Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[hutennis]

Huuuuutetris,

Did you made arbitrage bets (with %4-5 return) between other books and Pinnacle consistently in last 6 months?

Jesus!

I really don't see how that can effect the number, but if you insist...

I've done all kinds of arbitrage trades on a regular basis for last 20+ years and I made money doing it.

In sports, I arbitrage in one form or another on a daily basis almost since I found out how to read odds tables.
Admittedly, it's no more than 2 years. Maybe it is not a lot, but I'm kinda fast learner, lol.

Now, after I think I answered your question, please tell me what difference does it make for EV calculations?

[Sawyer]

It's you who refuses to understand. I'm really tried of this. I don't care if you don't understand, lol.

It's about the numbers man, it's all about fukkin' numbers and my bank details/betting history proves it so I'm not interested in your "theorotical" opinions.

Betting the other side on Pinnacle is only clearly and definitely a negative proposition if EV numbers say it is. Not b/c you feel like it is. And guess what, you know it ahead of time so you simply don't do it.

Of course, it's EV+. If something is -200 at pinnacle and you're taking it at -125. It's fukkin' EV man, lol. No need to be a rocket scientist to understand it.

When I look my bank details in last 6 months, I see betting other side at pinnacle in a surebet with a edge of %4 or higher, is clearly negative proposition. So why bet it?

Huuutenis,

I have a question for you.

Huuuuutetris,

Did you made arbitrage bets (with %4-5 return) between other books and Pinnacle consistently for last 6 months?

[hutennis]

Huuuuutennis is talking theorotical. My opinion is based on experience I had since April. Road to ruin? Not even in close, only my pinnacle account was down the road to ruin, lol. Of course, I made nice profit overall and my overall bankroll increased but I feel like I left a fortune on table by covering my bets at Pinnacle.

Another thing I observed is, this case is not happening much in low surebets I made such as %1-1.50. But on high value surebets such as %4, it happens too often and betting the other side in Pinnacle is clearly, definetely a negative proposition.

You simply refuse to understand.

This is not about the way you feel, not about the way you interpret your personal experiences,
not about the way it seams to be. It is about number. Number that supersedes anything that you brain, gut or imagination can create. And it is very simple too.

If we are under assumption that risk of canceling is not an issue, then there are no more unknown factors.
You know limits, stakes, Kelly, win probability, odds, everything. You simply put it together in 2 elementary formulas, get 2 numbers and go with a higher one. Betting the other side on Pinnacle is only clearly and definitely a negative proposition if EV numbers say it is. Not b/c you feel like it is. And guess what, you know it ahead of time so you simply don't do it.

There is nothing theoretical about it. It is as practical as it gets. That's what engineers do. They don't argue with numbers b/c they may have some personal feelings about the problem they evaluate.
Iron clad numbers always win. Not to accept this simple notion is a pure insanity.
I don't even understand why anyone older than 10 years old needs to be convinced.

[Sawyer]

Except for mistakes or getting palped/cancelled, arbitrage has zero drawdown and continual guaranteed profit every time

That's true. Arbitrage means zero drawdown and continual guarenteed profit everytime.

What I'm saying here is, if the other side you bet is clearly the value side with a good value (in surebets with %4 or higher), your pinnacle bankroll decreases over long haul. (While other accounts increase of course) Therefore, if you have an obivious edge, covering other side in pinnacle is not necessary.

Only taking the +EV leg can make one quite wealthy, but also can easily lead one down the road to ruin, especially given it'll be an overmark on the dog's price, and we've all seen multiple 0s in a row in roulette or 20 red or black in a row

Don't compare apples with bananas. Roulette is a game of chance. Pinnacle oddsmakers are smart. If you're picking other side in another book with a good advantage, it means you're laying (betting against) other side even at a better price then Pinnacle.

Huuuuutennis is talking theorotical. My opinion is based on experience I had since April. Road to ruin? Not even in close, only my pinnacle account was down the road to ruin, lol. Of course, I made nice profit overall and my overall bankroll increased but I feel like I left a fortune on table by covering my bets at Pinnacle.

Another thing I observed is, this case is not happening much in low surebets I made such as %1-1.50. But on high value surebets such as %4, it happens too often and betting the other side in Pinnacle is clearly, definetely a negative proposition.

