LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Trivial]

I don't think it will get that bad Triv...it's still early and these offenses really suck. Without Graham, Pitt will struggle. UConn will make adjustments to Sunseri's scrambling and employ the use of a spy. I don't suspect that will be a problem going forward. At least it shouldn't be...GL

Thanks LTA. I feel better now. GL.

[Love The Action]

OK guys, I'm off to eat dinner with the fam and work on my NCAAF and NFL cards for this weekend. I'm also going to review the Tex/StL game 6 capping notes for a possible play now that my original wagers were cancelled. Got some decisions to make. I will check back in later. Hopefully, when I check back in things are looking good

[Trivial]

OK guys, I'm off to eat dinner with the fam and work on my NCAAF and NFL cards for this weekend. I'm also going to review the Tex/StL game 6 capping notes for a possible play now that my original wagers were cancelled. Got some decisions to make. I will check back in later. Hopefully, when I check back in things are looking good

Going to bed at half time. Here is hoping there is some majour rundown of the clock by Pitts in the second half.

[ManBearPig]

So the scenario we didn't want to play out played out and the under didn't stand a chance. I figured i had to bank on PIT scoring a lot of pts to cover or both shooting blanks...I chose shooting blanks...whoops. Oh well I had UCONN 2H so it made up for the lost on the under. Let's get em' tomorrow.

[Dexter]

do you guys know if hou/rice is televised on national tv? i see FSN is listed, but im not sure if thats just for texas.

[Love The Action]

Cant complain about any bad breaks in yesterdays game. That just turned out to be a bad play as we lost the game and got beat by the closer. We had been kilking closers only to lose about 8 plays over the last two weeks to bad beats. Yesterday was just a bad play. Usually, I'm up in units and those losses don't hurt. Unfortunately, that was not the case yesterday. But we never waver or worry. We put in the work and trust the process. We have a 2.5x play for tonight, so time to bounce back. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1x for total of 2x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

Wanted +5, but I'll take the +4 and happy to get it. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #3 for total of 2.5x on Rice/Houston over (70) (1x over (70)(-110) & 1.5x over (70)(-120)) (Locked)

I really think we see a ton of points tonight. Both teams have a rare national tv game and houston will do everything they can do to run up the score for bcs purposes. On the other side, rice has a solid spread offense that can put 3-4 tds on the board against a weak houston defense. I expect houston to score in the 50's and a minimum of 21 points from rice. I have this game at 74 so I'm going to roll with the 4 points of value and take the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Lean to miami tonight as well, but only at 14 or better.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Miami 13.5 15x

[Donnie Brasco]

What up Lta, my model has this game a little closer than advertised. I have -10.5 and my total right on at 48. My model also had 47 on game total last night but just couldnt pull trigger on over even tho line move said so. But anywho, i lean uva tonight also because miami is pulling all the bets but the line hasnt budged. Good luck in what u choose! If u have time, i had posted a question to you about how u figure in points with ur advanced stats? Later bro.

[Love The Action]

What up Lta, my model has this game a little closer than advertised. I have -10.5 and my total right on at 48. My model also had 47 on game total last night but just couldnt pull trigger on over even tho line move said so. But anywho, i lean uva tonight also because miami is pulling all the bets but the line hasnt budged. Good luck in what u choose! If u have time, i had posted a question to you about how u figure in points with ur advanced stats? Later bro.

Sorry I didnt get back to you sooner about your question. Unfortunately, I can't really give you the answer you are looking for. It would take up far too much time to explain the specific weighting system that I use in my model, plus that would not really help you as you are looking to develop your own model and not use someone else's metrics. Bottom line is that you need to prioritize the stats you feel are most important and then apply a value accordingly. I previously pointed you in the direction of some of the stats that I use. You may want to research which of those stats provide the biggest correlation to future success. Plus, there is no one way of doing things and what works or doesnt work for me, may be the exact opposite for you. As with many things in life, modeling is an ever-evolving process of trial and error. I am constantly tweaking all of my models, even my mlb model and nba models which have a long track record of success. I think the evolution of advanced football stats will only help us in in that sport. However, you should remember that in football, unlike baseball, you need to include subjective reasoning such as intangibles, scheduling, revenge, motivation, etc. Those must be included in a football model, but only you can decide how important they should be weighted. Believe me, you will teach yourself far more through the trial and error process than you ever could from me spoonfeeding you my valuations. Good luck bud

[Krazymojo]

LTA ive been noticing a fade in these Clemson games...any reason?

