LTA's NCAAF Plays

[suicidekings]

Play #8

North Carolina (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Similar offenses with with a huge defensive and home field advantage to NC. I have NC favored by -5, so once some Miami money dropped this under the key number of 3, I had to jump on it. Most bets are on Miami today, so I'll roll with the better overall team as shown in FEI, S&P+, F/+ ratings and Sagarin ratings. I expect NC to be fired up to play a storied Miami program at home in front of its own crowd. Although a letdown is always possible, I just don't see it happening today. The stats point to NC and I have to roll that way as well for 1x. Good luck.

I've been thinking about this one all week. I just added it to the card, and think its a winner. Good luck today LTA.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Kansas St./Texas Tech over (60) 1x (Locked)

I've been trying all week to get the key number of 59 on this one, but it was never offered. The books were pretty smart with this one opening at 59.5 and never getting low as 59. That makes me a little weary about this play, but I am going to take the value and run. I have 65 for this one so either I am way off or the books are...I sure as hell hope its them. Texas Tech's poor defense should allow Kansas St. to have one of those breakout offensive performances, similar to what I expect from Rutgers facing Navy today. On the other side, even though KState has a respectable defense ranked 44th overall in S&P+ defensive efficiency, I don't think they are able to stop one of the better offenses in NCAAF for the whole game. Even though KState is going to want to avoid a shootout, I'm just don't think they will have the ability to stop Tech's explosive offense at home and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Similar offenses with with a huge defensive and home field advantage to NC. I have NC favored by -5, so once some Miami money dropped this under the key number of 3, I had to jump on it. Most bets are on Miami today, so I'll roll with the better overall team as shown in FEI, S&P+, F/+ ratings and Sagarin ratings. I expect NC to be fired up to play a storied Miami program at home in front of its own crowd. Although a letdown is always possible, I just don't see it happening today. The stats point to NC and I have to roll that way as well for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Penn State (-12) 1x (Locked)

I don't know about you, but I'm not a fan of Penn State and think they are joke for keeping a mummified Paterno around. However, they should roll pretty easy in this game. Purdue is not good...don't let their dominate win over Minnesota fool you. Purdue is ranked in the bottom 15 of all NCAAF in FEI, F/+ and S&P+ ratings. At the end of the day, I don't see Purdue getting much going offensively against this dominate Nittany Lion defense. When you really dig into the stats, I think they are really undervalued in this game. I have them set at -17 over this Purdue team which lost to Rice. There are not situational angles which point to an upset here as neither team is in a look-ahead or let down spot. Instead this is a big game for Penn State as they need a blowout win in front of their fans to instill some confidence in not only those fans but also the pollsters. I think Penn State wins this one pretty easily and I'm rolling with the Nittany Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

6 pt Teaser
Georgia Tech (-2)/Toledo (-2.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I love both of these plays but they both were bet up past the key numbers of 7 and 8 before I could get to these games. Nevertheless, I have both of these teams set at -10 on the road. I think by teasing both of them down below the key number of 3, makes this a pretty safe wager. Both favorites have huge advanced stat advantage and motivational angles supporting these plays. Toledo and BG is a big rivalry game so expect a superior Toledo team to be motivated and ready to play. On the other side, Georgia Tech needs to continue its consistent play and cannot suffer any letdowns if it wants to continue its bid to be in national championship talks. I expect a good game from both road chalk teams in this spot and I am going to tease them down under the key number of 3 for 1x. Good luck.

[veeds1690]

GL sir! I have a teaser myself GTand OK State. I like it just as much as it with Toledo

[Love The Action]

I've been thinking about this one all week. I just added it to the card, and think its a winner. Good luck today LTA.

Good to hear...good luck to you as well

[Donnie Brasco]

Wow, just getting to civilization and learning how the south carolina game ended! **** me!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Kansas St./Texas Tech over (60) 1x (Locked)

