LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

LTA. Whats ur thoughts on AZ St and Illinois? AZ St just seems like the better team to me in this one yet they are a dog.

I actually lean Illinois at home, but no play for me. Good luck

[Love The Action]

A late and surprising cover by SDST upends our Nevada play..that sucked...

[Redscot]

OK need to stop playing so close to the vest. Momentum gonna overtake 'em!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 3

Play #1

Ok St/Tulsa over (69) 1x (Locked) CANCELLED

Kinne and Co. has worked out some kinks without their top WR and playmaker in Johnson. Kinne can spread the ball around and get at least three TD's off of OKST. On defense, Tulsa just won't have the guns to stop OKST high powered attack. Whedon to Blackmon is damn near unstoppable this year and I think you will see that connection hit quite a bit tonight. Tulsa will score in the 20's and OKST in the 50's and this one should sail over. I have it at 72, but expect it to hit the 77 range. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Stanford/AZ over (55.5) 1x (Locked)

I love the quarterback matchup here and I also like Stanford to cover the spread. However, because I like Arizona's offense at home, I think the over is the safer play. I have this one at 62 after Arizona's defense was exploited last week and has not proven to be the "desert swarm" we are accustomed to. Luck will exploit Arizona's weakened secondary and Stanford will run all over that AZ front four, while Foles will get it done for AZ. I am rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #3

Kansas/GTech over (61) 1x (Locked) WINNER

We already cashed, so no writeup needed. GT covered the total on its own...sweet.

Play #4

Oklahoma (-3)(-115) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Florida St. is just not ready to roll with the big boys like Landry and Broyles. Simple as that. OU has something to prove in winning a big game on the road and I just don't this FSU can keep up with OU's offense. That will be a big mismatch similar to last season. The line has gone up to gone up to 3.5 as OU is clear play to me. I actually have this one at 7.5, but I think OU takes this one by a TD. FSU can keep it close with some explosive QB play, but OU will wear them down on both sides of the ball and take this one in the end. I am rolling with OU minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Houston (-6.5) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I think LTech is getting too much love with this line. Again, I always like to back experienced quarterbacks against weak offenses. In the first three weeks, I have been backing a ton of away favorites against my propensity for playing home dogs. Here, we have another away favorite, but I just think we're getting a ton of value. I have Houston at (-10) so I love this play. Keenum has a ton to prove and they will pour it one. Louisiana Tech will present a challenge at home, but Keenum will find enough success to pull ahead late. I like Houston minus the point for 1x.
Play #6

Nevada (-7)(-105) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Getting on this one a bit late, but I still like this number at -105. I expect Nevada to roll and win by at least two touchdowns. This should be Nevada's coming out party on their way to the top of the WAC and rebound after their loss to Oregon. Lantrip understands this offense and was able to move the ball against Oregon so I don't expect them to have trouble with SDST who first got rolled by Stanford and then lost a heartbreaker to UCLA. SDST will not be able to keep up with the Wolfpack and I'm rolling with Nevada for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Hawaii/UNLV over (60) 1x (Locked)

I watched some of Hawaii last week and was impressed with Moniz. I wish I would have been able to get this one on Thursday with my other plays when it was at 59 since that is such a crucial key number in NCAAF totals, but I have this one at 65 so I'm going to "gamble." UNLV's defense is still in the development stages playing freshmen and sophmores against Moniz who is as experienced as they come. UNLV got smoked by Wisconsin in its opener in a game that sailed over the posted total and I expect the same tonight. However, I expect UNLV to score its fair share as well. UNLV has moved the ball well so far this season and I expect that offense to exploit an undersized Hawaii defense. This one has high scoring written all over it and I'm a bit surprised the line is not higher. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

FYI - Play #1 OKST/Tulsa over (69) for 1x has been cancelled. No play.

I'm pretty happy about it...with the big delay and weather, I was a bit worried about the over. Let's hope we can pull out these late game overs. Not looking good though where Hawaii can't score for shit against one of the worst defenses out there and Arizona can't make a damn field goal. We'll see...hopefully, the scoring ramps up.

[Love The Action]

FYI - Play #1 OKST/Tulsa over (69) for 1x has been cancelled. No play.

