Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[sayhey69]

Forget my drivel about that though, the original problem comes down to risk reward and how much it is worth to you, whether you scalp or play comes down to that decision. Was just making the point that some people work better under different circumstances, like not having to sweat plays that you didnt do your own work on.

sorry i thought we were concerned with maximizing profits. once you bring in utility everything else goes out the window. i have a friend who maximizes his utility by betting his entire roll, another one that maximizes his utility by not betting at all and infinitely many that do every option in between. can they all be right? should i give a shit about their choices when my only goal is to maximize profit/br growth?

There is a lot of assuming being done about pinnacle, which I am not disputing, but I would like to see some real hard evidence of plays, with line data, when the bet was placed, what sports etc etc. Never ever seen anyone produce some sort of breakdown like that, I just see people saying that pinnacle line is the word! There is some risk attached to that.

That scalp, no risk ever.

Each have their merits, each are +EV. The scalp is certain as certain can be, the bet has some uncertainty attached to it, whatever level that is.

bolded is false as has already been covered in this thread. and one option is more +ev

[Jubeibeats]

no idea what the bolded means


that wont happen if you are hedging the other side?

The bold bit was just my terrible english, I meant the Bet that was talked about, sans scalp with Pinnacle.

On your 2nd point, yes probably will, the scalpers have been making sure of that for years already, and now everyman and his wife is blindly playing line differences, so it will probably happen a bit quicker.

Forget my drivel about that though, the original problem comes down to risk reward and how much it is worth to you, whether you scalp or play comes down to that decision. Was just making the point that some people work better under different circumstances, like not having to sweat plays that you didnt do your own work on.

There is a lot of assuming being done about pinnacle, which I am not disputing, but I would like to see some real hard evidence of plays, with line data, when the bet was placed, what sports etc etc. Never ever seen anyone produce some sort of breakdown like that, I just see people saying that pinnacle line is the word! There is some risk attached to that.

That scalp, no risk ever.

Each have their merits, each are +EV. The scalp is certain as certain can be, the bet has some uncertainty attached to it, whatever level that is.

[tto827]

I am new to sports betting for profit/value vs. thinking I know more than the people who set the lines and just doing it for fun, so be warned this may come across as dumb.

Anyhow, my view on the topic.

As others have stated you have to consider all books as one, and realize a net profit, not a net loss and a net gain for each book separately.

Given a small sample size, it is highly likely that you win at one more than the other. But calculating a true rate of return on a single bet is close to impossible, what you say is 85% likely, my research may show 82% and that can turn the EV from net +5% to a -5% net. Unless your research is great and you have found a way to "beat the system" you will lose in the long run taking only one side. You are hedging the bet to guarantee a win, yes it is smaller but it is a win none the less.

There are times that taking the other side is a mistake to create an arbitrage bet, if there is reason that the odds have swung in your favor then it may be against your best interest to hedge your bet.
For example, lets say you get team A at 5-1 in the final four to win it all (hypothetically they have a 25% chance here). If team A and B advance to the final and Both teams are now -110, you theoretically have an even money shot (50/50) at 5-1 odds, so throwing those favorable odds away is not the best financial decision.

Sorry that got wordy but wanted to get a point across, there are times that hedging (sorry if that's the wrong term but that's what I call an arbitrage bet) is the wrong decision from an EV standpoint, but on a single game where the odds are likely not too much in your favor, you would be more likely to see a net gain by hedging your bet.

[sayhey69]

Fair enough, but you can still basically render your BR small and useless with a bad run. There is still an inherent risk to the bet where as the Scalp has no risk, wont ever have any risk ever, whereas that Pinnacle odds bet, will eventually come to an end.

no idea what the bolded means

You are all going to end up with a bunch of books cloning pinnacles numbers all the time, and those differences will disapear, just like every other market driven method, the market will eventually correct for it.

that wont happen if you are hedging the other side?

