LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Trivial]

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Solid writeup as usual LTA. Best of luck tonight. I am tailing.

[Trivial]

Ran with the play last night at -1 1/2 and also teased it for insurance with Donnie's under lean. DBL winner, nice call guys . Doing great work as always my man .

Nicely done Red.

[Redscot]

Nicely done Red.

Thanks Triv . How's the health doing?

[Trivial]

Thanks Triv . How's the health doing?

Thanks for asking Red. For now, the meds are keeping things under control.

I get to see a specialist next week so hopefully I can figure out a more permanent solution. These meds keep the asthma under control but have really bad side effects.

Hoping for the best next week. I have already gone for all the tests needed to have a discussion next week with the doc. Unfortunately, only the doc knows the results of those tests.

[Love The Action]

Ran with the play last night at -1 1/2 and also teased it for insurance with Donnie's under lean. DBL winner, nice call guys . Doing great work as always my man .

Good luck tonight bud

[GChild]

Let's gettem

[Love The Action]

Thanks for asking Red. For now, the meds are keeping things under control.

I get to see a specialist next week so hopefully I can figure out a more permanent solution. These meds keep the asthma under control but have really bad side effects.

Hoping for the best next week. I have already gone for all the tests needed to have a discussion next week with the doc. Unfortunately, only the doc knows the results of those tests.

Hang in there

[Love The Action]

Let's gettem

[Overbettor]

LTA I need your advice. My local doesnt have the southern miss game because im been killing him lately thanks to you. He has marshall -12 and 51 and vtech -10.5 and 48. Can u help me? I HAVE TO GET A BODOG ACCT.

[No coincidences]

I'm leaning under in that Southern Miss game LTA.

What do you think?

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Play #4

Kent State (-3) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big fan of Kent State's defense and we'll back them again at home with a short spread. At Pinny, the side opened up at Kent -3 and was immediately bet up to 3.5 despite over 70% of the action at the time of the move being on Eastern Michigan. This is a solid line move in favor of Kent State and their defense is the reason is why. Kent State is ranked 14th, 30th and 24th in Def F/+, Def FEI and Def S&P+ respectively, whereas Eastern Michigan is 87th, 98th and 77th. Both offenses are pretty similar, with Kent State having a clear advantage in special teams as evidenced by Kent ranked 20th in STE and Easter Michigan ranked 87th. In a close game like this, field goal kicking could be key and Kent State has a clear advantage with Kent State's Cortez is ranked 35th in the nation hitting over 75% of all kicks and ranked 27th in FGE, whereas Eastern Michigan's Fulkerson hits under 57% of his attempts and ranks at the bottom in FGE. Kent is playing great football right now and has won three straight games, while covering convincingly in all three. I have Kent set at -7 favorites and we're getting 4 points of value here, so I'm rolling with Kent for 1x. I may also have a correlated teaser play in this game with the under. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

LTA I need your advice. My local doesnt have the southern miss game because im been killing him lately thanks to you. He has marshall -12 and 51 and vtech -10.5 and 48. Can u help me? I HAVE TO GET A BODOG ACCT.

Why do you have to bet those games? If you don't like them, just pass and wait until Friday or Saturday.

Personally, I would lean to the under in the Marshall game and a total pass all around in the Vtech game. However, unless I play a game myself, I cannot really recommend it as a "play" and I have no action in those games as of right now. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I'm leaning under in that Southern Miss game LTA.

What do you think?

I lean under as well. I expect that defense to dominate UAB. At issue is how much SoMiss will get off UAB. I would not be surprised to see 38-10 or 45-10 type game. I have this game set at 58, so I do see solid value at 61. However, I'm undecided on the under as a play because SoMiss could explode and UAB could add a late score pushing it over.

Good luck

[Overbettor]

Why do you have to bet those games? If you don't like them, just pass and wait until Friday or Saturday.

Personally, I would lean to the under in the Marshall game and a total pass all around in the Vtech game. However, unless I play a game myself, I cannot really recommend it as a "play" and I have no action in those games as of right now. Good luck.

Thanks. Good luck today

[Trivial]

Hang in there

Thanks LTA and all. Appreciate it. Will do.

[mbcoutinho]

Jumped big on Southern Miss, since you and Dexter (my two favorite guys on NCAAF/NFL) are on it...

[lfep]

LTA, any thoughts on UNC @ VT -9.5?

[Dexter]

..........

[YouHave2outs]

missed out last night cuz i didn't wanna lay that 1.5. tailin tonight at -23. bol everyone

[Krazymojo]

am i watching the right game wtf..........

[NowMillionaire]

Unfortunately, i put a lot of money on THAT pick, waiting for a better 2nd half...

[Krazymojo]

[Ab34]

need a huge weekend lta

[Love The Action]

Unfortunately, i put a lot of money on THAT pick, waiting for a better 2nd half...

