LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Redscot]

Pinny just jumped back up to 46.5 before kick

Both squads are gonna be chipping away, grinding....It's gonna come down to whether we get the big plays. Ohio provided one on the initial drive, but Temple is gonna have to break a couple of big runs in the course of the game.....I hedged here a bit getting Ohio +10 1/2 and under 53 1/2 in a 7 pt. teaser. I really need to learn to start laying off games I don't feel that strongly about . GL all

[No coincidences]

I really need to learn to start laying off games I don't feel that strongly about . GL all

Don't we all Red.

Don't we all.

[Love The Action]

Both squads are gonna be chipping away, grinding....It's gonna come down to whether we get the big plays. Ohio provided one on the initial drive, but Temple is gonna have to break a couple of big runs in the course of the game.....I hedged here a bit getting Ohio +10 1/2 and under 53 1/2 in a 7 pt. teaser. I really need to learn to start laying off games I don't feel that strongly about . GL all

Obviously, based on my writeup, I expected a slow pace for Temple's offense. However, I surely expected a bit more effectiveness, especially on the ground where they are so highly rated in both advanced and standard stats. That is disappointing. However, my biggest disappointment in this game so far, is the snails pace at which Ohio is playing on offense. In every other game this season, Ohio played a frenetic pace on offense as evidenced by their 87th national rank in time of possession as I noted in my writeup. Ohio should be playing more uptempo so this must be by design.

Neverthless, we have 21 points with 5 minutes left so if we can get one more TD before the half, we will be in solid shape.

Edit: as I write this Ohio missed a wide open guy on a bomb that would have put the ball on the Temple 20. Damn...

[Love The Action]

That missed field goal really hurt. I have to question Ohio's play calling there. They needed to extend that drive on 3rd and 2 instead of going deep. I like the aggressiveness, but they needed points there. Keep pounding the option there, pick up the first down and then go play action into the endzone. Even if they missed, they would have had a 40 yard fg instead of 48 yarder.

[Love The Action]

Nice...still 2 minutes to get some points and put this one into the 30's at half...

[Love The Action]

We need 3 td's to cash. Can't complain about having 28 at the half, but I thought there were missed opportunities, especially by Ohio on their last two drives. This one should be at 31 total points right now at the very least.

Oh well, good luck tonight guys. Totals just got released by both of my locals, so it's time to get to work. Expect some plays to be posted throughout the night...

[Love The Action]

Both squads are gonna be chipping away, grinding....It's gonna come down to whether we get the big plays. Ohio provided one on the initial drive, but Temple is gonna have to break a couple of big runs in the course of the game.....I hedged here a bit getting Ohio +10 1/2 and under 53 1/2 in a 7 pt. teaser. I really need to learn to start laying off games I don't feel that strongly about . GL all

I agree that you shouldn't play a game if you can't find an edge or feel good about an angle or whatever. However, I tend to believe that I can find an edge in most games. That is why you will find me playing nightly action. I want to churn over my BR to create more money making opportunities. You can only play what is available each night on the card. There's nothing wrong with passing and certainly no shame in it, however, I'm looking to make money and I think I can find enough of an edge in most games in all the markets I invest to be quite profitable. Basically, I sacrifice a higher winning percentage for more units.

[lfep]

LTA, any thoughts on the 2nd half?

[southpaw74]

Lots of big yardage plays. That's the only reason the 1H went over. Not sure if they though? I'm stumped

[Redscot]

I agree that you shouldn't play a game if you can't find an edge or feel good about an angle or whatever. However, I tend to believe that I can find an edge in most games. That is why you will find me playing nightly action. I want to churn over my BR to create more money making opportunities. You can only play what is available each night on the card. There's nothing wrong with passing and certainly no shame in it, however, I'm looking to make money and I think I can find enough of an edge in most games in all the markets I invest to be quite profitable. Basically, I sacrifice a higher winning percentage for more units.

Right on bro . My comments were really based on the fact that I am very limited in my NCAA FB capping. It amounts to 50% LTA, and another 40% of other guys I respect....then I'll analyze what is the prevailing play. Sometimes, like tonight, there is a game that I just can't find a consensus....in which case I will usually just go with your play bro . Problem is I start getting itchy and often times make a wishy washy play trying to win a middle play off a teaser....not a long term solution . Over got some momentum....unbelievable that it has been through the air for Temple. Should be an exciting 2nd half...and thank god we have seen at least a few defensive stops...and teams willing to kick the ball off without pooching .

[Love The Action]

Wow...I left work and the USC/Colorado game was at 57....I get home and it's at 58.5. That sucks...

[alamo]

WOW ! They called a penalty for taunting as he dived into endzone but then ignored. Thats a massive break, even the commentators said it shouldnt have counted

[Redscot]

Thank god they didn't call it because, how the F UCK is diving into the endzone taunting.....are they really serious with this shiznit....come on man. Who makes these rules?! It's a Man's game, stop softening it up.

