LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

We smashed both closers at pinny! Terrific LTA!

And we cashed that over with 8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter!

[Redscot]

Nice, over cashed early. . I recommend the ESPN program tonight unguarded on Chris Herren.

[Love The Action]

I have a ton of work to do tonight for both my regular job and on this week's NFL and NCAAF games. Consequently, I'm not going to be around here too much tonight, but will check in later before I go to sleep and to post any more plays. Congrats to everyone who cashed the NIU/Toledo over! Let's get another one tomorrow! Talk to you guys later. Good luck on your Toledo plays.

[Dave88]

Thanks for insight LTA! Cashed it!
Nice not to go through the usual 4th quarter stress which has been happening to me lot lately!
Now if Toledo can also cover the -7.5 I took it will be a very nice parlay result!

[Love The Action]

Nice, over cashed early. . I recommend the ESPN program tonight unguarded on Chris Herren.

Wish I could...I'm just trying to keep my head above water right now. Got a big acquisition going on at our company, so I'm up to my elbows in conference calls, doc drafting and everything else that goes along with it. In addition, I have to find some time for the rest of this week's NFL and NCAAF card. Going to be so busy this week, so I may not have time to sleep...we'll sleep when we're dead right. This is probably similar to how busy you get around harvest time

Good luck bud...talk to you later

[pimike]

Nice job

[No coincidences]

Wish I could...I'm just trying to keep my head above water right now. Got a big acquisition going on at our company, so I'm up to my elbows in conference calls, doc drafting and everything else that goes along with it. In addition, I have to find some time for the rest of this week's NFL and NCAAF card. Going to be so busy this week, so I may not have time to sleep...we'll sleep when we're dead right. This is probably similar to how busy you get around harvest time

Good luck bud...talk to you later

Don't you hate when work gets in the way of your ability to be a degenerate?

[Redscot]

Wish I could...I'm just trying to keep my head above water right now. Got a big acquisition going on at our company, so I'm up to my elbows in conference calls, doc drafting and everything else that goes along with it. In addition, I have to find some time for the rest of this week's NFL and NCAAF card. Going to be so busy this week, so I may not have time to sleep...we'll sleep when we're dead right. This is probably similar to how busy you get around harvest time

Good luck bud...talk to you later

Indeed brother. Back in the day I worked as a paralegal for a minute to pay the bills while in college for a big law firm Proskauer Rose, DD and redacting documents at all hours of the morning, damn, that sucked . Harvest time here wears me out to, lots of negotiating and physically too. End of the day though, you know I get my siesta's in when I need em!

Great call tonight, now just need Toledo to cover 2 1/2 points and I get a dbl whammy tonight. Sleep is overated, but it's good to make sure it is quality sleep when you get it .

[Dexter]

easy winner - i foolishly sat out of this over. good call.

[Redscot]

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Like the play bro. Biggest concern I would have you addressed which is clock churning via ball control. End of the day this Temple team has shown they can put up big numbers on the road, and that running attack is even more formidable on turf....I too think we see them break a couple to aid the over. I also like Temple in this game, but not sure if I will play them yet.

I must admit though, after last night I'm desperate to see a defense make a stop! What a joke.

[Love The Action]

Don't you hate when work gets in the way of your ability to be a degenerate?

Yes!!

[Love The Action]

Thanks for insight LTA! Cashed it!
Nice not to go through the usual 4th quarter stress which has been happening to me lot lately!
Now if Toledo can also cover the -7.5 I took it will be a very nice parlay result!

Nice, over cashed early. . I recommend the ESPN program tonight unguarded on Chris Herren.

Nice job

easy winner - i foolishly sat out of this over. good call.

[Love The Action]

Great call tonight, now just need Toledo to cover 2 1/2 points and I get a dbl whammy tonight. Sleep is overated, but it's good to make sure it is quality sleep when you get it .

Sorry you didn't get your Toledo play....at least we got the over

Good luck today bud

[Love The Action]

Like the play bro. Biggest concern I would have you addressed which is clock churning via ball control. End of the day this Temple team has shown they can put up big numbers on the road, and that running attack is even more formidable on turf....I too think we see them break a couple to aid the over. I also like Temple in this game, but not sure if I will play them yet.

I must admit though, after last night I'm desperate to see a defense make a stop! What a joke.

