LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Donnie Brasco]

I'm not so sure about that...at least statistically. Admittedly, I've only watch one Vtech game -- albeit one in which they did not play particularly well against Miami where they gave up 236 yards at 6.1 yds/rush -- but the stats say this is not that great of a rushing defense.

They are ranked in the 30's against the rush in S&P+, and they also allow 155 yards per game which is good for 64th in the country. Am I missing something? What makes Vtech so great against the run that people think they are going to shut down one of the best rushing and most complicated offenses in the country?

They are allowing 37.5 rushing yards per game on the road! That is tops in the country! Avg yds per rush @ 2.9.
Their road pas def ranks 41, but will be facing the 103rd pass offense so that is no threat.

[Donnie Brasco]

If u look at their F+ and s/p+ statistics which take in to account opponents played as im sure you know vatech is F+ 13th, s/p+ 11th, off F+ 35th and def f+ 13th. Gatech ranks 15th, 19th, 17th and 34th respectively.

[Love The Action]

Well. I am now refered to a respiralogist. Need to go for 6 tests before Nov 24 to be discussed on Nov 24.

The good news is I can wager now, but limited amounts and we agreed that I won't watch any game, and just check the score to reduce stress. Likely will only bet on night games so I can go to bed and not watch the score on my phone.

So now I can only get +1 and OVER 50. I think it is still good and under the key 51?

Feel better

[Love The Action]

They are allowing 37.5 rushing yards per game on the road! That is tops in the country! Avg yds per rush @ 2.9.

Come on Donnie, I hope you are not serious. You can't judge a team's rush defense and say it's great just because it has played well on the road against teams that are not anywhere near either (1) as good overall as GT or (2) anywhere near as good a rushing team as GT.

On the road, VT has played Duke, Wake Forest, Marhall and East Carolina. NONE of those teams have good rushing attacks, much less anywhere near what VTech will face tonight from GT. I think that stat is completely irrelevant.

Their road pas def ranks 41, but will be facing the 103rd pass offense so that is no threat.

OK, but we were strictly talking about VTech's rush defense. Anyway, GT has a very similarly ranked pass defense with respect to advanced efficiency stats. Finally, GT's passing attack is completely predicated on the triple option pass/run fake system. The triple option pass system is very dangerous because it opens up big plays. That is why Stephen Hill is averaging 30 yards per catch which is tops in the whole NCAAF. VaTech has not faced the triple option yet this year. Don't be surprised to see GTech gash VaTech all night long on the ground and execute some big plays through the air.

If u look at their F+ and s/p+ statistics which take in to account opponents played as im sure you know vatech is F+ 13th, s/p+ 11th, off F+ 35th and def f+ 13th. Gatech ranks 15th, 19th, 17th and 34th respectively.

That's irrelevant though, because we were strictly discussing VaTech's rush defense. Gtech actually has better or similar to overall rankings in many of the advanced statistical categories, including some of the ones you mentioned above. Plus, they are playing at home with that dangerous triple option.

Regardless, the original discussion was about VaTech's rushing defense. I think you are overrating the ability of VaTech to stop the run tonight. Gtech will give them big problems on the ground and through the air. I'm contemplating adding a play on Gtech, in addition to the play on the over and teaser, the more I think about it.

Good luck

[Donnie Brasco]

U too brother! Why no respect from vegas on their home field?

[Love The Action]

U too brother! Why no respect from vegas on their home field?

Because of public perception that thinks VaTech is better than they really are. Remember, the books aren't setting lines based on what they think will actually happen, their lines are based on the best way to entice balanced action. I have this game with GT -2. If the books opened VaTech at +2, they would have gotten slammed with VaTech money, even more than they already did by openeing them at -1.

Bottom line is that this is the biggest of the three games tonight and the books know VaTech is going to have plenty of support and people were going to bet VaTech no matter what. Therefore, they opened with a little better line on GT in order to get that balanced action that ensures them a profit. Consequently, GT backers such as myself get a solid team, playing at home in a good situational spot at +1 instead of the -2 I expected. Thus, value on GT.

Let's get that over. If I don't play GT, I'll be rooting for you

[suicidekings]

I'm not so sure about that...at least statistically. Admittedly, I've only watch one Vtech game -- albeit one in which they did not play particularly well against Miami where they gave up 236 yards at 6.1 yds/rush -- but the stats say this is not that great of a rushing defense.

They are ranked in the 30's against the rush in S&P+, and they also allow 155 yards per game which is good for 64th in the country. Am I missing something? What makes Vtech so great against the run that people think they are going to shut down one of the best rushing and most complicated offenses in the country?

