LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Pin Fish]

QUESTION....do you see weather effecting the pass game in Stoillwater tonight Windy with a few clouds. Low 53F. Winds S at 20 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph

[Donnie Brasco]

Good morning boys, looks like a beautiful day for football here in the southeast! Best of luck to everyone! I will be coaching basketball today, my son's team. At my daughters practice right now. Good old american saturday. It gets no better!

[wwtpglobal]

Amazing work LTA, thanks for all of your hard work! Thoughts on Purdue/Wisc (-26.5)...leaning to Wisc?

[Love The Action]

QUESTION....do you see weather effecting the pass game in Stoillwater tonight Windy with a few clouds. Low 53F. Winds S at 20 to 30 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph

First, I'm not seeing that same weather report. The following site which has generally been pretty reliable for MLB says otherwise.

http://www.wunderground.com/sports/CFB/hometeam/Oklahoma_State:Cowboys.html?st=1320523200

That link shows winds 16-18 mph and partly cloudy. Regardless, a temperature in the 50's should never affect the scoring in a game. This is football! Even temps around 30's don't negatively effect scoring based on the stats so that is a fallacy.

Even if your report is accurate, weather works both ways...can help the over just as much as the under. Too many variables so it's hard to say. I like to know what the weather is, but especially in football, only the most extreme of weather situations are when you should factor weather more heavily. Tonight's KSU/OSU over should not be endangered by either weather report, especially in light of the fact that KSU generates most of its offensive firepower on the ground and OSU has the ability to gash defenses on the ground as well.

[Luv2Play2]

has my book made a mistake ? AF/ARMY IS @ 55 ..YIKES

[rcjiii]

LTA do you have any thoughts on Texas vs Tech? Thanks

[Love The Action]

First, I'm not seeing that same weather report. The following site which has generally been pretty reliable for MLB says otherwise.

http://www.wunderground.com/sports/CFB/hometeam/Oklahoma_State:Cowboys.html?st=1320523200

That link shows winds 16-18 mph and partly cloudy. Regardless, a temperature in the 50's should never affect the scoring in a game. This is football! Even temps around 30's don't negatively effect scoring based on the stats so that is a fallacy.

Even if your report is accurate, weather works both ways...can help the over just as much as the under. Too many variables so it's hard to say. I like to know what the weather is, but especially in football, only the most extreme of weather situations are when you should factor weather more heavily. Tonight's KSU/OSU over should not be endangered by either weather report, especially in light of the fact that KSU generates most of its offensive firepower on the ground and OSU has the ability to gash defenses on the ground as well.

Got raped by that Army/Air Force steam on the under. Apparently, that IS a game with some big time winds...steady in the 30mph range. Still, with solid ground games and weak ground defenses, I still like the over. We'll see...hopefully we can beat the steam!

[Dexter]

you got a great # on hawaii - i have only had 60 with my 2 guys all morning. still may take it.

[Love The Action]

has my book made a mistake ? AF/ARMY IS @ 55 ..YIKES

Nope...crazy weather there today...got burned by the steam

That was definitely not the forecast three days ago...but that's the risk you take. You can't beat the closer on every play. They still have to play the game...

[Love The Action]

you got a great # on hawaii - i have only had 60 with my 2 guys all morning. still may take it.

Yeah, that same book I got 59 has 59.5 now and my other book has 60. Personally, I have no problems taking that one at 60. If I add to it later, it will have to probably be at that number. We'll see. Good luck today Dex.

[rcjiii]

UT vs Tech

No thoughts on Texas today?

[Love The Action]

Amazing work LTA, thanks for all of your hard work! Thoughts on Purdue/Wisc (-26.5)...leaning to Wisc?

No play for me. Purdue has been playing better, Wisky could roll, but I find the line pretty sharp at 26 as the halfway point between the key numbers of 24 and 28. GL

[Love The Action]

LTA do you have any thoughts on Texas vs Tech? Thanks

Small lean on Texas Tech but no play for me. Texas' defense is playing at a high level right now, especially at home. I think TT can cover anything over 14, but I don't have enough confidence to make it a play. GL

[rcjiii]

Thanks LTA. I like Texas, but think 14 1/2 is too much. May buy the half point.

