LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10 Recap

10 - 6 = +4.9x

NCAAF Season 2011-2012

51 - 56 = -2.4x

We've had 7 out of 10 winning weeks, but the three weeks we lost really set us back. Almost dug ourselves out last week and it's time to get back into the black in Week 11. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Good info on NIU from every prespective: http://www.niuhuskies.com/sports/m-f...110411aad.html, I like the team and the play NIU -5 1/2. My concern comes with reviewing last years game and the score. This NIU team can put up points from so many different weapons all season and then travels to BG and boggs down completely. Any insight much appreciated!

Love the MAC! I have a ton of friends who went to NIU, so I've seen plenty of game live. That historic under trend against BG does not scare me about the over here. Both Harnish and Schilz are top 25 qb's according to qb rating and neither defense is that great. Both offenses will rely on the pass which will lead to more plays and scoring opportunities. I like the over here and I can get 65 right now, so I'm probably going to lock it in as my first play of the week.

[Xstream]

Sounds good I have it at 65.5 ( I like that personally), but I need to pick a team here for a contest outside of SBR. The line is -5.5, Is this a coin toss coming down to the last possession or is there an edge to NIU.

On the contest I can also choose Toledo/WM side at -11.5.

Thanks for the quick response!

What are you thinking side wise?

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 1x (Locked)

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Sounds good I have it at 65.5 ( I like that personally), but I need to pick a team here for a contest outside of SBR. The line is -5.5, Is this a coin toss coming down to the last possession or is there an edge to NIU.

On the contest I can also choose Toledo/WM side at -11.5.

Thanks for the quick response!

What are you thinking side wise?

I don't like the side, because NIU is not a great team on the road and will let teams hang around. In addition, I think the line is pretty sharp at -6 which is where I have this one set. If you can get -5, then there would be some more value on NIU. That +5.5 line generally lends itself to dogs, so that is something to consider as well. I would recommend you laying off, but if you have to play, wait to see where the line goes. Gun to my head, I would take NIU at -5 or less and BG at +7 or more. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked)

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps
more later. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #1. Correct units denoted above.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked)

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked)

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

[jonathon1995]

LTA, though I made money this weekend on NFL, only because of one game I had on a 350 parlay, I'm done with NFL betting for the most part. I have made money ever week on college just to give 1/2 of it back on Sunday, since i have to settle up every Monday when I up I will quit for the week. There are some teams that you can play on a teaser and be ok, but there isnt one team that has a consistant pattern.

I like both these overs, I'm with you for a fair amount, these teams arent use to National TV and I think that forces the over. Good Luck I'm with you on these.

[rcjiii]

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked)

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

LTA, are you going to be on Kent State again this week? They are playing hapless Akron, -5.5.

[aread1]

1st post on sbr, LTA good work so far. Just wanted to ask you. What do you think about North Ill on spread tonite?

[Love The Action]

LTA, are you going to be on Kent State again this week? They are playing hapless Akron, -5.5.

Still have work to do on the whole board. I have it crazy at work right so I've only capped tonights games. But I post all my plays, so you will know when I decide. Good luck

[Love The Action]

1st post on sbr, LTA good work so far. Just wanted to ask you. What do you think about North Ill on spread tonite?

Welcome....i like the total better because niu has a tendency to allow home teams to stay close and they rarely blow it open on the road. The buffalo game was a perfect example. NIU may cover, but BG is no cakewalk and I expect another husjy shootout tonight. Good luck

[lfep]

LTA, any leans at all on the games tonight as for as spreads? Book as NIU at -5.5 and Toledo at -12.5. I'm leaning NIU -5.5 and Western Michigan +12.5. Systems are driving me nuts and tend towards Bowling Green at +5.5. Thoughts?

[DaOutlaw1x]

Good luck LTA

[Redscot]

Wow, on board late here bro, my local is now at 66 B.G. and 71 Toledo. Toledo game seems out of reach now, what do you think about the 66?

[SlickRick1382]

Wow, on board late here bro, my local is now at 66 B.G. and 71 Toledo. Toledo game seems out of reach now, what do you think about the 66?

They've all gone up. I got on it minutes after he posted and it was at 68.5 already and it's at 70.5 now and 71.5 on a lot of books.

No. Illinois is at 66 on my book and at all the major books at the moment.

