LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

need a couple big plays

I'm not one to chase. I'll make a big play where it's warranted, but I'm not going to throw around 2x, 3x, 4x or 5x plays unless they are warranted as such. That is irresponsible. My baseball units are more $375 at the moment and my football units are at $250 for right now. So I'm not going to start betting a ton of money and risk all of my MLB profit on these football games, especially when I'm not getting the breaks at the moment. I raise my units steaks when I'm hot and pull back when I'm cold. However, I don't think I'm cold, I just think I'm not getting any breaks whatsover and instead they are going against me.

If I was losing value, then I would say these are bad plays. However, I'm making solid plays that are beating the closer.

For example, I bought the OKST/Miss game at 69 and it closed at 70.5. I bought NC at +11 and it closed at +9.5. I bought NIU/Buff at 62 and it closed at 62.5. The only early game which I didn't beat the closer was Wake/Duke which we bought at 60.5 and it closed at 60.5.

These are all winning bets over time (except for the Wake/Duke game), they just didn't cash today. As long as I keep making good wagers that are ahead of the market, we will profit long term. It's just a matter of time and patience. I'm freeking due for a big weekend...it's coming. I will have like a 13-3 or around there week before the season is over. Book it.

[815Sox]

Played the Miami/GA Tech over and followed you onto Toledo. Those are going to be my only college football plays for the week. thanks again. Miami/GA Tech over isn't looking good, but crazier things have happened.

[815Sox]

I will have like a 13-3 or around there week before the season is over. Book it.

I don't play many college games (of any sports)... but there is no doubt in my mind that this will happen. You have proved yourself a 100 times over just on baseball alone in my book. I also agree that its good to take a pass on that game tonight.

[Love The Action]

Played the Miami/GA Tech over and followed you onto Toledo. Those are going to be my only college football plays for the week. thanks again. Miami/GA Tech over isn't looking good, but crazier things have happened.

Yeah man, I don't know. Bough GT/Mia at 62 and it closed at 64. It was a good play, but GT's offense is in a serious regression. Washington is having a horrible time through the air. I thought based on the last couple bad weeks, GT would bounce back with some big plays. It's just not happening. Very disappointing. I desperately needed this game....

[Redscot]

Yeah man, I don't know. Bough GT/Mia at 62 and it closed at 64. It was a good play, but GT's offense is in a serious regression. Washington is having a horrible time through the air. I thought based on the last couple bad weeks, GT would bounce back with some big plays. It's just not happening. Very disappointing. I desperately needed this game....

Based on where the line closed you were not alone misreading this total. GT offense looks hapless through the air and Miami's speed defensively is limiting the option. Time to turn the page on this one and look ahead...

[Love The Action]

I don't play many college games (of any sports)... but there is no doubt in my mind that this will happen. You have proved yourself a 100 times over just on baseball alone in my book. I also agree that its good to take a pass on that game tonight.

Losing happens...that's why money management is so important. I just hate to lose most of my MLB playoff profit because of bad beats in NCAAF.

My bankroll is really going to miss the NBA. The NBA and MLB are my best and most profitable sports. My models in those sports are refined many times over and I have a natural ability to predict line movement in those sports (especially in totals). Those are my big money makers. NFL and NCAAF pale in comparison. Last year I made well over 130x in profit between the NBA regular season and playoffs (which is about 60x when converted to my current MLB unit weight). As you know, I did pretty well in this season's MLB. Last NFL season I lost about 5x and last NCAAF season I won about 20x. As you can see from those results, I really depend on NBA and MLB for most of my sports investment profit.

I really hope the NBA doesn't miss the whole season because I'm not a big NCAAB or NHL guy and my wife depends on our sports investing profit to pay for our vacations and the extras we buy for ourselves that we wouldn't otherwise buy. That's why she doesn't mind all the time I put into sports investment. Oh man, she is going to be pissed when I tell her how my Saturday is going so far.

[Redscot]

Losing happens...that's why money management is so important. I just hate to lose most of my MLB playoff profit because of bad beats in NCAAF.

