LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

Going back to basics and going to have a lot of totals plays this weekend and the card in general will be the biggest of the season...good luck!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)

Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)

Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia/Tenn over (55) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

LouTech/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

I will be making picks throughout the day and will circle back later with some writeups if I have time. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Tailing them all my man! Keep'em coming

[Redscot]

LTA, wondering if you have capped the Wake game? My local sitting on 50, 2 1/2 below Pinny atm.

[SilverTongueFox]

LTA - I graduated from UGA and I've had season tickets for 13yrs. This is my team. That said, do you think the Dawgs roll into Neyland Saturday night and get a win.
There are two really good storylines in this game:
1) 10 year anniversary of the "hobnail boot." Greene to Haynes - playcall P44. It was Richt's first year and first big road win. It was a program changing type win.
2) Richt going for win #100

This game is not getting much love nationally, and understood, but it's a huge game and bigtime implications on the SEC East race.

Here is my game prediction:
This game really comes down to Vols offense vs Dawgs defense. Vols defense is simply outmatched in my mind. They have an under sized DL and very young LBs. FYI, Dawgs have the biggest offensive line in all of football (NCAA and NFL). I like both QBs in this game, and would probably give a slight edge to Bray bc he's playing at home. However, Vols have no running game and will be one dimensional in this game. Because the Dawgs will have success stopping whatever run game the Vols bring with its front 4, it should allow the Dawgs to be multiple in their pressures and coverages. The Dawgs have to get pressure. If they drop 6,7 guys in coverage without pressuring Bray, they will get picked apart up and down the field. The SEC is a hard league to win in when you are one dimensional and dont play very good defense. I expect the Vols to start fast on emotion and the Dawgs could struggle early in a hostile environment. But with a steady run game, the Dawgs should find a good balance and keep pace in the early stages of this game. It'll be a battle and will be decided in the 2nd half and despite the crowd at Neyland, Dawgs get more defensive stops that Vols and pull away. Prediction: Dawgs 38, Vols 20

[Love The Action]

LTA, wondering if you have capped the Wake game? My local sitting on 50, 2 1/2 below Pinny atm.

Total looks pretty accurate...small lean to the noles covering....good luck!

[streakyrocket22]

LTA, How confident are you on tonight's OVER after last nights screw job by CAL. Im leaning on the OVER tonight but have the fear that Boise pulls the starters after 3 qtrs?

[Love The Action]

LTA - I graduated from UGA and I've had season tickets for 13yrs. This is my team. That said, do you think the Dawgs roll into Neyland Saturday night and get a win.
There are two really good storylines in this game:
1) 10 year anniversary of the "hobnail boot." Greene to Haynes - playcall P44. It was Richt's first year and first big road win. It was a program changing type win.
2) Richt going for win #100

This game is not getting much love nationally, and understood, but it's a huge game and bigtime implications on the SEC East race.

Here is my game prediction:
This game really comes down to Vols offense vs Dawgs defense. Vols defense is simply outmatched in my mind. They have an under sized DL and very young LBs. FYI, Dawgs have the biggest offensive line in all of football (NCAA and NFL). I like both QBs in this game, and would probably give a slight edge to Bray bc he's playing at home. However, Vols have no running game and will be one dimensional in this game. Because the Dawgs will have success stopping whatever run game the Vols bring with its front 4, it should allow the Dawgs to be multiple in their pressures and coverages. The Dawgs have to get pressure. If they drop 6,7 guys in coverage without pressuring Bray, they will get picked apart up and down the field. The SEC is a hard league to win in when you are one dimensional and dont play very good defense. I expect the Vols to start fast on emotion and the Dawgs could struggle early in a hostile environment. But with a steady run game, the Dawgs should find a good balance and keep pace in the early stages of this game. It'll be a battle and will be decided in the 2nd half and despite the crowd at Neyland, Dawgs get more defensive stops that Vols and pull away. Prediction: Dawgs 38, Vols 20

Great writeup and info...thanks!

My model gives this one to Tenn by a few points, but that is based on stats alone. Sounds like you have uncovered some intersting situational angles. While I really like the over and expect some offense, I cant say that I have a strong opinion on the side. However, I will consider georgia more closely thanks to you. Appreciate the info...good luck to your dawgs....i hope they score 60 all on their own!

[Love The Action]

LTA, How confident are you on tonight's OVER after last nights screw job by CAL. Im leaning on the OVER tonight but have the fear that Boise pulls the starters after 3 qtrs?

