LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

[qbsafety8]

Hate to be on the opposite side of you, but Troy is def the right play here. Road team + dog has been the trend in recent meetings. Watch it continue.

[Love The Action]

Hate to be on the opposite side of you, but Troy is def the right play here. Road team + dog has been the trend in recent meetings. Watch it continue.

So troy is the play because players from the past who are not on these teams covered as road dogs? Sorry bud, I'm not buying it. I give almost no weight to historical team trends because they are both statistically insignificant and inapplicable because these are different players. Troy may cover, but not because of that trend imho. Good luck bud

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey lta, my model while infantile in its development has the line fiu -6.5 plus hfa which in this case i applied 2.5 to make fiu a -9. My totals model has this one at 53.3 giving us 2 points of value to the under. Plus the fact that these tuesday night games have been favoring the under, i have a lean that way also. Any thoughts?

[Donnie Brasco]

I also have a lean to vandy +10. This arkansas team is just struggling right now. I know this is poor logic but vandy desrtoyed ole miss and ole miss just played ark tight. Vandy defense at home plus the points might be a play here.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey brother, just getting done with va/miami. My model has miami -10.5. My total was right on with pinny @ 48. The interesting thing to me is the F+ ratings on these teams. Uva @ 45, miami @ 34. What type of point values do u assign for advantages in s+p, f+, etc? Are u looking for a percentile diff? And does that correlate to point value in some way?

[Donnie Brasco]

Got alot of time on my hands today. On to ball st/w mich. i have wmich -19. Current line is 11.5. They dwarf ball st in both s/p+ and f+. think i am confused by the public on ball st and a line move in their direction.

[Dexter]

Hey lta, my model while infantile in its development has the line fiu -6.5 plus hfa which in this case i applied 2.5 to make fiu a -9. My totals model has this one at 53.3 giving us 2 points of value to the under. Plus the fact that these tuesday night games have been favoring the under, i have a lean that way also. Any thoughts?

tuesday night games have historically gone under.

[Donnie Brasco]

tuesday night games have historically gone under.

Moved towrd the under last i looked

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I am so pissed I didnt jump on georgia tech at +4.5 or +4. Along with illinois, I love gt as an upset pick. I thought clemson money would push that one back up but instead sharp money keeps buying up gt. Fuk....i messed up by waiting. Now I need to pray we see +4 or more again....

[Love The Action]

Just can't catch a fuking break...did he even have possession of the ball? I sure hope not...man, this is huge...

[Love The Action]

17-7 cover to 20-17 loss in the blink of an eye...

[Love The Action]

I will have a play on the Uconn/Pitt total for Wednesday...waiting for the best number.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Really thought FIU was easy play when spread moved to -8 right before kickoff...

[Love The Action]

Well that sucked...four turnovers, one for a game changing touchdown, against a FIU team that had the advantage in turnover margin and was playing at home. Tough to cap mistakes lke that. Oh well, it wasn't a bad play. We bought -6 after it dropped from -6.5, and after we bought at that low price the line subsequently moved in our favor and closed at -7. That's a long term winning play regardless of outcome in this specific play.

[Dexter]

I will have a play on the Uconn/Pitt total for Wednesday...waiting for the best number.

if you're leaning under, you may not get better then whats out there now. 100% rain in the forecast and should be in the 40's by gametime. i went uconn and the under.

[YOUNGBUCK]

if you're leaning under, you may not get better then whats out there now. 100% rain in the forecast and should be in the 40's by gametime. i went uconn and the under.

Just read that too Dex wat u get under at?

[Dexter]

Just read that too Dex wat u get under at?

41.5...i would usually say wait till gameday for tv games as the over usually gets played. but i can see this going down hard b/c of the weather. i like the under regardless of the weather, so this is a bonus.

[Love The Action]

Really thought FIU was easy play when spread moved to -8 right before kickoff...

Me too Buck...FIU just makes too many mistakes, both mental and physical. Plus Massaquoi is a monster and has dominated the line of scrimmage.

The stats and line movement clearly pointed to FIU being the play tonight...anything can happen now that it's tied I guess, however, FIU seems to be a "poser" team this year with no ability to close.

I hope they prove me wrong...

[Love The Action]

Going to need a punt return TD or some other big play touchdown or FIU will play for the field goal...

[YOUNGBUCK]

Me too Buck...FIU just makes too many mistakes, both mental and physical. Plus Massaquoi is a monster and has dominated the line of scrimmage.

The stats and line movement clearly pointed to FIU being the play tonight...anything can happen now that it's tied I guess, however, FIU seems to be a "poser" team this year with no ability to close.

I hope they prove me wrong...

Yes tons of mistakes is always the problem w. these $hit bag schools they r like mental midgets

[Love The Action]

41.5...i would usually say wait till gameday for tv games as the over usually gets played. but i can see this going down hard b/c of the weather. i like the under regardless of the weather, so this is a bonus.

Pinny at -114 on the over right now at 41...I want to see what they juice if and when they move to 41.5. Many times, if Pinny is juicing over -108ish, one of my locals will move up a half point. In such a case, I could get 42. Although not anywhere near as important as 41, I would obviously rather have 42 than 41. We'll see how the line looks before I go to bed...Good luck

[Love The Action]

Yes tons of mistakes is always the problem w. these $hit bag schools they r like mental midgets

Did you see that punt

[YOUNGBUCK]

Did you see that punt

[alamo]

Troy misses FG in OT. Still got a chance here boys!

[Love The Action]

Going to need a miracle big play...otherwise, FIU will just play for the field goal.

[Love The Action]

Go for the touchdown Cristobal!!!!!

Throw that beeyatch in the endzone

[Love The Action]

Damn it...that sucked so bad...that fuking fumble recovery buried us.

[alamo]

Troy kicker must've had money on the Troy cover

Dont think you'll be seeing him on Sundays

[Love The Action]

Troy kicker must've had money on the Troy cover

Dont think you'll be seeing him on Sundays

Yeah right...

We had so many chances to win that game. Even on the final drive, if that running back just got one more yard for the first down, they would have kept on running the ball and he might have scored.

When are we going to get that fumble recovery that wins a game...I'm still waiting

[qbsafety8]

hate being on the opposite side of you, but love being on the winning side ! only 2 small winners for me tonight tho.

what u got on tomorrow??

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Good luck.

[Dexter]

if FIU scores a TD there in OT, do they kick the extra point?

[Love The Action]

if FIU scores a TD there in OT, do they kick the extra point?

I believe so....