[Jubeibeats]

Fair enough, but you can still basically render your BR small and useless with a bad run. There is still an inherent risk to the bet where as the Scalp has no risk, wont ever have any risk ever, whereas that Pinnacle odds bet, will eventually come to an end.

You are all going to end up with a bunch of books cloning pinnacles numbers all the time, and those differences will disapear, just like every other market driven method, the market will eventually correct for it.

[sayhey69]

but its impossible to go broke betting full kelly

[Jubeibeats]

since were stuck in the world of hypotheticals ill throw this one out. suppose we have a 100k roll. pinny is at -164/+140 and the book A is at -120/-110. limit is 500 and the line will move to -180/+120 after we bet it once at book A. how do we maximize ev? and how do you recommend betting this situation?

The bet is the better play in a theoretical world.

But we live in the real world, where risk of ruin is a very real factor, and no matter how you look at it, there is a risk of going broke with the bet.

Its all a matter of personal choice, you can make arguments either way for and against the bet or the scalp, but it comes down to what personal choice you make.

Lots of factors to think about, like what event is the bet on, how sure you are Pinnacle are the authority on that event? If your talking about US Sports(main 4) then your hypothetical is not going to happen. loads of other things to consider, at what time is the bet available, early market, late market.

I believe a lot in creating an environment for yourself where you feel comfortable, someone with a bit of go in them could go for the bet, the more conservative go for the scalp.

Personally I wouldnt place a bet I had not done some actual work on, but I have my style, make a line and bet the openers. I dont bet anywhere close to big enough to worry about limits or anything like that.

At the limits you state, and assuming Pinnacle line is really the true line, then you get 20 Bucks more(approx) by taking the bet over the scalp, but you also get a little bit of risk with that option which is totally eliminated by the scalp, no risk at all with that.

Risk - Reward, and that is a very personal choice to make, to make blanket statements is not wise, horses for courses, and comfort for that bettor.

The question is how much value is the removal of risk worth to you as an individual?

[chachi]

Pardon me but you won't lose anything if you're making arbitrage. It's a win-win situation.

Was referring to the 'do not hedge the arb' commentary not doing it matched off

[mr.ed]

I suppose if your primary goal is to not lose your bankroll, you can't go wrong taking arbitrage as you are removing risk from the equation and your account will slowly rise. On the other hand, if you are in it for the long term and are looking to maximize profits, throwing money consistently at the bad side is safe, but will result in a serious drag on your profits.

Nearly impossible to lose your bankroll if you are adept at recognizing positive expectation plays and wagering accordingly. Only one with absolutely no money management skills could manage to lose it all by wagering on positive expectation plays.

[Sawyer]

But a few I know in the arbing game would lose 3/4 of their bankroll on 7 losses in a row as they're always arbing max poss stakes ...

Pardon me but you won't lose anything if you're making arbitrage. It's a win-win situation.

A large majority of the time value will be on non-pinnacle side, so long term you will be much better off playing the other side only when arbitrage opportunities arise.

[u21c3f6]

Taking arbitrage only useful when you are unable to determine which side has the value. ...

This is absolutely incorrect. One needs an understanding of EG to understand why even if you did know the +EV side that you are (almost always) still better off taking the arbitrage.

Joe.

[mr.ed]

Taking arbitrage only useful when you are unable to determine which side has the value.

A large majority of the time value will be on non-pinnacle side, so long term you will be much better off playing the other side only when arbitrage opportunities arise.

[hutennis]

Well that is what should be descussed in this thread, will you save money on following BRM and skipp pinnacle to save money on the juice you pay to pinnacle for your -ev bet? Or do you make more money on betting max stakes and have the risk of losing due to voied bets and paying juice to pinnacle ?
This question is depended on the size of BR so have that in mind while answering .

There is nothing more to answer.
It is already been answered in this thread with calculations made with size of BR in mind and under assumption that risk of canceling is not an issue.

[Avskum]

Well that is what should be descussed in this thread, will you save money on following BRM and skipp pinnacle to save money on the juice you pay to pinnacle for your -ev bet? Or do you make more money on betting max stakes and have the risk of losing due to voied bets and paying juice to pinnacle ?
This question is depended on the size of BR so have that in mind while answering .

