LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

Really like the Wake Forest/Clemson over and Wyoming/Air Force over, but the Clemson game is up to 63 from 60 and I think there are 40mph winds at Colorado Springs for the Air Force game. Anyone live near the Air Force game? What's up with that wind...

[Love The Action]

Damn...that Wisky line just got me...I was about to lock them in at 27.5, went to check out a few more things, looked back at the line 5 minutes later and it was up to 29. I just can't bet them above 28....damn.

[ebbearsfb1]

Really like the Wake Forest/Clemson over and Wyoming/Air Force over, but the Clemson game is up to 63 from 60 and I think there are 40mph winds at Colorado Springs for the Air Force game. Anyone live near the Air Force game? What's up with that wind...

just my take the wind shouldnt be a factor since air force runs the ball alot, a real lot lol..

[rcjiii]

Lta, no action on kent state today?

[Love The Action]

just my take the wind shouldnt be a factor since air force runs the ball alot, a real lot lol..

I know, but the wind still makes a difference when it comes to play action pass for Air Force, the pass in general for Wyoming and special teams (i.e. field goal kicking and punting). GL

[Love The Action]

Lta, no action on kent state today?

Lean to the under more than the side, but no play at anything under 41.

I also like Kent State, but their offense is a different animal on the road and even though I expect their defense to dominate, I don't like them at anything over -3.

Good luck in whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) PUSH

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)WINNER

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x LOSS

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

Play #6

Georgia Tech (+2) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I'll take the bait. As I stated above, I have this one at -2, so I'm just getting too much value at this number to pass up. There's no way this one hits 3, so I actually think we see a closer around +1 as these +2's get bought up before kick. I just think these teams are closer in many categories than the line reflects. Most of my thoughts on this game can be seen above and I have to go feed the baby, so I will just say that I love GT and the over in this game, I've already locked in the over and a teaser with GT and the over, so I'm going to finalize the trifecta and roll with GT plus the points at home for 1x. Good luck .

Play #7

Texas Tech/OKST over (78) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

USF (-2.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #9

NC State/Boston College under (45.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #10

Florida/South Carolina under (41) 1x (Locked)

Play #11

Pittsburgh/Louisville under (45) 1x (Locked)

Play #12

Kentucky/Vanderbilt under (45) 1x (Locked)

Play #13

Washington/USC over (63) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[ebbearsfb1]

come oklahoma state need 3 more tds

[ebbearsfb1]

2 more tds

[SlickRick1382]

Lean to the under more than the side, but no play at anything under 41. I also like Kent State, but their offense is a different animal on the road and even though I expect their defense to dominate, I don't like them at anything over -3. Good luck in whatever you choose.

Good call on all of those unders today. Looks like all but perhaps the Vanderbilt may cash. Unfortunately was helping the gf prep for her GMAT's and wasn't able to tail you on any but glad you're having a good day after a some tough losses / pushes earlier in the week. Congrats on the good start this afternoon and hope it continues through the night

[upscope]

Good call on all of those unders today. Looks like all but perhaps the Vanderbilt may cash. Unfortunately was helping the gf prep for her GMAT's and wasn't able to tail you on any but glad you're having a good day after a some tough losses / pushes earlier in the week. Congrats on the good start this afternoon and hope it continues through the night

Little premature isn't it?? Have you seen what's been happening the last 4-5 weeks in these games?? been in this spot about 15 times & have lost like 12 of em. I'll congratulate on a good start when the clock says 0:00 not in the 3rd Q

[upscope]

2 more tds

One more TD w/ 11:00+ to play.....& for some reason I'm holding my breath on this one

[upscope]

First & goal from the one

[Dexter]

First & goal from the one

chop block pushed them back 15, and turnover on downs.

im sick right now. and they threw for the TD on 4th and goal from the 8.

the RB couldnt score on the long run...had to get pulled down at the 2

[SlickRick1382]

Little premature isn't it?? Have you seen what's been happening the last 4-5 weeks in these games?? been in this spot about 15 times & have lost like 12 of em. I'll congratulate on a good start when the clock says 0:00 not in the 3rd Q

They were all mid to late in the 4th quarter and not even close to the total. I have seen what's been happening since I've also bet those ridiculous games but I'm pretty confident they'll hit as I mentioned hence why I congratulated. If they don't hit then you can come crucify me later. For now enjoy the game and stop being a downer.

