LTA's NCAAF Plays

[SlickRick1382]

Play #4

Toledo/Central Michigan under (75) 1x (Locked)

The under started to steam a little bit, so I jumped on the 75 now rather than wait till later for 76 or better because I will not have time to watch the lines later today when the game starts (which is usually the best time to bet the under on a MAC game). After the steam, the number currently sits at 74 at most outlets and I would personally play the under at 73 or better. I have this game set at 69 and was surprised to see it open at 72 in most spots. That actually made me think I may be "off" in the way I set this game. However, rather than a lean to the over, I think the books are setting this one so high because of public perception about MAC overs and the recent high scoring games out of Toledo. Toledo has scored over 60 points in back to back games against NIU and WMU. That is very hard to do and it's not going to be easy for Toledo to match that sort of offensive output three games in a row. However, Central Michigan does not have the firepower of those other two offenses and Toledo actually has a very stout defense according to the advanced stats. Even though they have given up a lot of points recently, Toledo's overall defensive stats are very good with an overall defensive F/+ rating ranked 44th nationally and a 50th rated defense according to S+P+ efficiency ratings. Even though Central Michigan has a horrible defense, and have been an over machine going 8-3 in favor of the over on the season, they have not had a game set in the 70's all year and the only games they played over 71 points was against Norther Illinois when the game ended with a total of 89. This is a really high total for these two teams and I don't think it gets there. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

You just made my day !!!!!

When I was looking at this game I was thinking I would take Toledo at 14 (I would buy the hook) and the under. Glad you confirmed at least one part for me !!!!

[NowMillionaire]

Ouch...I hope you weren't tailing me on that one. I never recommended that anyone put "a lot of money" on that one. If you are going to tail me, then you should follow my same money management scheme. If I bet something for 1x, there is a reason I am not betting it for more. I only go above 1x on rare occasions and I only played SoMiss for 1x last night.

However, in general, I would not recommend that you blindly tail me or anyone else. Instead, use my threads, plays and writeups as references for your own handicapping. Remember, I am not a "tout" or a guy looking for followers. I merely post my plays and writeups on SBR in order to help others, spur discussion, learn from others and make myself a better sports investor.

Good luck for Friday

I will never say that it's your fault. If i'm following your picks, it's because I want, do'esn't matter the amount of money I bet. And of course I take the entire responsibility if I lose.

Keep up the good work, and good luck for this week end !

[Love The Action]

You just made my day !!!!!

When I was looking at this game I was thinking I would take Toledo at 14 (I would buy the hook) and the under. Glad you confirmed at least one part for me !!!!

Good luck

[Love The Action]

I will never say that it's your fault. If i'm following your picks, it's because I want, do'esn't matter the amount of money I bet. And of course I take the entire responsibility if I lose.

Keep up the good work, and good luck for this week end !

[Love The Action]

So is Tyler Bray playing for Tennessee on Saturday? I've heard yes and no....

[Overbettor]

So is Tyler Bray playing for Tennessee on Saturday? I've heard yes and no....

I cant find anything definitive.....just that hes been practicing and is expected to start but will be a game time decision.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Play #4

Kent State (-3) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big fan of Kent State's defense and we'll back them again at home with a short spread. At Pinny, the side opened up at Kent -3 and was immediately bet up to 3.5 despite over 70% of the action at the time of the move being on Eastern Michigan. This is a solid line move in favor of Kent State and their defense is the reason is why. Kent State is ranked 14th, 30th and 24th in Def F/+, Def FEI and Def S&P+ respectively, whereas Eastern Michigan is 87th, 98th and 77th. Both offenses are pretty similar, with Kent State having a clear advantage in special teams as evidenced by Kent ranked 20th in STE and Easter Michigan ranked 87th. In a close game like this, field goal kicking could be key and Kent State has a clear advantage with Kent State's Cortez is ranked 35th in the nation hitting over 75% of all kicks and ranked 27th in FGE, whereas Eastern Michigan's Fulkerson hits under 57% of his attempts and ranks at the bottom in FGE. Kent is playing great football right now and has won three straight games, while covering convincingly in all three. I have Kent set at -7 favorites and we're getting 4 points of value here, so I'm rolling with Kent for 1x. I may also have a correlated teaser play in this game with the under. Good luck.