What is your biggest table pounder today? The Hawaii overs? I like that one too.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1.5x (Locked) WINNER

Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston (-27.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this writeup. Let's face it guys, Houston is an offensive juggernaut with an offense that can score on any play, at any time and at any point on the field. On the other side, UAB is not good and in fact they are really bad. As far as the advanced stats, Houston's on top and UAB is on the bottom. We have pure domination by Houston in every statistical category. The only question is whether Houston can cover the 4 TD spread and I think they can. Even though they haven't been that great on the road so far this year, Houston is a motivated team right now in getting more national recognition. The only way they are going to get such recognition is dominating this game and running up the score. Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston. Usually you can say a four td favorite is the "square" side if you believe in such terminology. However, I would argue they are the "sharp" side in this one. I have them set as 32 point favorites in this spot and I don't put much stock in UAB's home field advantage. This is Houston's game and I expect them to explode all over UAB. I am rolling with Houston for 1x.

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked) LOSS

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa (+1.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Bottom line is that Tulsa dominates UCF in most statistical categories, yet is a small dog here. Could this be a dreaded "trap" game? Anything's possible, but I think we see Tulsa win this one on the road. There is no doubt that UCF could very well win this game in what is a must win situation for UCF. However, I just don't see it. Tulsa is just as motivated, if not more, for a number of reasons including conference championship hopes and bowl eligibility. Tulsa is coming off a big win over SMU and plays Marshall after UCF, while UCF just demolished Memphis and plays Southern Miss after this game. Therefore, I don't really see any situational advantage either way. I guess you could say Tulsa is in a good letdown spot after beating SMU pretty handily at home, however, I'm not inclined to believe Greg Kinney and Co. does not take care of business. Tulsa is clearly the more dominate team. I have them set as -2 favorites, but we're getting +1.5 and should have had +2. However, I think they win outright and would not be afraid to play them on the ML, but covering the key number of 1 is always important so I will settle for the points. The advanced efficiency stats really paint a picture here as Tulsa is ranked 42nd in overall F/+ rating compared to UCF's 65th best score, while Off F/+ and Def F/+ favor Tulsa as well with a respective Tulsa ranking of 53 and 37 to UCF's 78 and 52. FEI scores have Tulsa coming in at 63rd overall with an OFEI ranked 58th and DFEI ranked 53rd, while UCF has respective ranks of 73, 75 and 46. S&P+ scores also favor Tulsa with an overall rank of 25th, Off S&P+ ranked 36th and Def S&P+ ranked 20th, to UCF's respective 52, 70 and 38 rankings. Tulsa also has the better FEI special teams rankings coming in at 77th to UCF's 104th overall and Tulsa dominates at field goal kicking, punt return efficiency and kick coverage efficiency. As if that were not enough, even the most important standard stats point to Tulsa in this matchup where Tulsa has the better scoring offense by 5 points on average, huge advantage in field goal percentage, with comparable penalty numbers, red zone efficiency numbers and turnover margin. Even though UCF is a very good home team, Tulsa plays seems comfortable away from home playing a schedule that is one of the toughest in the country which is why Tulsa dominates UCF in the Massey ratings and Sagarin ratings as well. This game opened up at Pinny at +1.5 where it got hit with Tulsa action taking it to a PK, until creeping back up to the +1.5 where it currently sits. Other sites such as Legends have been going back and forth between 1.5 and 2. I could have gotten 2 earlier in the week, but I didn't finish looking at the game until tonight. Nevertheless, as I said earlier, I see Tulsa winning this game. These late season divisional road games often come down to quarterback play and I have supreme confidence in senior Kinney over UCF's sophomore Godfrey (who incidentally burned us earlier in the year against BYU). When it comes to 4th quarter crunchtime, I trust Kinney in this spot. I think we see this line end up going back to a PK before kick, so I'm going to jump on the +1.5 and never look back. I'm rolling with Tulsa for 1x, but like them enough in this spot that I may add 0.50x to 1x more to this play. Good luck.

