LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Dexter]

I dont know much about heritage. What do you think? Do they follow pinny type lines or are they more like a bodog or legends?

GL

dont know...just added them to my rotation of books since some of the others i had didnt seem to have accurate feeds.

up to 74 at legends. this one may end up in the 75/76 range. crushed the closer...

[SurveySaysIRock]

I'm liking the play LTA, in for 2 units. BOL everyone!

[Overbettor]

Hey LTA, can u recommend any books that may cover the finer points of sports handicapping? I know there are quite a few out there but was hoping you could help me narrow it down. Thank you in advance for your time.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, can u recommend any books that may cover the finer points of sports handicapping? I know there are quite a few out there but was hoping you could help me narrow it down. Thank you in advance for your time.

I like Conquering Risk and Sharp Sports Betting for starters....GL

[Moneyliner7]

$200 ball over 72 heritage. Good luck.

[petermans23]

Hi LTA!

Thanks for a great thread and great write ups every day!

I have been discussing the over/under ball state/northern illionois tonight. Know that you are hammering the over tonight and went in with 3 units which is quite a lot for you. Been following you for quite some time.

As said have been discussing this game with some other people on sbr forum. Would just like to know why you so strongly believe it will fly over tonight. The reason I´m asking you this again after reading your great write up for the over in tonights game are the following:

Is it possible that here have been some ridiculously high-scoring games in the MAC of late? And does that make it possible that odds makers have set the numbers too high in this game? We know that the betting public has been pounding the overs, including this one.

This line opened at 70.5 and has been bet up to 72.5 in most places. Northern Illinois was part of one of those really high-scoring games two weeks ago when they won at Toledo 63-60. But after that game they came back down to earth last week, winning 45-14 at Bowling Green in a game that went under the number.

And also is it possible that unlike Toledo, Ball State is not the same elite offensive team? Ball State are scoring 23.8 points/game while averaging 376.2 total yards/game. In 10 games this season, Ball State and their opponents have combined to score more than 72 points just once. That's a 9-1 (90%) system pertaining to tonight's total set.

With a lot on stake tonight, could it be that their defense is going to be a priority?

Northern Illinois sits in a first-place tie with Toledo atop the MAC West division, while Ball State trails both teams by only one game.

The under is 15-7-1 in Ball States last 23 road games. The under is 5-1 in Ball States last 6 Tuesday games. The under is 19-6-1 in Northern Illinois last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

If you have a chance LTA I would very much like to hear your comment regarding these facts.

Good luck on your bet on the over tonight.

PS. Saw that Dexter also was on the same bet for 5 units. Good luck to him to.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Northern Illinois will drop at least 45 tonight.

[Love The Action]

Hi LTA!

Thanks for a great thread and great write ups every day!

I have been discussing the over/under ball state/northern illionois tonight. Know that you are hammering the over tonight and went in with 3 units which is quite a lot for you. Been following you for quite some time.

As said have been discussing this game with some other people on sbr forum. Would just like to know why you so strongly believe it will fly over tonight. The reason I´m asking you this again after reading your great write up for the over in tonights game are the following:

Is it possible that here have been some ridiculously high-scoring games in the MAC of late? And does that make it possible that odds makers have set the numbers too high in this game? We know that the betting public has been pounding the overs, including this one.

This line opened at 70.5 and has been bet up to 72.5 in most places. Northern Illinois was part of one of those really high-scoring games two weeks ago when they won at Toledo 63-60. But after that game they came back down to earth last week, winning 45-14 at Bowling Green in a game that went under the number.

And also is it possible that unlike Toledo, Ball State is not the same elite offensive team? Ball State are scoring 23.8 points/game while averaging 376.2 total yards/game. In 10 games this season, Ball State and their opponents have combined to score more than 72 points just once. That's a 9-1 (90%) system pertaining to tonight's total set.

With a lot on stake tonight, could it be that their defense is going to be a priority?

Northern Illinois sits in a first-place tie with Toledo atop the MAC West division, while Ball State trails both teams by only one game.

The under is 15-7-1 in Ball States last 23 road games. The under is 5-1 in Ball States last 6 Tuesday games. The under is 19-6-1 in Northern Illinois last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.

If you have a chance LTA I would very much like to hear your comment regarding these facts.

Good luck on your bet on the over tonight.

PS. Saw that Dexter also was on the same bet for 5 units. Good luck to him
to.

Good luck to you as well.