[hutennis]

Yep.

The problem here is that the EV being talked about will typically be pretty small. Say 4%, half-Kelly, you're supposed to stake 2% a pop ..... and most will do 10% and go bankrupt in no time.

This is precisely what OP either doe's not want to or is unable to understand.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

But a few I know in the arbing game would lose 3/4 of their bankroll on 7 losses in a row as they're always arbing max poss stakes ...

Yep.

The problem here is that the EV being talked about will typically be pretty small. Say 4%, half-Kelly, you're supposed to stake 2% a pop ..... and most will do 10% and go bankrupt in no time.

[chachi]

6-7 in a row can happen one day bu it's meaningless. You must look over long haul. Even losing 6 in a row didn't happen yet but even if it happens, as I said you must look over long haul. Don't think on short term.

But a few I know in the arbing game would lose 3/4 of their bankroll on 7 losses in a row as they're always arbing max poss stakes ...

[Sawyer]

and when 6-7 in a row don't come in, 'not hedging the arb' doesn't seem as smart as before

6-7 in a row can happen one day bu it's meaningless. You must look over long haul. Even losing 6 in a row didn't happen yet but even if it happens, as I said you must look over long haul. Don't think on short term.

It is not very smart to bet 50% of your bankroll on a single arbitrage since theres a chance that the winning bet gets voied.

Definetely. It's a huge risk. Even in arbitrage,there's some risks. Odds can change while you're placing your bet etc.

I agree with sawyer that the Pinnacle bet can be skipped, but then you have to be sure that the other bet is +ev, you are betting +ev why throw money some where else? you will save money on voied bets. They only reason to keep betting at pinnacle depends on your BR, as said in this thread.

Agreed. That's true. It's EXTREMELY important to be sure that other bet is +EV. You concluded the situation with a golden sentence: You are betting +EV, why throw money some where else?

By the way, let me add something. "Arbitrage/surebet is waste of money if you're betting other side at pinnacle" is more strong in +%4 or better surebets. Maybe we can add %3 surebets too but definetely, %4-%5 surebets are losing more often then %1-2 surebets at Pinnacle. There isn't anything extremely significiant for %1-2 surebets but seriously, I strongly suggest to skip other side at Pinnacle if you found a %4-5 surebet.

Just 1 week ago. Galatasararay-Banvit game. Gala was 1,45 at (-222) Pinnacle and I found Galatasaray 1,70 (-142 approximately) at a cyprus bookie. Banvit was priced 2,20 (+120) at cyprus bookie and +180 at Pinnacle. 2,80 & 1,70 (+180 and -142) means a %5.78 golden surebet. Result? Of course, Galatasaray won, lol. Even if Gala had lost, it wouldn't matter..picking a bet at -142 while it's -222 at Pinnacle is a fukkin' EV+ wager and you will make profit over long haul. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand it. However, if you have a short arbitrage, say like -125 and +130, (%0.98) you better cover Pinnacle side too. As long as you find a %4+ (and maybe +%3.5 and above) surebet, you must seriously consider (the bet you spotted is a really value bet?) skipping other side at Pinnacle.

Regards,

Sawyer

[chachi]

and when 6-7 in a row don't come in, 'not hedging the arb' doesn't seem as smart as before

[easyliving]

what is this square bookie that posts these line that allow you to arbitrate? Also if you were able to conclude that pinnacle's lines are sharper and they are usually correct on their odds don't you think people would compare these lines to pinnacle and bet the side pinnacle thought had the upper hand.

for example

Let's say odds are like this at Pinnacle,

Jack to win -164
Mike to win +140

You find "Jack to win" bet at -120 in another bookie.

according to your logic more often than not Jack would win in this situation as Pinnacle's lines are sharper. With this logic you can conclude that you can find such situations where a bookie offers better odds than pinnacle on a favorite and bet them continously and make a nice profit in the long run.

