LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Lunatikz]

Let's get it LTA!

[Love The Action]

SJST recovers a Hawaii fumble on Hawaii's 5 yard line, can't score a TD on three plays and then misses a 20 yard FG. Sure hope that doesn't come back to hurt us...

[Krazymojo]

SJST recovers a Hawaii fumble on Hawaii's 5 yard line, can't score a TD on three plays and then misses a 20 yard FG. Sure hope that doesn't come back to hurt us...

wow

[Dexter]

2 weeks to prepare for smu doesnt bother you? not sure if they have had the same coach, but they are 3-1 ATS off byes last 3 years.

[decado]

SJST recovers a Hawaii fumble on Hawaii's 5 yard line, can't score a TD on three plays and then misses a 20 yard FG. Sure hope that doesn't come back to hurt us...

Now SJST is on fire. Hawaii QB who apparently did not throw an INT in 150+ games just made back-to-back INT today. At least the over is back on track now.

[Krazymojo]

I like the over for the Wisc. game

[Krazymojo]

Ok game over looks good too

[Love The Action]

2 weeks to prepare for smu doesnt bother you? not sure if they have had the same coach, but they are 3-1 ATS off byes last 3 years.

Can't be too worried about a four game sample size...that's just not too significant in my mind. I think the athletic advantage of Central Florida will trump any advantage of June Jones off the bye. Plus, with the big high off the overtime game winner over TCU, SMU may have coasted through the week a little during practice rather than employing a razor sharp focus.

That game will be about mental mistakes, because CF has a pretty stout advantage in athleticism -- bigger, stronger, faster -- that's what you are going to see on the field from CF. The issue is whether CF plays smart, something they have not done on a consistent basis. I am trusting O'Leary to make sure they play at their best. This is a big game for CF because of that BYU loss, if they take another loss in this spot, they are going to have a tough time pulling themselves back up to a bowl appearance. This is a very important game for CF and I expect to see them play with a sense of urgency.

All the advanced stats point to CF being the better team and some of the situational angles equalize any bye advantage SMU may have. I'm firmly behind Central Florida in this one.

[Love The Action]

This game is really ugly to watch with all these turnovers and it's killing the over because the turnovers are killing scoring drives...unreal...ridiculous.

[Krazymojo]

again

[Krazymojo]

also leaning auburn and bama

[alamo]

Despite all the turnovers 24pts have come from turnovers. Thats got to help !

[Love The Action]

also leaning auburn and bama

Bama perhaps...but I'm not sure Auburn would be the right play. It's pretty clear the Tide will roll and most likely cover. An Auburn win/cover is not so sure. I actually have Auburn at +3, which is one point more than the +2 of Vegas. Florida is the better overall team according to the avanced stats, but the question mark is the quarterback. I don't trust Auburn and I don't trust Florida's qb, so probably better to sit that one out. At least, that's my plan...gl

[Krazymojo]

B smart go for 2 hahaha

[Love The Action]

Why the fuk would they take a delay of game penalty, push themselves back, go for two points, and then **** call a run play up the middle

[Krazymojo]

Why the fuk would they take a delay of game penalty, push themselves back, go for two points, and then **** call a run play up the middle

AAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[Love The Action]

Wow...why would Hawaii burn a time out after getting a first down and the clock stop anyway. I am astounded by this brand of football, from poor coaching decisions to a million turnovers to the inability to kick field goals and extra points. I can't believe this is going to lose...

[Dexter]

Why the fuk would they take a delay of game penalty, push themselves back, go for two points, and then **** call a run play up the middle

one of the worst teams i have ever watched....they were so happy to score a TD, they had no idea what to do next.

[Love The Action]

On that note, I'm out. Just a brutal beat...that one should have sailed over by 10 points. Between the four errors which blew the Cards/Brewers under and this fuking disaster of a game, I just can't believe it. It's just inexplicable.

[alamo]

That over\under line set at 56 was sharp !

[Love The Action]

That over\under line set at 56 was sharp !

Disagree...there were four easy fg's or extra points missed or blocked. This game should have easily hit at least 60. Whatever though, that's life in the sports market...

[Krazymojo]

Disagree...there were four easy fg's or extra points missed or blocked. This game should have easily hit at least 60. Whatever though, that's life in the sports market...

Its over and done with and plenty of games to win today BOL everyone!

[CdeQ]

LTA, totally agree with you, both sides were boneheads

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

Excellent LTA. Thank you very much as usual. I am on the 4 plays for today, as 2 of these plays are already done. I got the USC one, and didn't get the Hawaii one (good play, fortunate for me I missed it).