Very confident! Last nights game has no bearing on tonights game. Unless Boise is up by 40, they aren't pulling anyone, but even if they are fresno will keep trying to score. Forget about last night...its friday!

[Redscot]

At some point we gonna need Fresno to join the party here....so far so good though

[streakyrocket22]

I dont understand why Fresno continues to run the play on 1st and 2nd down, when first of all its not getting them any yardage setting up a 3rd and long, and secondly when their now down by 30! Unbelievable!

[Love The Action]

At some point we gonna need Fresno to join the party here....so far so good though

If we can get one more TD from either team before half, we would just need three td's and a fg in the 2h. Figure Moore will play the third quarter at least and he's good for a couple td's. If we can get at least ten points from Fresno in the 2h, we might just be ok.

[Dexter]

unlucky last night, lucky tonight.....too bad i only had 1u on this win

[streakyrocket22]

Cash it LTA!

[tarheels2211]

LTA if you were going to add one over/under play to a parlay which game would it be....the one your most confident in....thanks appreciate your hard work bro

[Redscot]

When you're good and get a little luck, that's a dangerous combination! TD with 17 seconds left , A sign of good things to come this weekend!

[Love The Action]

unlucky last night, lucky tonight.....too bad i only had 1u on this win

Yeah...that Oregon over hurts, but I'll take this one. I fell asleep around halftime and missed all the MLB action and this game. Ended up being a solid night.

Let's have a big Saturday Dex...good luck

[Love The Action]

LTA if you were going to add one over/under play to a parlay which game would it be....the one your most confident in....thanks appreciate your hard work bro

I would have told you to parlay one of my MLB unders from last night because both of those were multiple unit plays. I can't really answer your question because all of my plays that are made so far are rated the same...1x. If I like a play more than another, I will assign a larger stake. For example, I really like that Eagles/Bills over on Sunday, so I am playing that one for 1.5x. However, I like that one at 49 and it's already up to 50.5 and I would not like it that much at that higher number.

Sorry bud, I'm not a big parlay guy. Good luck though

[Love The Action]

When you're good and get a little luck, that's a dangerous combination! TD with 17 seconds left , A sign of good things to come this weekend!

Yeah, no kidding. It's about time we get a little luck Red...I believe we certainly deserve it after some of the bad beats we have suffered

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)

Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)

Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia/Tenn over (55) 1x (Locked)

Georgia has a great defense, but they are playing at Tennessee and I expect this one to be a shootout. The only way Tenn wins is through the air with Bray. That is their best weapon and I expect Dooley to let him loose today. Georgia has the ability to put up 30 as well and I think this one ends up being one of the higher scoring SEC games this year. The advanced stats love these offenses and I have this one all the way up at 62. However, because I have respect for the athleticism of both defenses, I can't take this one for multiple units but I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

LouTech/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

We are getting a solid number which is under key totals number of 58 and 59. I have this game at 60 and expect the quick pace of these offenses to excel on the fast track of the Kibbie Dome. There's not much we need to say about this one as it's a simple formuala with solid second tier offenses against weak defenses. Because the offenses will play a quick pace, I expect a lot possessions and ultimately a lot of points. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Troy/LouLaf over (57) 1x (Locked)

Definitely no time from writeups as I have a LOT of work to do today before the games start, but I will say that even though we missed out on the key number of 55, we are getting this below the key numbers of 58 and 59 and I have this one 64, so like the value on the over and I'm going to take it for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)

Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)

Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia/Tenn over (55) 1x (Locked)

Georgia has a great defense, but they are playing at Tennessee and I expect this one to be a shootout. The only way Tenn wins is through the air with Bray. That is their best weapon and I expect Dooley to let him loose today. Georgia has the ability to put up 30 as well and I think this one ends up being one of the higher scoring SEC games this year. The advanced stats love these offenses and I have this one all the way up at 62. However, because I have respect for the athleticism of both defenses, I can't take this one for multiple units but I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

LouTech/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

We are getting a solid number which is under key totals number of 58 and 59. I have this game at 60 and expect the quick pace of these offenses to excel on the fast track of the Kibbie Dome. There's not much we need to say about this one as it's a simple formuala with solid second tier offenses against weak defenses. Because the offenses will play a quick pace, I expect a lot possessions and ultimately a lot of points. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #7

Troy/LouLaf over (57) 1x (Locked)

Definitely no time from writeups as I have a LOT of work to do today before the games start, but I will say that even though we missed out on the key number of 55, we are getting this below the key numbers of 58 and 59 and I have this one 64, so like the value on the over and I'm going to take it for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-13.5) 1x (Locked)

