LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

agree with Clemson, think this gm is close and wouldnt be shocked to see clem get the W as not sure vtech can keep up..

totally disagree with any value at all on ucla at 21 or less, Stanford will physically dominate these clowns, little worried the biggest donkey on the site is loving the Trees but Stan just that team i dont care how "square" they are, i have been and will continue to ride this train, if they dont cover so be it, but damn sure wouldnt wanna be sitting there with a ucla ticket looking at a 41-10 score.

pretty much same for uk, doubt i play LSU with the morning start and easily huge letdown spot after waxing yet another quality team but how the hell is uk gonna score? even a unmotivated LSU d doesnt give up points to this group. only hope i can see is tigers not getting to 30...

Solid analysis as always BD...especially on Stanford...I think they roll as well.

Good luck bud

[BigDan]

Solid analysis as always BD...especially on Stanford...I think they roll as well.

Good luck bud

good to hear bro. ive been noticing the 1 gm we really agree strongly on has been money as of late in col and nfl. Stanford the ppls champ! burning "sharps" every week, not a money train im trying to get off just yet as i just dont see ucla being anywhere close at the end of this gm. Trees play with a serious chip trying to disprove they were a "product of Harbaugh", nothing like a super motivated team to trust to put their foots on lesser teams throats and cover what may appear to some as "big spreads".


I forget who originally asked about ucla but i would be extremely curious as to why he finds any value in this line at all for the Bruins? besides the old "laying big points against conf foe" thing. I mean yea at some point Stan gonna see a line they cant cover i just dont see how this is one of them. Im riding them as i have every gm all season till the wheels fall off.

[mp5070]

I am Ohio State to WIN BIG....Good Luck

[Love The Action]

I am Ohio State to WIN BIG....Good Luck

What is your reasoning? What makes you think osu runs away? Good luck to you as well.

[Dexter]

you're not on the over hou tonight? i want to add more but the total went up from my original #...

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 5

Play #1

Michigan State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Sparty in this Big Ten matchup. Now that some of the advanced stats are starting to take shape, it's pretty clear Michigan State is turning out to be the better team. Offensively, Michigan State is the better team with S&P+ offensive rankings which better Ohio State considerably. On the other side of the ball, both teams are comparable with Ohio State a little better S&P+ defensive ratings overall, but Michigan state bettering Ohio State in rushing S&P and passing S&P. As far as conventional stats, Michigan State as the better scoring offensive and scoring defense, the better rushing offense and defense and the number one passing defense to go with a much higher ranked passing offense. Finally, these important Big Ten games often come down to quarterback and I will take the experience of Cousins over the inexperience of the Ohio State QB rotation, especially Miller who will be starting now. Everything points to to Michigan State with an outright win, but I will take the 3.5 since I can get it. I suspect this one won't be above 3 at close. I'm rolling with the Michigan State. Good luck.

Play #2

Pittsburgh (+3) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Stanford (-20.5) 1x (Locked)

I originally leaned to south florida, but the more I looked at this matchup, the more I viewed these two teams as equals. I have this game as pick, so I will gladly take the points at home.

In the Stanford game, I expect the cardinals to roll. No need for a writeup, as the cardinal is superior in all three phases and should win this by at least 28 points. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 5

Play #1

Michigan State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Sparty in this Big Ten matchup. Now that some of the advanced stats are starting to take shape, it's pretty clear Michigan State is turning out to be the better team. Offensively, Michigan State is the better team with S&P+ offensive rankings which better Ohio State considerably. On the other side of the ball, both teams are comparable with Ohio State a little better S&P+ defensive ratings overall, but Michigan state bettering Ohio State in rushing S&P and passing S&P. As far as conventional stats, Michigan State as the better scoring offensive and scoring defense, the better rushing offense and defense and the number one passing defense to go with a much higher ranked passing offense. Finally, these important Big Ten games often come down to quarterback and I will take the experience of Cousins over the inexperience of the Ohio State QB rotation, especially Miller who will be starting now. Everything points to to Michigan State with an outright win, but I will take the 3.5 since I can get it. I suspect this one won't be above 3 at close. I'm rolling with the Michigan State. Good luck.

Play #2

Pittsburgh (+3) 1x (Locked)

I originally leaned to south florida, but the more I looked at this matchup, the more I viewed these two teams as equals. I have this game as pick, so I will gladly take the points at home.