Ouch...I hope you weren't tailing me on that one. I never recommended that anyone put "a lot of money" on that one. If you are going to tail me, then you should follow my same money management scheme. If I bet something for 1x, there is a reason I am not betting it for more. I only go above 1x on rare occasions and I only played SoMiss for 1x last night.

However, in general, I would not recommend that you blindly tail me or anyone else. Instead, use my threads, plays and writeups as references for your own handicapping. Remember, I am not a "tout" or a guy looking for followers. I merely post my plays and writeups on SBR in order to help others, spur discussion, learn from others and make myself a better sports investor.

Good luck for Friday

[Love The Action]

need a huge weekend lta

Don't go overboard. Stay consistent with the amount of your wagers. Don't chase and don't make "all in" type plays.

Find a good money management scheme and never deviate. Don't worry about having "huge" weekends. Instead, just try to be consistently in the black and that will add up to a "huge" season.

It's never about one weekend. This is about the long term and being comfortably in the black by the end of the season or even over two, three, four or five seasons.

The problem with many people is they approach sports investing from a "daily" or "weekly" mindset instead of thinking long term. Therefore, they will make stupid "chase" or "all in" type plays in order to get even on the day or make up for a losing week. That is exactly what the books want you to do. Instead, everyone needs to stop thinking about a winning day or losing day and start thinking about a winning season versus a losing season. Even better, start thinking about a winning year in all the markets you play as opposed to just winning this week.

Personally, I approach each sports market that I play (NBA, MLB, NCAAF and NFL) independent of the other. Therefore, even though I might have won over 70x in NBA last year and over 40x in MLB, I don't factor that into my NCAAF market wagers or my NFL market wagers. I try to be in the black in each market. However, I also know the total amount of money that I am up on the year and I would never jeopardize that hard earned profit from other markets in order to make an all in play in the NCAAF or NFL markets in order to get in the black. That is very stupid and what the books want.

Remember, NCAAF and NFL are the hardest markets to beat, with the sharpest lines and biggest handles. Therefore, you should play those most conservatively. My units in football are just a bit more than half of what my units are for NBA and MLB. The reason is that I know where my strengths are and I approach sports investing as a long term initiative. If I have a small losing season in NCAAF or NFL, its no big deal because I already made some big profits in NBA and MLB. My goal, however, is to be in the black in each market at season's end. I don't risk profit from other markets just to make an "all in" play in hopes of getting into the black in another market. It's all about grinding out profit over the length of the season and I am quite confident I will end up in the black in both NCAAF and NFL by season's end by grinding out that profit. Remember, it's not about a winning day or a winning week, it's about winning seasons and winning years overall.

Good luck

[poloman]

You have the right approach to the game I think. Keep doing it that way, it's the way to go buddy.
Have a nice day.

[pacocn]

Lta, sound advice, from a sound guy

[Overbettor]

Any play on oklahoma st game tonight LTA?

[Redscot]

That post of yours LTA should be required reading for every SBR member. For most of us it remains a struggle to not make impulsive/chase plays and stay disciplined with our unit size and money management. Naturally it is those type of instincts that draw most of us to betting in the first place so we are swimming against the impulse current for the most part. Aside from being a very good capper, I think this is the area you have helped me the most...it's has been a very profitable lesson...although I remain a work in progress still.

[Love The Action]

That post of yours LTA should be required reading for every SBR member. For most of us it remains a struggle to not make impulsive/chase plays and stay disciplined with our unit size and money management. Naturally it is those type of instincts that draw most of us to betting in the first place so we are swimming against the impulse current for the most part. Aside from being a very good capper, I think this is the area you have helped me the most...it's has been a very profitable lesson...although I remain a work in progress still.

What do you like tonight?

I can get OKST -26 right now as the "obvious" pick. I have them set at -28 even though, so there is a little value. It's so tough to cover those late season road fave spreads though....

The MAC game interests me...

[Love The Action]

Any play on oklahoma st game tonight LTA?

I post all my plays when I lock them in (except in rare circumstances if my phone isn't working or something). I don't currently have any plays for tonight, but will post them if and when I do.

What about you? Any plays or leans you would like to share...
Good luck tonight

[killersweet]

Don't go overboard. Stay consistent with the amount of your wagers. Don't chase and don't make "all in" type plays.

Find a good money management scheme and never deviate. Don't worry about having "huge" weekends. Instead, just try to be consistently in the black and that will add up to a "huge" season.

It's never about one weekend. This is about the long term and being comfortably in the black by the end of the season or even over two, three, four or five seasons.

The problem with many people is they approach sports investing from a "daily" or "weekly" mindset instead of thinking long term. Therefore, they will make stupid "chase" or "all in" type plays in order to get even on the day or make up for a losing week. That is exactly what the books want you to do. Instead, everyone needs to stop thinking about a winning day or losing day and start thinking about a winning season versus a losing season. Even better, start thinking about a winning year in all the markets you play as opposed to just winning this week.