[Dexter]

do you guys know if hou/rice is televised on national tv? i see FSN is listed, but im not sure if thats just for texas.

anyone know? i have a stream but would rather watch on my 55inch

up to 73 LTA...closer destroyed

[Love The Action]

anyone know? i have a stream but would rather watch on my 55inch

up to 73 LTA...closer destroyed

Don't know about the stream...I'm going to try to watch the World Series...GL

[Love The Action]

LTA ive been noticing a fade in these Clemson games...any reason?

I don't know about anyone else fading Clemson, and that's not exactly what I'm doing here. I just think you are catching Georgia Tech at a great spot to either win outright or cover in a close game. They have never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +1 or +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play and put it closer to a PK. This is the same setup as my Illinois play except Illinois is not playing at home.

Most bets are on both Penn State and Clemson, despite great value on both Illinois and GT. I think both of those teams have a great shot at winning outright or at least covering.

Is Clemson one of those rare teams that runs the table? I say that answer is resounding NO!

GL

[Love The Action]

There was only a 30% chance of rain so I surely did not think it would be this bad...even though we got a quick 17, this really concerns me. If Houston's receivers can't run, make cuts and execute their pass-oriented offense, we could be in trouble.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not worried, I'm just saying. That rainy field is worthy of concern...

[Dexter]

There was only a 30% chance of rain so I surely did not think it would be this bad...even though we got a quick 17, this really concerns me. If Houston's receivers can't run, make cuts and execute their pass-oriented offense, we could be in trouble.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not worried, I'm just saying. That rainy field is worthy of concern...

[Love The Action]

Cash it!

[Trivial]

Nice hit tonight LTA. Regret not taking it. Any lean for tomorrow night? I am thinking TCU -13 but have not yet booked it.

[Redscot]

Cash it!

Nice hit bro. I got in just before game time and got scared off because it was at 73 , Houston put that up by themselves . Looking forward to a big weekend, will definitely have some questions for you this afternoon/evening.

[YouHave2outs]

checkin in. good look on that over. teased it with some stuff that hit. wish i would have just bet it straight too. keep it up man. best of luck today

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

Wanted +5, but I'll take the +4 and happy to get it. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

Wanted +5, but I'll take the +4 and happy to get it. Writeup to come. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[suicidekings]

I don't know about anyone else fading Clemson, and that's not exactly what I'm doing here. I just think you are catching Georgia Tech at a great spot to either win outright or cover in a close game. They have never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +1 or +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play and put it closer to a PK. This is the same setup as my Illinois play except Illinois is not playing at home.

Most bets are on both Penn State and Clemson, despite great value on both Illinois and GT. I think both of those teams have a great shot at winning outright or at least covering.

Is Clemson one of those rare teams that runs the table? I say that answer is resounding NO!

GL

This is a game where I totally understand where everyone is coming from on GTech as a situational play against a Clemson team (that will absolutely not go undefeated), but I disagree that the line is off. I make this game to be Clemson -5.5 for the game, but actually favour GTech for the first quarter/half. They like to push tempo early, whereas Clemson's strength comes from playing a very physical game, wearing down opponent's defenses and pushing tempo in the second half. I just played the YellowJackets 1H +1.5 (+101).

[YOUNGBUCK]

LTA I wanna big play on Illi but is it jus me or was that opening line odd

[og4667]

great writeups, good luck

[Redscot]

Ready to rock and roll my man! Time to put baseball behind us and start doing some damage with the pigskin! Had a busy week and now see that I have lost value on the majority of the plays so far . Illinois at 5 , K.St. 13 1/2, G.Tech 3, Baylor 80 1/2. Any of those lines I have give you pause LTA? Not thrilled about losing the 2 td's with K. St and would like at least 3 1/2 for G. Tech.........would you still ride these plays at my current numbers?

[Love The Action]

This is a game where I totally understand where everyone is coming from on GTech as a situational play against a Clemson team (that will absolutely not go undefeated), but I disagree that the line is off. I make this game to be Clemson -5.5 for the game, but actually favour GTech for the first quarter/half. They like to push tempo early, whereas Clemson's strength comes from playing a very physical game, wearing down opponent's defenses and pushing tempo in the second half. I just played the YellowJackets 1H +1.5 (+101).

Wow, that's an aggressive number for Clemson playing in a night game on the road in a tough environment. As you know, early money disagreed betting Clemson down from the -5 range to the -3 range. Now it's around -3.5.

The advanced efficiency stats are pretty similar between Clemson and GT, especially on offense. Obviously, Clemson has an advantage on defense. However, the triple option is a tough offense to defend for college kids because it requires a lot of discipline to stay with their assignments both on the run and pass. Plus, if Washington is on target to Stephen Hill, Clemson could have a long day.