I'm pretty happy about it...with the big delay and weather, I was a bit worried about the over. Let's hope we can pull out these late game overs. Not looking good though where Hawaii can't score for shit against one of the worst defenses out there and Arizona can't make a damn field goal. We'll see...hopefully, the scoring ramps up.

CHANGE...now it's showing as an ACTIVE bet again. I wanted to bet out of it but didn't because it was showing as cancelled. As soon as the game started, it went back to an active bet. That's some scammy bullshit. I have to count for the records now though.

[Love The Action]

******* Hawai azzholes. They finally scores some fuking points but decide to go for two points instead of the extra point and I get stuck with a push instead of a win. That really sucks. Now I really need this OKST over to hit in the crazy weather because this Stanford game is staying way under the the total.

[Love The Action]

How many fukin TD's are the AZ wide receivers going to miss. I have counted three so far right in their hands. Not to mention two missed field goals. Frustrating....

[Love The Action]

Sweet...looks like an easy winner with the OkSt/Tulsa over...by the third quarter no less. Hawai cost us a winning day, instead that was a push and we go 3-3...fuking Hawai going for the two point conversion instead of the field goal...sucks

[Love The Action]

NCAAF Recap Week 3

3 - 3 - 1 = -0.3x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

7 - 9 = -1.7x

Looks like we'll have to wait till next week to get in the black for the season. Hawaii cost us a winning night. Been getting some tough breaks, but the will even out. Good luck on NFL and MLB tomorrow.

[Redscot]

NCAAF Recap Week 3

3 - 3 - 1 = -0.3x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

7 - 9 = -1.7x

Looks like we'll have to wait till next week to get in the black for the season. Hawaii cost us a winning night. Been getting some tough breaks, but the will even out. Good luck on NFL and MLB tomorrow.

Damn Rainbow Warriors got all fruity on us. Oh well, next week is the break out.

[BiffTFinancial]

NCAAF Recap Week 3 3 - 3 - 1 = -0.3x NCAAF Season 2011-2012 7 - 9 = -1.7x Looks like we'll have to wait till next week to get in the black for the season. Hawaii cost us a winning night. Been getting some tough breaks, but the will even out. Good luck on NFL and MLB tomorrow.

you definitely got some tough breaks, LTA. no doubt you will be in the black soon, pal. will be sure to check out what you have for next week, as i'm a big believer in trying to catch the pendulum when it's swinging back. reading what you've been up to, i definitely get that feeling for next week. BOL, LTA.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 4

Play #1

NC/Georgia Tech over (58) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Georgia Tech (-7)(-105) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

UG/OleMiss over (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #4

Oregon/AZ over (65) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Central FL (+2) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

East Carolina (-14) 1x (Locked)

Play #7

Baylor (-20.5) 1x (Locked)

Good luck! Having trouble with my phone...will try to get some writeups done tomorrow.

[fergie's balls]

man all the SBR big guns on Ga Tech i'm going to have to play it

[shocktopme]

.

Good luck my friend...I gotta lean BYU tonight at home...If they dont have 7 turnovers and wear the D into the ground I think theyll be ok................Cheers bud

[BiffTFinancial]

with you on the UNC/GT over, good to see that you like it too. BOL, LTA.

[Redscot]

2 special team plays killed us. Cent. Fla was the better team last night, tough late turnovers and special teams play. Heaps sucks.

Gl on the rest of the card today bro, unbelievable day in bases.

[BigDan]

like Baylor as well, they should put up serious video gm numbers here.

hope you kill it today brother....

[Love The Action]

with you on the UNC/GT over, good to see that you like it too. BOL, LTA.

Good luck Biff.

[Love The Action]

2 special team plays killed us. Cent. Fla was the better team last night, tough late turnovers and special teams play. Heaps sucks.

Gl on the rest of the card today bro, unbelievable day in bases.

For sure...that UCF game messed up our perfect day...I'll take it though. Good luck today Red

[Love The Action]

like Baylor as well, they should put up serious video gm numbers here.

hope you kill it today brother....

Let's get it BD....good luck

[suicidekings]

[b]Play #1

NC/Georgia Tech over (58) 1x (Locked)

Playing the 2H Over 28. I think the Ov58 still hits as its hard to imagine both teams will continue to squander opportunities. The tempo should remain high. GL with this and the rest

[Love The Action]

Wow...fuk.....Steven Hill dropped a wide open TD for Georgia Tech to start the 4th quarter. I sure hope that doesn't cost us the over or the GT (-7) play. They would have went up 35-21...that really sucks.

