Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at Pinnacle..

[Sawyer]

cant tell if youre trolling or not and cant believe this is even considered thread worthy. 1 bet is +ev, 1 bet is -ev. why would you make the -ev bet?

Bingo!

Because he don't care since our overall balance growth steadily with no drawdowns at all. He is not interested in maximizing/increasing profits

[hutennis]

Example #2

Let me show another example, I hope you understand this time.

Side-A listed -183 (1.546) at Pinnacle.
Side-B listed +155 (2.55) at Pinnacle.

We find Side-A at -125 (1.800) in another book.

Is this real find or just for the sake of a argument?

[Sawyer]

Where are you getting such a ridiculously large difference?
Are you building you argument on a fantastic hypothetical that is simply unavailable in a real life?
Can we talk some real situations?

It's a real situation. I got all betting tickets in my betting history.

Common. That's not even funny.
When you make risk free arbitrage you don't consider your sides separately.
You count them together. And when you count them together you either break even or win.
You never lose tho. Your balances may go out of order but you don't lose money.
All you need to restore the order is to take money from "winning" account and put it in a "losing" one thus restoring the balance.
Your overall balance growth steadily with no drawdowns at all.
I feel funny even explaining you that. It is almost embarrassing.

The real embarrassing thing is to tell you this 4th time.

LoL. Of course you never lose two. While losing money at one bookie (Pinnacle), you win on other bookie so your overall profit increases. But you can maixmize your profits by not covering other side at Pinnacle.

Your overall balance growth steadily with no drawdowns at all. Yes..but you can increase your profits by not covering other side at Pinnacle.

[sayhey69]

cant tell if youre trolling or not and cant believe this is even considered thread worthy. 1 bet is +ev, 1 bet is -ev. why would you make the -ev bet?

[hutennis]

why give pinny part of your winnings?

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It is almost painful!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


You REALLY don't understand or just kidding?
Tell me you are kidding, please!

[Sawyer]

why give pinny part of your winnings?

Exactly. That's what I'm talking about. Bingo!

[Sawyer]

Example #2

Let me show another example, I hope you understand this time.

Side-A listed -183 (1.546) at Pinnacle.
Side-B listed +155 (2.55) at Pinnacle.

We find Side-A at -125 (1.800) in another book.

It's a %5.52 surebet. You can cover both sides and enjoy %5.52 surebet.

I say betting other side at Pinnacle is not necessary.

Why? Because our balance will be negative in Pinnacle.

We're betting -125. (Using -125 as example for all bets in order to calculate easier)

A %63 win rate in other book means a %37 lost percentage in Pinnacle.

%37 x 2.55 = Losing money at pinnacle
1.80 x 63 = 115.2 Winning money in other bookie

Very simple.

I'm saying, when making a surebet/arbitrage, why cover the other side at Pinnacle?

[sayhey69]

why give pinny part of your winnings?

[hutennis]

Some people really lack of mathematical knowledge here. Let me tell again.

But I don't expect you to understand because I can see you don't have any real experience about this subject.

I say I have proof and you're still talking, lol.

Math Lesson #1

Let's say X bet is listed -200 at Pinnacle. If you're picking this at -125, you will make money over long haul. However, while winning at one book, you will lose on another bookie, pinnacle. Therefore, if you're sure you're betting clearly a value side on another bookie, making an arbitrage is waste of money.

I said I have proof. I lived it. Since April, I loaded other bookie accounts only once, when making first deposit. However, I reloaded my pinnacle account many many times since while I was winning one side in other bookie, I was losing at Pinnacle.

Second, it's not very kind to call something "stupid" because you don't agree with it. A very rude behaviour, not very polite really..

First, I did not call you stupid. That would not be nice.
I called your argument stupid because it deserves it.
There is a difference there.

Now to your point.

So now it's -200 on pinny and -125 at another book.
Nice! why not make it -200 +150? That would be even better case for you.
Where are you getting such a ridiculously large difference?
Are you building you argument on a fantastic hypothetical that is simply unavailable in a real life?
Can we talk some real situations?

Since April, I loaded other bookie accounts only once, when making first deposit. However, I reloaded my pinnacle account many many times since while I was winning one side in other bookie, I was losing at Pinnacle.

Common. That's not even funny.
When you make risk free arbitrage you don't consider your sides separately.
You count them together. And when you count them together you either break even or win.
You never lose tho. Your balances may go out of order but you don't lose money.
All you need to restore the order is to take money from "winning" account and put it in a "losing" one thus restoring the balance.
Your overall balance growth steadily with no drawdowns at all.
I feel funny even explaining you that. It is almost embarrassing.

[Sawyer]

Some people really lack of mathematical knowledge here. Let me tell again.

But I don't expect you to understand because I can see you don't have any real experience about this subject.

Please, only speak if you're making arbitrage bets for long time. Don't want to discuss it with people who don't have any idea about it.