[upscope]

First & goal from the one

lololololololololololololololol

**** this shit

[upscope]

They were all mid to late in the 4th quarter and not even close to the total. I have seen what's been happening since I've also bet those ridiculous games but I'm pretty confident they'll hit as I mentioned hence why I congratulated. If they don't hit then you can come crucify me later. For now enjoy the game and stop being a downer.

They're all mid to late 4th now. Fifteen minutes ago when you congratulated they were all late 3rd early 4th. Can't help to be a downer when you've been losing in this exact scenario @ an 80% clip. When the clock say's 0:00 I'll count my $$. Have you seen what's going on in this OK St game?? That's why I don't jump the gun.

[upscope]

How the fk do we lose the Ok St game?????????? Need ONE TD in an entire Q in a game that has seen 72 points scored. Even have a 1st & goal from the 2 w/ 7+min to play & still can't get it in?? How many fkin times in a row can that shit possibly happen??

[SlickRick1382]

They're all mid to late 4th now. Fifteen minutes ago when you congratulated they were all late 3rd early 4th. Can't help to be a downer when you've been losing in this exact scenario @ an 80% clip. When the clock say's 0:00 I'll count my $$. Have you seen what's going on in this OK St game?? That's why I don't jump the gun.

I did see what was going on. I didn't mention that game in my congrats. Just the unders that looked good. I know how you feel since it's been happening to me as well. We've all been suffering some excruciating losses. Wish you the best for the rest of the day and hope you cash in later. Sorry if you felt as if it was a jinx or anything. Not my intention. I like for everyone to win.

[upscope]

I didn't think of it as a jinx @ all....I was just making a point that some really bizarre crap has been happening late in games recently & it's got to the point where I actually expect to lose when my team has 1st & goal from the 2 & all I need is for them to punch it in. GL

[Donnie Brasco]

Terrible start to the day:
Texas -1.5

[Donnie Brasco]

Here we go again:
Texas -1.5 2x, -2.2 units
Nebraska -2.5 2x, +2 units
Iowa +2 1x, -1.1 units
Purdue +7.5 1x, +1 units
2-2, -.3 units

[Donnie Brasco]

Adding utah -7, good luck

[ebbearsfb1]

dont feel bad being 2-2... im 1-5 lost clemson over, and ok state over... brutal stuff.

now i got kansas state over and a&m and washington usc..

probably lose each of them by a point

[Sweatyguido]

2-7 here BAH!

[ebbearsfb1]

im looking at 1-7..worse day of the year

[SlickRick1382]

Adding utah -7, good luck

Took the over on that game (52). Although I heard something about the weather after my bet and regretted it. Made the mistake of not covering all my basis. Anyone have thoughts on Bama later tonight? After their inept offensive performance do you think they come out scoring vs Ole Miss?

[Love The Action]

How the fk do we lose the Ok St game?????????? Need ONE TD in an entire Q in a game that has seen 72 points scored. Even have a 1st & goal from the 2 w/ 7+min to play & still can't get it in?? How many fkin times in a row can that shit possibly happen??

It's unreal bud. Think of how huge the money swing is for our NCAAF record if we hit even half of the bad beats we have suffered in the last month or so. Variance is clearly on our side and these breaks have to start falling our way, but I've said that for awhile now and it seems like we keep treading water because of these bad beats. Even though I'm up a small amount on the week so far, think how much more we would be up on the week if the NIU over and OKST over cashed (8-3 +6x versus 6-5 +1x) -- both only needed 7 points with 10 minutes left in the game making them clear +EV plays but neither cashed. Those games cash over 75% of the time, yet we got the old screw job. There's really no point in playing the "what if" game, but that does highlight the importance of money management. We just need to keep treading water because we are due for a BIG week where we go 14-2 or thereabouts. Just hang in there....the gambling gods owe us big time.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) PUSH

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)WINNER

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x LOSS

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

Play #6

Georgia Tech (+2) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I'll take the bait. As I stated above, I have this one at -2, so I'm just getting too much value at this number to pass up. There's no way this one hits 3, so I actually think we see a closer around +1 as these +2's get bought up before kick. I just think these teams are closer in many categories than the line reflects. Most of my thoughts on this game can be seen above and I have to go feed the baby, so I will just say that I love GT and the over in this game, I've already locked in the over and a teaser with GT and the over, so I'm going to finalize the trifecta and roll with GT plus the points at home for 1x. Good luck .

