LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Krazymojo]

anyone else like TCU -5 and the over 56.5???

[Krazymojo]

Went 6-9 today = -3.9x for myself need a big day tomorrow

[Redscot]

Rough start and finish, solid in the middle. Some unusual games staying under. Almost had a big day with the Wongs going 4 out of 5 but Ohio - 2 /12 let me down so was pretty much a wash there. Thanks for you efforts LTA, can't win'em all, big NFL and MLB today .

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 6 Recap

5 - 8 = -4.7x

A very discouraging Saturday that we just have to forget and move on. Whether it was North Carolina allowing a touchdown with 40 seconds left to screw our cover in that game, or East Carolina and Memphis failing to score more than 3 points against two of the worst defenses in college football. This was just a very odd Saturday that I hope never repeats itself.

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

22 - 24 = -3.4x

We have now profited four of the first six weeks of the season, but the two weeks we lost, we ended up losing big. This is not at all where I wanted to be at this point, but there's nothing I can do about it now except work harder. I blame this poor record on my inability to find time for capping NCAAF earlier in the week. I need to start getting all of these NCAAF games capped and run through my model on Wed/Thu of each week, instead of Friday/Saturday. However, I just have not had the time with family, work and other sports markets in which I invest. I am going to try to adjust how I approach some things and baseball should stop taking up so much time. In addition, I am going to spend less time on this damn forum and more time working on the games. This week has really angered me and inspired me to invest more time to NCAAF.

[Love The Action]

LTA - I graduated from UGA and I've had season tickets for 13yrs. This is my team. That said, do you think the Dawgs roll into Neyland Saturday night and get a win.
There are two really good storylines in this game:
1) 10 year anniversary of the "hobnail boot." Greene to Haynes - playcall P44. It was Richt's first year and first big road win. It was a program changing type win.
2) Richt going for win #100

This game is not getting much love nationally, and understood, but it's a huge game and bigtime implications on the SEC East race.

Here is my game prediction:
This game really comes down to Vols offense vs Dawgs defense. Vols defense is simply outmatched in my mind. They have an under sized DL and very young LBs. FYI, Dawgs have the biggest offensive line in all of football (NCAA and NFL). I like both QBs in this game, and would probably give a slight edge to Bray bc he's playing at home. However, Vols have no running game and will be one dimensional in this game. Because the Dawgs will have success stopping whatever run game the Vols bring with its front 4, it should allow the Dawgs to be multiple in their pressures and coverages. The Dawgs have to get pressure. If they drop 6,7 guys in coverage without pressuring Bray, they will get picked apart up and down the field. The SEC is a hard league to win in when you are one dimensional and dont play very good defense. I expect the Vols to start fast on emotion and the Dawgs could struggle early in a hostile environment. But with a steady run game, the Dawgs should find a good balance and keep pace in the early stages of this game. It'll be a battle and will be decided in the 2nd half and despite the crowd at Neyland, Dawgs get more defensive stops that Vols and pull away. Prediction: Dawgs 38, Vols 20

Great call Silver! I wish you were right about the final score so the over would have hit, but at least you cashed that Georgia call rather easily. Good work

[darkenergy]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 6 Recap 5 - 8 = -4.7x A very discouraging Saturday that we just have to forget and move on. Whether it was North Carolina allowing a touchdown with 40 seconds left to screw our cover in that game, or East Carolina and Memphis failing to score more than 3 points against two of the worst defenses in college football. This was just a very odd Saturday that I hope never repeats itself. NCAAF Season 2011-2012 22 - 24 = -3.4x We have now profited four of the first six weeks of the season, but the two weeks we lost, we ended up losing big. This is not at all where I wanted to be at this point, but there's nothing I can do about it now except work harder. I blame this poor record on my inability to find time for capping NCAAF earlier in the week. I need to start getting all of these NCAAF games capped and run through my model on Wed/Thu of each week, instead of Friday/Saturday. However, I just have not had the time with family, work and other sports markets in which I invest. I am going to try to adjust how I approach some things and baseball should stop taking up so much time. In addition, I am going to spend less time on this damn forum and more time working on the games. This week has really angered me and inspired me to invest more time to NCAAF.