Personally, I approach each sports market that I play (NBA, MLB, NCAAF and NFL) independent of the other. Therefore, even though I might have won over 70x in NBA last year and over 40x in MLB, I don't factor that into my NCAAF market wagers or my NFL market wagers. I try to be in the black in each market. However, I also know the total amount of money that I am up on the year and I would never jeopardize that hard earned profit from other markets in order to make an all in play in the NCAAF or NFL markets in order to get in the black. That is very stupid and what the books want.

Remember, NCAAF and NFL are the hardest markets to beat, with the sharpest lines and biggest handles. Therefore, you should play those most conservatively. My units in football are just a bit more than half of what my units are for NBA and MLB. The reason is that I know where my strengths are and I approach sports investing as a long term initiative. If I have a small losing season in NCAAF or NFL, its no big deal because I already made some big profits in NBA and MLB. My goal, however, is to be in the black in each market at season's end. I don't risk profit from other markets just to make an "all in" play in hopes of getting into the black in another market. It's all about grinding out profit over the length of the season and I am quite confident I will end up in the black in both NCAAF and NFL by season's end by grinding out that profit. Remember, it's not about a winning day or a winning week, it's about winning seasons and winning years overall.

Good luck

[SlickRick1382]

What do you like tonight? I can get OKST -26 right now as the "obvious" pick. I have them set at -28 even though, so there is a little value. It's so tough to cover those late season road fave spreads though.... The MAC game interests me...

Is anyone else concerned that if OK State has a decent enough lead they'd pull their starters in order to avoid any injuries for their OK showdown in two weeks? They don't needs style points anymore to stay in the #2 on the polls so they most important thing is to go into the OK game healthy.

I just worry that they won't go overboard with their scoring this game even if their not looking ahead.

[Overbettor]

I post all my plays when I lock them in (except in rare circumstances if my phone isn't working or something). I don't currently have any plays for tonight, but will post them if and when I do.

What about you? Any plays or leans you would like to share...
Good luck tonight

It never seems to be a bad idea to go over in regards to any of oklahoma states games and right now that seems to be the safest play on the board. I guess my only concern would be wheeden and co being pulled after surmounting a comfortable lead. Good luck everyone

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Play #4

Kent State (-3) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big fan of Kent State's defense and we'll back them again at home with a short spread. At Pinny, the side opened up at Kent -3 and was immediately bet up to 3.5 despite over 70% of the action at the time of the move being on Eastern Michigan. This is a solid line move in favor of Kent State and their defense is the reason is why. Kent State is ranked 14th, 30th and 24th in Def F/+, Def FEI and Def S&P+ respectively, whereas Eastern Michigan is 87th, 98th and 77th. Both offenses are pretty similar, with Kent State having a clear advantage in special teams as evidenced by Kent ranked 20th in STE and Easter Michigan ranked 87th. In a close game like this, field goal kicking could be key and Kent State has a clear advantage with Kent State's Cortez is ranked 35th in the nation hitting over 75% of all kicks and ranked 27th in FGE, whereas Eastern Michigan's Fulkerson hits under 57% of his attempts and ranks at the bottom in FGE. Kent is playing great football right now and has won three straight games, while covering convincingly in all three. I have Kent set at -7 favorites and we're getting 4 points of value here, so I'm rolling with Kent for 1x. I may also have a correlated teaser play in this game with the under. Good luck.

Play #5

Toledo/Central Michigan under (75) 1x (Locked)

The under started to steam a little bit, so I jumped on the 75 now rather than wait till later for 76 or better because I will not have time to watch the lines later today when the game starts (which is usually the best time to bet the under on a MAC game). After the steam, the number currently sits at 74 at most outlets and I would personally play the under at 73 or better. I have this game set at 69 and was surprised to see it open at 72 in most spots. That actually made me think I may be "off" in the way I set this game. However, rather than a lean to the over, I think the books are setting this one so high because of public perception about MAC overs and the recent high scoring games out of Toledo. Toledo has scored over 60 points in back to back games against NIU and WMU. That is very hard to do and it's not going to be easy for Toledo to match that sort of offensive output three games in a row. However, Central Michigan does not have the firepower of those other two offenses and Toledo actually has a very stout defense according to the advanced stats. Even though they have given up a lot of points recently, Toledo's overall defensive stats are very good with an overall defensive F/+ rating ranked 44th nationally and a 50th rated defense according to S+P+ efficiency ratings. Even though Central Michigan has a horrible defense, and have been an over machine going 8-3 in favor of the over on the season, they have not had a game set in the 70's all year and the only games they played over 71 points was against Norther Illinois when the game ended with a total of 89. This is a really high total for these two teams and I don't think it gets there. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.