LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

Big steam on Louisville/Uconn over...really liked the under there if I could get 41, but steam up to 42 sets off some alarms. Might have to lay off now....

[Prize Marlin]

Big steam on Louisville/Uconn over...really liked the under there if I could get 41, but steam up to 42 sets off some alarms. Might have to lay off now....

LTA, I have this over under line at 40.5.....which do you recommend??

[rcjiii]

LTA, do you have any thoughts on Texas vs k state?

[Love The Action]

LTA, do you have any thoughts on Texas vs k state?

Not really. No play for me.

[Love The Action]

LTA, I have this over under line at 40.5.....which do you recommend??

Can't recommend anything now. As I said, I liked the under, but it steamed all the way up to 42 from 40.5 in the matter of a couple minutes. That's the kind of line movement which makes you take note. What I wanted to see was the number go from 40.5 to 41, at which point I would have bought the under. I then would have expected it to drop below 41 before kick. However, it went from 40.5 and flew past 41 all the way to 42, so that's enough to lay off unless we see some late action on the under. GL

[Love The Action]

I have to leave pretty soon and will be out all day. I will have more plays and I will try to post them from my phone. Because of time reasons, they might not be in the usual format but I will make it clear that they are plays. Good luck today.

[GChild]

2-0 so far!!
Boom

[NowMillionaire]

Nice job LTA ! Thank you, let's hit 100% this week end

[Pick'nParlays]

Great call on that cinch rushers under!!!

I'm liking Oregon as well. Thoughts on Bsu/Sdsu? Should see some points there as well

[riffraff24]

Kent State covers!!! Thx LTA i needed a win badly!

[GChild]

Boom

3-0

[bonestock]

Good call on Kent St. What a close victory.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Play #4

Kent State (-3) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big fan of Kent State's defense and we'll back them again at home with a short spread. At Pinny, the side opened up at Kent -3 and was immediately bet up to 3.5 despite over 70% of the action at the time of the move being on Eastern Michigan. This is a solid line move in favor of Kent State and their defense is the reason is why. Kent State is ranked 14th, 30th and 24th in Def F/+, Def FEI and Def S&P+ respectively, whereas Eastern Michigan is 87th, 98th and 77th. Both offenses are pretty similar, with Kent State having a clear advantage in special teams as evidenced by Kent ranked 20th in STE and Easter Michigan ranked 87th. In a close game like this, field goal kicking could be key and Kent State has a clear advantage with Kent State's Cortez is ranked 35th in the nation hitting over 75% of all kicks and ranked 27th in FGE, whereas Eastern Michigan's Fulkerson hits under 57% of his attempts and ranks at the bottom in FGE. Kent is playing great football right now and has won three straight games, while covering convincingly in all three. I have Kent set at -7 favorites and we're getting 4 points of value here, so I'm rolling with Kent for 1x. I may also have a correlated teaser play in this game with the under. Good luck.

Play #5

Toledo/Central Michigan under (75) 1x (Locked) WINNER

The under started to steam a little bit, so I jumped on the 75 now rather than wait till later for 76 or better because I will not have time to watch the lines later today when the game starts (which is usually the best time to bet the under on a MAC game). After the steam, the number currently sits at 74 at most outlets and I would personally play the under at 73 or better. I have this game set at 69 and was surprised to see it open at 72 in most spots. That actually made me think I may be "off" in the way I set this game. However, rather than a lean to the over, I think the books are setting this one so high because of public perception about MAC overs and the recent high scoring games out of Toledo. Toledo has scored over 60 points in back to back games against NIU and WMU. That is very hard to do and it's not going to be easy for Toledo to match that sort of offensive output three games in a row. However, Central Michigan does not have the firepower of those other two offenses and Toledo actually has a very stout defense according to the advanced stats. Even though they have given up a lot of points recently, Toledo's overall defensive stats are very good with an overall defensive F/+ rating ranked 44th nationally and a 50th rated defense according to S+P+ efficiency ratings. Even though Central Michigan has a horrible defense, and have been an over machine going 8-3 in favor of the over on the season, they have not had a game set in the 70's all year and the only games they played over 71 points was against Norther Illinois when the game ended with a total of 89. This is a really high total for these two teams and I don't think it gets there. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Arizona/Arizona State over (68.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup right now, but you have two top 50 offenses in F/+, FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers. Even though AZST has a decent defense, I expect both offenses to stick with a fast paced pass orientated attack with Foles and Osweiller. I have this game at 71 and would play it all the way up to 70 as I expect this one to hit the high 70's or low 80's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Georgia Tech/Duke over (56.5) 1x (Locked)