Gonna be interesting here.........

[alamo]

Thank god they didn't call it because, how the F UCK is diving into the endzone taunting.....are they really serious with this shiznit....come on man. Who makes these rules?! It's a Man's game, stop softening it up. Gonna be interesting here.........

Have to agree with ya. I saw an aussie taunt as he ran into endzone 2 weeks ago and they took it off the board.

[Love The Action]

Wow, I am really shocked with all of the LSU love out there...While Alabama seems a bit overpriced at -4.5 or more, I would jump on the Tide at -3.5 or -3. Tough decision at -4...

[Love The Action]

WOW ! They called a penalty for taunting as he dived into endzone but then ignored. Thats a massive break, even the commentators said it shouldnt have counted

Thank god they didn't call it because, how the F UCK is diving into the endzone taunting.....are they really serious with this shiznit....come on man. Who makes these rules?! It's a Man's game, stop softening it up.

Gonna be interesting here.........

I haven't been watching, but it sounds like we caught a break. That's great...maybe they are starting to even out because we all have variance working in our favor right now....

[ManBearPig]

Man I locked in over 47.5 earlier and I missed the best line. I should've been more patient but I didn't know if I'd have a chance later and didn't have time to babysit. hopefully we get a FG here and all cash.

Make it rain up in heeya!!

[Love The Action]

Man I locked in over 47.5 earlier and I missed the best line. I should've been more patient but I didn't know if I'd have a chance later and didn't have time to babysit. hopefully we get a FG here and all cash.

Make it rain up in heeya!!

Cash it MBP

[YOUNGBUCK]

Great call LTA thought under was lookin good with the late movement

[ManBearPig]

The MAC...where season stats don't matter...they're pouring it on now.

[Love The Action]

Great call LTA thought under was lookin good with the late movement

Thanks...but did you see the late move to the over. Right before kick, Pinny shot back up to 46.5.

Regardless, this over was fairly obvious based on the opening number of 47. The key totals numbers of 44 and 45 are pretty big for unders, so by opening this game -- one between one of the best defensive teams that has played to 7 straight unders -- over those key numbers of 44 and 45, the books were giving you their lean.

As I stated in my writeup, I had this one capped at 48, but one of my main reasons for this play was line interpretation based on how books set totals in general and that interplay with key totals numbers.

What are you liking for tomorrow. I have a possible big play in mind if I can get the right number.

GL

[YOUNGBUCK]

Didnt see the late movement on Pinny where do u watch their actual site? I lean Akron and the under tomorrow wat u think?

[Love The Action]

Didnt see the late movement on Pinny where do u watch their actual site? I lean Akron and the under tomorrow wat u think?

Sports Insights...SBR odds showed it as well.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Sports Insights...SBR odds showed it as well.

Ahh ive never looked at SBR odds I usually watch the greeks movements... Wats ur lean tomorrow LTA

[alamo]

Great call LTA. Easy over in the end !

[Love The Action]

Great call LTA. Easy over in the end !

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1.5x (Locked)

Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston (-27.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this writeup. Let's face it guys, Houston is an offensive juggernaut with an offense that can score on any play, at any time and at any point on the field. On the other side, UAB is not good and in fact they are really bad. As far as the advanced stats, Houston's on top and UAB is on the bottom. We have pure domination by Houston in every statistical category. The only question is whether Houston can cover the 4 TD spread and I think they can. Even though they haven't been that great on the road so far this year, Houston is a motivated team right now in getting more national recognition. The only way they are going to get such recognition is dominating this game and running up the score. Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston. Usually you can say a four td favorite is the "square" side if you believe in such terminology. However, I would argue they are the "sharp" side in this one. I have them set as 32 point favorites in this spot and I don't put much stock in UAB's home field advantage. This is Houston's game and I expect them to explode all over UAB. I am rolling with Houston for 1x.