I've been trying all week to get the key number of 59 on this one, but it was never offered. The books were pretty smart with this one opening at 59.5 and never getting low as 59. That makes me a little weary about this play, but I am going to take the value and run. I have 65 for this one so either I am way off or the books are...I sure as hell hope its them. Texas Tech's poor defense should allow Kansas St. to have one of those breakout offensive performances, similar to what I expect from Rutgers facing Navy today. On the other side, even though KState has a respectable defense ranked 44th overall in S&P+ defensive efficiency, I don't think they are able to stop one of the better offenses in NCAAF for the whole game. Even though KState is going to want to avoid a shootout, I'm just don't think they will have the ability to stop Tech's explosive offense at home and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Similar offenses with with a huge defensive and home field advantage to NC. I have NC favored by -5, so once some Miami money dropped this under the key number of 3, I had to jump on it. Most bets are on Miami today, so I'll roll with the better overall team as shown in FEI, S&P+, F/+ ratings and Sagarin ratings. I expect NC to be fired up to play a storied Miami program at home in front of its own crowd. Although a letdown is always possible, I just don't see it happening today. The stats point to NC and I have to roll that way as well for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Penn State (-12) 1x (Locked)

I don't know about you, but I'm not a fan of Penn State and think they are joke for keeping a mummified Paterno around. However, they should roll pretty easy in this game. Purdue is not good...don't let their dominate win over Minnesota fool you. Purdue is ranked in the bottom 15 of all NCAAF in FEI, F/+ and S&P+ ratings. At the end of the day, I don't see Purdue getting much going offensively against this dominate Nittany Lion defense. When you really dig into the stats, I think they are really undervalued in this game. I have them set at -17 over this Purdue team which lost to Rice. There are not situational angles which point to an upset here as neither team is in a look-ahead or let down spot. Instead this is a big game for Penn State as they need a blowout win in front of their fans to instill some confidence in not only those fans but also the pollsters. I think Penn State wins this one pretty easily and I'm rolling with the Nittany Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

6 pt Teaser
Georgia Tech (-2)/Toledo (-2.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I love both of these plays but they both were bet up past the key numbers of 7 and 8 before I could get to these games. Nevertheless, I have both of these teams set at -10 on the road. I think by teasing both of them down below the key number of 3, makes this a pretty safe wager. Both favorites have huge advanced stat advantage and motivational angles supporting these plays. Toledo and BG is a big rivalry game so expect a superior Toledo team to be motivated and ready to play. On the other side, Georgia Tech needs to continue its consistent play and cannot suffer any letdowns if it wants to continue its bid to be in national championship talks. I expect a good game from both road chalk teams in this spot and I am going to tease them down under the key number of 3 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Stanford (-19.5) 1x (Locked)

This will be a solid road test for Stanford and I expect them to be up for the challenge. Road faves have been getting killed all day and I will have some dogs for the late games, but in this one I have to roll with the Cardinal. This team has just been steamrolling opponents and I expect the same today against a horrible Washington State defense. The disparity in rating here is huge and I'm going to roll with the heavy road chalk for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Vanderbilt (+14.5) 1.5x (Locked)

I really like this as a let down spot for Georgia and a correlation with the under so I am going to play both. Vandy has a great rushing offense and a great defense. With them playing at home, I love this as a huge upset spot and would not be surprised to see an outright win. I am rolling with Vandy for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #13

Georgia/Vanderbilt under (42.5) 1x (Locked)

Running short on time so no in-depth writeup but I love this correlation with my big upset pick on Vandy. You have two great defenses and teams that will look to run first tonight. Vandy will try to hold the ball and run the clock. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Kansas State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

Running out of time, but I think Kansas States ability to run the ball and play defense just a bit better than Tech will lead to their cover or outright win in a game that goes over the posted total. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Play #11

Stanford (-19.5) 1x (Locked)

This will be a solid road test for Stanford and I expect them to be up for the challenge. Road faves have been getting killed all day and I will have some dogs for the late games, but in this one I have to roll with the Cardinal. This team has just been steamrolling opponents and I expect the same today against a horrible Washington State defense. The disparity in rating here is huge and I'm going to roll with the heavy road chalk for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Vanderbilt (+14.5) 1.5x (Locked)

I really like this as a let down spot for Georgia and a correlation with the under so I am going to play both. Vandy has a great rushing offense and a great defense. With them playing at home, I love this as a huge upset spot and would not be surprised to see an outright win. I am rolling with Vandy for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #13

Georgia/Vanderbilt under (42.5) 1x (Locked)

Running short on time so no in-depth writeup but I love this correlation with my big upset pick on Vandy. You have two great defenses and teams that will look to run first tonight. Vandy will try to hold the ball and run the clock. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Kansas State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

Running out of time, but I think Kansas States ability to run the ball and play defense just a bit better than Tech will lead to their cover or outright win in a game that goes over the posted total. Good luck.