I don't have much time for a writeup and I'm not a big fan of playing games with the hook, but I take on that risk in both this play and the AZ over. I have this game set at 61, so I have to roll with the over here. I do respect Duke's defense at home as evidence by a great performance against Vtech. However, in this game, I think they have a tough time stopping the triple option and I expect Gtech's top ten offense to be quite effective. On the other hand, with Duke playing at home, I expect Renfree and that spread offense to get us 3 or 4 touchdowns on Saturday. I think this game is reminiscent of GT's early season games where we saw GT get out to some early scores and let the other team stay in the game with some easy points. I love the value here and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #8

USC/Oregon over (68) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups because I'm leaving for the day pretty soon. I should have quite a few plays coming up. I locked this one in last night. Looks like it's up to 68.5 now and I would take it all the way up to 69. Even though both defenses are athletic and stingy, the offenses will be marquee tonight at Oregon. I expect a quick tempo from Oregon, USC to throw the ball vertically to open up some running lanes and this game to be a competitive game that flies over the posted total into the 70's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Cincinatti/Rutgers under (47) 1x (Locked)

This one may end up a 2x play. I like Rutgers defense to frustrate Cincinnati QB Legraux in his first real start for Collaros who is out with an injury. Rutgers is a top 10 ranked defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency ratings, while Cincinnati is top 35. Rutgers likes to dominate the time of possession battle and that strategy bodes well today in some windy weather. I have this one at 47 with Collaros playing, therefore, you take him out of this game and I love the value here as he should have at least a 2 point affect if not 3 point affect on this game as a veteran QB. I am rolling
with the under for 1x and might add to that stake. Good luck.

Play #10

Vanderbilt/Tennessee under (45.5) 1x (Locked)

Card final. Good luck.

[Pelt]

Thank you sir. 3-0 so far today. You are the best!!

[thortada]

thanks for your picks LTA. been tailing you on every bet but just don't post on the forum much. after last week, i knew you'd bounce back. keep up the work

[Love The Action]

LeMichael James is a sissy. As of right now, I would say he's too fragile aka soft for the NFL. I can't believe he fumbled on that weak hit before the half. That was an easy TD situation and he blew it. That could have very well cost us the over.

[Love The Action]

This Vandy game is unreal. Two pick 6's and then then call a penalty on a blocked fg, which ends up in a Tenn td instead. I'm watching this shit at the bar and trying not to get too pissed

[Trivial]

Ah crap. That interception even hurt even more. Was hoping for a last second field goal to end the game.

Now, overtime. Crap.

[Love The Action]

What happened in that AZ/AZST over? 38 points at halftime and only 58 for the game? The third quarter killed us...only 3 points. They scored 21 points in the 1st quarter and 17 points in the 2nd and 4th quarters.....

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12 Recap

7 - 3 = +5.7x

Could have easily been 9-1 this week if the ball bounced just a bit differently in that Tennessee under and AZ over. Solid week though.

NCAAF 2011-2012 Season

64 - 67 = -0.25x

Time to make a big run over these final two weeks of the regular season and bowl season. Hopefully, all of those horrible beats that we suffered earlier in the year will even out and we will end the regular season and bowl season on a big run! GL

[Ab34]

like any nfl plays today lta?

[captrobey]

Hey LTA

Yea was thinking that too about the AZ over. I hate losses like that . I had Penn St over too . Over for first half and for the game. They only needed a TD in the 2nd half for me to win and of course they did not score a single point. The AZ i had the 1st half and the game over . That late field goal at least hit the over for the first half.

If you want i could lend you my good luck charm . She is an inflatable doll-i call her Touchdown. I take her everywhere i go with me to bring me sports betting luck. Grocery Store, Work, Church . Although she may be defective because i noticed she has a bunch of holes in her.

[Dexter]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12 Recap

7 - 3 = +5.7x

Could have easily been 9-1 this week if the ball bounced just a bit differently in that Tennessee under and AZ over. Solid week though.