Best of luck on your readjustment process LTA.
When you want to run multiple sports like this, the only way you can do it is auto-pilot picks like Dexter's baseball system which require minimal time to come up with plays. Traditional handicaping would require too much time for a quality play.
Or just stick with whatever sport that you feel you know the most, OR reduce the number of plays per day. Easier to go for 1-0, than 3-0 right? and 2-1 is turn out earn less than 1-0 IMO.
So less plays, more time to cap a game, more time for you and yours.............and probably more money in your pocket. Win-Win situation.
Again, best of luck.

[Love The Action]

Best of luck on your readjustment process LTA.
When you want to run multiple sports like this, the only way you can do it is auto-pilot picks like Dexter's baseball system which require minimal time to come up with plays. Traditional handicaping would require too much time for a quality play.
Or just stick with whatever sport that you feel you know the most, OR reduce the number of plays per day. Easier to go for 1-0, than 3-0 right? and 2-1 is turn out earn less than 1-0 IMO.
So less plays, more time to cap a game, more time for you and yours.............and probably more money in your pocket. Win-Win situation.
Again, best of luck.

I highly disagree, but thanks for the well wishes...last week was just a bump in the road of a long season. No big deal....you cant win every week. I dont need to change my overall process, I just need to run my model earlier in the week so I can spot soft lines before all the value is gone. Plus, even though dex does great, I'm not a "system" guy. As a professional, the last thing you do after one unprofitable week is change a historically successful approch...that is nothing more than an unjustified overreaction and is something unprepared dart throwers do. It was just one week bud...no need to overreact, Good luck this week!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

[MasterEOD]

LTA,
I hope your NCAAF is good as your MLB. I am tailing all the way on this one. I was actually thinking the same thing after watching the Cal game last week. GL to us all....

[bfour]

Like it. I live in SF and can tell you Cal is going to have no home field advantage playing in AT&T Park.

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

[BigBoi]

LTA whats ur lean in SD St and AF?

[kingsr]

Damn it! I'm on the other side, I might buy out and eat the juice! All of a sudden I don't feel so good about my play

[alamo]

Like the USC play LTA. GOOD LUCK

[BigBoi]

Cal has not beaten USC since 2003. Last season, USC was a two point favorite and won in a route 48-14. I think the best player on the field for either team will be on Cal in Keenan Allen but I think Barkley gets it done.

[Love The Action]

Cal has not beaten USC since 2003. Last season, USC was a two point favorite and won in a route 48-14. I think the best player on the field for either team will be on Cal in Keenan Allen but I think Barkley gets it done.

Agreed on your analysis...allen is all cal has but he is a beast. Usc still covers in a close game. GL

[Ca$hfloW]

LTA I love your threads and insight and thanks for spending time with all of this. I was thinking the other side on this one because of the thursday night game and cal being at home getting points. There is heavy betting on USC to cover (66%) and I just have a gut feeling that this will be a game where the books clean up and make alot of money. In these thursday night games its pretty hard to go against the home team getting points IMHO but i just wanted to get some more input from you before i pull the triger (if i do). I was thinking that just staying away from this game might be smart for me.

What are your thoughts on San Diego St. +7 vs. an Air Force? A team that has lost to TCU who is not the team they used to be and to Notre Dame who beat them down, as well as almost loosing to navy. This might just seem like the obvious pick to me because I had Air Force +14.5 last week and I didnt get the cover but I think that SDSU getting 7 points is pretty generous, am I wrong?

Thanks and BOL

[ram1502]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

At first glance, and on paper mind you, USC looks like the glaring pick. However, alot of this public perception of cal is inherently based on cal's (maynard's) performance last week against a very good team last week on national tv. Reading articles, Maynard was beat up last week with a thigh contusion and he just couldn't make all the throws with the umph and accuracy he needed. He is now back to 100% and is ready. I expect Maynard & Allen to have big nights against USC's overrated defense. Cal has a good defense and barring several 40+ yard runs, cal's d did very well against oregon's very powerful offense. USC obviously doesn't present the running game that Oregon did last week and I expect cal's dbs/safeties to keep Barkley in check for the most part. I think this line is a classic public perception line. This sets up for a cal cover/straight up win IMHO. As always I respect your opinion and take on the weeks card, but I must respectfully disagree with this side. Good luck with the remainder of your card sir, and keep killing it in baseball! I look forward to the rest of your picks.

