LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

As I stated above, half point moves in football are common and inconsequential. To me, that is just more value. Lets see where they close. Good luck tonight!

Know ur busy but just answer when u can. What type of margin do u consider consequential in terms of beating pinny on sides/totals? I agree 1/2 point moves can be meaningless but rare to see moves of more than a couple these days. Just curious, thanks and as always good luck!

[Love The Action]

Insane movement on rutgers, back to -1. I got on rutgers +2, i guess i beat pinny but who knows with the history on this one. Love that u, dex and the slimes lime rutgers under! On it! Love louisiana lafayette tomorrow. New coach has these kids tightened up this year! Check out the game and let me know what u think. Also looking for input on the irish if i have time. Like usc but the line move is against me!

I wont get to ULL until tomorrow, but will let you know. As far as nd/usc, you might not like my answer. I'm on ND in that one and it will be a play at 9 or less. I can get 9 now, but I might holf off to see if it drops. USC does not have the defense to keep up and nd has al the motivational angles. Good luck donnie!

[Trivial]

Fixed it...2x Triv! Lets get it

Thanks LTA. Best of luck. Got one unit at under 41, one unit at under 41.5.

[Love The Action]

Know ur busy but just answer when u can. What type of margin do u consider consequential in terms of beating pinny on sides/totals? I agree 1/2 point moves can be meaningless but rare to see moves of more than a couple these days. Just curious, thanks and as always good luck!

I always strive to beat the closer in every market. In football (nfl & ncaaf), however, you get more money wagered than any sport which means more back and forth moves. I start to get concerned if my wager loses 1-1.5 points of value in relation to the pinny closer. Therefore, if tonights under closes at 42 or more, I would consider my play at 41 a long term loser whether I cash or not. You also need to take into account key numbers. If you bet something at -7.5 and the line closes at -6.5, then that's a really bad bet because you lost to the closer, plus it crossed the key number of 7. That usually indicates you are on tbe opposite side of sharp money. GL.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

[suicidekings]

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

Agreed. I don't want to get too pumped up about this weekend after the horror of the last two weeks, but this is one of several games that I really like this week. So many situational factors in favour of the vastly superior and more athletic team is a nice combo. Good luck tonight.

[815Sox]

Like the Rutgers under tonight! Really appreciate the writeup as I am not much of a College FB guy, but like to play a game or two when I can. Might even include it on a parlay with a hockey game or two.

[Dexter]

I always strive to beat the closer in every market. In football (nfl & ncaaf), however, you get more money wagered than any sport which means more back and forth moves. I start to get concerned if my wager loses 1-1.5 points of value in relation to the pinny closer. Therefore, if tonights under closes at 42 or more, I would consider my play at 41 a long term loser whether I cash or not. You also need to take into account key numbers. If you bet something at -7.5 and the line closes at -6.5, then that's a really bad bet because you lost to the closer, plus it crossed the key number of 7. That usually indicates you are on tbe opposite side of sharp money. GL.

ive got 40 and already ripped up my ticket. pinny dropped to 39.5 last night and most all other shops still had 40 including my local.

it never fails. tv games go up on gameday, and i should have been patient.

[shocktopme]

ive got 40 and already ripped up my ticket. pinny dropped to 39.5 last night and most all other shops still had 40 including my local. it never fails. tv games go up on gameday, and i should have been patient.

I think the over is right Dex....

[Love The Action]

Just got home from dinner...yikes, WVU getting demolished huh...Rutgers just scored putting the game at 30 with 14 minutes left. Come one, after all the bad beats we deserve this one.

[Redscot]

Just got home from dinner...yikes, WVU getting demolished huh...Rutgers just scored putting the game at 30 with 14 minutes left. Come one, after all the bad beats we deserve this one.

Good call.

Now lets kill it today my man!

[Love The Action]

Good call.

Now lets kill it today my man!

We will

Good luck!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu
wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

Forgot to post this last night. Back later with writeup. Good luck.

[Redscot]

LTA, where you sitting with the Miami OH. Total bro? My local still sitting at 50 and it's moved up on most books a couple of points.

[Love The Action]

LTA, where you sitting with the Miami OH. Total bro? My local still sitting at 50 and it's moved up on most books a couple of points.