Play #5

Toledo/Central Michigan under (75) 1x (Locked)

The under started to steam a little bit, so I jumped on the 75 now rather than wait till later for 76 or better because I will not have time to watch the lines later today when the game starts (which is usually the best time to bet the under on a MAC game). After the steam, the number currently sits at 74 at most outlets and I would personally play the under at 73 or better. I have this game set at 69 and was surprised to see it open at 72 in most spots. That actually made me think I may be "off" in the way I set this game. However, rather than a lean to the over, I think the books are setting this one so high because of public perception about MAC overs and the recent high scoring games out of Toledo. Toledo has scored over 60 points in back to back games against NIU and WMU. That is very hard to do and it's not going to be easy for Toledo to match that sort of offensive output three games in a row. However, Central Michigan does not have the firepower of those other two offenses and Toledo actually has a very stout defense according to the advanced stats. Even though they have given up a lot of points recently, Toledo's overall defensive stats are very good with an overall defensive F/+ rating ranked 44th nationally and a 50th rated defense according to S+P+ efficiency ratings. Even though Central Michigan has a horrible defense, and have been an over machine going 8-3 in favor of the over on the season, they have not had a game set in the 70's all year and the only games they played over 71 points was against Norther Illinois when the game ended with a total of 89. This is a really high total for these two teams and I don't think it gets there. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Arizona/Arizona State over (68.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup right now, but you have two top 50 offenses in F/+, FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers. Even though AZST has a decent defense, I expect both offenses to stick with a fast paced pass orientated attack with Foles and Osweiller. I have this game at 71 and would play it all the way up to 70 as I expect this one to hit the high 70's or low 80's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Play #4

Kent State (-3) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big fan of Kent State's defense and we'll back them again at home with a short spread. At Pinny, the side opened up at Kent -3 and was immediately bet up to 3.5 despite over 70% of the action at the time of the move being on Eastern Michigan. This is a solid line move in favor of Kent State and their defense is the reason is why. Kent State is ranked 14th, 30th and 24th in Def F/+, Def FEI and Def S&P+ respectively, whereas Eastern Michigan is 87th, 98th and 77th. Both offenses are pretty similar, with Kent State having a clear advantage in special teams as evidenced by Kent ranked 20th in STE and Easter Michigan ranked 87th. In a close game like this, field goal kicking could be key and Kent State has a clear advantage with Kent State's Cortez is ranked 35th in the nation hitting over 75% of all kicks and ranked 27th in FGE, whereas Eastern Michigan's Fulkerson hits under 57% of his attempts and ranks at the bottom in FGE. Kent is playing great football right now and has won three straight games, while covering convincingly in all three. I have Kent set at -7 favorites and we're getting 4 points of value here, so I'm rolling with Kent for 1x. I may also have a correlated teaser play in this game with the under. Good luck.

Play #5

Toledo/Central Michigan under (75) 1x (Locked)

The under started to steam a little bit, so I jumped on the 75 now rather than wait till later for 76 or better because I will not have time to watch the lines later today when the game starts (which is usually the best time to bet the under on a MAC game). After the steam, the number currently sits at 74 at most outlets and I would personally play the under at 73 or better. I have this game set at 69 and was surprised to see it open at 72 in most spots. That actually made me think I may be "off" in the way I set this game. However, rather than a lean to the over, I think the books are setting this one so high because of public perception about MAC overs and the recent high scoring games out of Toledo. Toledo has scored over 60 points in back to back games against NIU and WMU. That is very hard to do and it's not going to be easy for Toledo to match that sort of offensive output three games in a row. However, Central Michigan does not have the firepower of those other two offenses and Toledo actually has a very stout defense according to the advanced stats. Even though they have given up a lot of points recently, Toledo's overall defensive stats are very good with an overall defensive F/+ rating ranked 44th nationally and a 50th rated defense according to S+P+ efficiency ratings. Even though Central Michigan has a horrible defense, and have been an over machine going 8-3 in favor of the over on the season, they have not had a game set in the 70's all year and the only games they played over 71 points was against Norther Illinois when the game ended with a total of 89. This is a really high total for these two teams and I don't think it gets there. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Arizona/Arizona State over (68.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup right now, but you have two top 50 offenses in F/+, FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers. Even though AZST has a decent defense, I expect both offenses to stick with a fast paced pass orientated attack with Foles and Osweiller. I have this game at 71 and would play it all the way up to 70 as I expect this one to hit the high 70's or low 80's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Georgia Tech/Duke over (56.5) 1x (Locked)