I would also take -14 but no higher. The advanced stats love the tar heels and do not like the cardinals. I have this one set at -20 and even once you dig deeper most situational angles also favor NC. I worry that NC might look ahead to Miami next week, but I trust that their athletic superiority over Louisville will be enough. I hate laying so much chalk, but I have to roll with my model on this one and take NC for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)

Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)

Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia/Tenn over (55) 1x (Locked)

Georgia has a great defense, but they are playing at Tennessee and I expect this one to be a shootout. The only way Tenn wins is through the air with Bray. That is their best weapon and I expect Dooley to let him loose today. Georgia has the ability to put up 30 as well and I think this one ends up being one of the higher scoring SEC games this year. The advanced stats love these offenses and I have this one all the way up at 62. However, because I have respect for the athleticism of both defenses, I can't take this one for multiple units but I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

LouTech/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

We are getting a solid number which is under key totals number of 58 and 59. I have this game at 60 and expect the quick pace of these offenses to excel on the fast track of the Kibbie Dome. There's not much we need to say about this one as it's a simple formuala with solid second tier offenses against weak defenses. Because the offenses will play a quick pace, I expect a lot possessions and ultimately a lot of points. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Troy/LouLaf over (57) 1x (Locked)

Definitely no time from writeups as I have a LOT of work to do today before the games start, but I will say that even though we missed out on the key number of 55, we are getting this below the key numbers of 58 and 59 and I have this one 64, so like the value on the over and I'm going to take it for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-13.5) 1x (Locked)

I would also take -14 but no higher. The advanced stats love the tar heels and do not like the cardinals. I have this one set at -20 and even once you dig deeper most situational angles also favor NC. I worry that NC might look ahead to Miami next week, but I trust that their athletic superiority over Louisville will be enough. I hate laying so much chalk, but I have to roll with my model on this one and take NC for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Oklahoma/Texas under (56) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 52, so we are getting more than a FG of value in this big rivalry game. Plus, at 56, we get coverage from all the key totals numbers in the 40's as well as 55. I worry a bit about being below 58 and 59, but I don't think this game gets that high as I expect more of defensive struggle that ends with both teams scoring in the 20's. We all know how great OU's offense is and have made some money off them by betting overs. However, in this game, I have to roll with the under. We have two top 10 defenses in S&P+ efficiency rankings and even though OU has a great offense, I'm not so sure they will roll right over a young and athletic Longhorn defense. We all know this is a rivalry game and the only way Texas wins is by playing great defense with a ball control slow tempo offense. If they can keep the ball away from OU, they can win and that is how I expect Mack Brown to gameplan today. Most bets are on the over, but the line movement leans under and so do I. I'm going to take a shot here on the under for 1x.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)

Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)

Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia/Tenn over (55) 1x (Locked)

Georgia has a great defense, but they are playing at Tennessee and I expect this one to be a shootout. The only way Tenn wins is through the air with Bray. That is their best weapon and I expect Dooley to let him loose today. Georgia has the ability to put up 30 as well and I think this one ends up being one of the higher scoring SEC games this year. The advanced stats love these offenses and I have this one all the way up at 62. However, because I have respect for the athleticism of both defenses, I can't take this one for multiple units but I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

LouTech/Idaho over (55) 1x (Locked)

We are getting a solid number which is under key totals number of 58 and 59. I have this game at 60 and expect the quick pace of these offenses to excel on the fast track of the Kibbie Dome. There's not much we need to say about this one as it's a simple formuala with solid second tier offenses against weak defenses. Because the offenses will play a quick pace, I expect a lot possessions and ultimately a lot of points. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Troy/LouLaf over (57) 1x (Locked)

Definitely no time from writeups as I have a LOT of work to do today before the games start, but I will say that even though we missed out on the key number of 55, we are getting this below the key numbers of 58 and 59 and I have this one 64, so like the value on the over and I'm going to take it for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-13.5) 1x (Locked)

I would also take -14 but no higher. The advanced stats love the tar heels and do not like the cardinals. I have this one set at -20 and even once you dig deeper most situational angles also favor NC. I worry that NC might look ahead to Miami next week, but I trust that their athletic superiority over Louisville will be enough. I hate laying so much chalk, but I have to roll with my model on this one and take NC for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Oklahoma/Texas under (56) 1x (Locked)