In gross rushing yardage, they are 7th best @ 86 yards per game on the ground. However that's come against very weak running teams (6 of their 8 FBS opponents are below average rushing teams). On the season, those 8 teams are averaging 130 rushing yards per game. So VTech has not been tested in this regard yet by anything comparable to GTech's run game.

[Love The Action]

Over 71.5?? That totals UP to 77 now.

Dude...that number is insane. I have this one at 74. I'm almost tempted to take the under.

The only problem is that you would have to have your head examined to take an under in a Houston game because they can put up 70 on their own. However, 77 points requires almost perfect offensive execution from Houston and probably 3 td's from Tulane.

It's sort of hard not to take the field goal of value here and make an action wager on the under at the very least. If this one hits 78, I might have to pull the trigger. I just think that's way too much for a Tulane game....

[Donnie Brasco]

Because of public perception that thinks VaTech is better than they really are. Remember, the books aren't setting lines based on what they think will actually happen, their lines are based on the best way to entice balanced action. I have this game with GT -2. If the books opened VaTech at +2, they would have gotten slammed with VaTech money, even more than they already did by openeing them at -1.

Bottom line is that this is the biggest of the three games tonight and the books know VaTech is going to have plenty of support and people were going to bet VaTech no matter what. Therefore, they opened with a little better line on GT in order to get that balanced action that ensures them a profit. Consequently, GT backers such as myself get a solid team, playing at home in a good situational spot at +1 instead of the -2 I expected. Thus, value on GT.

Let's get that over. If I don't play GT, I'll be rooting for you

You are the jedi masterI give! UNCLE! I have two other plays booked i want ur opinion in as time allows: kstate +4.5 and miami +9.
My card so far:
Ohio under 60
Kstate over 48.5
Kstate +4.5
Miami +9
Uva -10
Tulane +34
Iowa +2
Nebraska -2.5
Mich -1
Standord -3.5

[Trivial]

Feel better

Thank you my friend. I locked in for over 49.5 and therefore over 43.5 in the teaser play you have.

[SlickRick1382]

Dude...that number is insane. I have this one at 74. I'm almost tempted to take the under. The only problem is that you would have to have your head examined to take an under in a Houston game because they can put up 70 on their own. However, 77 points requires almost perfect offensive execution from Houston and probably 3 td's from Tulane. It's sort of hard not to take the field goal of value here and make an action wager on the under at the very least. If this one hits 78, I might have to pull the trigger. I just think that's way too much for a Tulane game....

Do you think the Team Total O/U on Tulane at 21.5 has any value here with the under? or do you think they'll get more than 3 TD's?

[jimmy007oc]

Any thought abt Central Michigan tonight LTA.

[Donnie Brasco]

Nice move on the under in ohio game, 1.5 point move my way!

[jwes4907]

lta, whats the ytd for ncaaf? good luck btw, been following along

[balls2wall]

lta, whats the ytd for ncaaf? good luck btw, been following along

dude, I haven't been following this thread too closely, but saw your post and then went back two pages and found his record. It took me about 20 seconds to find it.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 11

Play #1

NIU/Bowling Green over (65) 2x (Locked) LOSS

I will probably play this for multiple units before it's all said and done, but I'm going to wait until tomorrow to get down any more. I want to see a move on the over when limits open up a tad first. However, this is very possibly a great 2x play opportunity here. I don't think we'll get multiple kick off returns like last week, but both qb's are highly rated and Schilz has one of the better arms in college to exploit that week NIU pass defense and weak defense overall. On the other side, I full expect Harnish to continue his spectacular season and lead his team to another 40 point effort. I see NIU getting at least 7 td's and Bowling green adding another 4 td's. Both offense are capable in this game despite some weak efforts by BG against tough defenses in Kent and Temple. This NIU offense isn't close to those big hitters and I expect NIU to give up points rather easily. I also expect them to also score pretty easily considering both teams have Def F/+, FEI and S&P+ rankings in high 90's to low 100's in all of college football. I expect a fast pace, with plenty of scoring opportunities and I'm rolling with the over for 1x now and perhaps more later. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan/Toledo over (68) 2x (Locked) WINNER