Looks pretty good....although it opened at 48.5 and sits at 52. That's a relatively big move past key numbers of 49 & 51. You can probably play it at 50, but not at 52. All the movement happened pretty quick on the 20th, so I bet that is a big service play if I had to guess.....

[Redscot]

Looks pretty good....although it opened at 48.5 and sits at 52. That's a relatively big move past key numbers of 49 & 51. You can probably play it at 50, but not at 52. All the movement happened pretty quick on the 20th, so I bet that is a big service play if I had to guess.....

You're right, I did some digging around and it turns out RAS put out:

SMU over 57
Miami O over 50
Kansas under 62
OKL St. over 69 1/2

On the day you mentioned. All have had significant moves except OKL ST.

[Love The Action]

You're right, I did some digging around and it turns out RAS put out:

SMU over 57
Miami O over 50
Kansas under 62
OKL St. over 69 1/2

On the day you mentioned. All have had significant moves except OKL ST.

Bam, called that one....

Well, I'm already on the OKST over and I got a better number, so I sure hope we hit that one.

I really considered the SMU/SoMiss over as well, however, SoMiss's defense is really pretty good once you start digging into the numbers.

I might have played the Miami/Tol over at 50, but not at 52

RAS is good, but I think a lot of people lose tailing him because they rarely get his numbers. If he releases something at 50 and you play 52, there is great chance he wins and you lose because 51 is the most important key total number in NCAAF. In such a case, you can't blame the RAS guy but the tailer doesn't have many options to get RAS numbers because of the big steam he usually generates.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)
This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

[Dexter]

LTA - what does your model have as the total in KState? dropped from 63 to 58 with no injuries or bad weather.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

LTA - what does your model have as the total in KState? dropped from 63 to 58 with no injuries or bad weather.

Another RAS totals play. Legends has 59 currently. I like the Under but think I'm staying away from the 59. I want 62 or higher.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)
This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA - what does your model have as the total in KState? dropped from 63 to 58 with no injuries or bad weather.

I have it at 60. No play for me either way. As someone said, that steam is RAS steam so consider that when thinking about the cause of that move. Kansas' defense is horrible and they can pass a little, but Kansas St. will employ the ground n pound in this game. I would actually side with RAS on this one and lean to the under, but I'm not going to take it at 58 or 59. Good luck in whatever you choose

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)
This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Northern Illinois/Buffalo over (62) 1x (Locked)

Last week was a big win for Northern Illinois and I don't expect a letdown today. With that said, however, Buffalo was shutout against Temple last week and I fully expect them to be very motivated to put on a good performance at home. As we know, NIU is not the best ATS team on the road and I think the better play in this game is the over. NIU has a great offense as shown by a top 25 ranking in OFEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. They are a great passing team that can also rush, but more than anything can score. They consistently ring up numbers in the 40's. On the other side, I would say Buffalo is a motivate dog in this one with a surprising offense. They are really not that bad and they will be going against a poor NIU defense ranked in the bottom third of all advanced defensive stats. On offense, Buffalo sports a very good 34th ranking overall in Rushing S&P+ efficiency and should be able to gash a weak NIU rushing defense who ranks 80th in the defensive category. I also expect Buffalo to put some points on the board through the air at home with the crowd (what crowd there is) behind them. I expect an NIU win, but for Buffalo to be an active dog today by scoring into the high 20's or low 30's against that weak NIU D. As long as NIU has an average offensive performance against this very weak Buffalo defense, this game should fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

OKST/Missouri over (69) 1x (Locked)

We have two great offenses going against two decent defenses. However, the offenses should shine. Both teams can run and pass, but more than anything they both like to play a fast pace. That should lead to a lot of possessions, plays and points. OKST will score with the best in the country, but they will also allow teams to score and keep them in the game. With Missouri playing at home and also having a solid offense, I expect them to match OKST score for score and for this game to fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa/Rice over (58) 1x (Locked)
This is one where I give past historical trends just a modicum of validity. These teams love to score when they play each other. My concern is the concussion of Rice's qb, but he has been cleared and that is good enough for me. Rice has a horrible defense and Tulsa has been able to score on some of the best defenses in the country because of their tough schedule. I don't expect Rice to give them much trouble. However, the Rice offense is actually underrated and the advanced stats like what they do. I expect Tulsa to hit the 40's and Rice to score in the high 20's and this game to also fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #6

Rutgers/Louisiville under (41) 2x (Locked)