I have this one at 52, so we are getting more than a FG of value in this big rivalry game. Plus, at 56, we get coverage from all the key totals numbers in the 40's as well as 55. I worry a bit about being below 58 and 59, but I don't think this game gets that high as I expect more of defensive struggle that ends with both teams scoring in the 20's. We all know how great OU's offense is and have made some money off them by betting overs. However, in this game, I have to roll with the under. We have two top 10 defenses in S&P+ efficiency rankings and even though OU has a great offense, I'm not so sure they will roll right over a young and athletic Longhorn defense. We all know this is a rivalry game and the only way Texas wins is by playing great defense with a ball control slow tempo offense. If they can keep the ball away from OU, they can win and that is how I expect Mack Brown to gameplan today. Most bets are on the over, but the line movement leans under and so do I. I'm going to take a shot here on the under for 1x.

Play #10

Boston College/Clemson under (52) 1x (Locked)

I debated whether taking this one after it moved down from 53, but I still have coverage over the key number of 51 and I think if this one goes over, it's going to be over 54. I have this at 48.5 so we have nice value. Bottom line is the BC is an under machine with a weak offense but solid defense. Clemson has an exciting team, but I still think they lack some offensive consistency and generally do not score into the 40's. I expect both defenses to limit the touchdowns, force some punts and both teams end up playing ball control offense. Both defenses should dominate here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

What is the deal with the Florida St./Wake total...so much steam on the over. I didn't see anything crazy that would make you think over here...anyone know?

[Krazymojo]

whats the deal with ok/tx game and rice/mem eek

[BigBoi]

UAB/Miss +11 1/2 for UAB looks good in the second half.

[suicidekings]

Well, Texas is fukked... They completely abandoned their gameplan after the first OU TD. Ash is rattled and OU smells blood.

[Love The Action]

whats the deal with ok/tx game and rice/mem eek

OU/Texas was not looking bad -- 20-3 with four minutes left -- until McCoy threw a pick 6 and on the ensuing kickoff Texas returned it for a TD. That's 14 points -- or 1/4th of the whole total -- in about 6 seconds. Not much you can do when that happens...hard to cap a pick 6 and kickoff return b2b....

Will need some turnovers in the Rice game and get some quick scores. I've seen crazier happen, but it sure doesn't look good. Rice should have at least 3 td's by now.

[Love The Action]

Well, Texas is fukked... They completely abandoned their gameplan after the first OU TD. Ash is rattled and OU smells blood.

McCoy is really, really, really bad. I understand he is under pressure, but it doesn't look like he has the arm strength or accuracy to be a top flight qb...perhaps this guy is where he is on name only...

[Love The Action]

UAB/Miss +11 1/2 for UAB looks good in the second half.

The Miss/Uab under and the Uconn/West Virg under the two plays I left off the board in favor two others...

[suicidekings]

McCoy is really, really, really bad. I understand he is under pressure, but it doesn't look like he has the arm strength or accuracy to be a top flight qb...perhaps this guy is where he is on name only...

No, that was David Ash throwing both interceptions. He's running scared. McCoy has looked way better than Ash today.

[Love The Action]

OU/Texas was not looking bad -- 20-3 with four minutes left -- until McCoy threw a pick 6 and on the ensuing kickoff Texas returned it for a TD. That's 14 points -- or 1/4th of the whole total -- in about 6 seconds. Not much you can do when that happens...hard to cap a pick 6 and kickoff return b2b....

Will need some turnovers in the Rice game and get some quick scores. I've seen crazier happen, but it sure doesn't look good. Rice should have at least 3 td's by now.

And theres another fumble by McCoy for another OU TD. That's the fourth Texas turnover that resulted in 24 OU points. WTF...very disappointed in Texas. However, it's really primarily the Texas QB's fault (either McCoy or Ash). Every single turnover has been their fault via either fumbles or interceptions.

[Love The Action]

No, that was David Ash throwing both interceptions. He's running scared. McCoy has looked way better than Ash today.

Switching back and forth between games, plus watching the lines...assumed McCoy had been in there for most of the disaster. Thanks...still not happy about it though

[suicidekings]

Switching back and forth between games, plus watching the lines...assumed McCoy had been in there for most of the disaster. Thanks...still not happy about it though

What do you think about LSU/Florida? Driskell appears to be injured now so Florida is starting their 3rd string QB. Looks like a slaughter coming... I'm taking the LSU 1H -7

[Love The Action]

What do you think about LSU/Florida? Driskell appears to be injured now so Florida is starting their 3rd string QB. Looks like a slaughter coming... I'm taking the LSU 1H -7

Agreed...LSU or no play...line already shot up.