LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Redscot]

Pardon my ignorance, but what is WONGing?

They are 6 point teaser plays where you take favorites between 7.5 and 8.5 and tease them down to -1.5 to - 2.5 crossing the important 7 and 3 point victory margins. Conversely you take underdogs of 1.5 to 2.5 and tease them up to +7.5 to +8.5 again crossing the ever important 3 and 7 barriers.

[ManBearPig]

Let's get it MBP

So Hawaii is up 40-13 in the 3rd...just wondering why I didn't hit the ML as well. Oh well as long as there's no funny business should be another win today.

[Love The Action]

How the fuk did Georgia Tech push yesterday...

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 5 Recap

7 - 4 - 1 = +3.2x

How the hell did Georgia Tech push? I was at a wedding and they were up 45-20 in the fourth quarter. Today, I check my account and it was a push. WTF...three weeks in a row now where multiple pushes cost me some nice profit.

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

17 - 16 = +1.2x

Back in the black and ready for a big NCAAF Week 6. We will be stepping out next week as we finally have more time for NCAAF with MLB in the playoffs now. We will have some multiple unit plays next week.

[Dexter]

great week LTA....

[Redscot]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 5 Recap

7 - 4 - 1 = +3.2x

How the hell did Georgia Tech push? I was at a wedding and they were up 45-20 in the fourth quarter. Today, I check my account and it was a push. WTF...three weeks in a row now where multiple pushes cost me some nice profit.

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

17 - 16 = +1.2x


Back in the black and ready for a big NCAAF Week 6. We will be stepping out next week as we finally have more time for NCAAF with MLB in the playoffs now. We will have some multiple unit plays next week.

Nice job my man, made me some coin

[Krazymojo]

any nfl????

[Love The Action]

any nfl????

Yep....http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handic...l#post11699385

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[BigDan]

might wanna check Mizzou out before line gets above 3....

[rwd201]

Thread jumps to page 3

[fitguy67]

Your model has this game at "58.5" so you're taking the OVER 65...

That "58.5" must be a typo, right...or is there something I'm missing?

[Donnie Brasco]

What site u use for advanced stats in foots LTa?

[Donnie Brasco]

What site u use for advanced stats in foots LTa?

Nevermind, found ur post

[Dexter]

nice to see you on over oregon.

[Redscot]

Thanks LTA, I like it and also like Oregon to put it on Cal early and often tonight. Thinking of teasing this one to -17 and over 59. Been hot with the teasers this year, can't help myself. Any red flags you see on the side?

[bleedtoledo]

Yeah here's a red flag: hopefully Cal doesn't start faking injuries to slow them down again this year!

[Redscot]

Yeah here's a red flag: hopefully Cal doesn't start faking injuries to slow them down again this year!

Yeah, da bastids

[Love The Action]

Your model has this game at "58.5" so you're taking the OVER 65...

That "58.5" must be a typo, right...or is there something I'm missing?

That's a typo...should read 68.5....gl

[Love The Action]

Thread jumps to page 3

[Love The Action]

Thanks LTA, I like it and also like Oregon to put it on Cal early and often tonight. Thinking of teasing this one to -17 and over 59. Been hot with the teasers this year, can't help myself. Any red flags you see on the side?

[pagodo]

Thanks LTA, I like it and also like Oregon to put it on Cal early and often tonight. Thinking of teasing this one to -17 and over 59. Been hot with the teasers this year, can't help myself. Any red flags you see on the side?

Hey, Redscot, I have just placed this exact bet, -17 and o59, for 2.5 units, then went here to browse some football threads and found your post. Hope you played it, good luck!

Great to see you back in the black, LTA, good luck with week 6's card!

[Redscot]

Hey, Redscot, I have just placed this exact bet, -17 and o59, for 2.5 units, then went here to browse some football threads and found your post. Hope you played it, good luck!

Great to see you back in the black, LTA, good luck with week 6's card!

Lets get this shiznit Pagodo . "Great minds think alike".....but my dad would always reply...."Fools seldom differ".....let's hope it's the first

GL LTA, thanks as always for putting in the work and the details you provide

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Well this Oregon play is not going according to plan. The Ducks were supposed to be winning in order to force Cal into hurry up catch up mode. Instead, Cal is running out the clock and kicking field goals. We need a TD before halftime in the worst way...could be big in what might end up being a very sharp total.

[Love The Action]

Wow...that interception hurt...Cal will probably kneel on the ball now before half....damn

[Redscot]

An early score or 2 by Oregon will force Cal out of the ball control offense......

[Love The Action]

Cal can't score from the 5 yard line with four tries...pretty much would have guaranteed a push. Now we need to pray for a big play in these last 5 minutes...