Example

Let's say X bet is listed -200 at Pinnacle. If you're picking this at -125, you will make money over long haul. However, while winning at one book, you will lose on another bookie, pinnacle. Therefore, if you know you're betting clearly a value side on another bookie, betting other side at Pinnacle for arbitrage is waste of money.

I said I have a proof. I lived it. Since April, I loaded other bookie accounts only once, when making first deposit. However, I reloaded my pinnacle account many many times since while I was winning one side in other bookie, I was losing at Pinnacle.

Second, it's not very kind to call something "stupid" because you don't agree with it. A very rude behaviour, not very polite really..

[hutennis]

Do you have the proof? I have. I don't think you're making arbitrage bets between a square book and pinnacle, otherwise you would understand me. %99 of arbitrage/surebet players are complaining about same thing. Their balance in other books increase while they're losing money at Pinnacle. I had to deposit my Pinnacle account twice this month.

Look.
If you would say something like:
"Hey people! Don't miss the forest behind the trees. Taking -120 has a larger EV by itself than arbitraging -120/+140."

then I would understand the argument although there is still enough to say about benefits of a risk free proposition from a stand point of BR management.

But your point is a ridiculous one about "losing money on Pinnacle", "draining BR slowly", "winning 15k instead of 5k" like it is somehow a guaranteed outcome and some other nonsense like that.

It is amazingly stupid.

[u21c3f6]

Unless your wagers are at the max allowed, your example has one betting the same amount on a sure thing as one would would bet on somethng that may have on average a 50% chance of winning. If max wagers are not a problem, you are almost always better off arbitraging from a bankroll point of view.

Joe.

[muffins]

Reasonable proposition, Pinnacle drives the market price on a lot of sports and is arguably (provably?) the most efficient price so all you are doing when surebetting with Pinnacle is betting with another book that has been slow to move its price to the most current/most efficient price (assuming efficiency increases as we get closer to closing time/price).

I would agree that if the only reason you bet a Pinny price is because another book had a surebet price then you will lose in the long-run at Pinny at around the 2.5% of their over-round.

[Sawyer]

This makes so little sense that I don't even know where to begin with it.

I'm really leaning toward considering it some kind of joke or maybe a level, couse anyone with anything remotely close
to a reasonable intelligence simply can not come up with such an idiotic idea.

Do you have the proof? I have. I don't think you're making arbitrage bets between a square book and pinnacle, otherwise you would understand me. %99 of arbitrage/surebet players are complaining about same thing. Their balance in other books increase while they're losing money at Pinnacle. I had to deposit my Pinnacle account twice this month.

[hutennis]

Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at pinnacle..

Why?

Because the side you bet on Pinnacle will usually lose and your Pinnacle bankroll will decrease slowly.

Let's say odds are like this at Pinnacle,

Jack to win -164
Mike to win +140

You find "Jack to win" bet at -120 in another bookie.

Now, you can bet both sides and make a surebet (arbitrage) and guarantee the profit with zero risk. However, this is waste of money, why?

Because, the value bet is on other bookie. The bet you placed at Pinnacle is not a value bet. Time to time, you will have winning streaks in Pinnacle but over the long haul, you will lose more often and bets you lost at Pinnacle will drain your bankroll slowly..

At the end of the month,

You will have a situation like this:

Oh, very nice I made 5k net profit this month.

Total Money Won from other books: +15k
Total Money Lost (and deposited) at Pinnacle: -10k

Let me ask you. What if you didn't placed any wager at Pinnacle in order to cover other side?

You would be +15,000 up.

BECAUSE PINNACLE LINES ARE SHARPER!

This makes so little sense that I don't even know where to begin with it.

I'm really leaning toward considering it some kind of joke or maybe a level, couse anyone with anything remotely close
to a reasonable intelligence simply can not come up with such an idiotic idea.

[zorba74]

Are you aware of any "robot software" that allows one to search for middles and automatically bet them?

I hear they exist (guys hire programmers) but they obviously aren't advertised. Also, don't sportsbooks have countermeasures for this?

Please let me know if you can shed any light on the subject.

Thanks.

[Sawyer]

Arbitrage/Surebet is waste of money if you're betting the other side at pinnacle..

Why?

Because the side you bet on Pinnacle will usually lose and your Pinnacle bankroll will decrease slowly.

Let's say odds are like this at Pinnacle,

Jack to win -164
Mike to win +140

You find "Jack to win" bet at -120 in another bookie.

Now, you can bet both sides and make a surebet (arbitrage) and guarantee the profit with zero risk. However, this is waste of money, why?

Because, the value bet is on other bookie. The bet you placed at Pinnacle is not a value bet. Time to time, you will have winning streaks in Pinnacle but over the long haul, you will lose more often and bets you lost at Pinnacle will drain your bankroll slowly..

At the end of the month,

You will have a situation like this:

Oh, very nice I made 5k net profit this month.

Total Money Won from other books: +15k
Total Money Lost (and deposited) at Pinnacle: -10k

Let me ask you. What if you didn't placed any wager at Pinnacle in order to cover other side?

You would be +15,000 up.

BECAUSE PINNACLE LINES ARE SHARPER!