I love this play and wanted to go bigger, but the small margin for error held me back. I have this game set at 37 so we getting 4 points of value on this once it hit 41 earlier today. I debated whether to wait for another half point of value, but I'm not convinced we get it and I couldnt take this for 2x at any number less than 41 because of that numbers importance as a key totals number. There is a reason this is the lowest total on the board and the under got hit right upon opening. You have two solid defenses, two poor offenses that like to eat up the clock and two freshman quarterbacks. Rutgers defense is actually one of the better defenses in the country and is ranked 2nd overall in DFEI which is an opponent adjusted efficiency stat which gives a great idea of this teams defensive mindset and abilities. One of my concerns is that rutgers is so good at takeaways that they might score on defense. However, I will take that chance. All together, Rutgers ranks 13th & 22nd in rushing and passing Def S&P+. On the other side, Louisville is no defensive slouch either with a 44 DFEI ranking and 51st Def S&P+ rank. The offenses are very poor ranked at the bottom of OFEI & Off S&P+ stats. Interestingly, however, rutgers ranks 4th in the country in time of possession while the cardinals are 33rd. That tells me that both offenses will employ conservative game plans to protect their freshman qb's and to avoid turnovers. This game will be about defense, clock management and game management in that both coaches will not ask too much out of their young qb's and call a conservative game plan. The bets are coming in very heavy on the over because of the small number, but we know better because even the kickers in this game might have trouble with rutgers ranked 66th in fg% while Louisville is at 88th. As long as we are not the victim of a special teams td or defensive td, I just dont see this one breaking 31 based on the strength of these defenses and offensive conservatism. Once this one hit the vitally importent key number of 41, I had to get on this one rather big. I expect a low scoring game and I'm rolling with the under for 2x. Good luck.

Play #7

West Virginia (-14) 1x (Locked)

I was waiting to see if this number woud drop, but I dont think it will and I have to get to dinner so I can't watch the lines any further. Bottom line is that wvu is the better team, with the better offense, defense and special teams. Even more important, however, is that wvu is playing with revenge on its mind from last years devastating home loss to syracuse and they also have motivation to run up the score for polling purposes. I think wvu wins easily and I'm rolling with the mountaineers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Notre Dame (-9) 1x (Locked)

The advanced stats love ND. They are in the top 10 of the country in both offense and defense. On top of that, they have all the motivation in the world to destroy USC and run up the score. Plus, they have had the bye week to prepare for this one. ND will have a serious home field advantage tonight and they are really rounding into form after some early season missteps. ND is the "sharp" (ugh, I hate those terms) play in this spot and I'm rolling with ND for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

North Carolina (+11) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this spread. I have NC at +8, so I will take the 3 point of value here. We have played NC as a favorite two weeks in a row and our faith was not rewarded. Let's give them a shot as dogs. Bottom line is that the FEI, F/+, S&P+ ratings all love NC and so does my model. Clemson is good, but this is a great motivational spot for NC coming off that ass-whooping they suffered at the hands of Miami. We are covering the key numbers of 3, 7 and 10, while also getting a push on the less important number of 11. I just don't see NC getting blown out two weeks in a row, especially against a team that they match up well against in Clemson. The advanced stats show that these teams are not that far apart and I expect NC to easily cover the 11 points. I'm rolling with the Tar Heels for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Wake Forest/Duke over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Usually, I try to avoid taking a number with a hook involved. However, in this case, there is very little chance that the final score ends with 60 because 59 and 61 are two of the more important key totals numbers for NCAAF. Once again, we have two teams with very solid offensive advanced FEI, F/+ and S&P+ offensive stats, but defensive numbers that are definitely lacking. Plus, much like the Tulas/Rice matchup, I do give just a little bit of credence to the team trends in this matchup which show a huge advantage to the over since Cutcliffe took over Duke's program. In fact, I even read an article which quoted the Wake Forest head coach in saying that he expects a high scoring game because both defenses struggle against the spread offenses employed by Wake and Duke. You know when the head coach publicly states that he thinks he can defend against the opposing team, that there is a good chance we will see some points. Both teams quick pace and poor defense should lead to a game that hits the 70's. I also have Duke as an active dog in this game which is another reason why I like the over here. Plus, with both teams struggling offensively last week in scoring under 20 points, I expect both offenses to come out strong this week and ready to establish themselves from the outset. I have this one at 63, but this one screams shootout and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #11

