LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

Tulane +34 locked 1x
My model has this one at 28.6, so i am happy to grab almost an extra td in value. I don't expect to see too much defense, so a backdoor cover wont surprise me. Also tulane can score. This number is inflated for case keenam on tv, so i like the home dog getting less than 10% public bets.

Ohio/cmich under 60 1x
Think this number is inflated as my model has this at 56. Grabbing the 4 points of value and fading another huge public wager.

Best of luck boys

[shocktopme]

.

You on over or under 44 tonight LTA??

[SimonSayz]

You on over or under 44 tonight LTA??

Post 1011.

[ManBearPig]

Where'd u find ur totals key #'s?

Here...

No matter what you may hear...the books do pay attention to these and they should be a factor in your capping.

Key Margins of victory in NCAAF (from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 4, 21, 2, 1, 6, 24, 5, 8, 11, 28 , 20
Key Final Scores in NCAAF (from most significant by occurrence to least): 51, 41, 59, 45, 52, 48, 55, 44, 58, 37, 47, 38, 49, 65, 54, 62, 34, 61, 66, 30, 63, 31

[Donnie Brasco]

Thanks mbp. What is ur avatar!

[Dexter]

Tulane +34 locked 1x
My model has this one at 28.6, so i am happy to grab almost an extra td in value. I don't expect to see too much defense, so a backdoor cover wont surprise me. Also tulane can score. This number is inflated for case keenam on tv, so i like the home dog getting less than 10% public bets.

im not sure tulane can score - thats what is scaring me a bit on this over. they are averaging 19ppg in their last 5.

does anyone know if they run a "hurry up"? i dont believe so..

[ManBearPig]

Thanks mbp. What is ur avatar!

NP...not sure I just call it the MBP1000

[BiffTFinancial]

im not sure tulane can score - thats what is scaring me a bit on this over. they are averaging 19ppg in their last 5. does anyone know if they run a "hurry up"? i dont believe so..

they do not. i'm thinking about Houston TT over.

[SlickRick1382]

Here... No matter what you may hear...the books do pay attention to these and they should be a factor in your capping. Key Margins of victory in NCAAF (from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 14, 17, 4, 21, 2, 1, 6, 24, 5, 8, 11, 28 , 20 Key Final Scores in NCAAF (from most significant by occurrence to least): 51, 41, 59, 45, 52, 48, 55, 44, 58, 37, 47, 38, 49, 65, 54, 62, 34, 61, 66, 30, 63, 31

Thanks for the info !!!!

You don't happen to have the % chance that those numbers hit individually by any chance do you?

[Love The Action]

Game total scoring, by frequency

Total Occurrence Pct. 51 209 3.12% 59 206 3.07% 41 205 3.06% 45 196 2.92% 55 188 2.8% 52 185 2.76% 44 182 2.72% 48 182 2.72% 58 175 2.61% 37 163 2.43% 47 163 2.43% 49 147 2.19% 38 142 2.12% 65 138 2.06% 54 135 2.01% 62 132 1.97% 34 119 1.78% 66 118 1.76% 61 114 1.7% 69 113 1.69% 63 109 1.63% 30 107 1.6% 43 106 1.58% 40 104 1.55% 57 103 1.54% 50 102 1.52% 31 101 1.51% 27 100 1.49% 73 100 1.49% 33 97 1.45% 42 95 1.42% 56 92 1.37% 53 91 1.36% 68 91 1.36% 64 88 1.31% 35 84 1.25% 72 84 1.25% 71 77 1.15% 60 74 1.1% 46 72 1.07% 36 71 1.06% 76 71 1.06% 23 70 1.04% 75 68 1.01% 77 66 0.98% 79 66 0.98% 24 65 0.97% 29 61 0.91% 70 61 0.91% 67 57 0.85% 26 55 0.82% 39 53 0.79% 80 53 0.79% 83 46 0.69% 28 37 0.55% 20 35 0.52% 32 35 0.52% 87 34 0.51% 74 32 0.48% 85 30 0.45% 90 29 0.43% 82 27 0.4% 78 26 0.39% 16 25 0.37% 84 24 0.36% 22 23 0.34% 89 23 0.34% 91 23 0.34% 21 21 0.31% 17 20 0.3% 19 20 0.3% 93 20 0.3% 86 17 0.25% 25 16 0.24% 81 16 0.24% 88 11 0.16% 92 11 0.16% 97 10 0.15% 94 9 0.13% 98 9 0.13% 15 8 0.12% 12 7 0.1% 95 7 0.1% 100 7 0.1% 102 7 0.1% 105 7 0.1% 10 6 0.09% 103 6 0.09% 7 5 0.07% 13 5 0.07% 96 5 0.07% 107 5 0.07% 3 4 0.06% 99 4 0.06% 104 4 0.06% 117 4 0.06% 9 3 0.04% 101 3 0.04% 108 3 0.04% 14 2 0.03% 18 2 0.03% 109 2 0.03% 111 2 0.03% 114 2 0.03% 115 2 0.03% 136 2 0.03% 5 1 0.01% 6 1 0.01% 106 1 0.01% 110 1 0.01% 112 1 0.01% 116 1 0.01% 118 1 0.01% 123 1 0.01% 127 1 0.01% 128 1 0.01% 132 1 0.01% 133 1 0.01% 134 1 0.01%

It comes out all jumbled, but the first number is the final total, followed by the total number of times that total has hit since 2001, followed by the percentage.