I'm rolling with 2x plays on both MAC games tonight. All four offenses are superior to the defenses including this game. If you check out tge advanced stats, they show a decent toledo defense until you look at the scoring defense and points allowed. Last week was no different and this week the number opened 2 points higher than when toledo faced niu. Both teams in this game have efficient quarterbacks and high scoring defenses with the ability to hit the big play. I have this one set at 70, so not quite as much value as in the niu game above, but some of the situational factors also point to the over and weather should not be a factor. I am running late for work so I have to cut this shorter than I wanted, but I really llike both overs tonight and I'm rolling with the over in this one for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Miami (OH)/Temple under (45)(-120) 1x (Locked) PUSH
I am going to buy the half point here and ensure myself coverage on the key number of 45, one of the four most important NCAAF key totals numbers. I would normally not buy the hook on an NCAAF total, but I am not going to have any time at work today to monitor line movement and I don't want to risk losing out on getting 45. There has been big movement on the over since opening at 42.5 and it's up to 44 or 44.5 at most books. It will probably get up to 45 at some point, but from there I think we see a drop and I don't think it will go higher than 45 or 45.5. I will spend a little extra in this rare instance to get coverage at 45. I know that Coyer is starting for temple and he's more of a run/pass threat than any other qb in the Temple offense. However, I feel that Miami's defense is one of the better defenses Temple will face this year ranked 58th overall in Def S&P+ and in the 40's in that same category against the rush. Just because Temple is playing Coyer, I don't think they get away from their core game plan of defense, ball control and running the clock. They are ranked third in the country in time of possession and run a very slow offense. It's rare for them to snap an offensive play with more than 5 seconds on the play clock and I expect them to return to a run-oriented attack this week after the loss, at home and against a team like Miami(OH) because of Miami's ability to pass with Dysert. Temple will look to control the clock here and will not turn into Western Michigan's up tempo offense. Without getting some big plays, which I expect both defenses to contain, this should be a methodical, slow paced MAC game (rare when compared to recent vintage). Even though Miami has a solid pass attack with Dysert, I don't see them finding much success tonight on the road against Temple's top 20 defense in F/+ and S&P+ defensive categories. This game opened up at 42.5 and was bought up to 44 or 44.5 where it sits now. I think it gets as high as 45 or 45.5 and then drops before kickoff as sharp money buys the under at that key number. I'm buying the hook now, because I'm going to have a crazy day at work and won't be able to watch the lines. I am hoping the line never hits 45, but I have to risk it because I won't have time at work. Either way, I'm happy getting 45 because I have this game set at 41 so I'll take the 4 points of value and cover the 45 number at rare -120 odds. You have 80% of all bets on the over, so it's never a bad thing to go against that sort of lopsided percentage and I do expect a move on the under at sometime before kickoff. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech over (49) 1x (Locked)

I really wanted to jump on this play at 48, but I just don't see it materializing so I'm going to lock it up now before it goes up. At some books, this number opened at 50 and came down to 49 while others like Pinny opened at 48.5 where it's juiced around -116 as I type. I just don't see this being a defensive struggle tomorrow. The S&P+ show that we have one team in Vtech with a decent rushing game, going against a defense in Gtech who is susceptible to the run which, while the Gtech rushing offense is one of the best in the game going against Vtech who is only ranked as the 34th best team Def Rushing S&P+. Even though both defenses are very tough against the pass from a defensive viewpoint and both employ a top 20 time possession offense, they both score over 29 points per game (with Gtech well into the 30's) and that is the offensive output range I expect tomorrow. The action on this game is relatively split with most books reporting a 55/45 split in the total action. However, I do expect a sure of over money at some point which pushes this one to 50 sometime before close. I have this one set 51 so we're only getting a couple points of value, but I like this play quite a bit nonetheless. Situationally, you have both teams coming off the bye week after Vtech struggled to barely beat a Duke team while Gtech knocked out Clemson. Two different style of wins and I expect both offenses to be prepared and sharp. Neither team is all that great as far as field goal kicking, which is a concern. However, all in all, this is probably my favorite play on the board and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #5

Correlated Teaser

Georgia Tech (+7)/Over 43 1.1x to win 1x

In addition to a play on the over, I am going to roll with the correlation I see here. The only way Vtech rolls in this one is if they contain the triple option on the road -- easier said than done. Just ask Clemson. I have this one set at -1 for Georgia Tech with GT having similar or even better overall F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, so I feel very good about teasing them to get them at +7 as I don't see this one being a blow out either way. I think this game is decided by 3 points or under, with quite a bit of scoring. By teasing up to the key number of 7, we are now covering the key numbers of 1, 3, 4 and getting a push on a 7 point final. Most of the action is split on the side in this one as well, but I expect the volume of bets to favor Vtech while the money wagered will favor Gtech as predicated on the line movement that I think we see drop this one to a PK. Based on the foregoing, I am going to roll with the 6 pt correlated tease of Gtech and the over. Good luck.