[Love The Action]

LTA I love your threads and insight and thanks for spending time with all of this. I was thinking the other side on this one because of the thursday night game and cal being at home getting points. There is heavy betting on USC to cover (66%) and I just have a gut feeling that this will be a game where the books clean up and make alot of money. In these thursday night games its pretty hard to go against the home team getting points IMHO but i just wanted to get some more input from you before i pull the triger (if i do). I was thinking that just staying away from this game might be smart for me.

What are your thoughts on San Diego St. +7 vs. an Air Force? A team that has lost to TCU who is not the team they used to be and to Notre Dame who beat them down, as well as almost loosing to navy. This might just seem like the obvious pick to me because I had Air Force +14.5 last week and I didnt get the cover but I think that SDSU getting 7 points is pretty generous, am I wrong?

Thanks and BOL

Good luck bud, but not sure what you expect me to say. You gotta do what you gotta do. I'm on usc and I think they cover, but you gotta make your own decision. All the vegas boogie man trap stuff is just bs in my mind. Sure, cal can win just like any team can win on any given day. However, its not going to be because a certain percentage of bets is on usc and the vegas boogie man pushes the secret button that causes cal to win. That is outdated and silly thinking in my opinion. You should cap the game and then take who has the highest probability of covering when compared to the posted number irespective of all the public trap game bs. My model likes usc and so do I. I have usc winning this game by 6 points and I'm getting -3 so I'm taking it because my model and capping says usc has a better probability of a wining cover than the current posted number thereby giving me value on usc. I dont worry about the vegas boogie man...if cal wins it if because they were the better team on this thursday.

I have air force at -6 so I would say that vegas' number is pretty accurate on that one. Maybe there is a little value on sdst, but not enough to take imho. Air force has the better offense and home field advantage, while sdst has the better D. I will say that sdst is much better against the run from an advanced efficiency stat standpoint even though conventional stats say otherwise so that may give you a little edge against those air force backers who just blindly look at total yards allowed.

I have no opinion on the totals tonight...both of those numbers look accurate

Good luck and stay away from the vegas boogie man

[Love The Action]

At first glance, and on paper mind you, USC looks like the glaring pick. However, alot of this public perception of cal is inherently based on cal's (maynard's) performance last week against a very good team last week on national tv. Reading articles, Maynard was beat up last week with a thigh contusion and he just couldn't make all the throws with the umph and accuracy he needed. He is now back to 100% and is ready. I expect Maynard & Allen to have big nights against USC's overrated defense. Cal has a good defense and barring several 40+ yard runs, cal's d did very well against oregon's very powerful offense. USC obviously doesn't present the running game that Oregon did last week and I expect cal's dbs/safeties to keep Barkley in check for the most part. I think this line is a classic public perception line. This sets up for a cal cover/straight up win IMHO. As always I respect your opinion and take on the weeks card, but I must respectfully disagree with this side. Good luck with the remainder of your card sir, and keep killing it in baseball! I look forward to the rest of your picks.

Good luck bud...i actually agree with some of your analysis. As I said in my writeup, I dont see usc running away with this one but they should win by at least 6. Usc's defense is not that much worse than cal when you look at the advanced stats and i believe they are faster than cal. Maynard is not bad, but he is just not in Barkleys category. Furthermore, cal is not going to have the home field advantage like they normally would because this one will be played at at&t in sf.

Lets agree to disagree...if anything cal should be favored in this one and the fact that they are getting points shows vegas wants cal money....see how easy it is to turn stuff around when playing line movement/vegas headgames. As I said above, just cap the game and roll with the value...i have the value on usc especially with this game away from cals home turf. Good luck

[Seaton420]

ALOT of cappers on here see line movement and believe the vegas boogieman is gonna push the button! alot! and i never understood it either. They think its like the Buffalo Wild Wings commercial where the guy pushes a button a a sprinkler pops out and trips a defender. true & funny post.