[chachi]

Except for mistakes or getting palped/cancelled, arbitrage has zero drawdown and continual guaranteed profit every time

Only taking the +EV leg can make one quite wealthy, but also can easily lead one down the road to ruin, especially given it'll be an overmark on the dog's price, and we've all seen multiple 0s in a row in roulette or 20 red or black in a row

edit what a ******* bullshit trivia question #3 on origin of the phrase "march madness"

[Riceboi]

Any US players do arbitrage? can you recommend the books you use for arbitrage since US players can't use pinnacle?

[muffins]

You are wrong.

His bet will always have Kelly limitations.
Arbitrage will not.





All this risk of canceling business question you should address to OP.
I'f fully aware of it and even pointed it out here.



Apparently, OP has no problem with that as he also indicated

Kelly limitations will not apply as book stake limits will occur first and/orthe portion of the bankroll you have at the particular book offering the surebet opportunity will be below the Kelly stake, the Kelly stake will be higher than the stake limit on the things you are surebetting (at the non Pinny books). His bets will not always have Kelly limitations, you will both have the same stake/deposited funds limit. Your bets at Pinny will have a -2.5% or more (for lesser vents) -EV. He will be better off.

You are both aware of the risk of cancelling, the difference is it costs you 2.5% of your Pinny stake. It costs him nothing simply a void bet. Your returns are lower.

To maximise your return on arbitrage you should have minimum 20 and up to 50 books, so that you can take opportunities as they arise. that means between 5% and as little as 2% of your funds at a book. You will also be betting minor leagues and markets a lot, therefore stake limits will be small and any larger stakes would get referred to traders and rejected anyway. Losing 2.5% of your stake at Pinny lowers your return. Spreading your bankroll over less books, so that you have a larger bankroll in each book and thus Kelly comes in to play (as the Kelly stake won't exceed your funds in that larger deposit case) lowers your return as you miss a lot of opportunities.

[sayhey69]

lol

[hutennis]

Without of course

[sayhey69]

Oh thats where 100K BR comes in.

Sure

Obviously, if your BR allows you that bet (as per Kelly) then do it.
I goes without saying.

with or without hedge?

[sayhey69]

Right.

So after I spend all this effort trying to explain why betting -120 without using an available hedging gift horse is a very dumb idea,
you are asking



I mean, common!

your whole argument for hedging was that you could risk more and make more ev. that doesnt apply here.

[hutennis]

Oh thats where 100K BR comes in.

Sure

Obviously, if your BR allows you that bet (as per Kelly) then do it.
I goes without saying.

[hutennis]

that is what this whole thread is about...

Right.

So after I spend all this effort trying to explain why betting -120 without using an available hedging gift horse is a very dumb idea,
you are asking

why not max it at -120 w/o hedge and make more ev?

I mean, common!

[sayhey69]

that is what this whole thread is about...

[hutennis]

Oh, I see.

We can bet whatever on pinny b/c it has very high limits and only 500 at book A.
So your question is how can we get the max out of it before it moves to useless -180/+120 at book A
Right?

no it cannot be right.
-120 is at book A.
So 500 is the max we can put on it.
And now you ask why we would not put 500on it without hedge.

Let me ask you then.
Did you read the thread?

[sayhey69]

since were stuck in the world of hypotheticals ill throw this one out. suppose we have a 100k roll. pinny is at -164/+140 and the book A is at -120/-110. limit is 500 and the line will move to -180/+120 after we bet it once at book A. how do we maximize ev? and how do you recommend betting this situation?

...

[hutennis]

why not max it at -120 w/o hedge and make more ev?

Where do you see -120? has not it moved to -180?

[sayhey69]

why not max it at -120 w/o hedge and make more ev?

[hutennis]

since were stuck in the world of hypotheticals ill throw this one out. suppose we have a 100k roll. pinny is at -164/+140 and the book A is at -120/-110. limit is 500 and the line will move to -180/+120 after we bet it once at book A. how do we maximize ev? and how do you recommend betting this situation?

After you took advantage of +140/-120 gift in a manner I specified above and line moved, what else do you see there that would indicate profitable opportunity? How can you maximize something that does not exists?
Why did you put 100k number there? what does it have to do with anything?