Just saw these added 4 plays. Didn't they all start already? Maybe not Stanford, I need to check, but the rest of them?

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

W.Mich/N.IL over (68) 1x (Locked)

Too busy for in-depth writeups right now, but I will say that you have two top 35 rated offenses in S&P+ efficiency and top 25 rated qb's battling an average Wmich defense and poor NIL defense. The only way the huskies stay in this game is to open it up with Harnish and force Carder and Wmich to play catchup. I have this one set at 72.5 and would take any number under 70 with this much value, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Hawaii/SJST over (56) 1x (Locked)

The Spartans home field advantage should help this team score a bit more than they would otherwise score on the road. With Rutley cleared to play, the spartans should be able to shred that weak warrior run D and the senior faulkner is capable of moving the ball through the air. On the other side, hawaii and moniz have found their offensuve rhythm after some early season missteps and the spartan defense is in no position to stop moniz. The only way this one does not fly over the posted total is if hawaii turns the ball over and allows sjst to keep them off the field. However, with two horrible defensive teams ranked 86 & 89th in the country in S&P+ efficiency, I dont see that happening. I have this one at 60 points, so I was a bit leery to see such a low total posted by vegas, but I have to trust my model here and we will jump on the value. Therefore, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rutgers (-3.5) 1x (Locked)

This is a huge game for a school that is not used to success. Rutgers has been led by their defense and they will be tested today by Navy's triple option. However, they have faced the triple option last season and should not be unfamiliar with the necessary assignments. Rutgers is the better team, playing at home with more to play for. I never underestimate the academy teams because they are the toughest of the tough -- they defend our country. However, in this case, I expect a solid win by Rutgers so I'm going to risk the hook. I generally don't like to get hooked on key numbers, but I have Rutgers at -7.5 in this game so I think we're getting too much value to pass up. Even though Rutgers offense is weak and many of their points have come off turnovers on defense, I think the weak Navy defense will provide Rutgers the springboard to a solid offensive performance. Overall FEI, S&P+ and F/+ efficiency rankings give the clear edge to Rutgers and I'm going to roll with Rutgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Oklahoma State (-7) 1x (Locked)

A huge public play with OSU, so that is a bit disconcerting, but they have so many weapons and I just think that Texas defensive backfield is not seasoned enough to put up a fight. I have OSU favored by 10 in this game and I just expect them to wear Texas down throughout the game and win this one pretty comfortably. Until last week, Texas did not really play an explosive offense and we all saw what Oklahoma did to them. I expect the same from OSU today. Perhaps this is one of those scary "trap" games, but I don't think the Vegas boogie man gets us on this one today, just like he didn't get us with USC on Thursday. I'm rolling with OSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Kansas St./Texas Tech over (60) 1x (Locked)

I've been trying all week to get the key number of 59 on this one, but it was never offered. The books were pretty smart with this one opening at 59.5 and never getting low as 59. That makes me a little weary about this play, but I am going to take the value and run. I have 65 for this one so either I am way off or the books are...I sure as hell hope its them. Texas Tech's poor defense should allow Kansas St. to have one of those breakout offensive performances, similar to what I expect from Rutgers facing Navy today. On the other side, even though KState has a respectable defense ranked 44th overall in S&P+ defensive efficiency, I don't think they are able to stop one of the better offenses in NCAAF for the whole game. Even though KState is going to want to avoid a shootout, I'm just don't think they will have the ability to stop Tech's explosive offense at home and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

North Carolina (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

Similar offenses with with a huge defensive and home field advantage to NC. I have NC favored by -5, so once some Miami money dropped this under the key number of 3, I had to jump on it. Most bets are on Miami today, so I'll roll with the better overall team as shown in FEI, S&P+, F/+ ratings and Sagarin ratings. I expect NC to be fired up to play a storied Miami program at home in front of its own crowd. Although a letdown is always possible, I just don't see it happening today. The stats point to NC and I have to roll that way as well for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Penn State (-12) 1x (Locked)