Play #7

Texas Tech/OKST over (78) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #8

USF (-2.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #9

NC State/Boston College under (45.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #10

Florida/South Carolina under (41) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #11

Pittsburgh/Louisville under (45) 1x (Locked)WINNER

Play #12

Kentucky/Vanderbilt under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #13

Washington/USC over (63) 1x (Locked)

Play #14

Oregon/Stanford under (71) 1x (Locked)

I can certainly understand why people like the over in this game, however, I think people are overlooking (1) Stanford's running game and (2) both teams' defenses. I thoroughly expect that Stanford employs a ball control, run oriented offense today in order to rest their defense and keep Oregon's offense off the field. This one opened up at 66 and was bet up to 71 throughout the week. I have this game set at 67 so I thought the opening number was pretty accurate. However, at 71, I have to take the value on the under. Over 79% of all bets are coming in on the over in this game, which will probably have the biggest handle of all the NCAAF games this week for the books. Therefore, it's pretty obvious that the books are going to "need" the under here. I like being on the same side as the books in this prime time game where the overwhelming majority likes the over. Oregon has a defense that is top 10 in F/+, FEI and S&P+ ratings, whereas Stanford is top 25 in most advanced defensive categories. I think that goes a long way tonight. Everyone will be expecting an Andrew Luck showcase, but I think Stanford will be looking to showcase that stable of running backs and keep the ball moving on the ground in order to grind out first downs and limit the effectiveness of Oregon's no-huddle fast-paced offense. Even though we'll probably have to sweat this one out, don't be surprised if you see a repeat of last year's Auburn/Oregon National Championship game where defense ruled. I expect the same sort of game tonight and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Overbettor]

I was thinking over all week but have to roll with you on this after the day ive had. My guy has it at 69 though.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) PUSH

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)WINNER

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x LOSS

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

Play #6

Georgia Tech (+2) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I'll take the bait. As I stated above, I have this one at -2, so I'm just getting too much value at this number to pass up. There's no way this one hits 3, so I actually think we see a closer around +1 as these +2's get bought up before kick. I just think these teams are closer in many categories than the line reflects. Most of my thoughts on this game can be seen above and I have to go feed the baby, so I will just say that I love GT and the over in this game, I've already locked in the over and a teaser with GT and the over, so I'm going to finalize the trifecta and roll with GT plus the points at home for 1x. Good luck .

Play #7

Texas Tech/OKST over (78) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #8

USF (-2.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #9

NC State/Boston College under (45.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #10

Florida/South Carolina under (41) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #11

Pittsburgh/Louisville under (45) 1x (Locked)WINNER

Play #12

Kentucky/Vanderbilt under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #13

Washington/USC over (63) 1x (Locked)

Play #14

Oregon/Stanford under (71) 1x (Locked)

I can certainly understand why people like the over in this game, however, I think people are overlooking (1) Stanford's running game and (2) both teams' defenses. I thoroughly expect that Stanford employs a ball control, run oriented offense today in order to rest their defense and keep Oregon's offense off the field. This one opened up at 66 and was bet up to 71 throughout the week. I have this game set at 67 so I thought the opening number was pretty accurate. However, at 71, I have to take the value on the under. Over 79% of all bets are coming in on the over in this game, which will probably have the biggest handle of all the NCAAF games this week for the books. Therefore, it's pretty obvious that the books are going to "need" the under here. I like being on the same side as the books in this prime time game where the overwhelming majority likes the over. Oregon has a defense that is top 10 in F/+, FEI and S&P+ ratings, whereas Stanford is top 25 in most advanced defensive categories. I think that goes a long way tonight. Everyone will be expecting an Andrew Luck showcase, but I think Stanford will be looking to showcase that stable of running backs and keep the ball moving on the ground in order to grind out first downs and limit the effectiveness of Oregon's no-huddle fast-paced offense. Even though we'll probably have to sweat this one out, don't be surprised if you see a repeat of last year's Auburn/Oregon National Championship game where defense ruled. I expect the same sort of game tonight and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Idaho/BYU under (47) 1x (Locked)

There is a lot of value on the under in general across today's board and I'm going to take advantage of it. I have this game set at 44 and I am happy getting the 47. You have two tough defensive squads going against weaker offenses. This one opened at 47 and has dropped to 46.5 with a juiced under at Pinny despite 80% of all bets on the over. This is another low total under for NCAAF, but there's a reason this game is set so low. I really like Idaho to put up a fight via a strong defensive effort and both teams to lean on the run. Neither team has a great field goal kicker and BYU loves to chew up the clock, while Idaho's defense has put up solid numbers despite the ineptness of the Idaho offense. I expect a grind it out type game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[ebbearsfb1]

Lta I've been waiting years for variance to correct it self...I must be the jink... good luck not play under stanford probably be 3 0. Lol