NCAAF 2011-2012 Season

64 - 67 = -0.25x

Time to make a big run over these final two weeks of the regular season and bowl season. Hopefully, all of those horrible beats that we suffered earlier in the year will even out and we will end the regular season and bowl season on a big run! GL

great week LTA

[SlickRick1382]

Solid week though. NCAAF 2011-2012 Season 64 - 67 = -0.25x Time to make a big run over these final two weeks of the regular season and bowl season. Hopefully, all of those horrible beats that we suffered earlier in the year will even out and we will end the regular season and bowl season on a big run! GL

Nice week bro.... I'm confident we wind up at least 10+ units when it's all said and done.

Keep them coming with your great research !!!!!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

No writeups right now as I think I'm coming down with the flu and not feeling well. One play for Tuesday and one for Saturday to get the Week 13 card off the ground. Let's start the week off right. Good luck.

[BubbleTeaJelly]

feel better brah

[Hawaii'sUpNcomin]

do you think weather will be a factor in this miami ohio game that could affect the total and keep it under?

[Love The Action]

do you think weather will be a factor in this miami ohio game that could affect the total and keep it under?

If I did, I wouldn't have taken the over

Rain can work both ways. It might hurt the offense because of a slippery ball. However, it can also help the offense because they know where the routes are headed and the defense doesnt, which can cause some big plays from defenders falling down.

My experience has taught me that weather should not be given a ton of deference when it comes to totals (except for wind). We should not cap a game based solely on what the weather is supposed to do because sometimes the weather man is wrong or it just doesn't affect the game. I saw houston put up 70+ in a driving rain against rice with multiple long pass plays.

My only concern related to the weather is that the total will drop because of the alleged weather report and people backing the under because of it. If this game starts to steam to the under, that would concern me. Otherwise, I think we see a high scoring game from both teams on this senior night. Ohio has wrapped up the division which may hurt their focus just enough to let Dysert get 3-4 td's with similar output from Ohio. I expect a 35-31 or 31-24 type game. I have this game set at 55.5, which isnt a ton of value, but miami's dependence on the pass should be enough to slow the clock and provide enough time for some big scoring plays. I expected the books to open in the 56-57 range like they did last week. However, a line of 53 seems to be an overreaction to both the public's perception of the weather and the 45 point total that resulted between miami and wmu last week. I like the over and I'm going to take a shot for 1x. Good luck.

[EPote14]

hey lta first off feel better my man..secondly what'll u think about M-oh covering that +9?

[Love The Action]

hey lta first off feel better my man..secondly what'll u think about M-oh covering that +9?

Thanks. I would probably play miami at +10. I lean to miami at +9. Although, the early money is clearly supporting ohio which would concern me if I were playing miami. GL

[bleedtoledo]

We are talkin t-storms & showers for this game. Scary. Good luck all.

[EPote14]

thanks lta was thinking the same thing which scares me lol maybe just make a play on the total

[GChild]

Unless its extreme conditioned weather usually doesn't matter!

[jonathon1995]

I have an open teaser at -10 off line, I'm thinking of putting this game in at 43 and take over.

[YouHave2outs]

If I did, I wouldn't have taken the over

Rain can work both ways. It might hurt the offense because of a slippery ball. However, it can also help the offense because they know where the routes are headed and the defense doesnt, which can cause some big plays from defenders falling down.

My experience has taught me that weather should not be given a ton of deference when it comes to totals (except for wind). We should not cap a game based solely on what the weather is supposed to do because sometimes the weather man is wrong or it just doesn't affect the game. I saw houston put up 70+ in a driving rain against rice with multiple long pass plays.

My only concern related to the weather is that the total will drop because of the alleged weather report and people backing the under because of it. If this game starts to steam to the under, that would concern me. Otherwise, I think we see a high scoring game from both teams on this senior night. Ohio has wrapped up the division which may hurt their focus just enough to let Dysert get 3-4 td's with similar output from Ohio. I expect a 35-31 or 31-24 type game. I have this game set at 55.5, which isnt a ton of value, but miami's dependence on the pass should be enough to slow the clock and provide enough time for some big scoring plays. I expected the books to open in the 56-57 range like they did last week. However, a line of 53 seems to be an overreaction to both the public's perception of the weather and the 45 point total that resulted between miami and wmu last week. I like the over and I'm going to take a shot for 1x. Good luck.

with you on this, nice writeup as always. and bol