[Avskum]

It is not very smart to bet 50% of your bankroll on a single arbitrage since theres a chance that the winning bet gets voied.

I agree with sawyer that the Pinnacle bet can be skipped, but then you have to be sure that the other bet is +ev, you are betting +ev why throw money some where else? you will save money on voied bets. They only reason to keep betting at pinnacle depends on your BR, as said in this thread.

Your theory that you would save all your net losses at your pinnacle account is not true. you will only save the money you pay in jucie to pinnacle. Which can be quite some.....

[hutennis]

I think you mean EG.

Joe.

That too. EV and EG.

[RonPaul2008]

An arb or hedge should generally be only be done if the hedging side is +ev (this happens all the time, though not so much at pinnacle). Of course, this is only true to the extent that you want to risk the full amount you have on the original side and you should hedge off whatever you don't want to risk.

[u21c3f6]

...The whole point is that arbitrage EV, depending on calculations, can be much higher than EV of a straight bet and larger BR does not necessarily takes it away. It depends. ...

I think you mean EG.

Joe.

[hutennis]

From the information I've gotten from this thread at the moment, it just seems that it all depends on your bankroll size and how it's spread out.

Only if you live in US. If you don't live in a freest country in a world that does not allow its citizens to do whatever they want to do with their own money in a privacy of their own homes, then you have excess to online wallets and can make transfers and deposits instantaneously and free. OP does have this option.

With the straight bets you're taking on risk. With arbitrage your bets are ~ risk free. Your ev is higher with the straight bet, but because arbitrage is ~ risk free you can bet larger amounts than you would bet on a straight bet. Once your bankroll is large enough that your tapping the limits then the advantage of betting more on arbitrage goes away and you return to straight betting. ???

The whole point is that arbitrage EV, depending on calculations, can be much higher than EV of a straight bet and larger BR does not necessarily takes it away. It depends.

Also, hutennis probably thinks sawyer is just getting lucky because hutennis thinks only rare people can beat the books and none of these people currently inhabit SBR.

This point you totally misunderstood.
I tried to explain the reason why his hedging side was depleting so fast and why the way he approached this phenomena is totally wrong.

Everyone he meets who beats the books he refers them to binomial distribution of winners and says that it 's expected that some person will get lucky by chance. For hutennis arbing is the only way for the rest of us to make any money. ???

Not for the rest of us. For 99% of us. And this is not my number. It's an industry statistic.
If you are smart or brave or ignorant or reckless enough to disregard it and still want to fight these horrible odds, please, go right ahead. I could not care less.

[sayhey69]

also depends on cost of transferring money between books. both monetary and opportunity if it takes time for the transfer and you are missing other +ev spots.

[Inspirited]

From the information I've gotten from this thread at the moment, it just seems that it all depends on your bankroll size and how it's spread out. With the straight bets you're taking on risk. With arbitrage your bets are ~ risk free. Your ev is higher with the straight bet, but because arbitrage is ~ risk free you can bet larger amounts than you would bet on a straight bet. Once your bankroll is large enough that your tapping the limits then the advantage of betting more on arbitrage goes away and you return to straight betting. ???

Also, hutennis probably thinks sawyer is just getting lucky because hutennis thinks only rare people can beat the books and none of these people currently inhabit SBR. Everyone he meets who beats the books he refers them to binomial distribution of winners and says that it 's expected that some person will get lucky by chance. For hutennis arbing is the only way for the rest of us to make any money. ???

[hutennis]

This month, (based on risking 1 unit each bet)

Bets I placed in other books produced +11.2 Units.
Bets I placed in pinnacle, resulted in a -8.3 Units loss.

Since April,

Bets I placed other books produced +72.41 Units.
Bets I placed in pinnacle resulted in a -52.32 Units loss.

So my overall profit by surebet was approximately +20 Units. While I won +72.41 Units in other books, I left a fortune on the table, -52.32 Units.

I'm talking about facts here, numbers. You still say implied probability blah blah.

Here are two facts.