[Love The Action]

How did that NIU over not cash...brutal. All we needed was two scores with 12 minutes left. BG couldn't score shit in the 2h. A very disappointing loss that could have been a huge profit swing. WTF

[rwd201]

BG stoped scoring...
Literally

Youve been getting hit hard lately
I was in the same boat until i bounced back with a heavy play
after the bounce back ive been hitting damn near every play

One suggestion look ahead
Look ahead to a matchup you like and patiently wait
if you can get the spread you like bet heavy

[upscope]

How did that NIU over not cash...brutal. All we needed was two scores with 12 minutes left. BG couldn't score shit in the 2h. A very disappointing loss that could have been a huge profit swing. WTF

Wow...just fkin wow!! I mean seriously, I usually can take a beat & not blink an eye but this is getting comical. Doesn't matter if I tail or make my own picks. Every single game I bet I look back & say 'how the fk did that not cash?' It's been literally like 10 of the last 12 games I've bet where I was left shaking my head saying there is no fukkin' way I can possibly lose this game. And I find a way to lose it.

I mean 25 seconds into this game it was 7-7!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We essentially had over 51 here. BG takes the opening KO back for a TD & then scores ONLY 7 points the entire rest of the game @ home vs a horrid defense????????
And in the last 3 weeks alone I've had like 5 teams punch in TD's to fk me @ the end of blowout games when they easily could have taken a knee. I understand college teams don't like taking a knee but last night NI had a chance to punch one in @ the end & give a little pay back AND THEY TAKE A FUKKIN' KNEE!!!!

[Love The Action]

BG stoped scoring...
Literally

Youve been getting hit hard lately
I was in the same boat until i bounced back with a heavy play
after the bounce back ive been hitting damn near every play

One suggestion look ahead
Look ahead to a matchup you like and patiently wait
if you can get the spread you like bet heavy

I highly recommend against all in type plays....that's what the books want. I feel a grind it out approach is the safest way to accumulate profit long term.

Anyway, I had 2 matchups I really liked last night which is why I went 2x on both. 2x plays are big plays for me, even in football where my units are smaller than nba or mlb. My units are more than the standard $100, even in football, so 2x is a big play because it exceeds $500 accoding to my football scale (more for mlb and nba). Consequently, you won't find me making crazy 10x or 20x airbets just to pad my record like other guys on sbr. This is real life and real money to me and I dont give a shit about sbr glory or being a tout like a lot of the sbr crowd. I'm trying to generate a certain ROI of my overall investment and all in plays are not part of the plan because that is how you go broke quick.

Good luck buddy

[Love The Action]

Wow...just fkin wow!! I mean seriously, I usually can take a beat & not blink an eye but this is getting comical. Doesn't matter if I tail or make my own picks. Every single game I bet I look back & say 'how the fk did that not cash?' It's been literally like 10 of the last 12 games I've bet where I was left shaking my head saying there is no fukkin' way I can possibly lose this game. And I find a way to lose it.

I mean 25 seconds into this game it was 7-7!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We essentially had over 51 here. BG takes the opening KO back for a TD & then scores ONLY 7 points the entire rest of the game @ home vs a horrid defense????????
And in the last 3 weeks alone I've had like 5 teams punch in TD's to fk me @ the end of blowout games when they easily could have taken a knee. I understand college teams don't like taking a knee but last night NI had a chance to punch one in @ the end & give a little pay back AND THEY TAKE A FUKKIN' KNEE!!!!

I feel your pain UP...its brutal. That game would have put me back in the black for the season for ncaaf and really helped out my overall BR after a tough nfl sunday. I just cant get over the hump right now in football....i really need the nba to start.

Nevertheless, I am confident that I will be comfortably in the black in both ncaaf and nfl by the time of the natl chamoionship and super bowl. As long as I keep working hard, good things will happen. Just got to stay positive, even after so many tough beats. Good luck bud

[Trivial]

I feel your pain UP...its brutal. That game would have put me back in the black for the season for ncaaf and really helped out my overall BR after a tough nfl sunday. I just cant get over the hump right now in football....i really need the nba to start.

Nevertheless, I am confident that I will be comfortably in the black in both ncaaf and nfl by the time of the natl chamoionship and super bowl. As long as I keep working hard, good things will happen. Just got to stay positive, even after so many tough beats. Good luck bud

I definitely agree with you. Back in 2003, I was stupid and did exactly what you said in your previous note. I went big, real big. I thought there was no possible way something could happen, and it did happen. I lost my bankroll. Then, I was even more stupid. I funded a new bankroll with almost my entire credit limit on a CC, and bet that on one game (both games were NFL). I lost that as well. Both were moneyline bets with a huge spread. Sort of like St. Louis beating New Orleans recently - it can happen.

