LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Id take the pts too!!!

[Overbettor]

He always seems to screw with the #. A cpl weeks back when the bolts played at kc on monday night I had chiefs plus 6!

[Donnie Brasco]

Sounds like a deal to me.

[Donnie Brasco]

Making an action wager tonight. Just a public fade and taking the better offense and comparable defense:
South Florida -3 1x

[Overbettor]

I hope bulls win by 4 but no more than 6. Good luck brasco

[Krazymojo]

anybody have any NCAAB picks?

[Donnie Brasco]

I hope bulls win by 4 but no more than 6. Good luck brasco

U took the cuse +6 i take it. Lets get it in the middle!

[Love The Action]

Im playing usf for 1x tonight...sorry for late post...crazy day at work.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked)

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked)

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

Play #6

Georgia Tech (+2) 1x (Locked)

I'll take the bait. As I stated above, I have this one at -2, so I'm just getting too much value at this number to pass up. There's no way this one hits 3, so I actually think we see a closer around +1 as these +2's get bought up before kick. I just think these teams are closer in many categories than the line reflects. Most of my thoughts on this game can be seen above and I have to go feed the baby, so I will just say that I love GT and the over in this game, I've already locked in the over and a teaser with GT and the over, so I'm going to finalize the trifecta and roll with GT plus the points at home for 1x. Good luck .

Play #7

Texas Tech/OKST over (78) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

USF (-2.5) 1x (Locked)

All plays updated. More to come. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

What is ur profession LTA? I am an RN. I work in surgery. Just curious.

[Donnie Brasco]

Making an action wager tonight. Just a public fade and taking the better offense and comparable defense:
South Florida -3 1x

Rest of my card:
Purdue +7.5 1x
Mich -1 1x
Texas -1.5 2x
Nebraska -2.5 2x
Kstate +4.5 1x, +5.5 1x
Stanford -3.5 1x
Iowa +2 1x
Uva -10 1x
and good luck guys!

[Donnie Brasco]

Rest of my card:
Purdue +7.5 1x
Mich -1 1x
Texas -1.5 2x :
Nebraska -2.5 2x
Kstate +4.5 1x, +5.5 1x
Stanford -3.5 1x
Iowa +2 1x
Uva -10 1x
and good luck guys!

Added miami +9 1x

Rough start so far!

[SUPREME]

Im playing usf for 1x tonight...sorry for late post...crazy day at work.

thanks...

[Dexter]

good call - i thought cuse would be pumped at home to get a bowl bid. looks like the w. virg win was an anomaly...

[Love The Action]

thanks...

That post implies I owe you something....I missed the part where I should risk my career in order to post my plays on SBR...I didn't know I had that obligation. Next time I'll just tell my client that he can go fuk himself because I need to post my plays on SBR with enough time for Supreme to check them out. Yeah, right back at ya dude

[Love The Action]

good call - i thought cuse would be pumped at home to get a bowl bid. looks like the w. virg win was an anomaly...

Good luck tomorrow

[Love The Action]

Rest of my card:
Purdue +7.5 1x
Mich -1 1x
Texas -1.5 2x
Nebraska -2.5 2x
Kstate +4.5 1x, +5.5 1x
Stanford -3.5 1x
Iowa +2 1x
Uva -10 1x
and good luck guys!

I like KState too...I can get them for +6 right now though...why the steam against them?

[blackeyeshamus]

good luck tomorrow, LTA!
let's stack 'em and cash 'em!
by the way, I kicked my wager
on the south florida bulls down late, too.
managed usf -3 @ EVEN. good stuff.

[Dexter]

I like KState too...I can get them for +6 right now though...why the steam against them?

i took kstate +4.5 and felt that line was a gift.

im not liking my play anymore...at all.

[Love The Action]

good luck tomorrow, LTA!
let's stack 'em and cash 'em!

You too Shamus!

[Love The Action]

i took kstate +4.5 and felt that line was a gift.

im not liking my play anymore...at all.

Yeah, huge public home dog with RLM against them doesn't exactly instill confidence. Still, I lean KState...

GL

[Dexter]

Yeah, huge public home dog with RLM against them doesn't exactly instill confidence. Still, I lean KState...

GL

wow - 82% on the dog kstate and the line has gone up. thats the kind of RLM that usually catches my attention. good thing i only played for 1u. if kstate covers, their gonna win the game outright. i should have just played the ML...