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Tulsa (+1.5) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line is that Tulsa dominates UCF in most statistical categories, yet is a small dog here. Could this be a dreaded "trap" game? Anything's possible, but I think we see Tulsa win this one on the road. There is no doubt that UCF could very well win this game in what is a must win situation for UCF. However, I just don't see it. Tulsa is just as motivated, if not more, for a number of reasons including conference championship hopes and bowl eligibility. Tulsa is coming off a big win over SMU and plays Marshall after UCF, while UCF just demolished Memphis and plays Southern Miss after this game. Therefore, I don't really see any situational advantage either way. I guess you could say Tulsa is in a good letdown spot after beating SMU pretty handily at home, however, I'm not inclined to believe Greg Kinney and Co. does not take care of business. Tulsa is clearly the more dominate team. I have them set as -2 favorites, but we're getting +1.5 and should have had +2. However, I think they win outright and would not be afraid to play them on the ML, but covering the key number of 1 is always important so I will settle for the points. The advanced efficiency stats really paint a picture here as Tulsa is ranked 42nd in overall F/+ rating compared to UCF's 65th best score, while Off F/+ and Def F/+ favor Tulsa as well with a respective Tulsa ranking of 53 and 37 to UCF's 78 and 52. FEI scores have Tulsa coming in at 63rd overall with an OFEI ranked 58th and DFEI ranked 53rd, while UCF has respective ranks of 73, 75 and 46. S&P+ scores also favor Tulsa with an overall rank of 25th, Off S&P+ ranked 36th and Def S&P+ ranked 20th, to UCF's respective 52, 70 and 38 rankings. Tulsa also has the better FEI special teams rankings coming in at 77th to UCF's 104th overall and Tulsa dominates at field goal kicking, punt return efficiency and kick coverage efficiency. As if that were not enough, even the most important standard stats point to Tulsa in this matchup where Tulsa has the better scoring offense by 5 points on average, huge advantage in field goal percentage, with comparable penalty numbers, red zone efficiency numbers and turnover margin. Even though UCF is a very good home team, Tulsa plays seems comfortable away from home playing a schedule that is one of the toughest in the country which is why Tulsa dominates UCF in the Massey ratings and Sagarin ratings as well. This game opened up at Pinny at +1.5 where it got hit with Tulsa action taking it to a PK, until creeping back up to the +1.5 where it currently sits. Other sites such as Legends have been going back and forth between 1.5 and 2. I could have gotten 2 earlier in the week, but I didn't finish looking at the game until tonight. Nevertheless, as I said earlier, I see Tulsa winning this game. These late season divisional road games often come down to quarterback play and I have supreme confidence in senior Kinney over UCF's sophomore Godfrey (who incidentally burned us earlier in the year against BYU). When it comes to 4th quarter crunchtime, I trust Kinney in this spot. I think we see this line end up going back to a PK before kick, so I'm going to jump on the +1.5 and never look back. I'm rolling with Tulsa for 1x, but like them enough in this spot that I may add 0.50x to 1x more to this play. Good luck.

Play #6

Oregon/Washington over (73.5) 1x (Locked)

Here's another play we might add to our stake on as the week progresses. Writeup to come. Good luck.

[riffraff24]

With you on Tulsa! Lets get paid LTA! GL!

[suicidekings]

Regardless, this over was fairly obvious based on the opening number of 47. The key totals numbers of 44 and 45 are pretty big for unders, so by opening this game -- one between one of the best defensive teams that has played to 7 straight unders -- over those key numbers of 44 and 45, the books were giving you their lean. As I stated in my writeup, I had this one capped at 48, but one of my main reasons for this play was line interpretation based on how books set totals in general and that interplay with key totals numbers.

I don't really understand what you mean by this. How do you determine 44/45 to be key numbers for Unders?

[Redscot]

Cash it MBP

Attaboy LTA, looks like you are getting locked in bro. Keep up the great work

[Love The Action]

Attaboy LTA, looks like you are getting locked in bro. Keep up the great work

[Love The Action]

I don't really understand what you mean by this. How do you determine 44/45 to be key numbers for Unders?

I gotta run to work, but will respond tonight when I have more time for discussion. I could see where my post could have been confusing. I will try to clarify for later tonight after wotrk.

However, in short, public perception was favoring the under because of Temple's under streak, overall defense and rushing offense. However, if the books were worried about the under, they would have opened in that 44 or 45 key total range because of the high percentage of final scores therein. By opening above those two numbers they had exposure on the under that obviously did not worry them despite public perception heavy on the under. I believe my data also suggests a slight advantage to the under (under 1%) in terms of o/u results over the last 2,000 games set at 44 or 45. Perhaps MBP or someone else can confirm based on their ability to formulate reliable search queries.

GL SK...what's your play for tonight?

[Donnie Brasco]

My man on a roll! Keep it up bro! Temple killed me and i stayed off the total so no wash for me.

[Prize Marlin]

LTA, I dont reply to really anything but I do follow your threads. I play a pick 6 NFL winners with people I work with. All you have to do is pick 6 NFL winners with no spread, just straight up. Any chance you can help me with 6 winners this weekend for NFL. If we dont get it right it doesnt matter because I havent won yet so I would love to know what your picks would be. I appreciate the help if you get a chance.

[Love The Action]

LTA, I dont reply to really anything but I do follow your threads. I play a pick 6 NFL winners with people I work with. All you have to do is pick 6 NFL winners with no spread, just straight up. Any chance you can help me with 6 winners this weekend for NFL. If we dont get it right it doesnt matter because I havent won yet so I would love to know what your picks would be. I appreciate the help if you get a chance.

Check my nfl thread....i already hav several plays posted for this week. GL.