I spent the next 2 years paying for that mistake, slowly paying off debt, and not placing a single wager.

Now, although I have been tempted many times to do 5 or even 10 unit plays (which I rarely, rarely do), I never to something like all in. At that point, even if you win, you lose, as you have a mental state that it was too easy, and you will do it again, and eventually lose.

Slowly but surely is the way to go. 3 Years ago, I was down near the end of the season, and the playoffs and Superbowl saved me. I tend to do real well in NFL playoffs. I keep saying every year that I won't wager until January, but that never seems to happen. LOL. But you are right, it does usually, with hard work pay off in the end.

I look forward to NBA as well and learning from you. We will drink a beer to celebrate my NBA virginity loss, as I've never bet on a game before.

For those that care, going back to my doctor today to see what I can and cannot do moving forward.

[Love The Action]

I definitely agree with you. Back in 2003, I was stupid and did exactly what you said in your previous note. I went big, real big. I thought there was no possible way something could happen, and it did happen. I lost my bankroll. Then, I was even more stupid. I funded a new bankroll with almost my entire credit limit on a CC, and bet that on one game (both games were NFL). I lost that as well. Both were moneyline bets with a huge spread. Sort of like St. Louis beating New Orleans recently - it can happen.

I spent the next 2 years paying for that mistake, slowly paying off debt, and not placing a single wager.

Now, although I have been tempted many times to do 5 or even 10 unit plays (which I rarely, rarely do), I never to something like all in. At that point, even if you win, you lose, as you have a mental state that it was too easy, and you will do it again, and eventually lose.

Slowly but surely is the way to go. 3 Years ago, I was down near the end of the season, and the playoffs and Superbowl saved me. I tend to do real well in NFL playoffs. I keep saying every year that I won't wager until January, but that never seems to happen. LOL. But you are right, it does usually, with hard work pay off in the end.

I look forward to NBA as well and learning from you. We will drink a beer to celebrate my NBA virginity loss, as I've never bet on a game before.

For those that care, going back to my doctor today to see what I can and cannot do moving forward.

Good luck Triv....I hope the Doc gives you a clean bill of health!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Good luck Triv....I hope the Doc gives you a clean bill of health!

I 2nd that .

[jonathon1995]

I usually do less than 5 plays a week, I have my teams I bet for or against and it works. Also I always take the DOG on Sunday and Monday Night NFL football, and when I say the dog, I bet with the bookies, I take the one the public doesnt like. Its a small bet but I'm up for the year on that. Last night I went big on WM Toledo 2nd half at 36, I may now coast til Monday as I have to settle up every Tuesday. If I do anything it will be a 200 parlay, where i can plug each pick in as I see fit, leave it open ended. It will pay 1200. I have hit 2 of those this year but only do them when I'm way up and I dont do anything big on the NFL, you never know which team will show up.

[Trivial]

I 2nd that .

Thanks LTA and Redscot. Really appreciate it. I won't get a clean bill of health. I have had breathing issues since the asthma attack. In fact, I have fallen down to the ground twice when I could not catch my breath.

It is now just figuring out how to get rid of those issues, or at least manage them effectively.

[pacocn]

Trivial, i know you aren't asking for advice, but my mom had
very similar issues along with many other health related issues and
they were all solved when she went Vegan/Raw foods diet. Let me
know if you want more info. and some great websites. I wish you
good health.

[pacocn]

Trivia, here is a website that you may be interested in
frederic@fredericpatenaude.com

[pacocn]

Trivia, this new diet solved her asthma problem, cured her diabetes,
and lowered her Cholesterol level from 255 to 140 with a great
hdl/ldl ratio.

[Trivial]

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

5 Dimes already lowered to 44.
The Greek is 44.
Bookmaker lowered to 43.5
Bodog is 45 (-115). I think I may need to open an account at Bodog. They seem to be competive.

Trivial.

[Trivial]

Trivia, this new diet solved her asthma problem, cured her diabetes,
and lowered her Cholesterol level from 255 to 140 with a great
hdl/ldl ratio.

Thanks very much Pac.. Looking at www.fredericpatenaude.com now. Interesting stuff.

Really appreciate it.

[Donnie Brasco]

What up boys? I have the total set at 40 tonight, under looks great! Lets get it! Line looks very sharp, but i have a slight lean on miami oh. Best of luck!

[Donnie Brasco]

Looking at ohio total, pinny at 60. I have 55.7. Also vatech i have at 51, 48.5 at pinny. Thoughts?

[Donnie Brasco]

Where'd u find ur totals key #'s?