Play #6

Oregon/Washington over (73.5) 1x (Locked)

I'll just offer some quick thoughts because I'm in a hurry. You have a fast-paced, high-scoring offense in Oregon squaring off against a pass-oriented, efficient and high scoring offense in Washington, with an Oregon defense that is decent, but susceptible to the big play and a Washington defense that is not very good. I expect a frenetic pace to this game that hits the 80's. I have this total set at 77, so we're getting 3.5 points of value. I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Army/Air Force over (59) 1x (Locked)

I love when the academies play, because they are generally competitive games with little to no defense. Both teams run the triple option which is difficult to defend because of the outlets for production. Air Force is especially dangerous with their ability to play action pass with Jefferson. I have this one set at 63, so here's another one that is giving us around 4 points of value. The line movement has dropped a bit, but I expect late money on the over and this one to close at 60 or more. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Missouri/Baylor over (73) 1x (Locked)

Here we have a two explosive offenses against a middle-of-the-pack defense in Missouri and one of the worst NCAAF defense in Baylor. With Baylor playing at home, I expect them to set the pace and that pace will be fast. Missouri will have a hard time in this one and I also like Baylor to cover this game. However, I will stick with the over as that is the safer play. I have this one set at 76, with a solid FG of value and the line has ticked up a bit from our number of 73. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.


Play #9

Kansas State/OSU over (69) 1x (Locked)

We actually have two excellent defenses in this game that are highly rated according to the advanced stats. However, this game is at OSU and they play lightning quick. If KSU has had a weakness defensively, it is against the pass and they were exposed last week by OU. I don't expect much of difference today against Whedon, Blackmon and Co. KSU will score with their dangerous delay option play and QB rushing attack, but will be forced into playing a faster pace than they would like. I expect a competitive game, but one that sails over. I have this one set at 73, so again we are finding solid value in that 3 to 4 point range. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

Correlated Teaser

Kent State (+5)/under (48.5) 1.1x to win 1x WINNER

I am going to make this an official play for a full 1x. I am already on the under at 43 and I have Kent State set at -3. I am still contemplating a play on Kent State at -1. That would really have me "loaded up" on this game and I'm not sure I want to go there yet. Still, as I stated in my writeup on my under play, there is a strong correlation between Kent State and the under. Plus, most bets are coming in on CMU and over, so we have a nice public fade here as well. I love it when the stats. My model and my capping come in on the other side of where the majority of action lies (aka the "public" but I hate those terms). Anyway, I'm off to work and don't have time for an in-depth writeup, but even though we are violating certain teaser rules by crossing zero and teasing a total, we are also covering Kent State on the key numbers of 3, 1, and 4 and getting a push on 5. Plus, we push the total up to cover the key numbers of 44, 45, 47 & 48. I think a tease in this situation is warranted when there is such a strong correlation between a team winning and the total. Consequently, I am rolling with the correlated teaser with Kent State and the under for 1x. I may still play Kent State at -1. Good luck.

Play #11

Kent State (-1) 1x (Locked) WINNER

I love Kent State and the under as a strong correlation so I am playing that game accordingly. 1x each on KS, the under and teasing them both. Busy day at work, but I will try to post my plays as I lock them in. Good luck.

Play #12

Syracuse (+2) 1x (Locked)

Syracuse is the better team and I have this set as PK with Cuse on the road. Their offense is more dangerous and their defense is comparable. These close conference battles generally come down to QB play and Nassib is the better QB over McEntee according to both QB rating and the eye test. I expect this one to be close, but I also think Syracuse wins this one outright so a ML play might be warranted as well for those more risky than I. I will settle for the points and I'm rolling with Cuse for 1x. Good luck.