Play #3

Stanford (-20.5) 1x (Locked)

In the Stanford game, I expect the cardinals to roll. No need for a writeup, as the cardinal is superior in all three phases and should win this by at least 28 points. Good luck.

Play #4

Northern IL (-8.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeup, but I expect the dominant huskie offense to roll. I set the huskies as -13 faves, so I see quite a bit of value here in spite of their weak d. Good luck

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 5

Play #1

Michigan State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Sparty in this Big Ten matchup. Now that some of the advanced stats are starting to take shape, it's pretty clear Michigan State is turning out to be the better team. Offensively, Michigan State is the better team with S&P+ offensive rankings which better Ohio State considerably. On the other side of the ball, both teams are comparable with Ohio State a little better S&P+ defensive ratings overall, but Michigan state bettering Ohio State in rushing S&P and passing S&P. As far as conventional stats, Michigan State as the better scoring offensive and scoring defense, the better rushing offense and defense and the number one passing defense to go with a much higher ranked passing offense. Finally, these important Big Ten games often come down to quarterback and I will take the experience of Cousins over the inexperience of the Ohio State QB rotation, especially Miller who will be starting now. Everything points to to Michigan State with an outright win, but I will take the 3.5 since I can get it. I suspect this one won't be above 3 at close. I'm rolling with the Michigan State. Good luck.

Play #2

Pittsburgh (+3) 1x (Locked)

I originally leaned to south florida, but the more I looked at this matchup, the more I viewed these two teams as equals. I have this game as pick, so I will gladly take the points at home.

Play #3

Stanford (-20.5) 1x (Locked)

In the Stanford game, I expect the cardinals to roll. No need for a writeup, as the cardinal is superior in all three phases and should win this by at least 28 points. Good luck.

Play #4

Northern IL (-8.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeup, but I expect the dominant huskie offense to roll. I set the huskies as -13 faves, so I see quite a bit of value here in spite of their weak d. Good luck.

Play #5

Texas Tech/Kansas over (66) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to take this one because I have it 69, howeve, once 66 became available I had to jump on it considering most books have 66.5 or 67. Good luck.

Play #6

Nebraska/Wisconsin under (57) 1x (Locked)

I wanted 58 but I don't think it ever gets there as I expect some steam on the under relatively soon. Yes, the badgers have been scoring points all year, however, their opponents have been defensively challenged. In this case, they will be facing one of the more efficient defenses in the country. In fact, both defenses are ranked in the top 21 teams in S&P+ defensive efficiency rankings. I have this game below the key number of 55 at 51, so I view 57 as a gift so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Just edited the above post to include my sixth play so far. Good luck.

[Luv2Play2]

bol on your weekend

[815Sox]

Thanks for the Pitt play LTA. I like the Wisconsin under too. I will probably get on Northern too. They are usually underrated. Usually they have the best program in Illinois by a good margin.

EDIT: This is a terribly written post

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the Pitt play LTA. I like the Wisconsin under too. I will probably get on Northern too. They are usually underrated. Usually they have the best program in Illinois by a good margin.

Pitt's going to be an easy winner...too bad they're not all like that

FYI...big pitching change in TB/Tex with Matt Moore in...I love that move. Possible play on the under....

[815Sox]

FYI...big pitching change in TB/Tex with Matt Moore in...I love that move. Possible play on the under....

Wow, I did not hear about that. That is worth a look for sure. As for Pitt v USF, I was at the infamous ND v USF game. USF played well but they have been pretty lucky.

[Redscot]

Nice start to a BIG weekend my man . Maddon is a ballsy manager, Moore has Price there who's been through this......intriguing ti say the least.

[Dexter]

you're not on the over hou tonight? i want to add more but the total went up from my original #...

im curious what made you not take over hou last night?

[Love The Action]

im curious what made you not take over hou last night?