I really hope the NBA doesn't miss the whole season because I'm not a big NCAAB or NHL guy and my wife depends on our sports investing profit to pay for our vacations and the extras we buy for ourselves that we wouldn't otherwise buy. That's why she doesn't mind all the time I put into sports investment. Oh man, she is going to be pissed when I tell her how my Saturday is going so far.

I kind of have a similar deal with the old lady here as well. Adds an extra layer to the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat....That's for sure! Incredible the 6th sense they have though when you have a bad run

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)
This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Northern Illinois/Buffalo over (62) 1x (Locked)

Last week was a big win for Northern Illinois and I don't expect a letdown today. With that said, however, Buffalo was shutout against Temple last week and I fully expect them to be very motivated to put on a good performance at home. As we know, NIU is not the best ATS team on the road and I think the better play in this game is the over. NIU has a great offense as shown by a top 25 ranking in OFEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. They are a great passing team that can also rush, but more than anything can score. They consistently ring up numbers in the 40's. On the other side, I would say Buffalo is a motivate dog in this one with a surprising offense. They are really not that bad and they will be going against a poor NIU defense ranked in the bottom third of all advanced defensive stats. On offense, Buffalo sports a very good 34th ranking overall in Rushing S&P+ efficiency and should be able to gash a weak NIU rushing defense who ranks 80th in the defensive category. I also expect Buffalo to put some points on the board through the air at home with the crowd (what crowd there is) behind them. I expect an NIU win, but for Buffalo to be an active dog today by scoring into the high 20's or low 30's against that weak NIU D. As long as NIU has an average offensive performance against this very weak Buffalo defense, this game should fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Toledo (-16.5) 1x (Locked)

This one has romp written all over it and I may add to my 1x stake later today and bring it up to 2x. You have a Toledo team that is ranked in the top 30 in most major advanced statistical categories, including OFEI, DFEI, OFF S&P+ and DEF S&P+ going against a Miami (OH) team that is ranked in the bottom 10 in those same categories. That is a huge disparity where Toledo can dominate the Red Birds in all three phases of the game, has the home field advantage and is playing with high motivation being big-time revenge from their loss lost year. I expect Toledo to keep the foot on the gas all the way through to the end in this one and win comfortably. I have Toledo at -20 and I would not be surprised to see them win by 28. I also lean to the over in this game, but feel the better play is on Toledo and I'm rolling the Rockets for 1x and maybe more later. Good luck.

Play #13

East Carolina/Navy over (65) 1x (Locked)

This one topped 100 points last season and while I don't think we see that same score today, I do think this one flies over 65. You have a Navy team who has a great offense and really, really bad defense against an inconsistent ECU team that could come out and put 40 points on the board just as easy that it could get shut out. However, because of the weakness in Navy's defense, I think ECU keeps up with Navy's scoring in this one. Because ECU is so poor against the rush, however, Navy will run all over this ECU defense en route to a game that tops 65. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Oklahoma/Texas Tech over (70) 1x (Locked)

I don't expect Oklahoma to make the same mistakes they made last week against Kansas, which should lead to at least 6 to 7 td's against this week defense. However, Texas Tech will score and they should put up some points against this solid OU defense. I like a shootout in this spot and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Michigan State (+8) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for a better number, but I don't see this one getting close to 9. So I'm going to take a shot with the 8 points. Bottom line is that MSU has a bit better defense with an offense that can keep them in this game at home. All of the advanced stat overall rankings have these two teams about 5 to 7 spots apart and that is not enough to warrant an 8 point spread. I wouldn't go big on this game, but I have MSU set at +6 so I will take a shot on the home dog for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

LTA where do you have the Mich ST./Whisky total? Thanks in advance

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)
This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Northern Illinois/Buffalo over (62) 1x (Locked)