[sayhey69]

since were stuck in the world of hypotheticals ill throw this one out. suppose we have a 100k roll. pinny is at -164/+140 and the book A is at -120/-110. limit is 500 and the line will move to -180/+120 after we bet it once at book A. how do we maximize ev? and how do you recommend betting this situation?

[hutennis]

i'm leaning a bit towards hutennis here. my world is spinning .

The subject in this thread is probably least controversial and required the least amount of sophistication/knowledge/common sense I've ever participated in on this forum. Its not even close
to market efficiency, trading vs contract bets or anything like that.

It is really as simple as 5*5=25 and you are just "leaning a bit".
Well, I'm glad you do at least that much.
You are certainly leaning in a right direction.

You should also examine the reasons why you ever been not sure.
You answer that and then you are really on your way.

[Inspirited]

i'm leaning a bit towards hutennis here. my world is spinning .

[hutennis]

The amount of bankroll you can put on the non-pinny surebet book is the same as the amount that Sawyer can put on as you both would be putting your total balance at that book on.

You are wrong.

His bet will always have Kelly limitations.
Arbitrage will not.

im still trying to figure out which books will guarantee they wont cancel my off line bet. im not too comfortable putting ~50% of my roll on a -ev bet until i have that guarantee. can you name some books that do that?

You also run a very real risk of palpable error cancelling your wager, which Sawyer does not (if it is cancelled your EV is -2.5%, his is zero).

All this risk of canceling business question you should address to OP.
I'f fully aware of it and even pointed it out here.

The very good reason not to cover I see is that -125 bet with Pinnacle at -183 will be canceled as bad line 9 times out of ten or even more often leaving you with one side with -EV.

Apparently, OP has no problem with that as he also indicated

No, I had many arbitrage bets like -115, +135, -125/+147, -135/+150 but not cancelled.

If that's the case, then I'm absolutely right and he is absolutely wrong. End of story.

[muffins]

The other thing being ignored is the nature of surebet opportunities, they arise much more often on minor events/markets and therefore Kelly would rarely come in to play as the amounts that you can get on are very limited in any case. Kelly would only come in to play if you're operating a very small bank and in that case arbitrage is a very low return for a lot of work.

[sayhey69]

im still trying to figure out which books will guarantee they wont cancel my off line bet. im not too comfortable putting ~50% of my roll on a -ev bet until i have that guarantee. can you name some books that do that?

[muffins]

With sure bet -120/+140 we don't have BR management considerations since we can't lose, and thus can put all our money at work.

The amount of bankroll you can put on the non-pinny surebet book is the same as the amount that Sawyer can put on as you both would be putting your total balance at that book on. Your bankroll will have to be split across a large number of books to take advantage of surebet opportunities in a timely manner. You would empty the balance at that book, which would be lucky to be 5% of your total bankroll (and less for you than Sawyer as part of your bankroll is at Pinny).

You also run a very real risk of palpable error cancelling your wager, which Sawyer does not (if it is cancelled your EV is -2.5%, his is zero).

[u21c3f6]

Sawyer, Do you agree that one can use their whole bankroll on a sure thing arbitrage but can only wager a small fraction of their bankroll on the +EV side only?

Joe.

[hutennis]

I can't understand why Hutennis is so agressive. He acts like a troll, lol. "Ignore" button is very useful against trolls.

I had an interesting experience with my arbitrage/surebets between other books and pinnacle and wanted to share it. Well, if you don't want to cover your bet at Pinnacle, it's up to you. But over long haul, you may left a fortune on the table. Yes, your overall bankroll will grow no problem but why not maximize your profits? While withdrawing money from other books, you reload your pinnacle account over and over again. I lived this. My this idea is based on my experiences. Not talking about theories here..

Surebet is a great way to win money but if the odds you're betting are "value bets", you will make money anyway.

Regards,

Sawyer

This is amazing.

Where am I being aggressive? Why am I "trolling"? What the hell is wrong with you?
If anything I'm very helpful.

I just gave you an iron clad, mathematical prove that your understanding of what ever is that you "lived through" is completely erroneous.
I thoroughly explained you why and how it works.
I basically gave you a blueprint for making way more money than you currently making with great opportunities that you say you are able to find on a consistent basis.