Play #13

Vanderbilt/Florida under (45) 1x (Locked)

Man, I've been waiting for this number all week and my squarer book finally moved up to 45. There has been very little movement on this total all week despite over 80% of all bets on the over. The key in this play is covering the 45, which is the fourth most common and thus important key total number. I think most people are betting the over based on Vandy's new found offensive success behind Rodgers. However, even though Vandy might cover this game, I don't think we see a shootout in the swap today. Florida's defense is supremely athletic and has the speed to run sideline to sideline. That speed defense will mix up their looks, swarm to the ball and make life difficult on Vandy. On the other side, Brantley hopes to find some offensive rhythm today after coming back from injury. However, this is not a good defensive matchup. Both Florida and Vandy are ranked top 30 range in defensive advanced efficiency categories such as F/+, FEI and S&P+. Vandy is ranked top 10 in such categories against the run and will force Brantley into obvious situations which will not be to his advantage. This game should be a highlight reel for SEC speed defense today. I have this one set at 41, so either I am way off or the books are just trying to cover their butts from strong public perception in favor of the over. I like my chances and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #14

Alabama (-4)(-120) 1x (Locked)

I'm running out of time before I have to leave for the day, so I can't provide the in-depth writeup I wanted to, but I think both quantitative and qualitative factors favor the Tide today. While LSU has the clear advantage in overall special teams play, Alabama is better in terms of punt return efficiency and is not that far off in field goal efficiency. Alabama has the edge in overall F/+, Off F/+ and Def F/+. The efficiency of Alabama's offense to date has been phenomenal and I don't expect that to fall apart at home today, just because they are playing a comparable defense to their own. Overall, while the stats are close, the statistical edge clearly goes to Bama and even the slightest edge is important in these types of games. In addition, if you look at this game from the qualitative angles, you still have to give the edge to Bama because of home field advantage, revenge and equal motivational factors. Both teams are highly motivated for national championship implications and all the other reasons that go with it, but the home field advantage could be important when it comes to disruption of LSU's offense and momentum shifts in the game. In games like this, I also like to look for who has the biggest difference maker and in my mind that advantage goes to Richardson and Alabama because of his ability to put 6 on the board every time he touches the ball. While LSU is deep, they do not have an offensive difference maker like Richardson. The final qualitative advantages I would give Bama is coaching and defensive experience. In big games, I think an X's and O's coach in Saban is more important than a rah-rah player's coach in Miles. I like the business-like approach Saban takes and it's all about process and routine which is something I respect. Plus, Bama returned most (I believe 10) starters from last year's defense squad. The majority of these guys are NFL caliber talents. While LSU is a very good team and has a comparable defense, they are not quite as experienced as Bama and I expect that experience to help Bama over the top at home. Do not underestimate the ability of Bama's defense to withstand momentum shifts against them today because of defensive experience and the home field advantage. I think it's pretty well documented that LSU is getting most of the $20 bets while Bama is getting the big money. I'm not adverse to buying the hook in the right situations and I think we have one here in order to get the push on the key number of 4. I have Bama set a bit over -6, but I doubt the spread is a factor today. I have a suspicion that the winning team will do so by a margin around 10 points. Both teams will pull out all the stops today in a game that could likely go over the posted total because I think you see offensive aggressiveness in going for 4th down conversions and fresh offensive wrinkles. Plus, there is no love lost between these teams and coaches and each will go for the jugular. In the end, I think Bama ends up on top, at home and I'm ROLLing TIDE for 1x. Good luck.

Play #15

Utah State/Hawaii over (59) 1.5x (Locked)

This game might just be my favorite play on the board today as I have this set at 65 giving us quite a bit of value on the over here. I have to think about it some more, but I may up this to a multiple unit play later today as much as the 3x range. However, I wanted to be sure to at least get 1.5x on the key number of 59 because I missed the best available number of 58 earlier in the week. In some respects, we have a very similar set up to this game over as the NIU/Toledo over earlier in the week. Both teams sport advanced efficiency numbers which favor offense over defense and both teams will be happy to play a fast paced game. Even though Utah State likes to run the ball with great rushing efficiency numbers, they play a fast paced spread offense ranked in the bottom of third of time of possession. Hawaii will be happy to oblige a back and forth offensive shootout and is prone to giving up big plays on the ground which Utah St. is prone to create. In any event, I love the trend of Hawaii home overs and situationally, I like Hawaii to come out firing after that horrendous offensive performance of last week. Both teams are ranked top third in scoring offense and toward the bottom of scoring defense. My only concern is that both teams have weak field goal kicking, but I expect TD's in this game and not field goals. Based on the strength of the offenses, the relative weakness of the defenses (especially in relation to the strength of each opposing offense) and the situational trends toward the over, I am rolling that way for 1.5x and may add to this play down the road. Good luck.