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Kansas St./Texas Tech over (60) 1x (Locked)

I've been trying all week to get the key number of 59 on this one, but it was never offered. The books were pretty smart with this one opening at 59.5 and never getting low as 59. That makes me a little weary about this play, but I am going to take the value and run. I have 65 for this one so either I am way off or the books are...I sure as hell hope its them. Texas Tech's poor defense should allow Kansas St. to have one of those breakout offensive performances, similar to what I expect from Rutgers facing Navy today. On the other side, even though KState has a respectable defense ranked 44th overall in S&P+ defensive efficiency, I don't think they are able to stop one of the better offenses in NCAAF for the whole game. Even though KState is going to want to avoid a shootout, I'm just don't think they will have the ability to stop Tech's explosive offense at home and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

For you Toledo backers, I really love that play but just can't lay the 8.5 in that big rivalry game at BG. If it was at Toledo, maybe. If I could have gotten the -7 that was available earlier in the week, I would jump all over it. However, -8.5 is just too much for me at this point. Good luck...I really love that Toledo play.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Kansas St./Texas Tech over (60) 1x (Locked)

I've been trying all week to get the key number of 59 on this one, but it was never offered. The books were pretty smart with this one opening at 59.5 and never getting low as 59. That makes me a little weary about this play, but I am going to take the value and run. I have 65 for this one so either I am way off or the books are...I sure as hell hope its them. Texas Tech's poor defense should allow Kansas St. to have one of those breakout offensive performances, similar to what I expect from Rutgers facing Navy today. On the other side, even though KState has a respectable defense ranked 44th overall in S&P+ defensive efficiency, I don't think they are able to stop one of the better offenses in NCAAF for the whole game. Even though KState is going to want to avoid a shootout, I'm just don't think they will have the ability to stop Tech's explosive offense at home and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Similar offenses with with a huge defensive and home field advantage to NC. I have NC favored by -5, so once some Miami money dropped this under the key number of 3, I had to jump on it. Most bets are on Miami today, so I'll roll with the better overall team as shown in FEI, S&P+, F/+ ratings and Sagarin ratings. I expect NC to be fired up to play a storied Miami program at home in front of its own crowd. Although a letdown is always possible, I just don't see it happening today. The stats point to NC and I have to roll that way as well for 1x. Good luck.

[nyymvp]

Do you like South Carolina at MISS State or is that a trap? New QB figures to be better than Garcia who people were saying might have got kicked out because of point shaving...

[Love The Action]

Do you like South Carolina at MISS State or is that a trap? New QB figures to be better than Garcia who people were saying might have got kicked out because of point shaving...

No play on that game for me but I do lean South Carolina. I think they get it done. I'm not excited about taking 03.5 for that one though, so I will probably lay off. But remember, I don't believe in "traps." Cap the game, set your line and compare your probability of a team winning/covering against the probability posted by Vegas. I recommend using line movement, but not as a deciding factor in plays. Line movement is a guide. Traps and the Vegas boogie man are an antiquated concept.

[Lunatikz]

Best of luck today LT

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Kansas St./Texas Tech over (60) 1x (Locked)

I've been trying all week to get the key number of 59 on this one, but it was never offered. The books were pretty smart with this one opening at 59.5 and never getting low as 59. That makes me a little weary about this play, but I am going to take the value and run. I have 65 for this one so either I am way off or the books are...I sure as hell hope its them. Texas Tech's poor defense should allow Kansas St. to have one of those breakout offensive performances, similar to what I expect from Rutgers facing Navy today. On the other side, even though KState has a respectable defense ranked 44th overall in S&P+ defensive efficiency, I don't think they are able to stop one of the better offenses in NCAAF for the whole game. Even though KState is going to want to avoid a shootout, I'm just don't think they will have the ability to stop Tech's explosive offense at home and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Similar offenses with with a huge defensive and home field advantage to NC. I have NC favored by -5, so once some Miami money dropped this under the key number of 3, I had to jump on it. Most bets are on Miami today, so I'll roll with the better overall team as shown in FEI, S&P+, F/+ ratings and Sagarin ratings. I expect NC to be fired up to play a storied Miami program at home in front of its own crowd. Although a letdown is always possible, I just don't see it happening today. The stats point to NC and I have to roll that way as well for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Penn State (-12) 1x (Locked)

I don't know about you, but I'm not a fan of Penn State and think they are joke for keeping a mummified Paterno around. However, they should roll pretty easy in this game. Purdue is not good...don't let their dominate win over Minnesota fool you. Purdue is ranked in the bottom 15 of all NCAAF in FEI, F/+ and S&P+ ratings. At the end of the day, I don't see Purdue getting much going offensively against this dominate Nittany Lion defense. When you really dig into the stats, I think they are really undervalued in this game. I have them set at -17 over this Purdue team which lost to Rice. There are not situational angles which point to an upset here as neither team is in a look-ahead or let down spot. Instead this is a big game for Penn State as they need a blowout win in front of their fans to instill some confidence in not only those fans but also the pollsters. I think Penn State wins this one pretty easily and I'm rolling with the Nittany Lions for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Good luck brother after a tough night. Love ur total pick and the osu pick. Cant flush more money on rutgers and i dont trust penn state as far as joepa could throw me! Look forward to the rest of ur card. My picks of the day are south carolina and lsu!