Should be a good one. I'm pumped about this game. Hope you win your 1h wager. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

LTA I wanna big play on Illi but is it jus me or was that opening line odd

I wouldn't go big. Illinois is too inconsistent and if Penn State plays McGloin for the majority of the time, we could be in trouble. Much of my wager depends on the senility of Paterno. Why he continues that stupid qb rotion is beyond me...McGloin is clearly the better player. Nevertheless, all the news says the rotation continues so I really like Illinois. However, the stats are too close to go big and you never really know about this Illini team. There are better spots to go big today....what else do you like?

[Love The Action]

great writeups, good luck

[Love The Action]

Ready to rock and roll my man! Time to put baseball behind us and start doing some damage with the pigskin! Had a busy week and now see that I have lost value on the majority of the plays so far . Illinois at 5 , K.St. 13 1/2, G.Tech 3, Baylor 80 1/2. Any of those lines I have give you pause LTA? Not thrilled about losing the 2 td's with K. St and would like at least 3 1/2 for G. Tech.........would you still ride these plays at my current numbers?

On rare occasions I recommend buying the hook. I think getting a full +14 in that KState/OU game is key and would recommend you buy the hook or gamble that you can get +14 at some point today. Key numbers are everything in football and I would not make this wager but for the full 14 points.

Baylor over you should be ok...I think that one either hits 90 or stays way under in the 60 range.

I like Gtech a lot tonight. With that said, the number 4 is the 6th most important key number in NCAAF sides behind 3, 7, 10, 14 and 17. Try to at least cover the 3. Most books are at +3.5 right now, so maybe your guy will move. How often does he adjust lines...are you able to access them through a website or do you have to call in for the numbers?

[Redscot]

On rare occasions I recommend buying the hook. I think getting a full +14 in that KState/OU game is key and would recommend you buy the hook or gamble that you can get +14 at some point today. Key numbers are everything in football and I would not make this wager but for the full 14 points.

Baylor over you should be ok...I think that one either hits 90 or stays way under in the 60 range.

I like Gtech a lot tonight. With that said, the number 4 is the 6th most important key number in NCAAF sides behind 3, 7, 10, 14 and 17. Try to at least cover the 3. Most books are at +3.5 right now, so maybe your guy will move. How often does he adjust lines...are you able to access them through a website or do you have to call in for the numbers?

I have access to the numbers online so I can track them. He gets in late , but after 11 am or so he updates constantly so I guess I will take your suggestion on G. Tech and hope for 3 1/2. I will definitely buy the hook for K State if I can't get 14. On board for the rest of the day my man, let's have some fun and make some coin.

[Love The Action]

Would take Akron at +8 or better....opened at +10 and sharps hit it immediately. Unfortunately, I'm just getting to that game now. Not much value left at +7....

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 9

Play #1

Illinois (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

I have this one set at +4, so I will take the 2.5 points in value here. Bottom line, is that these two teams are pretty similar to each other in both mindset and stats. Both teams like to play classic Big Ten football predicated on the run and defense. They just do it in a different way. Illinois employs the spread offense with some read option with Scheelhaase, while Penn State uses a pro offense with two qb rotation. Why they don't give that job to McGloin is beyond me; just another maddening decision by Paterno. Actually, that is another reason why I am backing the Illini here. I am not a fan of Paterno and feel he needs to go. The program is suffering from him sticking around and all of the assistants are fighting for control while Paterno takes his cat naps and changes his diapers. Anyway, Penn State has a great defense, but they are not that far above Illinois in DFEI or S&P+. With Scheelhouse the better quarterback regardless of who plays for the Nittany Lions, I like Illinois on Saturday. Illinois is in a great situational spot here coming off two straight losses where their public perception has never been lower. Plus, coming off that killer Purdue loss where some fluke mistakes lost them the game, I expect Illinois to be ultra motivated to pull off the upset in Happy Valley. I'm rolling with Illinois for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Florida International (-6) 1x (Locked)

I backed FIU last week and I will here again, pretty much strictly on stats and this being a must-win situation. The line opened at 6.5 and I think 6 is the best this one is going to get. I don't see it dropping to 5.5 so I'm jumping on this now before sharp and public money drives this back up to 6.5 and maybe 7. Bottom line is that FIU is the superior team. Yes, Troy has revenge from last season's loss, but this is a must-win game for FIU to remotely retain a shot for the Sun Belt title. FIU dominates Troy in literally every statistical category including but not limited to offense, defense, special teams, turnovers, time of possession , field goal kicker, sacks, etc. This may be the "square" play, but the square play on a 6 point favorite, but it's the right play as long as we beat the closer. I have FIU set at -7.5, but they are playing at home after blowing a fourth quarter lead as the prime game on ESPN last Tuesday. They will not want to do that again and I read a couple stories about how the players use that loss as a bonding experience. I'm rolling with FIU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Houston over (70) 1x & over (70)(-120) 1.5x for total of 2.5x (Locked)