Last week was a big win for Northern Illinois and I don't expect a letdown today. With that said, however, Buffalo was shutout against Temple last week and I fully expect them to be very motivated to put on a good performance at home. As we know, NIU is not the best ATS team on the road and I think the better play in this game is the over. NIU has a great offense as shown by a top 25 ranking in OFEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. They are a great passing team that can also rush, but more than anything can score. They consistently ring up numbers in the 40's. On the other side, I would say Buffalo is a motivate dog in this one with a surprising offense. They are really not that bad and they will be going against a poor NIU defense ranked in the bottom third of all advanced defensive stats. On offense, Buffalo sports a very good 34th ranking overall in Rushing S&P+ efficiency and should be able to gash a weak NIU rushing defense who ranks 80th in the defensive category. I also expect Buffalo to put some points on the board through the air at home with the crowd (what crowd there is) behind them. I expect an NIU win, but for Buffalo to be an active dog today by scoring into the high 20's or low 30's against that weak NIU D. As long as NIU has an average offensive performance against this very weak Buffalo defense, this game should fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Toledo (-16.5) 1x (Locked)

This one has romp written all over it and I may add to my 1x stake later today and bring it up to 2x. You have a Toledo team that is ranked in the top 30 in most major advanced statistical categories, including OFEI, DFEI, OFF S&P+ and DEF S&P+ going against a Miami (OH) team that is ranked in the bottom 10 in those same categories. That is a huge disparity where Toledo can dominate the Red Birds in all three phases of the game, has the home field advantage and is playing with high motivation being big-time revenge from their loss lost year. I expect Toledo to keep the foot on the gas all the way through to the end in this one and win comfortably. I have Toledo at -20 and I would not be surprised to see them win by 28. I also lean to the over in this game, but feel the better play is on Toledo and I'm rolling the Rockets for 1x and maybe more later. Good luck.

Play #13

East Carolina/Navy over (65) 1x (Locked)

This one topped 100 points last season and while I don't think we see that same score today, I do think this one flies over 65. You have a Navy team who has a great offense and really, really bad defense against an inconsistent ECU team that could come out and put 40 points on the board just as easy that it could get shut out. However, because of the weakness in Navy's defense, I think ECU keeps up with Navy's scoring in this one. Because ECU is so poor against the rush, however, Navy will run all over this ECU defense en route to a game that tops 65. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Oklahoma/Texas Tech over (70) 1x (Locked)

I don't expect Oklahoma to make the same mistakes they made last week against Kansas, which should lead to at least 6 to 7 td's against this week defense. However, Texas Tech will score and they should put up some points against this solid OU defense. I like a shootout in this spot and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Michigan State (+8) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for a better number, but I don't see this one getting close to 9. So I'm going to take a shot with the 8 points. Bottom line is that MSU has a bit better defense with an offense that can keep them in this game at home. All of the advanced stat overall rankings have these two teams about 5 to 7 spots apart and that is not enough to warrant an 8 point spread. I wouldn't go big on this game, but I have MSU set at +6 so I will take a shot on the home dog for 1x. Good luck.

Play #16

Wisconsin/Michigan State under (51) 1x (Locked)

Once we were able to push on the key number of 51, I had to jump on this one. I have it set at 48 and this is a correlation play with my MSU call. This will be Wisky's first real test on the road, and although they might win, I don't see them rolling in this spot. I suspect we will see this end with a Wisky win with a final score of 21-17 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)

This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Northern Illinois/Buffalo over (62) 1x (Locked)

Last week was a big win for Northern Illinois and I don't expect a letdown today. With that said, however, Buffalo was shutout against Temple last week and I fully expect them to be very motivated to put on a good performance at home. As we know, NIU is not the best ATS team on the road and I think the better play in this game is the over. NIU has a great offense as shown by a top 25 ranking in OFEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. They are a great passing team that can also rush, but more than anything can score. They consistently ring up numbers in the 40's. On the other side, I would say Buffalo is a motivate dog in this one with a surprising offense. They are really not that bad and they will be going against a poor NIU defense ranked in the bottom third of all advanced defensive stats. On offense, Buffalo sports a very good 34th ranking overall in Rushing S&P+ efficiency and should be able to gash a weak NIU rushing defense who ranks 80th in the defensive category. I also expect Buffalo to put some points on the board through the air at home with the crowd (what crowd there is) behind them. I expect an NIU win, but for Buffalo to be an active dog today by scoring into the high 20's or low 30's against that weak NIU D. As long as NIU has an average offensive performance against this very weak Buffalo defense, this game should fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Toledo (-16.5) 1x (Locked)

