LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Trivial]

Unbelievable. American College football - always a play that is just whacked in every game. You can advance the ball on a fumble, except 4th down? Whacked.

I rarely used to watch college football as a Canadian. Just recently started again. I was getting ready for an NFL lockout I guess. LOL.

[Love The Action]

The FIU defense helping us out early with an interception

FIU had a pretty solid advantage in both penalties and turnover differential...hopefully that proves true for the rest of the game and we can get some early points off this int...

[Trivial]

Well, we got 3 boys!


Help me understand. How is it decided in college football which hash marks (left or right) the ball is placed?

Thanks.

[Trivial]

Looking at live odds, FIU is +3.5 for -150. I feel a lot better now.

[Love The Action]

Well, we got 3 boys!


Help me understand. How is it decided in college football which hash marks (left or right) the ball is placed?

Thanks.

It's just where the last play ended. So if the previous play ended closest to the left hash, the ball is placed at the left hash and so on and so forth...

[suicidekings]

FIU had a pretty solid advantage in both penalties and turnover differential...hopefully that proves true for the rest of the game and we can get some early points off this int...

I rolled my 1H bet over into a play on ASU 2H -3. Aplin appears to have woken up and they're starting with the ball.

[Love The Action]

I rolled my 1H bet over into a play on ASU 2H -3. Aplin appears to have woken up and they're starting with the ball.

Not a bad bet on the home team, but I still think FIU covers...I am, however, worried about that missed field goal coming back to haunt FIU...

[Love The Action]

Looks like FIU just gave up. I was surprised by how fast and physical Arkansas State was. I had FIU pegged as the more athletic team, but the line play was dominated by Arkansas State. That is where advanced stats are inferior in football and watching games is much more valuable than in other sports. Got beat by the closer and on the field. Bad play all around...blah...

[suicidekings]

Looks like FIU just gave up. I was surprised by how fast and physical Arkansas State was. I had FIU pegged as the more athletic team, but the line play was dominated by Arkansas State. That is where advanced stats are inferior in football and watching games is much more valuable than in other sports. Got beat by the closer and on the field. Bad play all around...blah...

I'm feeling a strong week coming up in Week 8. Lots of good opportunities on the card and a few teams that are about to run into a brick wall. Let's get it done on Saturday

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011 Week 7

Play #1

FIU (+3)(+100) 1x (Locked)

FIU is the better statistical team that is fighting for its conference life in this game. I have read numerous articles which state that FIU's head coach Cristobal and the team is treating this game as a must win because a loss puts them at 1-2 in conference play. This is solid motivation for a statistically superior team. Everyone will point out that ArkSt passes for more yards per game than FIU and that is true. However, that is an irrelevant stat because it does not filter out meaningless plays in blowout situations or against inferior competition. That is why I prefer and base my model around advanced efficiency stats. If you look at FEI, S&P+ and F/+ scores, FIU has superior numbers across the board and almost identical numbers in passing efficiency. Moreover, Carroll has the better qb rating over Aplin by ten points. Because FIU is the better rushing team both offensively and defensively and because they are comparable in the passing game with a comparable pass defense, I have FIU set as a +1 road dog. I like the situational angles pointing toward FIU as well. When you factor in FIU's superior Massey and Sagarin ratings, I have to roll with FIU for 1x getting the 3 points at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Georgia Tech/Miami over (62) 2.5x (Locked)

This is my highest rated play of the season so far. I have this one set at a whopping 67 points, 5 points variance between my line and the posted number. There is a just a huge disparity in favor of the offense for both teams, while their defenses have struggled. After the Hurricane suspensions were over, Miami started playing very well on offense. They have now worked themselves up the ladder and actually are set as the number one team in the country in total offense FEI stats which are made up of various advanced efficiency criteria. Under the FEI umbrella you can look at such criteria as EX which measures plays over 10 yards, for which Miami is ranked 18th in the country; VD which measure the percentage of time they get at least to the opponent's 30 yard line and are ranked 33rd; OE or unadjusted raw efficiency not taking into opponent info which puts Miami at 28the overall; FD rate or the percentage of drives resulting in a first down/TD in which Miami ranks 20th and OSOS which measures the predicted efficiency against upcoming opponents putting Miami at 1st in the country in yet another stat. On the other side you have the formidable Georgia Tech offense who is ranked 17th in OFEI, 6th in OE, 8th in FD, 11th in AY, 14th in EX but only 64th in OSOS. Both teams are also in the upper echelon of S&P+ offensive efficiency rankings with GT at 14th in both passing and rushing and Miami ranked 12th and 26th respectively. Both of these superior and explosive offenses will be facing off against two of the weaker ACC defenses. Miami is at the bottom of defensive efficiency FEI and S&P+ stats while GT is middle of the road. While GT does play the pass better than the run, I think Miami's home field will be a huge advantage for them as the game progresses. GT on the other hand will be ready to roll after two subpar offensive performances in back to back weeks, especially after losing to Virginia. It will be peddle to the meddle all game against these weak D's. Plus, GT knows that they will need to start demolishing people and put up big scores to counteract the negative effects of last week's loss. I expect to see this one fly over the posted total, right into the 70's, so I'm taking the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

UCLA/Arizona over (61.5) 1x (Locked)