One of my locals opened at 70 and I bought the overimmediately for 1x. I went back to go bigger and the line had already moved to 70.5. Therefore, i bought the hook so I could have both units at the same number. I might add another unit, but dont want to pay -120 again. I have this one at 74 so I love the over here. Both offenses can score and both defenses suck. It's very important to get the best number on this play because there is so little margin for error on a total in the 70's. Therefore, I'm going to stick with 2x for now, but may add a unit for 3x in total before game time. Right now, I'm rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #4

Kansas State (+14) 1x (Locked)

While I know that OU is coming off a devastating loss and looking for revenge, I do not think they give KSU a beatdown today on the road. KSU and its crowd will be pumped beyond belief and this will be a big home field advantage. KSU's defense and ability to run the ball is the exact formula you need to cover against this OU team. KSU is very balanced and we all know about their ATS record as a dog. I tend to think OU is a bit deflated after last week's loss and this is not a good spot. I like KSU to cover the 14 points rather easily in a game they might lose, but that should be close. I'm rolling with KSU for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Georgia Tech (+4) 1x (Locked)

GT has never been undervalued more and we are getting +4 where the line should be closer to the +2 range based on stats alone. When you factor in (1) GT coming off two tough losses, (2) employing a complicated and difficult to stop offensive scheme and (3) playing at home with revenge from last year, I really love this play. The advanced stats are very similar and GT is a great situational play, so I'm rolling with Georgia Tech for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

UConn/Pitt under (42) 1x (Locked)

I love this play. I have this game set at 38.5 and may make this a 2x play but want to see what pinny does. They are currently juicing the over 41 at -118 rather than expose themselves on the under to the key number of 41. I can get 42 from my local that follows legends lines, so I think I'm safe in waiting. This game is a huge public over play despite a the football factors pointing under. The only concern is pitt's explosive running back graham. Otherwise, this should be a classic big east under between two solid defenses and struggling offenses. Both offenses want to be uptempo and explosive, but are in first year systems and dont have the horses. The quarterbacks are in the bottom 20 in terms of rating and are struggling to create touchdowns. Both teams are struggling with offensive line play and injuries. Pitt will be without their starting safety, but will have their stud linebacker back from injury. I think this game is a great public fade opportunity because everything points to the under, including both football factors and line movement. I'm rolling with the under for 1x now but might make this a 2x play later today. Good luck.

Play #7

Baylor/Oklahoma State over (80) 1x (Locked)

I could have gotten 79, but gambled on it dropping a bit and lost. I'll still take it 80 and not worry. I have it set at 83, so we're still getting a full three points of value. Even though OKST has a top ten defense in terms of FEI and S&P+, they are not a great scoring offense and that won't help against RGIII. On the other side, I expect Blackmon to play and play well even though he's dinged up. Whedon is a beast and Baylor's defense is weak. This one could easily hit 95 or more. I expect OKST to win based on their superior defense, but a 55-42 type game is what I expect. Lot's of work to do tonight, so I'll get back to it. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Arizona/Washington over (70) 1x (Locked)

We also have a field goal of value in this line as I have it set at 73. Both teams are top 10 OFEI teams and bottom 10 in DFEI. Even though Arizona has a top 30 S&P+ defense overall and against the pass, they are bottom ten in scoring defense along with Washington. Washington has really solid field goal kicking while Arizona's FG kicker sucks. However, AZ has a nice return game and they might just bust one. Even so, I expect both offense to be efficient based on those super OFEI rates. I expect a big time shootout in this game and might add a unit down the road. For now, I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Michigan State (+4.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm going against the sharp money who is betting on the situational letdown spot for MSU and I'm going to ride with the stats on this one. MSU betters Nebraska in almost every advanced statistical category. Whether its F/+, FEI or S&P+, MSU has the better offense and defense by a sizable margin. Plus, MSU has the better field goal kicker and quarterback. Those are keys in big games like this. With MSU leading the turnover margin by .43, I am going to buck the letdown spot and roll with the Spartans for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Like the Mich State play, I think they continue to roll rather than let down. Throwing a half unit on the ML as well here.