Utep has poor S&P+ offensive efficiency numbers and I simply underestimated how bad houstons defense is this year. Believe me, I'm kicking myself. However, I had Pitt rated higher, so I went with them instead of the houston over, about which I was unsure. Good call

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 5

Play #1

Michigan State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Sparty in this Big Ten matchup. Now that some of the advanced stats are starting to take shape, it's pretty clear Michigan State is turning out to be the better team. Offensively, Michigan State is the better team with S&P+ offensive rankings which better Ohio State considerably. On the other side of the ball, both teams are comparable with Ohio State a little better S&P+ defensive ratings overall, but Michigan state bettering Ohio State in rushing S&P and passing S&P. As far as conventional stats, Michigan State as the better scoring offensive and scoring defense, the better rushing offense and defense and the number one passing defense to go with a much higher ranked passing offense. Finally, these important Big Ten games often come down to quarterback and I will take the experience of Cousins over the inexperience of the Ohio State QB rotation, especially Miller who will be starting now. Everything points to to Michigan State with an outright win, but I will take the 3.5 since I can get it. I suspect this one won't be above 3 at close. I'm rolling with the Michigan State. Good luck.

Play #2

Pittsburgh (+3) 1x (Locked)

I originally leaned to south florida, but the more I looked at this matchup, the more I viewed these two teams as equals. I have this game as pick, so I will gladly take the points at home.

Play #3

Stanford (-20.5) 1x (Locked)

In the Stanford game, I expect the cardinals to roll. No need for a writeup, as the cardinal is superior in all three phases and should win this by at least 28 points. Good luck.

Play #4

Northern IL (-8.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeup, but I expect the dominant huskie offense to roll. I set the huskies as -13 faves, so I see quite a bit of value here in spite of their weak d. Good luck.

Play #5

Texas Tech/Kansas over (66) 1x (Locked)

I was torn on whether to take this one because I have it 69, howeve, once 66 became available I had to jump on it considering most books have 66.5 or 67. Good luck.

Play #6

Nebraska/Wisconsin under (57) 1x (Locked)

I wanted 58 but I don't think it ever gets there as I expect some steam on the under relatively soon. Yes, the badgers have been scoring points all year, however, their opponents have been defensively challenged. In this case, they will be facing one of the more efficient defenses in the country. In fact, both defenses are ranked in the top 21 teams in S&P+ defensive efficiency rankings. I have this game below the key number of 55 at 51, so I view 57 as a gift so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Alabama (-4) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

Navy (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #9

Hawaii/LT over (60) 1x (Locked)

Play #10

Baylor/Kstate over (64) 1x (Locked)

Big card this week...I'm stepping out a bit now that I have some more time with less mlb to cap. More plays to come I'm sure. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey LTA, have a question for u. I understand the importance of making ur own lines and trying to grab early numbers that are off and present value. However the more i study ncaa and nfl lines, there are very few numbers that seem to go and never come back. It seems the openers fluctuate and then wind up right back where they were. So that being said, couldnt u find the same value late that u find early. Seems like these lines move in a circle to me.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, have a question for u. I understand the importance of making ur own lines and trying to grab early numbers that are off and present value. However the more i study ncaa and nfl lines, there are very few numbers that seem to go and never come back. It seems the openers fluctuate and then wind up right back where they were. So that being said, couldnt u find the same value late that u find early. Seems like these lines move in a circle to me.

Some do and some dont. I would say on ncaaf and nfl totals, you will rarely see a return to the opening number. Sides are different because so much money is exchanged back and forth. Personally, I am a firm believer that when you spot value between your line and the widely available number, you jump on it unless you can consitently and accurately predict that the line will move even further in your favor. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Thx for ur input. I agree with u on the totals. When they move they are gone, but the sides always seem to come back. But i too believe when u see value, grab it!

[Redscot]

Play #7

Alabama (-4) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

Navy (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #9

Hawaii/LT over (60) 1x (Locked)

Play #10

Baylor/Kstate over (64) 1x (Locked)

Big card this week...I'm stepping out a bit now that I have some more time with less mlb to cap. More plays to come I'm sure. Good luck.

Hey pal, there's at least 30 other games out there, nothing you like .

If this is any indication of baseball withdrawal I shudder to think what happens next week.

Will be tailing you on all my man, too damn lazy to do College sports.

[Krazymojo]

bama easy win?

[blackeyeshamus]

good luck tomorrow, LTA.
good to see you getting busy in college football.
stoked to have a very expensive baseball season in my rearview!
best of luck on the ncaa gridiron, sir!

[Love The Action]

Hey pal, there's at least 30 other games out there, nothing you like .

If this is any indication of baseball withdrawal I shudder to think what happens next week.