Defense comes Friday in the Kent State game...GL tonight bud

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 10

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Toledo over (67) 1.5x (Locked)

Yes this is a "public" play, but it's also the right play. The books could have opened this one at any of the other key numbers in the 60's, including the two most important key totals numbers in the 60's being 65 and 66. However, instead, they opened above those key numbers. That tells me the books expect a shootout and so do I. As I stated above, I have this one set at 71 which is quite a bit of value here. Consequently, I may be adding another unit to this play tomorrow morning. I want to see some movement on this total in support of the over before going bigger and I will risk a worse number because even if my sharper book moves up to 67.5, I will be able to catch 67 at my slower book. The advanced stats tell the story, but the standard stats bring it home. NIU and Toledo are two of the best offenses in the country and definitely in the MAC. Toledo is definitely more balanced, but they both can pass as well as run. Yet, neither team is a big time of possession team where Toledo is ranked 41st and NIU is 110th. These teams score quick and score often with big gashing offensive plays and great red zone production. Within the red zone, both teams are converting points above a 90% clip which puts NIU at 13th nationally, while Toledo is 16th. Both scoring offenses are top 20 nationally with per game averages exceeding 35 points per game. However, even though Toledo has a solid defense, neither team is a great scoring defense with Toledo giving up more than 25 ppg and NIU over 35 ppg. While Toledo does have a solid advanced stat numbers in terms F/+, FEI and S&P+, NIU is rather poor all the way around and I expect both Toledo quarterbacks to excel on Tuesday. We actually have three solid qb's with the Toledo rotation ranking 20th and 24th in Dantin and Ownens respectively and Harnish coming in at 36th in quarterback rating. Finally, both offenses have really efficient and effective field goal kicking that should get us those extra fg's from long distance that might just put us over the top in this one. I just don't see anything backing the under here. Yes, as I said, Toledo's defense is good. However, the efficiency of the NIU offense will put up points. I actually expect this one to be a fun shootout with both teams scoring in the 30's. While I do expect Toledo to win the game based on their superior defense, I'm still not convinced they cover an 8 point or more spread with the effectiveness of NIU's offense (despite NIU's road troubles so far this year). Situationally, this is a big game for both teams with MAC championship implications. I just don't see either team letting down and I think this one hits in the 70's, so I'm rolling with the over for 1x and possibly more as sometime on Tuesday morning. Good luck.

Play #2

Houston (-27.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm not going to spend a lot of time on this writeup. Let's face it guys, Houston is an offensive juggernaut with an offense that can score on any play, at any time and at any point on the field. On the other side, UAB is not good and in fact they are really bad. As far as the advanced stats, Houston's on top and UAB is on the bottom. We have pure domination by Houston in every statistical category. The only question is whether Houston can cover the 4 TD spread and I think they can. Even though they haven't been that great on the road so far this year, Houston is a motivated team right now in getting more national recognition. The only way they are going to get such recognition is dominating this game and running up the score. Believe me, if Marshall can roll UAB by more than 28, then so can Houston. Usually you can say a four td favorite is the "square" side if you believe in such terminology. However, I would argue they are the "sharp" side in this one. I have them set as 32 point favorites in this spot and I don't put much stock in UAB's home field advantage. This is Houston's game and I expect them to explode all over UAB. I am rolling with Houston for 1x.

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Central Michigan/Kent State under (43) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to make sure I get at least 43 on this play, so I'm locking it up now. We should have hit the under on Saturday between Kent State and Bowling Green, but KS's defense is so good that they were able to force a fumble with 20 seconds left in the game and took it the house to burn the under. While I think Kent State's defense dominates again, I don't think we see this one approach the posted total. I have this game set 39 and would not be surprised to see a Kent State outright win in a game that stays under the posted total. I also may play Kent State at -1, so stay tuned for another possible play in this game. Kent State is generally ranked top 30 nationally in all defensive advanced efficiency numbers, while CM is in the 90's. Both teams have poor advanced offensive numbers, although CM is a bit better in that category. However, Kent State has the edge is special teams and at kicker (although both teams have reliable field goal kickers). The time of possession numbers show both teams will employ a grind it out game plan in this one, although CM is much more likely to play an uptempo pass game than Kent State, especially if forced into that by game situations. Nevertheless, I just don't see CM scoring more than 17 on this fierce Kent State defense and Kent State has trouble scoring against anyone, so I would not be surprised to see a 20-17 Kent State win. This game opened at 43.5 and was bet down immediately and now sits at 42.5 or 43, despite 65% of all bets on the over while Kent State went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite. There is a correlation here between KS for the win and the under. I really like the under and therefore I also like Kent State for the win. For now, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[YOUNGBUCK]

How do u feel ab Ohio as a side LTA

[Love The Action]

How do u feel ab Ohio as a side LTA

I think temple a tad overpriced and I do lean ohio. I have ohio set at +2.5, which is under the key number of 3. However, I would only play ohio at +4 or better. Good luck Buck!