1. Implied probability is not blah, blah.
2. You are hopeless.

[Sawyer]

This month, (based on risking 1 unit each bet)

Bets I placed in other books produced +11.2 Units.
Bets I placed in pinnacle, resulted in a -8.3 Units loss.

Since April,

Bets I placed other books produced +72.41 Units.
Bets I placed in pinnacle resulted in a -52.32 Units loss.

So my overall profit by surebet was approximately +20 Units. While I won +72.41 Units in other books, I left a fortune on the table, -52.32 Units.

I'm talking about facts here, numbers. You still say implied probability blah blah.

[hutennis]

Let me talk in units then. Hold on a second.

Its not about units either. Units are the same as money.
You need implied probability of winning vs actual results.

[Sawyer]

Let me talk in units then. Hold on a second.

[hutennis]

[/B]

If the value side I bet at other book wasn't value, how my net profit at these books is so high? To each book, I only deposited once.

Or we can ask the question in reverse,

If the other side I bet at pinnacle wasn't negative, then my Pinnacle account would go up, isn't it? But the other side I bet is EV- so my pinnacle account keep decreasing.

Yeah, looks like it's pretty hopeless, but I'll try one more time.
The answer is simple. I quote from above.

Because you simply were getting lucky for a while with your value bets on favorite.
You won more than your fair share and naturally, as most people do, got confused by results.
Now you don't see any need for covering. Why through money away? Right.

Yeah. Wait a little. As soon as you stop hedging you will see 6 month when you won't be able to buy a win with your favorite no matter how great your odds are. Then come back and will talk.

Account balances and bank statements are worst places to look for answers to EV questions.

[Sawyer]

Yeah. Wait a little. As soon as you stop hedging you will see 6 month when you won't be able to buy a win with your favorite no matter how great your odds are. Then come back and will talk.

Favourite? Sometimes, I bet the dog on other side. It's me who lived this, so I know what's happening. I'm confident with my opinion. I'm really tired of depositing pinnacle over and over again. However, If I have a negative experience, I will write it here.

[Sawyer]

Admittedly, it's no more than 2 years. Maybe it is not a lot, but I'm kinda fast learner, lol.

Okay, end of discussion you can leave now Well, according to your posts, I doubt you're a fast learner

please tell me what difference does it make for EV calculations?

Jesus! Please tell me it's a joke. Please read carefull my post(s) above!

But since you said you're a slow..I mean fast-learner, let me tell you again. This is my last post to you cause I'm really get bored.

What difference does it make EV+?

This month, I withdrawed 11,200€ from other books but I deposited 8000€ to my pinnacle account.

Previos month wasn't different either.

It's happening since the start of baseball season as I said 19198998141 million times in this thread.

If the value side I bet at other book wasn't value, how my net profit at these books is so high? To each book, I only deposited once.

Or we can ask the question in reverse,

If the other side I bet at pinnacle wasn't negative, then my Pinnacle account would go up, isn't it? But the other side I bet is EV- so my pinnacle account keep decreasing.

However, the x side I bet in other books were strong EV+ bets,

There's 2 evidence for this,

1- My net profit in other books is very high but my net profit in pinnacle is extremely negative. There's a huge loss there.

2- X side is -164 at Pinnacle, Y side is +140. You bet X side at -110 in another book. If you don't think it's a EV+ bet, then I'm afraid we don't have anything to talk anymore

PS: The bookie you cover the other side must be Pinnacle. Things can change if it's another bookie since Pinnacle lines are very sharp.

[hutennis]

When I look my bank details in last 6 months, I see betting other side at pinnacle in a surebet with a edge of %4 or higher, is clearly negative proposition. So why bet it?

Because you simply were getting lucky for a while with your value bets on favorite.
You won more than your fair share and naturally, as most people do, got confuse by results.
Now you don't see any need for covering. Why through money away? Right.

Yeah. Wait a little. As soon as you stop hedging you will see 6 month when you won't be able to buy a win with your favorite no matter how great your odds are. Then come back and will talk.