Northern Illinois/Buffalo over (62) 1x (Locked)

Last week was a big win for Northern Illinois and I don't expect a letdown today. With that said, however, Buffalo was shutout against Temple last week and I fully expect them to be very motivated to put on a good performance at home. As we know, NIU is not the best ATS team on the road and I think the better play in this game is the over. NIU has a great offense as shown by a top 25 ranking in OFEI and S&P+ offensive rankings. They are a great passing team that can also rush, but more than anything can score. They consistently ring up numbers in the 40's. On the other side, I would say Buffalo is a motivate dog in this one with a surprising offense. They are really not that bad and they will be going against a poor NIU defense ranked in the bottom third of all advanced defensive stats. On offense, Buffalo sports a very good 34th ranking overall in Rushing S&P+ efficiency and should be able to gash a weak NIU rushing defense who ranks 80th in the defensive category. I also expect Buffalo to put some points on the board through the air at home with the crowd (what crowd there is) behind them. I expect an NIU win, but for Buffalo to be an active dog today by scoring into the high 20's or low 30's against that weak NIU D. As long as NIU has an average offensive performance against this very weak Buffalo defense, this game should fly over the posted total. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #12

Toledo (-16.5) 1x (Locked)

This one has romp written all over it and I may add to my 1x stake later today and bring it up to 2x. You have a Toledo team that is ranked in the top 30 in most major advanced statistical categories, including OFEI, DFEI, OFF S&P+ and DEF S&P+ going against a Miami (OH) team that is ranked in the bottom 10 in those same categories. That is a huge disparity where Toledo can dominate the Red Birds in all three phases of the game, has the home field advantage and is playing with high motivation being big-time revenge from their loss lost year. I expect Toledo to keep the foot on the gas all the way through to the end in this one and win comfortably. I have Toledo at -20 and I would not be surprised to see them win by 28. I also lean to the over in this game, but feel the better play is on Toledo and I'm rolling the Rockets for 1x and maybe more later. Good luck.

Play #13

East Carolina/Navy over (65) 1x (Locked)

This one topped 100 points last season and while I don't think we see that same score today, I do think this one flies over 65. You have a Navy team who has a great offense and really, really bad defense against an inconsistent ECU team that could come out and put 40 points on the board just as easy that it could get shut out. However, because of the weakness in Navy's defense, I think ECU keeps up with Navy's scoring in this one. Because ECU is so poor against the rush, however, Navy will run all over this ECU defense en route to a game that tops 65. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

On each and every one with you today LTA, going big! GL bud .

[YOUNGBUCK]

Big card LTA bol fam!

[blackeyeshamus]

good luck today, LTA.
knock 'em dead!
stack 'em and cash 'em!
thanks for the hard work!
best of luck, big brother.

[Dexter]

did the navy total really open 59 @ pinny?

[lakerboy]

did the navy total really open 59 @ pinny?

hard to believe it jumped 5.5 off the bat

[Dexter]

hard to believe it jumped 5.5 off the bat

yeah, i made a play on the over but only b/c all others had a 64ish opener. i dont think thats right.

can see this closing at 67

[Krazymojo]

ughhh this is not looking good

[Love The Action]

I cannot catch a fuking break. Despite 5 fumbles and a pick, Buffalo scores with 15 seconds left make the score 31-30. All we needed was A FUKING EXTRA POINT to make the score 31-31 and ensure a cashing ticket. But no, on top of already missing a field goal, the fuking Buffalo kicker missed an easy extra point.

I mean come on... a fuking extra point. This after Missouri fumbles on the 1 yard line against OKST which cost us a winner in the OKST/Mis game (ended with a push) and after North Carolina fumles on a kickoff to blow that game open.

We fuking deserved to win the NIU game and the OKST game. I don't know what else to say I am so frustrated right now.

I mean, wtf. Can't we catch any breaks. Between last week and this week, that bad beats are killing me. Just fuking killing me.

Gotta keep focused...can't let this affect the rest the card but these bad breaks are unbelievable and have to fuking even out.

[Krazymojo]

need a couple big plays

[Redscot]

Tough breaks but lots of day left. Let's do it.

[upscope]

Wow!! Hard to believe this sh#t sometimes....I had 69.5 on the okst total which was a loser. That and the x-tra point miss w/ 23 sec to play and wow!! Just wow!!