I don't have much time for a writeup and I'm not a big fan of playing games with the hook, but I take on that risk in both this play and the AZ over. I have this game set at 61, so I have to roll with the over here. I do respect Duke's defense at home as evidence by a great performance against Vtech. However, in this game, I think they have a tough time stopping the triple option and I expect Gtech's top ten offense to be quite effective. On the other hand, with Duke playing at home, I expect Renfree and that spread offense to get us 3 or 4 touchdowns on Saturday. I think this game is reminiscent of GT's early season games where we saw GT get out to some early scores and let the other team stay in the game with some easy points. I love the value here and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

[doin]

So is Tyler Bray playing for Tennessee on Saturday? I've heard yes and no....

"After three days on the practice field, though, all signs point toward Bray being on the field Saturday. He may not be 100 percent, but the Vols will take what they can get."

source:

http://www.nooga.com/23747_volquest-com-notebook-looks-like-thumbs-up-for-bray-vs-vandy/

[Aubie]

Play #6

Arizona/Arizona State over (68.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup right now, but you have two top 50 offenses in F/+, FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers. Even though AZST has a decent defense, I expect both offenses to stick with a fast paced pass orientated attack with Foles and Osweiller. I have this game at 71 and would play it all the way up to 70 as I expect this one to hit the high 70's or low 80's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Glad to see your on this play. Probably my favorite of them all for many reasons.

BOL to you this weekend. Keep up the good work.

[lfep]

Wow, lots of line movement.

OK State/Iowa is at 70 (everyone's hitting the over, it started at 66.5 if I'm not mistaken)

Any thoughts on either LTA at these totals?

[Love The Action]

Why are people betting the Hawaii over with Moniz out at QB? Don't they know he broke his leg, or do they know something about the backup that I don't?

[pacocn]

weather is a factor in that Toledo/CMU game and it
should bode well for your under.

[fecgp40]

weather is a factor in that Toledo/CMU game and it should bode well for your under.

I like the under as well as CMU + 14.5. GL. The last forecast I saw called for somewhat windy conditions, but the weather didn't look atrocious.

[NowMillionaire]

Some people are on Toledo's over, I follow you on the under, GL!

[fecgp40]

Why are people betting the Hawaii over with Moniz out at QB? Don't they know he broke his leg, or do they know something about the backup that I don't?

I don't understand it either. I wasn't a fan of Hawaii even with Moniz. Fresno money line seems like a good bet, but it's always tough for teams to win on the road in Hawaii. What do we know about the Hawaii backup QB? Anyone?

[alamo]

I managed to get in late and jump on the Live line Under 84.5 at the end of One in the Toledo game for 4x. Lets hope we get some stops as right now its looking like another typical MAC game

[raiderhater9572]

LTA - Fresno fired their defensive coordinator after last weeks game.. in comes an up and coming coach says head coach Pat Hill which might fire up the defense but I highly doubt it. last week Fresno lost to New Mexico State and that is unforgivable for the Bulldog fanbase.. Fresno has a terrible defense and secondary but does have a good offense (derek carr is young and developing qb).. but the program is in pieces right now and some of the public is calling for coach Pat Hill to be fired.. Hill wants to stay and believes he has the pieces to develop a promising future with their offense clicking and should get better.. but I would heavily bet Hawaii in this game if I just knew the Hawaii QB situation.. Hawaii is tough on the island and the moral is low right now at Fresno.. and any decent offense has tore apart the Bulldogs this year.. any thoughts?

[Trivial]

I managed to get in late and jump on the Live line Under 84.5 at the end of One in the Toledo game for 4x. Lets hope we get some stops as right now its looking like another typical MAC game

GL Alamo. Nice catch.

[raiderhater9572]

Also does anybody like Navy this week at San Jose State.. after a slow start they have regrouped and have won two in a row and a tough one last week.. San Jose St has taken two hard losses in a row.. I think Navy is pretty motivated right now and with a win here they will be bowl eligible if they beat army! I think Navy won't look past this game and is a good spot to play them at -5..

[Love The Action]

Cash that Toledo under

[lfep]

Cash that Toledo under

[GChild]

Boom!!!!
Nice job LTA...thank you

[NowMillionaire]

good job LTA ! Keep up the good work !