Anything is possible and I am sure the oddsmakers are giving the over in this game special attention. However, niu has never had a game set in the 70's all season, despite them averaging 40 points per game all year. Why do you think the oddsmakers are waiting until week 12 of the season to FINALLY make this adjustment? I think this number is more indicative of their opinion on the game, in conjunction with their need to set lines in accordance with public perception. If there was "value" on the under in this game, early sharp money would have pounded the under. Instead, the total has moved 3 points in favor of the over all the way to 73.5. Therefore, unless sharps are waiting to buy the under right before gametime - which I highly doubt - the over is the clear play.

Finally, I put absolutely no importance or relevancy in the trends you mentioned. Whatever happened in previous seasons is completely irrelevant to this season. Other than knowing such trends exist, I would not place any importance on them and I recommend you remove them from your capping because they will only cloud your judgment. GL

[petermans23]

Thanks for your replay, LTA!

I see what you mean. Will be an interesting game.

[Ab34]

My book has it at 73 should I stay away?

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey bro, what do u think about trying to middle this thing? Got it at 70.5, now can get 73.5.

[Donnie Brasco]

Why is lsu off the board?

[Love The Action]

Hey bro, what do u think about trying to middle this thing? Got it at 70.5, now can get 73.5.

Your call...i like this one to sail over....

[YOUNGBUCK]

Bol tonight LTA no college ball for you?

[Love The Action]

Bol tonight LTA no college ball for you?

Not really...I've always concentrated on the NBA. Not sure what I'm going to do to supplement my profit stream. Maybe a hard core run at the NHL. Good luck to you as well

[Love The Action]

Damn...steaming under from high of 73.5...not good. Thankfully, they still have to play the game. Good luck.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Not really...I've always concentrated on the NBA. Not sure what I'm going to do to supplement my profit stream. Maybe a hard core run at the NHL. Good luck to you as well

Hate the nhl too much parity

[Love The Action]

Loving that Ball State establishing that offense early. Now let's see NIU answer with a TD and get this track meet off and running.

[Love The Action]

Hate the nhl too much parity

I'm a big totals guy, so I think I can profit at NHL. I had a model I worked on here and there in the past. I was hoping it would not be necessary to dust it off and get to work on it, but if the NBA is really done, I don't know where else I would turn until MLB returns. CBB is just too much for me...too many teams, too much player turnover with freshman and sophs leaving early and thus too much work for me. I like spot plays in CBB and that's about it.

I really thought the NBA would stop all this bitching with each other and get a deal done. Like most negotiations, I assumed the recent negative comments from both sides was merely posturing, but it sounds now like the season is really lost. It really pisses me off and saddens me at the same time. The ones that suffer most are the fans and sports investors. Screw the millionaires and billionaires....

[YouHave2outs]

Missed this play til the over got to 72.5 but still took it. Let's get it with another nice win tonight. GL LTA

[Love The Action]

Missed this play til the over got to 72.5 but still took it. Let's get it with another nice win tonight. GL LTA

That field goal at the end of the 1h was huge. Now we cash on 5 td's assuming all extra points are made. Can't complaint about where we're at...most books have a 2h total of 36 with a juice on the over indicating 2h money likes the over here.

[shocktopme]

.

McSweeny and Pauly on a great roll!!!!!!!Gonna tail them!!!!Thats my KC loss this week too!!!!!Good luck tonight bud

[YouHave2outs]

shocktop is disgusting. order up an ipa kid

[YouHave2outs]

Northern Illinois will drop at least 45 tonight.

almost.



gotta love the way this is turning out though so far. can't cap the fake punt for 70 yards or whatever that was.

folks

[YouHave2outs]

That field goal at the end of the 1h was huge. Now we cash on 5 td's assuming all extra points are made. Can't complaint about where we're at...most books have a 2h total of 36 with a juice on the over indicating 2h money likes the over here.

funny how you got me to sweat those last 2 extra points a little bit.


i'm catchin the LTA on a hot streak. tailed you for up just under 7x the last week and change.

[pacocn]

Lta, great call

[Dave88]

ka-ching!! $$$ Nice one LTA.

[GChild]

Thank you

[Overbettor]

Yet again you've made a believer out of me LTA. Great call and thanks.

[sym0]

Well done LTA, thanks for that.

[Moneyliner7]

Good job lta... 2-0 sbr with you

[petermans23]

Congratulation LTA!

Thanks to your wise words I went with the over and din´t in the end look any more to the statistics. Great call!

I stay away from collage basketball and nhl bpth win and over/under. Too hard too predict I think. But I like the nba and followed several of your great calls in the final miami-dallas.

Looking forward reading your write ups for wednesday night games.

Once again thanks!

[Ab34]

thanks lta!

[Redscot]

Nice job my man . Looking like a big stretch run ahead

[Trivial]

Well done LTA. Your hard work is paying off. Well deserved. Have a great day everyone.