Will be tailing you on all my man, too damn lazy to do College sports.

Once I get into full college football mode in mid-to-late October, I usually have 12 to 15 college plays. When you are dealing with 60 available games, which provides for 120 plays with sides and totals, it's really not that much.

Good luck this weekend...let's make it a profitable one

[Love The Action]

good luck tomorrow, LTA.
good to see you getting busy in college football.
stoked to have a very expensive baseball season in my rearview!
best of luck on the ncaa gridiron, sir!

[Love The Action]

bama easy win?

I have them at -7. I think people are overestimating Charlie Weis' impact on the Florida offense and underestimating the Bama defense (if that's possible). Alabama is the better team. The swamp is always a tough place to play though. I wanted to get -3, but in never materialized and it cost me the hook when it went from 3.5 to 4. Nevertheless, I think we see a convincing win by bama and they cover the 4. Good luck.

[WarEagle43]

LTA Florida has played noboby!!! And I mean NOBODY. As an Auburn fan , while it hurts, the tide will 'roll' over an untested Florida team that has no idea what a defense really is! I realize that the sharps are on the gators but it "ain't" happening

[Donnie Brasco]

I think u guys are wrong. The florida offense is much improved under weis. Brantley was never comfortable under meyers spread. But with this pro style offense, things are much smoother. Alabama hasnt quite been tested either, and with muschamp's calling the defense, i think florida's athletes can keep them in this one. Give me home field, a key # of +4, and the public on bama and i think we have the makings of an upset or atleast a cover by florida! Good luck gents.

[JMF2479]

I think u guys are wrong. The florida offense is much improved under weis. Brantley was never comfortable under meyers spread. But with this pro style offense, things are much smoother. Alabama hasnt quite been tested either, and with muschamp's calling the defense, i think florida's athletes can keep them in this one. Give me home field, a key # of +4, and the public on bama and i think we have the makings of an upset or atleast a cover by florida! Good luck gents.

Florida does have an improved offense. But their defense is a lot weaker than Alabama's

[ManBearPig]

LT - Being a Nevada fan I know the WAC pretty well and I think Hawaii wins this straight-up and I'm on this as well...GL to us

[Trivial]

Play #7

Alabama (-4) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

Navy (-3)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Play #9

Hawaii/LT over (60) 1x (Locked)

Play #10

Baylor/Kstate over (64) 1x (Locked)

Big card this week...I'm stepping out a bit now that I have some more time with less mlb to cap. More plays to come I'm sure. Good luck.

Thanks LTA. I loved tailing you in MLB, and now starting to tail you in NCAAF. Thank you for all your hard work, and looking forward to a successful year.

[BigDan]

I think u guys are wrong. The florida offense is much improved under weis. Brantley was never comfortable under meyers spread. But with this pro style offense, things are much smoother. Alabama hasnt quite been tested either, and with muschamp's calling the defense, i think florida's athletes can keep them in this one. Give me home field, a key # of +4, and the public on bama and i think we have the makings of an upset or atleast a cover by florida! Good luck gents.

i think it pretty fair to say pen st on the road and ark are far better than anything fla has played. Brantly doing better because they arnt asking him to do much, if you think they can win this gm with their running gm and dumping off short all i can say is prove it to me. until further notice i will gladly lay 4 with the best team in the country (dont care who the polls have at 1, honestly dont even know as i never look).

could care less who "the public" (which is us btw) is on, and neither should you as long haul that about a 50/50 prop.

Give me the best team in the country, the best defense, the better coach (regardless of Muschamps pedigree at this point you have to give the big game experience to Saban), against a team that is still learning a new system with a limited qb, and ill happily lay the 4 (was really hoping to get -3 but never happened and ended up getting stuck on 4, not to worried tho)...


the great thing is one of us has to win.

hopefully it isnt you

[BigDan]

on the trees and bama. actually teased NIU with Illini (not sure why i been teasing so much lately? very unlike me).....off to work, BOL LTA and friends

[Donnie Brasco]

Good luck to u also dan, ur opinion is greatly respected. Man pig, how u feel about nevada today, i grabbed them +27.5.

[Redscot]

on the trees and bama. actually teased NIU with Illini (not sure why i been teasing so much lately? very unlike me).....off to work, BOL LTA and friends

GL BigD, Congrats on the Cards getting in.