[alamo]

Great Call LTA !

[Ab34]

Thanks LTA another winner tonight thank you for your work win or loss

[Trivial]

Well done LTA. Looking forward to today. Best of luck to all. Cheers.

[Trivial]

I will be having another daddy daughter day starting 10am Eastern. So unfortunately will only be able to tail the picks mase by then. Take care.

[thortada]

i know it was couple days ago but wanted to thank you and congratulate you on that 3x play

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Play #4

Kent State (-3) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big fan of Kent State's defense and we'll back them again at home with a short spread. At Pinny, the side opened up at Kent -3 and was immediately bet up to 3.5 despite over 70% of the action at the time of the move being on Eastern Michigan. This is a solid line move in favor of Kent State and their defense is the reason is why. Kent State is ranked 14th, 30th and 24th in Def F/+, Def FEI and Def S&P+ respectively, whereas Eastern Michigan is 87th, 98th and 77th. Both offenses are pretty similar, with Kent State having a clear advantage in special teams as evidenced by Kent ranked 20th in STE and Easter Michigan ranked 87th. In a close game like this, field goal kicking could be key and Kent State has a clear advantage with Kent State's Cortez is ranked 35th in the nation hitting over 75% of all kicks and ranked 27th in FGE, whereas Eastern Michigan's Fulkerson hits under 57% of his attempts and ranks at the bottom in FGE. Kent is playing great football right now and has won three straight games, while covering convincingly in all three. I have Kent set at -7 favorites and we're getting 4 points of value here, so I'm rolling with Kent for 1x. I may also have a correlated teaser play in this game with the under. Good luck.

Play #5

Toledo/Central Michigan under (75) 1x (Locked) WINNER

The under started to steam a little bit, so I jumped on the 75 now rather than wait till later for 76 or better because I will not have time to watch the lines later today when the game starts (which is usually the best time to bet the under on a MAC game). After the steam, the number currently sits at 74 at most outlets and I would personally play the under at 73 or better. I have this game set at 69 and was surprised to see it open at 72 in most spots. That actually made me think I may be "off" in the way I set this game. However, rather than a lean to the over, I think the books are setting this one so high because of public perception about MAC overs and the recent high scoring games out of Toledo. Toledo has scored over 60 points in back to back games against NIU and WMU. That is very hard to do and it's not going to be easy for Toledo to match that sort of offensive output three games in a row. However, Central Michigan does not have the firepower of those other two offenses and Toledo actually has a very stout defense according to the advanced stats. Even though they have given up a lot of points recently, Toledo's overall defensive stats are very good with an overall defensive F/+ rating ranked 44th nationally and a 50th rated defense according to S+P+ efficiency ratings. Even though Central Michigan has a horrible defense, and have been an over machine going 8-3 in favor of the over on the season, they have not had a game set in the 70's all year and the only games they played over 71 points was against Norther Illinois when the game ended with a total of 89. This is a really high total for these two teams and I don't think it gets there. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Arizona/Arizona State over (68.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup right now, but you have two top 50 offenses in F/+, FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers. Even though AZST has a decent defense, I expect both offenses to stick with a fast paced pass orientated attack with Foles and Osweiller. I have this game at 71 and would play it all the way up to 70 as I expect this one to hit the high 70's or low 80's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Georgia Tech/Duke over (56.5) 1x (Locked)

I don't have much time for a writeup and I'm not a big fan of playing games with the hook, but I take on that risk in both this play and the AZ over. I have this game set at 61, so I have to roll with the over here. I do respect Duke's defense at home as evidence by a great performance against Vtech. However, in this game, I think they have a tough time stopping the triple option and I expect Gtech's top ten offense to be quite effective. On the other hand, with Duke playing at home, I expect Renfree and that spread offense to get us 3 or 4 touchdowns on Saturday. I think this game is reminiscent of GT's early season games where we saw GT get out to some early scores and let the other team stay in the game with some easy points. I love the value here and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #8

USC/Oregon over (68) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups because I'm leaving for the day pretty soon. I should have quite a few plays coming up. I locked this one in last night. Looks like it's up to 68.5 now and I would take it all the way up to 69. Even though both defenses are athletic and stingy, the offenses will be marquee tonight at Oregon. I expect a quick tempo from Oregon, USC to throw the ball vertically to open up some running lanes and this game to be a competitive game that flies over the posted total into the 70's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[brucethebear]

Cheers for the picks.
Already had Oregon at 67. Have added the kent play.