[upscope]

Nice, over cashed early. . I recommend the ESPN program tonight unguarded on Chris Herren.

I got a call from a friend back home last night telling me I have to see this 50/50 on Chris Herron episode. You're the 2nd person to recommend this.

[upscope]

Play #3

Temple/Ohio over (47) 1x (Locked)

I know a lot of people think the under is the play, and I suppose I could make an argument that agrees with such assessment. However, I'm playing the contrarian side here and taking the over. I feel like I'm getting a good number compared to the market who mostly has 47.5 right now. Consequently, I locked it up now and am going to risk that it drops tomorrow as more money comes in the under because I am covering the key number of 47. Other than 41, 45 and 44, 47 is the most important key totals number in the 40's. I think a lot of people will look at Temple's defense and say how can you take an over in this game. However, I would ask why the books set this total so high. If you look at Bookmaker, they opened at 44 and it was bet up almost instantly to 47. The rest of the books opened up at 47 and that was bet up to 47.5, where most books sit as I type. All of this over action occurred despite most of the action coming in on the under at 40/60 split until late today when it started to even out a bit. Truthfully, my model doesn't really show too much value here. I actually have it set 48, so I would have much rather had this game at 44. Unfortunately, that number was never actually available. With most books, and especially the sharper books, opening this above the key numbers of 44 and 45, that tells me they are leaning over. Yes, you have a great defense in Temple, but you also have a really effective offense in Ohio playing at home. I think Ohio finds quite a bit of success tomorrow at home. If you look at the advanced stats, you are going to find the more complete team in Temple who is ranked 49th in Off F/+ and 11th in Def F/+, whereas Ohio is 44th in Off F/+ and 88th in Def F/+. However, if you look at OFEI stats, you have Ohio at 55th in the country and Temple at 70th, while DFEI shows Temple at 19th and Ohio at 78th. As far as S&P+, you have Temple ranked 43rd in Off S&P+ and 12th in Def S&P+, while Ohio is 57th and 67th respectively. I do find it a bit worrisome that Temple is such a great time of possession team ranked in the top 5 nationally, however, Ohio is ranked in 87th. Therefore, even though Temple will try to hold the ball, Ohio will be operating up tempo. With Ohio having a weaker defense, I am expecting Temple to gash them for some big plays on the ground and through the air via play action. Both teams' scoring offenses are interestingly solid, with Ohio scoring around 31 ppg while Temple is at 28. Both teams also have intimidating scoring defenses with Temple holding teams to 10 ppg and Ohio to 20 ppg. Nevertheless, something has to give in this game and I think it's the defense for both teams. 47 isn't exactly the biggest total for a college game and both teams have solid special teams with Temple ranked 19th in STE and Ohio at 31st, with Ohio having a really solid field goal kicker and Temple being a bit more average. However, both teams have solid return games and I would not be surprised to see some solid returns leading to good field position. I have to admit, I am basing this play a bit more on line interpretation than I usually do. As I said, I have this one at 48, so it's not like there is a ton of value here. However, my gut says this one gets into the 50's just like the last two matchups between these two teams over the last two years. In addition, Temple has played to 8 straight unders against weak offenses, with most games coming within just a few points of the posted total. One of my friends plays these type of "due for" trends, where once a team gets up to the 7th or 8th straight game in a row playing to the over or under, he starts chasing the other side. I actually give some credence to that in this case because of the offensively weak teams that Temple has played in comparison to the offense they will face tomorrow in Ohio. Therefore, based on the books opening above the key numbers of 44 and 45 telling me they lean over, the early money on the over, the strength of both teams offense, the weakness of Ohio's defense, the strength of both teams' special teams play, solid kicking games, the "due for" over trend pending for Temple and the fact that we are covering the key number of 47, I am going to roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

That's a fantastic write UP

[Donnie Brasco]

Boy last night hurt. Luckily i was on the over as well. How do u account for 2 kickreturns for tds in ur model. Toledo's def is downright awful. But on to the next. I have temple by six tonight so i will be on them -3.5. I was all over the under, as i had it at 43, but i am laying off completely. Good luck!

[Donnie Brasco]

My line is way off on e. mich? U looked at it yet?

[DerekMadden]

What do you think about a tease with Ohio to +9 and the Over to 41?