This one has romp written all over it and I may add to my 1x stake later today and bring it up to 2x. You have a Toledo team that is ranked in the top 30 in most major advanced statistical categories, including OFEI, DFEI, OFF S&P+ and DEF S&P+ going against a Miami (OH) team that is ranked in the bottom 10 in those same categories. That is a huge disparity where Toledo can dominate the Red Birds in all three phases of the game, has the home field advantage and is playing with high motivation being big-time revenge from their loss lost year. I expect Toledo to keep the foot on the gas all the way through to the end in this one and win comfortably. I have Toledo at -20 and I would not be surprised to see them win by 28. I also lean to the over in this game, but feel the better play is on Toledo and I'm rolling the Rockets for 1x and maybe more later. Good luck.

Play #13

East Carolina/Navy over (65) 1x (Locked)

This one topped 100 points last season and while I don't think we see that same score today, I do think this one flies over 65. You have a Navy team who has a great offense and really, really bad defense against an inconsistent ECU team that could come out and put 40 points on the board just as easy that it could get shut out. However, because of the weakness in Navy's defense, I think ECU keeps up with Navy's scoring in this one. Because ECU is so poor against the rush, however, Navy will run all over this ECU defense en route to a game that tops 65. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Oklahoma/Texas Tech over (70) 1x and 0.50x over (69.5) (Locked)

I don't expect Oklahoma to make the same mistakes they made last week against Kansas, which should lead to at least 6 to 7 td's against this week defense. However, Texas Tech will score and they should put up some points against this solid OU defense. I have this one set at 73 and I like a shootout in this spot. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Michigan State (+8) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for a better number, but I don't see this one getting close to 9. So I'm going to take a shot with the 8 points. Bottom line is that MSU has a bit better defense with an offense that can keep them in this game at home. All of the advanced stat overall rankings have these two teams about 5 to 7 spots apart and that is not enough to warrant an 8 point spread. I wouldn't go big on this game, but I have MSU set at +6 so I will take a shot on the home dog for 1x. Good luck.

Play #16

Wisconsin/Michigan State under (51) 1.5x (Locked)

Once we were able to push on the key number of 51, I had to jump on this one. I have it set at 48 and this is a correlation play with my MSU call. This will be Wisky's first real test on the road, and although they might win, I don't see them rolling in this spot. I suspect we will see this end with a Wisky win with a final score of 21-17 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #16 and Play #14
Correct unit stakes reflected above

[Donnie Brasco]

Great, usc looking dominant. should went with my gut!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)

This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Northern Illinois/Buffalo over (62) 1x (Locked)

Last week was a big win for Northern Illinois and I don't expect a letdown today. With that said, however, Buffalo was shutout against Temple last week and I fully expect them to be very motivated to put on a good performance at home. As we know, NIU is not the best ATS team on the road and I think the better play in this game is the over. NIU has a great offense as shown by a top 25 ranking in OFEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. They are a great passing team that can also rush, but more than anything can score. They consistently ring up numbers in the 40's. On the other side, I would say Buffalo is a motivate dog in this one with a surprising offense. They are really not that bad and they will be going against a poor NIU defense ranked in the bottom third of all advanced defensive stats. On offense, Buffalo sports a very good 34th ranking overall in Rushing S&P+ efficiency and should be able to gash a weak NIU rushing defense who ranks 80th in the defensive category. I also expect Buffalo to put some points on the board through the air at home with the crowd (what crowd there is) behind them. I expect an NIU win, but for Buffalo to be an active dog today by scoring into the high 20's or low 30's against that weak NIU D. As long as NIU has an average offensive performance against this very weak Buffalo defense, this game should fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Toledo (-16.5) 1x (Locked)