I don't know about you, but I'm not a fan of Penn State and think they are joke for keeping a mummified Paterno around. However, they should roll pretty easy in this game. Purdue is not good...don't let their dominate win over Minnesota fool you. Purdue is ranked in the bottom 15 of all NCAAF in FEI, F/+ and S&P+ ratings. At the end of the day, I don't see Purdue getting much going offensively against this dominate Nittany Lion defense. When you really dig into the stats, I think they are really undervalued in this game. I have them set at -17 over this Purdue team which lost to Rice. There are not situational angles which point to an upset here as neither team is in a look-ahead or let down spot. Instead this is a big game for Penn State as they need a blowout win in front of their fans to instill some confidence in not only those fans but also the pollsters. I think Penn State wins this one pretty easily and I'm rolling with the Nittany Lions for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

6 pt Teaser
Georgia Tech (-2)/Toledo (-2.5) 1.1x to win 1x (Locked)

I love both of these plays but they both were bet up past the key numbers of 7 and 8 before I could get to these games. Nevertheless, I have both of these teams set at -10 on the road. I think by teasing both of them down below the key number of 3, makes this a pretty safe wager. Both favorites have huge advanced stat advantage and motivational angles supporting these plays. Toledo and BG is a big rivalry game so expect a superior Toledo team to be motivated and ready to play. On the other side, Georgia Tech needs to continue its consistent play and cannot suffer any letdowns if it wants to continue its bid to be in national championship talks. I expect a good game from both road chalk teams in this spot and I am going to tease them down under the key number of 3 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Stanford (-19.5) 1x (Locked)

This will be a solid road test for Stanford and I expect them to be up for the challenge. Road faves have been getting killed all day and I will have some dogs for the late games, but in this one I have to roll with the Cardinal. This team has just been steamrolling opponents and I expect the same today against a horrible Washington State defense. The disparity in rating here is huge and I'm going to roll with the heavy road chalk for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Vanderbilt (+14.5) 1.5x (Locked)

I really like this as a let down spot for Georgia and a correlation with the under so I am going to play both. Vandy has a great rushing offense and a great defense. With them playing at home, I love this as a huge upset spot and would not be surprised to see an outright win. I am rolling with Vandy for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #13

Georgia/Vanderbilt under (42.5) 1x (Locked)

Running short on time so no in-depth writeup but I love this correlation with my big upset pick on Vandy. You have two great defenses and teams that will look to run first tonight. Vandy will try to hold the ball and run the clock. I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Kansas State (+3.5) 1x (Locked)

Running out of time, but I think Kansas States ability to run the ball and play defense just a bit better than Tech will lead to their cover or outright win in a game that goes over the posted total. Good luck.

Play #15

Oklahoma/Kansas over (70.5) 2x (Locked)

I was hoping to see this one drop. The action on the total in this one is pretty split which is just what the books want. However, I love the over in this spot because I expect Kansas to score on OU much more than Texas did. Kansas actually has the 20th ranked passing offense in S&P+ efficiency and I love that they are at home. Don't be surprised to see OU put up some points early and often which puts KU in catch-up mode which will required a quick pace and a lot of action through the air. That will lead to a lot of plays and possessions for both teams. OU is a juggernaut this year both offensively and defensively. As long as we get three to four touchdowns from KU in a rout game, I think this one could hit 80. I have this game set at 76 and we're getting almost a full touchdown in value, so I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

[Krazymojo]

Georgia/Vandy no more scoring pleaseeeeee

[Love The Action]

If we get fuked out of this OK/Kansas over because of that bullshit call which took away an Oklahoma TD, I don't know what I'm going to do.

Between Penn State and Rutgers blowing easy covers, I am already sick to my stomach. I should be up by 4x on the day going into this final game, instead I'm fighting for a 2x day with this one looking very scary unless we get some big plays quick. Unreal...

[Love The Action]

I can't fuking believe we didn't cash this Oklahoma game over....44 points at halftime, the refs steal an easy touchdown and we miss hitting the over by that TD that they stole. I have never been so pissed. I want to fuking throw up.

Sorry, just had to vent. The bad beats I suffered today with Penn State, Rutgers and now this game have me so pissed.

Nothing a big day in the NFL won't solve. Still, this hurts.

[Krazymojo]

same position 9-9 with the asu/ducks game over pending at 66.5

[Donnie Brasco]

What am i missing in this rutgers @ louisville situation? It opens lou +1.5 then moves to rut +2?!?!? On paper rutgers is far and away the better team with tougher schedule. Advanced stats go to rutgers, what am i missing??