[suicidekings]

It would appear that when the limits went up this morning for tonight's game, the Under got hit almost everywhere, dropping a full point

[Love The Action]

It would appear that when the limits went up this morning for tonight's game, the Under got hit almost everywhere, dropping a full point

Certainly possible that early money was on the over simply for a buy back on the under at a better number. However, if that were the case, I think the buyback would have been bigger and we would have seen a drop below 46.5. At this point, I am starting to see pinny and 5d juice the over a bit at 46.5 & my sharper book that generall follows their lines still has 47.

I think late money will paint a clearer picture. If this one drops below the 46 to 45 range, my over ticket is in serious jeaopardy. If the number stays around 46 or above, then I would not be too worried. As of right now, I think it premature to get too consternated over this morning's move.

What are you playing? Good luck

[Love The Action]

What do you think about a tease with Ohio to +9 and the Over to 41?

I personally like it...but you gotta do what you gotta do. Good luck

[lfep]

LTA, if it drops to 46, possibly 45.5, would you consider the under, or still go with the over? What are your limits to go over and/or under?

I've personally got the under up until 42, according to my models, but been hearing a lot about the over the past 24 hours. Would like to hear more thoughts??

[Love The Action]

LTA, if it drops to 46, possibly 45.5, would you consider the under, or still go with the over? What are your limits to go over and/or under?

I've personally got the under up until 42, according to my models, but been hearing a lot about the over the past 24 hours. Would like to hear more thoughts??

Im on the over and stand behind it regardless of line movement. If the line moves lower, it will simply piss me off that I incorrectly projected the line movement and jumped on it too early instead of waiting.

[suicidekings]

Certainly possible that early money was on the over simply for a buy back on the under at a better number. However, if that were the case, I think the buyback would have been bigger and we would have seen a drop below 46.5. At this point, I am starting to see pinny and 5d juice the over a bit at 46.5 & my sharper book that generall follows their lines still has 47.

I think late money will paint a clearer picture. If this one drops below the 46 to 45 range, my over ticket is in serious jeaopardy. If the number stays around 46 or above, then I would not be too worried. As of right now, I think it premature to get too consternated over this morning's move.

What are you playing? Good luck

I was going to wait for the total to hit 48 and then play a small parlay of Temple ML/Under 48, but for now I'm just waiting on it. I might just roll with Temple -3.5. I make the line to be Temple -5.5 so I don't like Ohio at all. They had one quality win this year against Marshall, a loss to the superior Rutgers, and have otherwise just been floundering against inferior teams.

I think far too much is being made of the deficiencies in Temple's passing game in this matchup. They have 2 superior running backs to work with and Ohio's rush defense numbers might appear good on paper, but look at who they've been shutting down at the line... New Mexico State (#95th in rushing, 121ypg), Marshall (#102nd, 118ypg), Rutgers (#112th, 99ypg), Kent State (#118th, 84ypg), Buffalo (#86th, 136ypg), Ball State (#70th, 148ypg), Akron (98th, 120ypg). I mean... almost any defensive line would come out of that looking impressive. Ohio currently ranks 30th in run defense, giving up 118ypg, but to me that's a highly questionable stat. They have zero games against a legit running corps and lost a lot of experience in the D-Line last season.

If I'm Steve Addazio, I go to Pierce and Brown early and often and really test the Ohio defensive line. I think it's much weaker than it appears. If/when Solich stacks the box, operate an extended running game with short outlet passes to the perimeter, or even opt for a direct snap / Wildcat to mix up the formations Ohio has to defend. Anything to get the ball out to the edge and force Ohio to keep their defense spread out without expecting the Temple QBs to play above their talent level, and instead putting the ball into the hands of their most talented offensive players.

[alamo]

Line down to 45 guys.

[NEOHsports4life]

Just threw wager on the UNDER it is! 550/500

[Love The Action]

Line down to 45 guys.

Personally, I don't see 45 anywhere. Most books hanging the hook at 45.5 with a juiced over. With that said, I wish I would have waited. As I stated in my writeup, I took a calculated risk locking it in yesterday because I wanted coverage on the key number of 47 which I got. However, I did misread todays market which is unfortunate. That is rare for me. Nevertheless, we have lost a lot of plays in which we killed the closer over the last three weeks, so hopefully we get some payback and cash this one. Despite the line move, I am still firmly behind the over. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Just threw wager on the UNDER it is! 550/500

Good luck. But you got a bad number if you just locked it in. Should have locked it in yesterday if you were on the under.

[No coincidences]

I have the over 45.5 for 3U LTA. I'm not an over player by any means, but fairly confident in this one.

[Love The Action]

Line down to 45 guys.

Pinny just jumped back up to 46.5 before kick

[Love The Action]

I have the over 45.5 for 3U LTA. I'm not an over player by any means, but fairly confident in this one.

Good luck