This one has romp written all over it and I may add to my 1x stake later today and bring it up to 2x. You have a Toledo team that is ranked in the top 30 in most major advanced statistical categories, including OFEI, DFEI, OFF S&P+ and DEF S&P+ going against a Miami (OH) team that is ranked in the bottom 10 in those same categories. That is a huge disparity where Toledo can dominate the Red Birds in all three phases of the game, has the home field advantage and is playing with high motivation being big-time revenge from their loss lost year. I expect Toledo to keep the foot on the gas all the way through to the end in this one and win comfortably. I have Toledo at -20 and I would not be surprised to see them win by 28. I also lean to the over in this game, but feel the better play is on Toledo and I'm rolling the Rockets for 1x and maybe more later. Good luck.

Play #13

East Carolina/Navy over (65) 1x (Locked)

This one topped 100 points last season and while I don't think we see that same score today, I do think this one flies over 65. You have a Navy team who has a great offense and really, really bad defense against an inconsistent ECU team that could come out and put 40 points on the board just as easy that it could get shut out. However, because of the weakness in Navy's defense, I think ECU keeps up with Navy's scoring in this one. Because ECU is so poor against the rush, however, Navy will run all over this ECU defense en route to a game that tops 65. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Oklahoma/Texas Tech over (70) 1x; 0.50x over (69.5); 0.50x over (69) (Locked)

I don't expect Oklahoma to make the same mistakes they made last week against Kansas, which should lead to at least 6 to 7 td's against this week defense. However, Texas Tech will score and they should put up some points against this solid OU defense. I have this one set at 73 and I like a shootout in this spot. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Michigan State (+8) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for a better number, but I don't see this one getting close to 9. So I'm going to take a shot with the 8 points. Bottom line is that MSU has a bit better defense with an offense that can keep them in this game at home. All of the advanced stat overall rankings have these two teams about 5 to 7 spots apart and that is not enough to warrant an 8 point spread. I wouldn't go big on this game, but I have MSU set at +6 so I will take a shot on the home dog for 1x. Good luck.

Play #16

Wisconsin/Michigan State under (51) 1.5x (Locked)

Once we were able to push on the key number of 51, I had to jump on this one. I have it set at 48 and this is a correlation play with my MSU call. This will be Wisky's first real test on the road, and although they might win, I don't see them rolling in this spot. I suspect we will see this end with a Wisky win with a final score of 21-17 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #14 for total of 2x (Correct unit stakes noted above)

Line moved to 69 at one of my locals while the other stayed at 70. Pinny at and 5d remain in the 69.5 and 70 range so I'm going to make this a 2x play with 4 points of value on my line of 73. Good luck (we need some!).

[Love The Action]

Great, usc looking dominant. should went with my gut!

Agreed! You should always go with your own gut or capping process...otherwise you will regret it more often than not. I would never change my play based on what someone else says, so I don't know why anyone else would either. Still got time and ND blew a huge lead to Michigan so anything can happen, but ND just had a chance to force a punt and committed a stupid taunting penalty. If they continue to play dumb, there's no way they comeback. I wouldn't necessarily say this one is over though....

[Love The Action]

I sure hope MSU's fumble on it's own 30, from which Wisky scored its second td, does not come back to haunt us on both the under. Right now, it sure looks like it will....

[Love The Action]

So hard to cap a turnover for a TD, a punt return for a TD and a blocked punt for a TD when capping that Wisky/MSU under...Maybe they just won't score at all in the 2h

[Love The Action]

Tulsa and Rice score 17 points in each of the first quarter and second quarter...how many in the third quarter? 3

Let's see if the same type of shutdown happens on our under in the MSU/Wisky game...

[YouHave2outs]

Tulsa and Rice score 17 points in each of the first quarter and second quarter...how many in the third quarter? 3

Let's see if the same type of shutdown happens on our under in the MSU/Wisky game...