[Love The Action]

HUGE steam in the NMexSt/Fresno State over if you're into chasing steam. I lean to the over in that one, but only at 63 or less and it's up to 67.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) PUSH

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)WINNER

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x LOSS

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

Play #6

Georgia Tech (+2) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I'll take the bait. As I stated above, I have this one at -2, so I'm just getting too much value at this number to pass up. There's no way this one hits 3, so I actually think we see a closer around +1 as these +2's get bought up before kick. I just think these teams are closer in many categories than the line reflects. Most of my thoughts on this game can be seen above and I have to go feed the baby, so I will just say that I love GT and the over in this game, I've already locked in the over and a teaser with GT and the over, so I'm going to finalize the trifecta and roll with GT plus the points at home for 1x. Good luck .

Play #7

Texas Tech/OKST over (78) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #8

USF (-2.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #9

NC State/Boston College under (45.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #10

Florida/South Carolina under (41) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #11

Pittsburgh/Louisville under (45) 1x (Locked)WINNER

Play #12

Kentucky/Vanderbilt under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #13

Washington/USC over (63) 1x (Locked)

Play #14

Oregon/Stanford under (71) 1x (Locked)

I can certainly understand why people like the over in this game, however, I think people are overlooking (1) Stanford's running game and (2) both teams' defenses. I thoroughly expect that Stanford employs a ball control, run oriented offense today in order to rest their defense and keep Oregon's offense off the field. This one opened up at 66 and was bet up to 71 throughout the week. I have this game set at 67 so I thought the opening number was pretty accurate. However, at 71, I have to take the value on the under. Over 79% of all bets are coming in on the over in this game, which will probably have the biggest handle of all the NCAAF games this week for the books. Therefore, it's pretty obvious that the books are going to "need" the under here. I like being on the same side as the books in this prime time game where the overwhelming majority likes the over. Oregon has a defense that is top 10 in F/+, FEI and S&P+ ratings, whereas Stanford is top 25 in most advanced defensive categories. I think that goes a long way tonight. Everyone will be expecting an Andrew Luck showcase, but I think Stanford will be looking to showcase that stable of running backs and keep the ball moving on the ground in order to grind out first downs and limit the effectiveness of Oregon's no-huddle fast-paced offense. Even though we'll probably have to sweat this one out, don't be surprised if you see a repeat of last year's Auburn/Oregon National Championship game where defense ruled. I expect the same sort of game tonight and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Idaho/BYU under (47) 1x (Locked)

There is a lot of value on the under in general across today's board and I'm going to take advantage of it. I have this game set at 44 and I am happy getting the 47. You have two tough defensive squads going against weaker offenses. This one opened at 47 and has dropped to 46.5 with a juiced under at Pinny despite 80% of all bets on the over. This is another low total under for NCAAF, but there's a reason this game is set so low. I really like Idaho to put up a fight via a strong defensive effort and both teams to lean on the run. Neither team has a great field goal kicker and BYU loves to chew up the clock, while Idaho's defense has put up solid numbers despite the ineptness of the Idaho offense. I expect a grind it out type game and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #16

Central Florida/Southern Miss under (52) 1x (Locked)

We continue our acceptance of the under value offered by the books. I have this one at 48.5, based primarily on the strength of both defenses. Even though SoMiss has a really good offense, I suspect UCF to give them some troubles. Both teams like to use up time of possession with UCF ranked top 5 and So Miss top 30. Both teams have top 20 scoring defenses, but only SoMiss has a really scary offense. UCF wants to do most of its work on the ground, especially with Godfrey having an up and down year. I expect O'Leary to really decide to pound the rock today in order to protect against that dangerous SoMiss offense. I like UCF to employ a similar ball control offensive strategy that I predict Stanford will use tonight. You have 75% of all bets on the over in a relatively large bet game, yet this one opened at 52 at Pinny and only made one move with the total dropping a half point to the 51.5 where it sits now. I like this one to stay under the posted total and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Here we go again:
Texas -1.5 2x, -2.2 units
Nebraska -2.5 2x, +2 units
Iowa +2 1x, -1.1 units
Purdue +7.5 1x, +1 units
2-2, -.3 units

Miami+9 1x, +1 unit
Kstate +4.5, 5.5 1x each, +2 units
Uva -10 1x, push -0.1 unit
Mich -1 1x, +1 unit
Utah -7 pending
Adding oregon +3 -120(buyback of stanford bet, dont like it)
5-2-1, +3.6 units