Bol.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 12

Play #1

Ball State/NIU over (71) 3x (Locked) WINNER
I love this play from top to bottom and it's one of my bigger plays of the NCAAF season. I only have this one set at 73.5, but I think this one is primed for a shootout as evidenced by the opening number. Why is this game, against lowly Ball State at home, NIU's first game set in the 70's? Well, in addition to the public perception that is in love with NIU overs and are going to bet them regardless, I believe the answer is because this one will end up in the 80's or higher and the books know it. The reason I am so confident in this play has been the recent offensive play from both teams. Ball State has a sophmore quarterback in Wenning who has really come on of late and he sports the 43rd best qb rating in November. This tells me he has hit his stride and some the speed of the game has "clicked" for him. On the other side, we all know what Harnish and NIU are capable of on offense -- these guys are averaging over 40 points per game. Bottom line is that I expect NIU to explode for a minimum of 42 in this game, which is their first game at home after three straight road games. The last time the Huskies played in front of their home crowd, they laid the wood to Western Michigan 51-22 and I think we see another big scoring home performance on Tuesday. I'm jumping on this one now before it gets any higher. I expect a closing number hovering between 72.5 and 73. I am very confident in this play as Harnish will be pumped to put on a huge scoring display for his home crowd in his second to last game at home for his career. NIU hit its stride last year around this same part of the season last year and because the majority of players back, I would not be surprised to see one of those 60 point outbursts. I also expect Ball State to put 35 on the board tomorrow in what should be a classic MAC Tuesday night shootout. Except for Temple, Oklahoma and South Florida, all three of which have much better defenses than NIU, Ball State has hit in the high 20's to low 30's in all of their games. There is no doubt that this will be a "public" play, but that's the tradeoff for playing any over which are generally public plays from the beginning. Regardless, the public play is sometimes the right play and I think one of those times is Tuesday in Dekalb, IL. I am rolling with the over for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Western Michigan (+2)(-120) 1x (Locked) WINNER

My apologies for posting this late but I was unable to post this earlier for a number of reasons. I believe WMU is now -1 and I would still play them at that number or up to -120 on the ML. Other than some defensive categories, WMU dominates Miami in every advanced statistical categories including special teams. In adiition, I think the qualitative factors also favor the broncos. I actually wanted to make this a 2x play, but I was unable to get +2 at -110 odds. Nevertheless, I like WMU to win this game and I'm rolling with the broncos for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Southern Mississippi (-23) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I'm not really a fan of playing huge public faves on the road, but I think it's definitely warranted in this case as both the quantitative factors and qualitative factors point to SoMiss in this one. SoMiss is top 25 overall in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced stats whereas UAB is right at the bottom ten. Whether offense, defense or special teams, SoMiss has a sizable and significant advantage and they also lead in turnover ratio. In addition, I would also give the clear edge at QB to SoMiss where senior Austin Davis outclasses sophmore Jonathan Perry as evidenced by a QB rating top 45 in the nation compared to Perry's 93 ranking. Even though UAB has a solid field goal kicker, both teams have reliable kicking games. Nevertheless, the overall special teams rankings go to SoMiss where they are ranked top 45 in STE to UAB's rank in at 75. However, in addition to the quantitative stats which clearly point to SoMiss, I think there are quite a few motivational factors in support of SoMiss including clinching the Conf. USA East Division crown with a win and and a solid double revenge spot after losing two years in a roll to UAB. I would have liked to get -21, but it never really existed except at a few select books and was immediately bet up to 22.5 or 23 within an hour of open indicating early money on SoMiss. I have this game set at -27.5 in this game, so I love the value we are getting here. I am rolling with the SoMiss for 1x now and I might add to this play or tease SoMiss with another play I have in mind. Good luck.