[ram1502]

Good luck bud...i actually agree with some of your analysis. As I said in my writeup, I dont see usc running away with this one but they should win by at least 6. Usc's defense is not that much worse than cal when you look at the advanced stats and i believe they are faster than cal. Maynard is not bad, but he is just not in Barkleys category. Furthermore, cal is not going to have the home field advantage like they normally would because this one will be played at at&t in sf.

Lets agree to disagree...if anything cal should be favored in this one and the fact that they are getting points shows vegas wants cal money....see how easy it is to turn stuff around when playing line movement/vegas headgames. As I said above, just cap the game and roll with the value...i have the value on usc especially with this game away from cals home turf. Good luck

We will agree to disagree. Cheers pal.

[Love The Action]

We will agree to disagree. Cheers pal.

Good luck!

[pacocn]

Usc has had 10 days to prepare for this one,
i think they get it done. I like Usc in this one as well.

[Love The Action]

Usc has had 10 days to prepare for this one,
i think they get it done. I like Usc in this one as well.

Lets get it pac!

[pacocn]

Line is at -3.5 now

[Slykry]

Maynard...when I saw him last week...I have not watched him enough to know if its just his normal throwing motion/body action but when he would need really fire one in there he would completely turn his head and have his head oriented as far opposite from the angle of the throw as possible. That tells me that he was having to put his whole body...even his head...into his throws when he wanted to really put the mustard on them...

Now I don't know if he is just that weak or if he was injured and thats what he had to do to get the throw there as fast as possible...but the kid just looked frail ....very weak and frail is what that body language said to me...

Anyone else watch him in a bunch of his games and can confirm that is his is normal throwing action??

[Lunatikz]

Lets hit it this tonight like we did on Monday

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 7

Play #1

USC (-3) 1x (Locked)

I watched the Cal/Oregon game last week and I was not particularly impressed with the Golden Bears. While they do play hard and are a well coached team, I'm not so sure they can hang with Barkley and the Trojans who I have set as -6 favorites. USC is has the better advanced efficiency rankings overall and offensively with comparable defensive ratings. However, I think this play comes down to quarterback where I think some of Maynard's stats are deceiving. Based on what I saw last week, this guy is not in Barkley's league and I expect that to make the difference down the stretch. Maynard is inconsistent and inaccurate and overall QB rating does not even compare to Barkley who is ranked 8th in the nation. Nevertheless, Cal is a good team, probably better coached and more disciplined with a better turnover margin than USC. However, the talent goes to USC and I expect that talent to rise to the top on Thursday. I'm rolling with USC minus the points for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Central Florida (+4) 1x (Locked)

This number is available at legends, otherwise I would also take 3.5 if you can't get 4. I have this game close to a pk so we are getting quite a bit of value at +4. I think this number is based on cf's troubles on the road and smu's winning streak, including an overtime win over tcu last week. However, I think that win provides a nice little letdown spot here against a team whose advanced stats better that of smu. CF is higher ranked in overall FEI efficiency, S&P ratings and F/+ scores. In addition, CF has comparable S&P+ offensive rankings and far superior S&P+ defensive rankings where CF is 7th in the country overall and smu is 51st. Smu is getting the nod from oddsmakers because of some blowout wins and Sangarin ratings which put smu at 42 in the country and CF at 65. However, had CF beaten byu in a game they should have won a few weeks back, those rankings would be much closer. I think CF and Godfrey have learned from past mistakes on the road and as long as they avoid mental mistakes and turnovers, I would not be surprised to see an outright win on Sat. I think we are getting some nice value on CF because the public is very high on smu after that tcu win and that gives us great opportunity in this spot to back the dog past the key number of 3. I'm rolling with CF for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

USC looking good at the half...let's hope they can keep it up.

[Zzapper]

USC is a lock

[Love The Action]

USC is a lock

The "L" word is forbidden in this thread my friend...let's just say they are looking ok...

[Redscot]

That was a nice stress free win. Nice job my man, looking forward to a big Saturday in NCAA

[Lunatikz]

Good job last night!
Any plays for tonight?

[pacocn]

Lta, Nice work man

[MasterEOD]

Nice work LTA...keep it up brother...