Play #16

Ole Miss/Kentucky under (45) 1x (Locked)

Another SEC low total defensive under I like. We're covering the key number of 45 and I expect this one to drop before game time. Two underrated defenses going against weak offenses. The field goal kickers are good, so that is a concern, but I don't see either of these offenses exploding today. Both teams have OFF F/+ scores over the ranking of 100 and Def F/+ under 50. The majority of all bets have come in on the over to an almost 80/20 split, but there has been very little movement in favor of the over. I expect a squeaker but this one to come in under the posted total and I'm rolling with the under for 1x.

[Love The Action]

Alright...good luck gentlemen. I'm out of the day. I will post any further plays if possible. Good luck

[wildcatpro]

Nope...crazy weather there today...got burned by the steam

That was definitely not the forecast three days ago...but that's the risk you take. You can't beat the closer on every play. They still have to play the game...

I live close to field at this point wind is not bad at all blowing less then 10mph..

[hondo5]

wow. syracuse must be throwing this game. Uconn is absolute trash and cuse QB is all of a sudden throwing the ball all over the place..

[Donnie Brasco]

Jeez, how bad is ohio st?

[bonestock]

Army/Air Force over (59) 1x (Locked)

Dropped to 55.5. What happened?

[buurrdman]

Wow bad beat on the florida game! Thought we had that in the bag!!!

[SimonSayz]

Is this aif force game a joke? Two Army fk ups on the one yard line? Air Force turns it over in the Red Zone...

[raiderhater9572]

Yea I know I have the over as well I think over 2nd half at 24 1/2 is good play

[alamo]

Air Force have scored ZERO points and they were big favourites. AWFUL

[riffraff24]

they cant score ugh

[alamo]

Did anyone see the end of the Kentucky \ Ole Miss game ? Ole miss had a 1st and goal with a min remaining and thankfully didnt get in on any of the 4 chances that wouldve ruined our under for that game. PHHHEW!

[Love The Action]

Out boozing... Phone about to die...locked this addition in earlier..card final good luck

Adding 0.50x to play #15 hawaii over for total of 2x (1.5x over 59 & 0.50x over 60)(locked)

[WULULO]

I just wanna say thanks for your saturday picks. I went 13-5-1 following dexter, LTA, and No Coins picks!! You guys are the best!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Love The Action]

10 - 6 = +4.9x on the week, plus some breaks went our way for once like in the Kent game. After three straight weeks of horrible beats, things are starting to even out which is nice. I will get the updated season record up and posted after my NFL plays for today. I have to get to work!

[Love The Action]

Donnie B!! Great call on LSU! I think you had a great week too, right?

[Donnie Brasco]

Yes thx to a combo of ur pics and mine, very profitable! Lets keep it up! Congrats to u and the crew on a great week!

[buurrdman]

Hey LTA thanks for all of your hardwork! I don't post a lot but I always check out your thread! Keep up the good work and BOL the rest of the way!

[lfep]

LTA, any thoughts on the "second half" of the college football season? I know bowl games aren't decided yet, but do you feel teams will being "giving up" per se or being more careful in the second half if they have a huge lead, or... I dunno, what's been your experience after Week 10?

Thanks!

[Xstream]

LTA, I'm new to your thread in CFB but noticed last week you have a good sense of MAC conference play. Any thoughts on NIU or the others tomorrow? Much appreciated and BOL!

[Xstream]

Good info on NIU from every prespective: http://www.niuhuskies.com/sports/m-f...110411aad.html, I like the team and the play NIU -5 1/2. My concern comes with reviewing last years game and the score. This NIU team can put up points from so many different weapons all season and then travels to BG and boggs down completely. Any insight much appreciated!