Tulsa and Rice score 17 points in each of the first quarter and second quarter...how many in the third quarter? 3

Let's HOPE the same type of shutdown happens on our under in the MSU/Wisky game...








fixed it!

[Trivial]

Tulsa and Rice score 17 points in each of the first quarter and second quarter...how many in the third quarter? 3

Let's see if the same type of shutdown happens on our under in the MSU/Wisky game...

I hear you man. Wow. 37 points already. That was unexpected.

As you say, you can't cap 21 points handed to the teams. Ouch.

Thought about hedging, but the number is 26 for the second half, and I'm not sure what to do with that, so I'm doing nothing.

[Donnie Brasco]

Agreed! You should always go with your own gut or capping process...otherwise you will regret it more often than not. I would never change my play based on what someone else says, so I don't know why anyone else would either. Still got time and ND blew a huge lead to Michigan so anything can happen, but ND just had a chance to force a punt and committed a stupid taunting penalty. If they continue to play dumb, there's no way they comeback. I wouldn't necessarily say this one is over though....

Not beating on you bro, i just dont trust myself sometimes. Having a terrible day. This last play did not help! Shit! Just like every other year, irish cant win the big game!

[Love The Action]

OMG Notre Dame...on the one yard line going in for the touchdown and they can't even handle the qb/center exchange and USC runs 95 yards for the td...this is unreal...you couldn't even make this stuff up. I want to be on the other end of these types of plays just once

[YouHave2outs]

i have SC +9, MSU +8.5, and no o/u bets.

and throw me in mtennst -4.5 for a unit for comedy.

i'm a run good fish

[Love The Action]

Not beating on you bro, i just dont trust myself sometimes.

I know...but you should learn to trust yourself. I've just found that whenever you go with your original instinct, you end up being right more often than not.

Time to start thinking about a bounceback Sunday....

[Love The Action]

And a missed field goal by Oklahoma to take that one off track for the over...would have given us 17 points heading into the second quarter...now not so much...it's just getting comical

[Trivial]

Well.. 48 points now. The third quarter was good to us. Lets hope the clock can get expired like every other OVER game we have had without any points. Let us get this under.

[Trivial]

And a missed field goal by Oklahoma to take that one off track for the over...would have given us 17 points heading into the second quarter...now not so much...it's just getting comical

Indeed. You gotta laugh, or else we'd all be joining everyone else in the looney bin.

[815Sox]

Thanks for the Toledo play LTA!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)

This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Northern Illinois/Buffalo over (62) 1x (Locked)

Last week was a big win for Northern Illinois and I don't expect a letdown today. With that said, however, Buffalo was shutout against Temple last week and I fully expect them to be very motivated to put on a good performance at home. As we know, NIU is not the best ATS team on the road and I think the better play in this game is the over. NIU has a great offense as shown by a top 25 ranking in OFEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. They are a great passing team that can also rush, but more than anything can score. They consistently ring up numbers in the 40's. On the other side, I would say Buffalo is a motivate dog in this one with a surprising offense. They are really not that bad and they will be going against a poor NIU defense ranked in the bottom third of all advanced defensive stats. On offense, Buffalo sports a very good 34th ranking overall in Rushing S&P+ efficiency and should be able to gash a weak NIU rushing defense who ranks 80th in the defensive category. I also expect Buffalo to put some points on the board through the air at home with the crowd (what crowd there is) behind them. I expect an NIU win, but for Buffalo to be an active dog today by scoring into the high 20's or low 30's against that weak NIU D. As long as NIU has an average offensive performance against this very weak Buffalo defense, this game should fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Toledo (-16.5) 1x (Locked)

This one has romp written all over it and I may add to my 1x stake later today and bring it up to 2x. You have a Toledo team that is ranked in the top 30 in most major advanced statistical categories, including OFEI, DFEI, OFF S&P+ and DEF S&P+ going against a Miami (OH) team that is ranked in the bottom 10 in those same categories. That is a huge disparity where Toledo can dominate the Red Birds in all three phases of the game, has the home field advantage and is playing with high motivation being big-time revenge from their loss lost year. I expect Toledo to keep the foot on the gas all the way through to the end in this one and win comfortably. I have Toledo at -20 and I would not be surprised to see them win by 28. I also lean to the over in this game, but feel the better play is on Toledo and I'm rolling the Rockets for 1x and maybe more later. Good luck.