Play #6

Georgia Tech (+2) 1x (Locked)

I'll take the bait. As I stated above, I have this one at -2, so I'm just getting too much value at this number to pass up. There's no way this one hits 3, so I actually think we see a closer around +1 as these +2's get bought up before kick. I just think these teams are closer in many categories than the line reflects. Most of my thoughts on this game can be seen above and I have to go feed the baby, so I will just say that I love GT and the over in this game, I've already locked in the over and a teaser with GT and the over, so I'm going to finalize the trifecta and roll with GT plus the points at home for 1x. Good luck .

[Love The Action]

Look like late money stayed on Vtech...we'll see. Maybe I'm undervaluing Logan Thomas and that Vtech defense, but I like this GT team at home tonight. We'll see who is right...good luck Gtech and over backers

[Love The Action]

I really like that Houston under at 78...just can't pull the trigger because...well...it's Houston.

[Overbettor]

Is anyone getting the vtu game on espn? Im at the hospital and all im finding is more and more coverage on paterno firing.

[pacocn]

Over the vtu/gtech game is on espn, been watching
it all night.

[Redscot]

Man, numnuts throwing that punch on the sack changed the momentum of the GTech game, nice hit on the over though

[Trivial]

1-1 on my first night back. Can't complain. I missed the G Tech +2 play.

Lookig forward to seeing any plays for tonight or pass.

[Love The Action]

Loving the line move on the vatech over! I am however on vatech @pk. Vatechs rushing def is ridiculous, and i just cant trust gatech. Jeckyll and hyde with them. Best of luck for the weekend!

Good call Donnie....although, I would say that GT handed VT the game with stupid penalties and rushed the ball pretty succesfully, but VT cashed it.

[Love The Action]

Man, numnuts throwing that punch on the sack changed the momentum of the GTech game, nice hit on the over though

Very frustrating....ever since saturday, every bad, stupid or unlucky play has had a direct result in a very disappointing week so far. Need a big weekend. Lost the under in MNF because of fumbles returned fot td's at the end if the 1h, missed a 4x night on tuesday because neither NIU or BG could score with 9 minutes left, pushed on Wednesday and that dumbass punch cost us at least 2-1 day, if not 3-0. Ugh....

[Love The Action]

1-1 on my first night back. Can't complain. I missed the G Tech +2 play.

Lookig forward to seeing any plays for tonight or pass.

Glad to have you back. Havent looked at tonights game yet...been crazy busy with regular work. What do you like?

I will post my thoughts later. Glad you are feeling better. Good luck.

[Trivial]

Glad to have you back. Havent looked at tonights game yet...been crazy busy with regular work. What do you like?

I will post my thoughts later. Glad you are feeling better. Good luck.

Leaning on the Over but not locked yet. Waiting to see the line. Not sure on the side. I do not have any good reasons for the over, but the usual.. Friday night, prime time, only game.

[Donnie Brasco]

Good call Donnie....although, I would say that GT handed VT the game with stupid penalties and rushed the ball pretty succesfully, but VT cashed it.

Just luck, lets get it this weekend! Nice pick on the over!

[jonathon1995]

I did 500 on Houston 2nd half, that is the 3rd week I have bet big on the 2nd half with them and won.

[Overbettor]

Thanks for the over last night lta. Honestly I don't think I would've looked twice at that otherwise. Looking forward to your plays tonight.

[Donnie Brasco]

Looking at tonights game, i have syracuse @pk/52.3. Looking at the advanced stats the only significant advantage i see is on offense. Usf ranks offs/p 26, rushing s/p 6, and passing s/p 50. Syracuse show as tremendous dropoff at 83, 87, and 71 respectively. The defensive dfei is almost a deadheat at 32nd vs. 35th, and def s/p 49th vs 56th. I dont see any value here on side or Total .Thoughts?

[Love The Action]

Fyi....no time for an official post, but I locked in 1x on the okst/ttech over at 78 earlier this morning. Will post it up later, but wanted to give you a heads up just in case anyone likes that play.

[jonathon1995]

Fyi....no time for an official post, but I locked in 1x on the okst/ttech over at 78 earlier this morning. Will post it up later, but wanted to give you a heads up just in case anyone likes that play.

I like that play, OKSU and the over has been a play all year for me. On this game I'm only playing the over. I figure its going to be up there around 90

[bonestock]

We all can thank Attaochu for single handedly throwing the GT game last night.

[Overbettor]

My guy has cuse at +6.5. I almost feel like I have to take the points. Only thing stopping me is their inability at times to put up points. Suggestions?

[Donnie Brasco]

6.5???? Wtf!!!