[Love The Action]

Margin of victory, by frequency

Margin Occurrence Pct. 3 633 9.44% 7 475 7.09% 10 295 4.4% 14 278 4.15% 4 258 3.85% 17 256 3.82% 21 254 3.79% 1 219 3.27% 6 208 3.1% 2 207 3.09% 24 190 2.83% 5 185 2.76% 8 170 2.54% 28 169 2.52% 11 160 2.39% 18 159 2.37% 20 154 2.3% 31 151 2.25% 25 135 2.01% 27 127 1.89% 13 126 1.88% 35 122 1.82% 12 106 1.58% 19 99 1.48% 16 97 1.45% 23 91 1.36% 22 88 1.31% 34 84 1.25% 38 84 1.25% 9 83 1.24% 32 80 1.19% 30 79 1.18% 15 74 1.1% 26 70 1.04% 42 68 1.01% 45 54 0.81% 29 46 0.69% 37 46 0.69% 41 46 0.69% 39 44 0.66% 36 36 0.54% 33 35 0.52% 48 33 0.49% 49 31 0.46% 44 29 0.43% 46 25 0.37% 52 25 0.37% 53 20 0.3% 40 17 0.25% 51 16 0.24% 47 15 0.22% 43 14 0.21% 59 14 0.21% 56 13 0.19% 50 12 0.18% 55 9 0.13% 58 9 0.13% 63 9 0.13% 62 6 0.09% 69 4 0.06% 54 3 0.04% 57 3 0.04% 60 2 0.03% 65 2 0.03% 66 2 0.03% 68 2 0.03% 61 1 0.01% 64 1 0.01% 70 1 0.01% 72 1 0.01% 73 1 0.01% 77 1 0.01%


It comes out all jumbled, but the first number is the margin of victory, followed by the total number of times that number has hit since 2001, followed by the percentage.

[Love The Action]

Paterno fired. It's about time. His failure to act on direct knowledge of nefarious behavior is inexcusable.

[ManBearPig]

LTA...those look like the NFL key number %'s - here's what I have for NFL. Although the numbers are similar the totals are a bit different due to the tendency for more scoring, but I don't have the exact percentages. Mine are shown in order of significance so the ones in front are more likely to occur.

Key Margins of victory in NFL(from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1
Key Final Scores in NFL(from most significant by occurrence to least): 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43, 33, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 23, 55, 34, 38

[Love The Action]

LTA...those look like the NFL key number %'s - here's what I have for NFL. Although the numbers are similar the totals are a bit different due to the tendency for more scoring, but I don't have the exact percentages. Mine are shown in order of significance so the ones in front are more likely to occur.

Key Margins of victory in NFL(from most significant by occurrence to least): 3, 7, 10, 6, 4, 14, 1
Key Final Scores in NFL(from most significant by occurrence to least): 41, 37, 44, 51, 40, 43, 33, 47, 30, 48, 27, 45, 23, 55, 34, 38

You're right, I originally used the NFL numbers. Fixed it...thanks. Had my two threads mixed up for a minute

[blackeyeshamus]

good call on the hook in philly tonight...
made my day! early I wagered miami/oh +13 1x and UNDER 45 @ -120 1x.
later on, added miami/oh +13 1x and UNDER 44.5 @ -110 1x.
forgot to "buy the hook" late, because I very rarely do "buy the hook"-
so I'm 2-1-1 for +.90 units on the day. thanks, LTA. good luck, sir!

[Overbettor]

I dont know much about college hoops and am looking to tail. Im wondering how well you did last year lta as you seem to have a well deserved following.

[Overbettor]

Im relatively new to this forum but thus far I love it. I was wondering what your thoughts on houston tulane total are. Clearly im liking the over. Any insights would be greatly appreciated.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) PUSH
I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

[shooms79]

Thanks LTA for all your hard work and STILL grinding it out week after week. Class act. Ill ride with you on the correlated teaser.

[ManBearPig]

Did you see this from Ashton Kutcher tonight? He took a shit storm for this...in fact he may never live it down. Gather fact before you make blind statements...you'd figure someone like him would know this...FAIL

@aplusk: How do you fire Jo Pa? #insult #noclass as a hawkeye fan I find it in poor taste

[Pickem2win]

Tulane +34 locked 1x
My model has this one at 28.6, so i am happy to grab almost an extra td in value. I don't expect to see too much defense, so a backdoor cover wont surprise me. Also tulane can score. This number is inflated for case keenam on tv, so i like the home dog getting less than 10% public bets.

Ohio/cmich under 60 1x
Think this number is inflated as my model has this at 56. Grabbing the 4 points of value and fading another huge public wager.

Best of luck boys

I dont know how your model has this at 28.6. Houston is averaging 63 points of offense over their past 4 CUSA games and is allowing 20 points--Average margin of victory of 43 points but that is against tougher opponents than the lowly 2-8 Tulane who has lost 7 games in a row by an average of 24 points.