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)

Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Dexter]

Cal can't score from the 5 yard line with four tries...pretty much would have guaranteed a push. Now we need to pray for a big play in these last 5 minutes...

last play of the game looked like an easy td that the wr dropped....they didnt show a replay but i think he had it.

what a joke that game was...

[Love The Action]

last play of the game looked like an easy td that the wr dropped....they didnt show a replay but i think he had it.

what a joke that game was...

Sick loss Dex...I don't what to say. I agree about the last play...I had to replay it multiple times and I still can't see how he missed it even with slow motion. Whatever...onto Friday

[Redscot]

Sick loss Dex...I don't what to say. I agree about the last play...I had to replay it multiple times and I still can't see how he missed it even with slow motion. Whatever...onto Friday

Game was rolling, can't believe that didn't go over. Actually BrahmaBull made a good point in another thread , After the James injury life got sucked out of that game. I'd make that over play again 10 times out of 10.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 6

Play #1

Cal/Oregon over (65) 1x (Locked)

Oregon's offense is clicking right now and I actually think California's passing attack can put up three td's and a fg against Oregon. At this point, Oregon needs to smash people and run up the score in order to continue to advance back up the ranking. That is something Chip Kelly does not shy away from. Oregon is a top 10 offense in both rushing, passing and scoring and also in advanced efficiency S&P+ stats. California, on the other hand, is actually a top 25 in advanced efficiency stats when it comes to the pass and passing downs. I think the key to this over is the pace. We all know Oregon keeps a fast pace in order to pile on the scores. Because of California's affinity for the pass, they will feed right into Oregon's fast paced mode and follow the leader so to speak. I expect a lot of big plays and offensive drives. Don't be surprised if you see the total drop a few points, because I have noticed this has happened on some games that ended going way over (see last week's Houston/Utep and Kansas/TT games). I lot of people blindly bet unders on game like this and look to fade the public. However, sometimes the public is right and I think that applies in this case where the majority of all bets are in favor of the over. I like this play at 65 or under because 65 is key total number for NCAAF. I have this game coming in at 58.5, so I'm rolling with with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Boise St./Fresno St. over (58) 1x (Locked)

Make no mistake Fresno St. can score, especially at home. Even though Boise has a great defense, they are playing at Fresno and that will only help Fresno's offense. In addition, Fresno has shown the ability to score at least three TD's against "big" programs as evidenced by their 28 points against Miss, 29 points against Nebraska and 21 points against Cal this year. Both Nebraska and Cal have solid S&P+ defensive efficiency scores in the top 30 of the country. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's defense is pretty weak and there's no doubt Boise will get at least 6 touchdowns on Friday if not 7. As long as we get 5 or 6 touchdowns from Boise and three TD's from Fresno with a few FG's for both teams sprinkled in, this one should sail over the posted total and I'm taking the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Memphis/Rice over (59) 1x (Locked)

Would have liked to get 58 here so we can cash on the key number of 59, but we'll risk the push because I think this one flies over the total. You have two of the worst defenses in the league against a veteran offense in the Rice team that has put up some decent numbers this season against top competition. Memphis does not have the cohesiveness of Rice, but can easily put up three or four touchdowns against this weak Rice defense. I expect a Rice win and possible cover, but feel the best play is on the over. I have this one at 65, so I'm way off or the books are. I guess we'll find out on Saturday, but I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked)

Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

[BiffTFinancial]

Play #4 Kansas/OSU over (73) 1x (Locked) Some books have 73.5 and I would not play it at that number because 73 is the most important key total number in the 70's in NCAAF. However, I have this one at 76, so there is a FG worth of value here and I expect OSU to roll over Kansas' weak defense. On the other side, Kansas will get you three or four TD's. I expect Whedon and Blackmon to connect early and often to pad those stats and there's not KU can do to stop them. No need for a big writeup here as OSU has the horses to score 60 on their own. The question is if KU can get us at least three td's and I think they can. I shy away from overs in the 70's because there is very little room for error, however, in this case I will give it a shot. Kansas has a horrible defense whether you look at advanced or standard stats while OSU is an offensive juggernaut. With KU's ability to put some points on the board, however, we have a nice shot at the over and I'm rolling that way for 1x. Good luck.

BOL this week, LTA. many thanks for your MLB plays, been tailing those and doing quite well this week.

[Dexter]

Sick loss Dex...I don't what to say. I agree about the last play...I had to replay it multiple times and I still can't see how he missed it even with slow motion. Whatever...onto Friday

that was not the normal oregon offense at home. they were fast paced, but usually at home they are super fast paced. plenty of times cal got to sub on defense.

that one hurt...