Play #13

East Carolina/Navy over (65) 1x (Locked)

This one topped 100 points last season and while I don't think we see that same score today, I do think this one flies over 65. You have a Navy team who has a great offense and really, really bad defense against an inconsistent ECU team that could come out and put 40 points on the board just as easy that it could get shut out. However, because of the weakness in Navy's defense, I think ECU keeps up with Navy's scoring in this one. Because ECU is so poor against the rush, however, Navy will run all over this ECU defense en route to a game that tops 65. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #14

Oklahoma/Texas Tech over (70) 1x; 0.50x over (69.5); 0.50x over (69) (Locked)

I don't expect Oklahoma to make the same mistakes they made last week against Kansas, which should lead to at least 6 to 7 td's against this week defense. However, Texas Tech will score and they should put up some points against this solid OU defense. I have this one set at 73 and I like a shootout in this spot. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Michigan State (+8) 1x (Locked)

I've been waiting for a better number, but I don't see this one getting close to 9. So I'm going to take a shot with the 8 points. Bottom line is that MSU has a bit better defense with an offense that can keep them in this game at home. All of the advanced stat overall rankings have these two teams about 5 to 7 spots apart and that is not enough to warrant an 8 point spread. I wouldn't go big on this game, but I have MSU set at +6 so I will take a shot on the home dog for 1x. Good luck.

Play #16

Wisconsin/Michigan State under (51) 1.5x (Locked)

Play #17

NMST/Hawaii over (61) 1x (Locked)

My model has 62 for this one, so I'll take a shot at the over with these two horrible defenses. Hawaii can put up some quick points and NMST should be able to score on Hawaii. Hawaii has motivation for a big night after losing last week and having some extra prep time for this game. I should have taken this play earlier in the week when it was at 58, but I didn't get it fully capped until a few hours ago. My other book at 62.5, so this isn't the worst line and we push on the key number of 61. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Internet was down for awhile so my post on the Hawaii game didn't go through for awhile. When my internet went back up and the post went through, the game had no score through the first couple minutes. Therefore, that game will count win or lose. Certainly doesn't look good right now

If I can just close out this OU/TT over and Hawaii over, I will have had some successful damage control to only a few unit loss on the week. I just hope we can get it done and the gambling god have mercy on me after torturing me the last couple weeks in NCAAF.

Time to close the chapter on this week regardless...off to work on NFL before bed. There are three plays I really like....

[Love The Action]

Need two touchdowns with 12 minutes left to cash the TT/OU over...really need that one...

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 8 Recap

6 - 9 - 2 = -3.5x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

35 - 41 = -9x

The last two weeks have just killed us as we go from +5x to -9x pretty damn quick. I'm not going to even rehash all the bad beats as I am sure they are all burned in our mind. We have no choice but to move on and get ready for next week. Nowhere to go but up and we are due for a huge week. These bad beats have to start evening out sooner or later and variance is on our side for once. Good luck next week.

[Love The Action]

Time to start thinking about week 9....who has early leans?

[svenodds]

BOL in week 9

[Redscot]

NCAAF 2011 Week 8 Recap

6 - 9 - 2 = -3.5x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

35 - 41 = -9x

The last two weeks have just killed us as we go from +5x to -9x pretty damn quick. I'm not going to even rehash all the bad beats as I am sure they are all burned in our mind. We have no choice but to move on and get ready for next week. Nowhere to go but up and we are due for a huge week. These bad beats have to start evening out sooner or later and variance is on our side for once. Good luck next week.

Tough couple of weeks bro, but I have faith in the work you put in. Looking forward to a positive Sunday

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

Jumping on this one early. Have IL set at +4 and I dont trust penn state. Writeup to come. Good luck.