Their last 4 games:
UTEP (who is 4-5) 44-7 Loss at home--37 pt loss
Memphis (who is 2-7) 33-17 Loss at home--16 pt loss
East Carolina (who is 4-5) 34-13 Loss on the road--21 pt loss
Southern Methodist (who is 6-3) 45-24 Loss on the road--21 pt loss

None of these opponents are in the league that Houston is this year who is 9-0. Personally I think this one will will be 59-17 and Houston will cover the spread.

[suicidekings]

Play #5Correlated Teaser: Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

I like this one a lot. I'm playing it as well, and a GT ML / O48 parlay for a smaller amount.

[Redscot]

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

On em both LTA, you know I love that teaser . Keep them coming bro

[BiffTFinancial]

Did you see this from Ashton Kutcher tonight? He took a shit storm for this...in fact he may never live it down. Gather fact before you make blind statements...you'd figure someone like him would know this...FAIL

fkn loser should shut up and go back to cheating on his wife.

[Love The Action]

Did you see this from Ashton Kutcher tonight? He took a shit storm for this...in fact he may never live it down. Gather fact before you make blind statements...you'd figure someone like him would know this...FAIL

Just another stupid, uninformed comment from another stupid, uninformed celebrity.

Nothing, however, is as stupid as rioting because penn state finally did the right thing and fired the old man. I had already lost all respect for penn states administration. Now I have lost all respect for their student body as well. Fuking morons....read the grand jury statement and timeline and theres no way could allow paterno to continue in his role as coach.

[Overbettor]

Good stuff lta. Ive won two out of my last three after a horrible sunday and hope to keep it going tonight with vtu over. Im also leaning over 71.5 in houston game cuz im leary of the lofty spread. Good luck everyone

[SimonSayz]

What up LTA, I like the teaser for georgia tech. I would like to try and get a ten point teaser, Possibly involving houston....over. Any thoughts about that game?

[Love The Action]

I like this one a lot. I'm playing it as well, and a GT ML / O48 parlay for a smaller amount.

Good luck SK

[Love The Action]

What up LTA, I like the teaser for georgia tech. I would like to try and get a ten point teaser, Possibly involving houston....over. Any thoughts about that game?

No play on the Houston game. I don't doubt Houston's ability to cover the big spread, however, that's such a big spread for an away game that I will pass. Last week I jumped all over Houston at -27.5 against UAB on the road. This week, they are -34.5 on the road against Tulane which is a better team than UAB and puts the "tax" that books are putting on Houston right now into perspective. They are a bit overvalued here, so I would not play Houston. I also don't have a lean on the over because of Tulane's inability to score. Even though Houston could cover the total on their own, it's tough to take such a high total where the other team is offensively inept. It basically requires that Houston play a perfect game and convert points on every possession. I think the posted side and totals in both the Ohio/Central Michigan and Houston/Tulane game are pretty accurate so I am going to lay off of both.

As far as 10 pt teasers, I really can't recommend those unless it's simply a fun action wager without a lot of money on the line. The odds are such that those are losing wagers over time so I don't play them. The only teasers I generally play are two team "Wong eligible" teasers or same game correlated teasers like the GT/over play today.

Good luck Simon...I hope you cash all of your plays

[Love The Action]

On em both LTA, you know I love that teaser . Keep them coming bro

Good luck buddy

[Donnie Brasco]

Loving the line move on the vatech over! I am however on vatech @pk. Vatechs rushing def is ridiculous, and i just cant trust gatech. Jeckyll and hyde with them. Best of luck for the weekend!

[Love The Action]

Loving the line move on the vatech over! I am however on vatech @pk. Vatechs rushing def is ridiculous, and i just cant trust gatech. Jeckyll and hyde with them. Best of luck for the weekend!

I'm not so sure about that...at least statistically. Admittedly, I've only watch one Vtech game -- albeit one in which they did not play particularly well against Miami where they gave up 236 yards at 6.1 yds/rush -- but the stats say this is not that great of a rushing defense.

They are ranked in the 30's against the rush in S&P+, and they also allow 155 yards per game which is good for 64th in the country. Am I missing something? What makes Vtech so great against the run that people think they are going to shut down one of the best rushing and most complicated offenses in the country?

[Trivial]

Well. I am now refered to a respiralogist. Need to go for 6 tests before Nov 24 to be discussed on Nov 24.

The good news is I can wager now, but limited amounts and we agreed that I won't watch any game, and just check the score to reduce stress. Likely will only bet on night games so I can go to bed and not watch the score on my phone.

So now I can only get +1 and OVER 50. I think it is still good and under the key 51?

[upscope]

Good stuff lta. Ive won two out of my last three after a horrible sunday and hope to keep it going tonight with vtu over. Im also leaning over 71.5 in houston game cuz im leary of the lofty spread. Good luck everyone

Over 71.5?? That totals UP to 77 now.

[Overbettor]

That's where it stood when I posted but my local has it at 75 currently. I've taken over 49 in tech game and am still debating anything further.