NCAAF 2011 Week 6
Play #1
Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)
Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)
Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)
Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #4
Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)
Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.
Play #5
Georgia/Tenn over (55) 1x (Locked)
Georgia has a great defense, but they are playing at Tennessee and I expect this one to be a shootout. The only way Tenn wins is through the air with Bray. That is their best weapon and I expect Dooley to let him loose today. Georgia has the ability to put up 30 as well and I think this one ends up being one of the higher scoring SEC games this year. The advanced stats love these offenses and I have this one all the way up at 62. However, because I have respect for the athleticism of both defenses, I can't take this one for multiple units but I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #6
LouTech/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)
We are getting a solid number which is under key totals number of 58 and 59. I have this game at 60 and expect the quick pace of these offenses to excel on the fast track of the Kibbie Dome. There's not much we need to say about this one as it's a simple formuala with solid second tier offenses against weak defenses. Because the offenses will play a quick pace, I expect a lot possessions and ultimately a lot of points. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #7
Troy/LouLaf over (57) 1x (Locked)
Definitely no time from writeups as I have a LOT of work to do today before the games start, but I will say that even though we missed out on the key number of 55, we are getting this below the key numbers of 58 and 59 and I have this one 64, so like the value on the over and I'm going to take it for 1x. Good luck.
Play #8
North Carolina (-13.5) 1x (Locked)
I would also take -14 but no higher. The advanced stats love the tar heels and do not like the cardinals. I have this one set at -20 and even once you dig deeper most situational angles also favor NC. I worry that NC might look ahead to Miami next week, but I trust that their athletic superiority over Louisville will be enough. I hate laying so much chalk, but I have to roll with my model on this one and take NC for 1x. Good luck.
Play #9
Oklahoma/Texas under (56) 1x (Locked)
I have this one at 52, so we are getting more than a FG of value in this big rivalry game. Plus, at 56, we get coverage from all the key totals numbers in the 40's as well as 55. I worry a bit about being below 58 and 59, but I don't think this game gets that high as I expect more of defensive struggle that ends with both teams scoring in the 20's. We all know how great OU's offense is and have made some money off them by betting overs. However, in this game, I have to roll with the under. We have two top 10 defenses in S&P+ efficiency rankings and even though OU has a great offense, I'm not so sure they will roll right over a young and athletic Longhorn defense. We all know this is a rivalry game and the only way Texas wins is by playing great defense with a ball control slow tempo offense. If they can keep the ball away from OU, they can win and that is how I expect Mack Brown to gameplan today. Most bets are on the over, but the line movement leans under and so do I. I'm going to take a shot here on the under for 1x.
Play #10
Boston College/Clemson under (52) 1x (Locked)
I debated whether taking this one after it moved down from 53, but I still have coverage over the key number of 51 and I think if this one goes over, it's going to be over 54. I have this at 48.5 so we have nice value. Bottom line is the BC is an under machine with a weak offense but solid defense. Clemson has an exciting team, but I still think they lack some offensive consistency and generally do not score into the 40's. I expect both defenses to limit the touchdowns, force some punts and both teams end up playing ball control offense. Both defenses should dominate here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #1
Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)
Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)
Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)
Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #4
Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)
Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.
Play #5
Georgia/Tenn over (55) 1x (Locked)
Georgia has a great defense, but they are playing at Tennessee and I expect this one to be a shootout. The only way Tenn wins is through the air with Bray. That is their best weapon and I expect Dooley to let him loose today. Georgia has the ability to put up 30 as well and I think this one ends up being one of the higher scoring SEC games this year. The advanced stats love these offenses and I have this one all the way up at 62. However, because I have respect for the athleticism of both defenses, I can't take this one for multiple units but I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #6
LouTech/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)
We are getting a solid number which is under key totals number of 58 and 59. I have this game at 60 and expect the quick pace of these offenses to excel on the fast track of the Kibbie Dome. There's not much we need to say about this one as it's a simple formuala with solid second tier offenses against weak defenses. Because the offenses will play a quick pace, I expect a lot possessions and ultimately a lot of points. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #7
Troy/LouLaf over (57) 1x (Locked)
Definitely no time from writeups as I have a LOT of work to do today before the games start, but I will say that even though we missed out on the key number of 55, we are getting this below the key numbers of 58 and 59 and I have this one 64, so like the value on the over and I'm going to take it for 1x. Good luck.
Play #8
North Carolina (-13.5) 1x (Locked)
I would also take -14 but no higher. The advanced stats love the tar heels and do not like the cardinals. I have this one set at -20 and even once you dig deeper most situational angles also favor NC. I worry that NC might look ahead to Miami next week, but I trust that their athletic superiority over Louisville will be enough. I hate laying so much chalk, but I have to roll with my model on this one and take NC for 1x. Good luck.
Play #9
Oklahoma/Texas under (56) 1x (Locked)
I have this one at 52, so we are getting more than a FG of value in this big rivalry game. Plus, at 56, we get coverage from all the key totals numbers in the 40's as well as 55. I worry a bit about being below 58 and 59, but I don't think this game gets that high as I expect more of defensive struggle that ends with both teams scoring in the 20's. We all know how great OU's offense is and have made some money off them by betting overs. However, in this game, I have to roll with the under. We have two top 10 defenses in S&P+ efficiency rankings and even though OU has a great offense, I'm not so sure they will roll right over a young and athletic Longhorn defense. We all know this is a rivalry game and the only way Texas wins is by playing great defense with a ball control slow tempo offense. If they can keep the ball away from OU, they can win and that is how I expect Mack Brown to gameplan today. Most bets are on the over, but the line movement leans under and so do I. I'm going to take a shot here on the under for 1x.
Play #10
Boston College/Clemson under (52) 1x (Locked)
I debated whether taking this one after it moved down from 53, but I still have coverage over the key number of 51 and I think if this one goes over, it's going to be over 54. I have this at 48.5 so we have nice value. Bottom line is the BC is an under machine with a weak offense but solid defense. Clemson has an exciting team, but I still think they lack some offensive consistency and generally do not score into the 40's. I expect both defenses to limit the touchdowns, force some punts and both teams end up playing ball control offense. Both defenses should dominate here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
LSU (-14) 1x (Locked)
I was contemplating playing LSU before the qb news came out of the Florida camp and that only cinched the deal. In addition, watching some of this OU/Texas game, really highlighted what a great defense can do to a young qb or young qb rotation. Different looks and blitzes cause big problems for young qb's and LSU can throw the kitchen sink at you from the defensive side. Only Alabama and Boise have a better overall S&P+ defensive efficiency rating and I expect this defense to dominate this Florida offense, just like Alabama did against that same team. Alabama dominated with Florida's top guy in there, LSU will have the benefit of facing at best Florida's number two guy and probably their number three guy. With this game being at LSU, I just don't see Florida starting out well enough to quiet the crow and keep LSU on their heels. As SK mentioned, this has blowout written all over it and I"m rolling with LSU for 1x. Good luck.