[Love The Action]

Cash the GT over...now we just need them to cover the 7 points.

[Love The Action]

I can't believe Georgia and OleMiss have been stuck at 24-13 since halftime. I thought this one was in the bag and now I gotta sweat it out. I only need 54 to win...going to be tough to get 17 points in the fourth quarter though. I need this one after UCF blew it yesterday.

[Love The Action]

Looks like that Georgia over is going to be a loser, despite 37 points at halftime. Sheesh...no points at all through the 2h with only 6 minutes to go and the Georgia PK just missed a 35 yd FG. Coupled with the push on the GT game (which was my fault for not betting it earlier in the week and getting 6.5), my so-so college season continues. Thank god it's only week 4

[klrqn]

haha might be one of those days betting college football...plenty of time in the season left though, you're right!

[Love The Action]

E.Carolina already has like four turnovers...unreal...big money came on them pushing the closer to -16.5, so we got quite a bit of value on that play. I sure hope they turn it on in the 2h.

[Love The Action]

Wow...ECarolina just fumbled away an easy TD to put my cover in that one real jeopardy. That was their 6th turnover today. You can't make this shit up

Edit: After fumbling in the end zone, then they give up a 70 yard play and UAB is about to score...a 14 point swing. Geez...what was I thinking...I guess the stats can't predict turnovers.

[adamo1018]

LTA, youre saying over 65 for that Zona-Oregon game? I was looking to tail you tonight bc college football is not my best sport, but I very very rarely take overs and I was seeing what your take was on that one?

[adamo1018]

Not touching the USC game?

[Love The Action]

NCAAF Recap Week 4

3 - 3 - 1 = -0.3x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

10 - 12 = -2x

Same exact record two weeks in a row now where we end up going 3-3-1 and don't have a winning NCAAF week because of the push. It's only week 4 though and we have plenty of time. Now that the advanced team stats are starting to take shape, we will increase our aggressiveness for week 5. One big week and we are right back on schedule for our goal of a +20x season. Good luck on your MLB and NFL Sunday action!

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey brother, take a look at these: ucla, kentucky, clemson, miss st, auburn. Think there may be some value in early lines here as i feel faves are overvalued. These sec games are normally close grudge matches, an i think aub wins outright.

[blumpkin]

LTA what do you think of these totals Houston/utep over 64, cincy/miami o 56 and rutgers/syr at 50

thx

[BigDan]

Hey brother, take a look at these: ucla, kentucky, clemson, miss st, auburn. Think there may be some value in early lines here as i feel faves are overvalued. These sec games are normally close grudge matches, an i think aub wins outright.

agree with Clemson, think this gm is close and wouldnt be shocked to see clem get the W as not sure vtech can keep up..

totally disagree with any value at all on ucla at 21 or less, Stanford will physically dominate these clowns, little worried the biggest donkey on the site is loving the Trees but Stan just that team i dont care how "square" they are, i have been and will continue to ride this train, if they dont cover so be it, but damn sure wouldnt wanna be sitting there with a ucla ticket looking at a 41-10 score.

pretty much same for uk, doubt i play LSU with the morning start and easily huge letdown spot after waxing yet another quality team but how the hell is uk gonna score? even a unmotivated LSU d doesnt give up points to this group. only hope i can see is tigers not getting to 30...

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 5

Play #1

Michigan State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

I have to roll with Sparty in this Big Ten matchup. Now that some of the advanced stats are starting to take shape, it's pretty clear Michigan State is turning out to be the better team. Offensively, Michigan State is the better team with S&P+ offensive rankings which better Ohio State considerably. On the other side of the ball, both teams are comparable with Ohio State a little better S&P+ defensive ratings overall, but Michigan state bettering Ohio State in rushing S&P and passing S&P. As far as conventional stats, Michigan State as the better scoring offensive and scoring defense, the better rushing offense and defense and the number one passing defense to go with a much higher ranked passing offense. Finally, these important Big Ten games often come down to quarterback and I will take the experience of Cousins over the inexperience of the Ohio State QB rotation, especially Miller who will be starting now. Everything points to to Michigan State with an outright win, but I will take the 3.5 since I can get it. I suspect this one won't be above 3 at close. I'm rolling with the Michigan State. Good luck.