utility comes in.

[Jubeibeats]

I'm guessing he is assuming no risk of cancellation.

Of course I am, I do my work and due dilligence, so I only bet and play with books that I know wont pull that on me. I know what a bad line is and what an off line is, and play accordingly, never had a play cancelled on a scalp, ever.

[stevex]

Not possible in the U.S. any more...

[Sawyer]

Definetely. You must be sure your wagers won't be cancelled so stay away from obivious error/loose lines. Even Pinnacle (the most reliable bookmaker on earth) can void a bet if line/odd is wrong. Any surebet up to %5-6 is okay though..but if you spot a %20-30 crazy surebet, then you better be careful, it may be a loose line.

As long as you work with a reliable bookie (some books are very very weird, they can cancel your wagers, close your account etc) and stay away from obivious error/loose lines, you won't have any problem.

Many books don't tolerate arbitrage players but there's some "secret" ways to camouflage your action..Shhhhhh!

Another option is,

You can create "freebets" when making arbitrage.

Let's say Hereford Gangbangers are 2,07 in x bookie. York Masturbators are 2,00 at Pinnacle. You bet 1000$ on York Masturbators and 1000$ on Hereford Gangbangers. If your bet at pinnacle wins, you lose nothing. You win nothing either..if Hereford Gangbangers win, you make 70$ profit. You would win 34.40$ no matter which side wins by hedging both sides. The choice is up to you.

Have fun with arbitrage

[Inspirited]

I'm guessing he is assuming no risk of cancellation.