Play #4

Kent State (-3) 1x (Locked)

I'm a big fan of Kent State's defense and we'll back them again at home with a short spread. At Pinny, the side opened up at Kent -3 and was immediately bet up to 3.5 despite over 70% of the action at the time of the move being on Eastern Michigan. This is a solid line move in favor of Kent State and their defense is the reason is why. Kent State is ranked 14th, 30th and 24th in Def F/+, Def FEI and Def S&P+ respectively, whereas Eastern Michigan is 87th, 98th and 77th. Both offenses are pretty similar, with Kent State having a clear advantage in special teams as evidenced by Kent ranked 20th in STE and Easter Michigan ranked 87th. In a close game like this, field goal kicking could be key and Kent State has a clear advantage with Kent State's Cortez is ranked 35th in the nation hitting over 75% of all kicks and ranked 27th in FGE, whereas Eastern Michigan's Fulkerson hits under 57% of his attempts and ranks at the bottom in FGE. Kent is playing great football right now and has won three straight games, while covering convincingly in all three. I have Kent set at -7 favorites and we're getting 4 points of value here, so I'm rolling with Kent for 1x. I may also have a correlated teaser play in this game with the under. Good luck.

Play #5

Toledo/Central Michigan under (75) 1x (Locked) WINNER

The under started to steam a little bit, so I jumped on the 75 now rather than wait till later for 76 or better because I will not have time to watch the lines later today when the game starts (which is usually the best time to bet the under on a MAC game). After the steam, the number currently sits at 74 at most outlets and I would personally play the under at 73 or better. I have this game set at 69 and was surprised to see it open at 72 in most spots. That actually made me think I may be "off" in the way I set this game. However, rather than a lean to the over, I think the books are setting this one so high because of public perception about MAC overs and the recent high scoring games out of Toledo. Toledo has scored over 60 points in back to back games against NIU and WMU. That is very hard to do and it's not going to be easy for Toledo to match that sort of offensive output three games in a row. However, Central Michigan does not have the firepower of those other two offenses and Toledo actually has a very stout defense according to the advanced stats. Even though they have given up a lot of points recently, Toledo's overall defensive stats are very good with an overall defensive F/+ rating ranked 44th nationally and a 50th rated defense according to S+P+ efficiency ratings. Even though Central Michigan has a horrible defense, and have been an over machine going 8-3 in favor of the over on the season, they have not had a game set in the 70's all year and the only games they played over 71 points was against Norther Illinois when the game ended with a total of 89. This is a really high total for these two teams and I don't think it gets there. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Arizona/Arizona State over (68.5) 1x (Locked)

No time for an in-depth writeup right now, but you have two top 50 offenses in F/+, FEI and S&P+ efficiency numbers. Even though AZST has a decent defense, I expect both offenses to stick with a fast paced pass orientated attack with Foles and Osweiller. I have this game at 71 and would play it all the way up to 70 as I expect this one to hit the high 70's or low 80's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Georgia Tech/Duke over (56.5) 1x (Locked)

I don't have much time for a writeup and I'm not a big fan of playing games with the hook, but I take on that risk in both this play and the AZ over. I have this game set at 61, so I have to roll with the over here. I do respect Duke's defense at home as evidence by a great performance against Vtech. However, in this game, I think they have a tough time stopping the triple option and I expect Gtech's top ten offense to be quite effective. On the other hand, with Duke playing at home, I expect Renfree and that spread offense to get us 3 or 4 touchdowns on Saturday. I think this game is reminiscent of GT's early season games where we saw GT get out to some early scores and let the other team stay in the game with some easy points. I love the value here and I'm rolling with the over for 1x.

Play #8

USC/Oregon over (68) 1x (Locked)

No time for writeups because I'm leaving for the day pretty soon. I should have quite a few plays coming up. I locked this one in last night. Looks like it's up to 68.5 now and I would take it all the way up to 69. Even though both defenses are athletic and stingy, the offenses will be marquee tonight at Oregon. I expect a quick tempo from Oregon, USC to throw the ball vertically to open up some running lanes and this game to be a competitive game that flies over the posted total into the 70's. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Cincinatti/Rutgers under (47) 1x (Locked)

This one may end up a 2x play. I like Rutgers defense to frustrate Cincinnati QB Legraux in his first real start for Collaros who is out with an injury. Rutgers is a top 10 ranked defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency ratings, while Cincinnati is top 35. Rutgers likes to dominate the time of possession battle and that strategy bodes well today in some windy weather. I have this one at 47 with Collaros playing, therefore, you take him out of this game and I love the value here as he should have at least a 2 point affect if not 3 point affect on this game as a veteran QB. I am rolling with the under for 1x and might add to that stake. Good luck.

[GChild]

Boom let's get them big guy!!

[abejr]

Nice start to the week keep it going. BOL

[DIRTYDIRTY]

looking good lta