I also like UCLA +5.5 and am considering a teaser with UCLA and over. However, I really like the over. All overs are public plays and could be called "square" plays for the most part. However, just like I'm a big under player in NBA and MLB, I'm a big over player in NCAAF and NFL (although I also play my fair share of unders in football as well). However, in this game, you have a pretty simple concept of solid offenses going against shit defenses. The advanced stats tell the story in this one. Whether you want to look at S&P+ efficiency or FEI efficiency stats, they all have UCLA and Arizona in the upper echelon of offense and lower echelon of defense. UCLA is a great running team with Franklin leading the way, going against a team in Arizona who has had a great deal of difficulty stopping the run. Even in last year's matchup, Franklin ran all over this Arizona team (I remember because I had a big play on Arizona last year). In addition, just because Breuhout is out for UCLA, I actually like Prince as his replacement because of his added mobility. I really expect UCLA to add some additional running play wrinkles using Prince in the spread offense read option. With the threat of Franklin, this will cause problems for Arizona and lead to some big plays. On the other side, UCLA defense is just as porous and I expect Foles to play well with those athletic wideouts with or without Criner (who I have a feeling will play). This game opened at 61.5 or 62 depending on where you look and has not moved that much. However, the split of action on the total is just about dead even at this point so there really shouldn't have been much movement before now. However, I expect late money to come in hard on the over based on the number. If they had opened this game in the 50's, I would wonder why it was set so low. I have this game at 64, and I think we have a great shot at cashing because of the weakness of the defenses in relation to the strength of the offense. Getting 61.5 is so important because we cover on a final score of the key totals numbers of 63 and 64. I expect big plays and a final score with both teams in the 30's. I have this one with Arizona set at -3, so a play on UCLA with a superior running game may also be warranted. However, I feel stronger about the over and I'm going to roll that way for 1x. Good luck.

[Dexter]

what channel is this on?

[bfour]

ESPN at 6.

[Dexter]

ESPN at 6.

whats espn at 6? i have optimum/cablevision

[bfour]

ESPN is the channel. 6 is the time it starts. Where I live. Which I'm guessing is not where you live by your response, hahaha.

[pacocn]

Line jumped to 62.5 already

[bleedtoledo]

Back to 61.5 for me

[Dexter]

ESPN is the channel. 6 is the time it starts. Where I live. Which I'm guessing is not where you live by your response, hahaha.

my bad...i meant the central flor/uab game

[ram1502]

my bad...i meant the central flor/uab game

Sportssouth here in the Atl dex.

[Love The Action]

Anyone else having problems finding a line on Tulsa v. Rice on Saturday? The website for my local who follows Legends lines doesn't have that game on the board for some reason. My other local who follows 5d/Pinny lines has 58.5 for the total. I really want that 58 that Legends is hanging right now. I called customer service and they didn't know why it's not on the board. Anyone else having this problem. WTF.

[bleedtoledo]

Its at 58.5 on me local's site.

Good call on tonight's over. Arizona has almost hit for it themselves in just one half!

[Trivial]

Anyone else having problems finding a line on Tulsa v. Rice on Saturday? The website for my local who follows Legends lines doesn't have that game on the board for some reason. My other local who follows 5d/Pinny lines has 58.5 for the total. I really want that 58 that Legends is hanging right now. I called customer service and they didn't know why it's not on the board. Anyone else having this problem. WTF.

The Greek, Pinny, Bookmaker and 5 Dimes all have it at 58.5. I am not a member of Legends to know what is up with them. SBRODDS shows that Legends has (or at least had) a line.

[Love The Action]

The Greek, Pinny, Bookmaker and 5 Dimes all have it at 58.5. I am not a member of Legends to know what is up with them. SBRODDS shows that Legends has (or at least had) a line.

Yeah I know...I think it's just my local's online website that doesn't have it for some reason. My other local has it...I want to avoid that hook though if at all possible.

[Love The Action]

So are these guys really going to make us sweat out these last two TD's we need to cash....

[skidrow]

So are these guys really going to make us sweat out these last two TD's we need to cash....

lets get this!

[Love The Action]

Wow...these guys are really trying to make it tough on us...10 minutes left and we need a TD and some others need a TD and FG. Come on man...

[Love The Action]

Unfuking real...stopped on the one inch line at 4th and goal. Unfuking real.

[Krazymojo]

Unfuking real...stopped on the one inch line at 4th and goal. Unfuking real.

[Love The Action]

Got the safety Mojo...we got life. We just need UCLA to punch one in...come on!

[alamo]

Hold the front page - BIG SAFETY. That gives us a great chance still

[Love The Action]

Unreal personal foul on the five yard line pushes them all the way back...I don't know what I'm going to do if this doesn't cash.

[alamo]

Nice kick...Now just need one more FG. Plenty of time. Lets go ARZ

[Love The Action]

4 minutes left and we need 3 points. I just can't believe it's even come to this...

[Love The Action]

Nice kick...Now just need one more FG. Plenty of time. Lets go ARZ

Hopefully, they don't just try to run out the clock. I think UCLA will just let them if they get a couple first downs. Coaches don't like to rub it in this late. Even if they get close, they won't kick the field goal I don't think. We're going to need a miracle big play or for UCLA to get the ball back and score somehow. I hate to say it but I'm really worried. This sucks.

[Love The Action]

I seriously can't believe this. The baby and wife are sleeping, but I just want to fuking scream right now.