[Love The Action]

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) PUSH

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)WINNER

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x LOSS

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

Play #6

Georgia Tech (+2) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I'll take the bait. As I stated above, I have this one at -2, so I'm just getting too much value at this number to pass up. There's no way this one hits 3, so I actually think we see a closer around +1 as these +2's get bought up before kick. I just think these teams are closer in many categories than the line reflects. Most of my thoughts on this game can be seen above and I have to go feed the baby, so I will just say that I love GT and the over in this game, I've already locked in the over and a teaser with GT and the over, so I'm going to finalize the trifecta and roll with GT plus the points at home for 1x. Good luck .

Play #7

Texas Tech/OKST over (78) 1x (Locked)

Play #8

USF (-2.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #9

NC State/Boston College under (45.5) 1x (Locked)

Play #10

Florida/South Carolina under (41) 1x (Locked)

Play #11

Pittsburgh/Louisville under (45) 1x (Locked)

Play #12

Kentucky/Vanderbilt under (45) 1x (Locked)

A lot of really solid defenses facing rather weak offenses this week. I love this batch of unders. Too exhausted for writeups, so I'm hitting the hay. I will be up early to lock in the rest of the card and get you some writeups on these plays. Good luck.

[Sweatyguido]

Play #9 NC State/Boston College under (45.5) 1x (Locked) Play #10 Florida/South Carolina under (41) 1x (Locked) Play #11 Pittsburgh/Louisville under (45) 1x (Locked) Play #12 Kentucky/Vanderbilt under (45) 1x (Locked) A lot of really solid defenses facing rather weak offenses this week. I love this batch of unders. Too exhausted for writeups, so I'm hitting the hay. I will be up early to lock in the rest of the card and get you some writeups on these plays. Good luck.

might follow these totals all in one with a 13 pt teaser for 120 to win 100

other plays i have is a 13 pt teaser on
ga tech +14 over va tech
georgia 0 over auburn
virginia +3 over duke
arkansas -1 over tennessee
360 to win 300

an nfl/ncaa 13 pointer
miami (oh)/temple under 58
texas +11.5 over mizzou
pats +14 over jets
packers -1 over vikes
145 to win 120

and straight up ncaa plays
stanford -3.5 over oregon
michigan -1 over illinois
south carolina -4 over florida
boise st. -15.5 over tcu
auburn +13 over georgia
iowa +3 over mich st
s. miss -9 over ucf
miss st. +18.5 over 'bama
each game around 55 to win 50

[kts]

a

[kts]

a

[Redscot]

Mornin' LTA, hope you got a good nights rest bro. Looking forward to today's card...am on them all except Fla., local has it at 40.5 gonna wait and see what happens there. Best of luck, will be checking in to see what else you have in store. Thanks as always for putting in the work and sharing.

[Love The Action]

a

a

[Love The Action]

Mornin' LTA, hope you got a good nights rest bro. Looking forward to today's card...am on them all except Fla., local has it at 40.5 gonna wait and see what happens there. Best of luck, will be checking in to see what else you have in store. Thanks as always for putting in the work and sharing.

Wait on the 41 or buy the hook if you like that one. Good luck Red

[southpaw74]

That is a lot odd low unders for college. Hope they come in for you LTA!

[Love The Action]

That is a lot odd low unders for college. Hope they come in for you LTA!

Thanks, same to you SPaw

[southpaw74]

Any take on the Penn state game or why the spread hasn't changed with all that's happening?

[Love The Action]

Any take on the Penn state game or why the spread hasn't changed with all that's happening?

I think the best play in that one is to stay away. I mean, this is uncharted territory...there is no precedence for a team playing in this situation. PSU could either come out and play the game of their life or Nebraska could roll. However, to me, Nebraska is just waaaayy too unpredictable to back here. Martinez is careless and that defense is jekyl/hyde. Based on the stats, PSU is undervalued at home big time. However, I'm not one to back PSU in this spot. Unfortunately, Nebraska is too unpredictable to back either. Perhaps the under would garner some more interest at a better number, but I would say that is probably your best bet in the game. I'm passing all the way around though....who knows what to expect?

[Trivial]

Thanks LTA. I have booked all of them. Love the fact that they are day games, and I can check the score at the end of them and not worry about waking up worried. LOL.

Best of luck to us all. I had to buy two hooks this morning, and thinking about a teaser on all the unders for action only for half a unit.

[GGALLERT]

Lta ncaa !!!!

LTA Keep it up, teasing the 2 most obvious unders
NCST-BC U51.5
PITT-LOU U51.5

For those who dont read LTA's posts might wanna start...