Did you even read my post with EV calculations?
If yes, how can you say what you are saying?
Who is leaving money on the table?
Do you still don't understand that you reload your pinny account not with your but with somebody else's money?

God, books have it tooooooo easy!!!!!

[Sawyer]

I can't understand why Hutennis is so agressive. He acts like a troll, lol. "Ignore" button is very useful against trolls.

I had an interesting experience with my arbitrage/surebets between other books and pinnacle and wanted to share it. Well, if you don't want to cover your bet at Pinnacle, it's up to you. But over long haul, you may left a fortune on the table. Yes, your overall bankroll will grow no problem but why not maximize your profits? While withdrawing money from other books, you reload your pinnacle account over and over again. I lived this. My this idea is based on my experiences. Not talking about theories here..

Surebet is a great way to win money but if the odds you're betting are "value bets", you will make money anyway.

Regards,

Sawyer

[hutennis]

Some people really lack of mathematical knowledge here. Let me tell again.

But I don't expect you to understand because I can see you don't have any real experience about this subject.

Please, only speak if you're making arbitrage bets for long time. Don't want to discuss it with people who don't have any idea about it.

That's correct

Some people do really lack lack of mathematical knowledge here and this knowledge is on such a basic level it is scarry.

And I do agree, breath should not be held expecting them to ever understand this basic stuff.

Some of them are ignorant and condescending at the same time which is kind of funny.

[hutennis]

why give pinny part of your winnings?

Exactly. That's what I'm talking about. Bingo!

I believe I have explained thoroughly why this, along with whole OP, is borderline idiotic and exhibits the complete cluelessness about
cornerstone concepts of sports betting.

As far as this

where can i find free and instantaneous book to book transfers and the guarantee that my bet on the non-pinny book wont be cancelled?

I'm sure this is not a problem at all for OP who live in UK.
That makes his all revelations even more head scratching.

BTW, what sounds good?
This?

Please, before you start jumping on that "trolling" bandwagon, make sure that you yourself are qualified to determine what is or is not
"thread worthy" and that your understanding of EV concept is worthy of anything at all.

[sayhey69]

sounds good. where can i find free and instantaneous book to book transfers and the guarantee that my bet on the non-pinny book wont be cancelled?

[hutennis]

cant tell if youre trolling or not and cant believe this is even considered thread worthy. 1 bet is +ev, 1 bet is -ev. why would you make the -ev bet?

OK. Let's talk about EV.

Let's take it from OP -164/+140 with -120 available elsewhere.

Since -120, although having a great value is still not a sure bet and can lose, proper BR management is in order.
For that we use Kelly and according to most agressive full Kelly we need to win our full edge.

Our edge is 10% so with 1000 BR the max bet we can place is 120 to win 100.
Our EV in $$ would be (100*60%) - (120*40%) = $12

With sure bet -120/+140 we don't have BR management considerations since we can't lose, and thus can put all our money at work.
That would be putting 540 at -120 and 450 at +140

Now our EV in $$ will be (90 * 40%) - (0 * 60%) = $36

So, although single bet EV is larger than arbitrage, the fact that we can apply smaller +EV to much larger amounts
gives us 3 times more cash.

Please, before you start jumping on that "trolling" bandwagon, make sure that you yourself are qualified to determine what is or is not
"thread worthy" and that your understanding of EV concept is worthy of anything at all.

[Sawyer]

Oh boy.
The very good reason not to cover I see is that -125 bet with Pinnacle at -183 will be canceled as bad line 9 times out of ten or even more often leaving you with one side with -EV.

No, I had many arbitrage bets like -115, +135, -125/+147, -135/+150 but not cancelled.

[hutennis]

It's a real situation. I have all betting tickets as proof if you're interested. Just shoot me your mail.



The real embarrassing thing is to tell you this 4th time.

LoL. Of course you never lose two. While losing money at one bookie (Pinnacle), you win on other bookie so your overall profit increases. But you can maixmize your profits by not covering other side at Pinnacle.

Your overall balance growth steadily with no drawdowns at all. Yes..but you can increase your profits by not covering other side at Pinnacle.

Oh boy.

The very good reason not to cover I see is that -125 bet with Pinnacle at -183 will be canceled as bad line 9 times out of ten or even more often leaving you with one side with -EV.