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7 Recap

7 - 8 = -2.3

OU/Kansas over just killed my Saturday...44 points at halftime, 20 point in the 2h because plenty of scoring chances ruined by turnovers...

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

29 - 32 = -5.6x

The tough breaks even out and we had enough of them on Saturday to last all season. It's time things start bouncing our way...

[Love The Action]

What am i missing in this rutgers @ louisville situation? It opens lou +1.5 then moves to rut +2?!?!? On paper rutgers is far and away the better team with tougher schedule. Advanced stats go to rutgers, what am i missing??

The reason is that much of Rutgers early season success was due to defensive scoring and turnovers. You can't continue that sort of model and Rutgers blows. Too bad I had to bet them this week against Navy to figure that out. They had two turnovers within Navy's five yard line and three blocked field goals, including one with 40 seconds left to give me the cover. With that said, I wouldn't be afraid to bet them this week if I think they are the play....

Good luck this week Donnie

[Donnie Brasco]

U too bro! Thx for the insight as always.

[Trivial]

Heya LTA. Any insight into the game tonight? Thx.

[Love The Action]

I will have a play tonight....just waiting on some line movement....

[Seaton420]

Who you like Arkansas st or FIU?

[Trivial]

I will have a play tonight....just waiting on some line movement....

Cool. Thanks.

[Kooser55]

Do you like boise -30.5, arkansas -17 and maryland +17?

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Awesome , apparently my capping is getting better cause i am already on it! Gl buddy!

[bleedtoledo]

Hey LTA, just writing to let you know Green Bay line opened at -7.5, is now 8.5 and Vikes just announced Ponder will start. I bet line moves at least one more point. Don'tcha think?

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, just writing to let you know Green Bay line opened at -7.5, is now 8.5 and Vikes just announced Ponder will start. I bet line moves at least one more point. Don'tcha think?

It will close in the 9-9.5 range. I dont see it going to 10....gl

[Trivial]

Wow.. Didn't expect to see this line going to +3 (+105) and in some cases to even +3.5.

I thought I did well getting -102 during the day as the line movement was showing me to jump.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Lean to the over as well, but it's not playable over 54 and all I can get is 54.5. I missed the jump from 53 to 54.5 while I was in the car. I may play it if I can get get 54 but really liked 53. Some money coming in on Arkansas State a bit earlier, but that is starting to even out now. Trivial mentioned a move to 3.5, but that is a false move only at Bookmaker outlets and did not stick for more than a minute. As long as Pinny, 5d and Matchbook don't move to 3.5 before tip I will still feel very strongly about this play.

Contemplating an action teaser on FIU and over as well...generally don't make action wagers on games where I have a real play though...let's see where this total goes.

Good luck tonight

[Trivial]

Lean to the over as well, but it's not playable over 54 and all I can get is 54.5. I missed the jump from 53 to 54.5 while I was in the car. I may play it if I can get get 54 but really liked 53. Some money coming in on Arkansas State a bit earlier, but that is starting to even out now. Trivial mentioned a move to 3.5, but that is a false move only at Bookmaker outlets and did not stick for more than a minute. As long as Pinny, 5d and Matchbook don't move to 3.5 before tip I will still feel very strongly about this play.

Contemplating an action teaser on FIU and over as well...generally don't make action wagers on games where I have a real play though...let's see where this total goes.

Good luck tonight

Thanks LTA. I will be watching, and wishing us all luck. Gotta come back from this weekend.

All the best and cheers.

[Trivial]

It is now 3.5 , but the juice is heavy on the +3.5. This shows that at least people are still backing it.

[bleedtoledo]

My book is 3.5 -110

[Love The Action]

My book is 3.5 -110

It is now 3.5 , but the juice is heavy on the +3.5. This shows that at least people are still backing it.

Not a good sign guys, but line movement is neither right more than 50% of the time nor does it decide the game.

Let's just root for FIU and see what happens...good luck

[Trivial]

Ouch. I could have kicked that field goal.

[Love The Action]

Never good when you miss a 35 yard field goal to start the game. I have to admit, I forgot to check out the kickers which I usually do. Anyone know if either team has an advantage in kicking?

[Trivial]

Definitely still very, very positive.

[suicidekings]

The FIU defense helping us out early with an interception