LTA's NCAAF Plays

[BiffTFinancial]

love Bama today. Roll Tide. BOL, LTA.

[Love The Action]

BTW, In the last 20 years the biggest spread in Iron bowl was 14.5... This is a huge game in the south, and it is also Auburn's bowl game as it is bigger than any bowl they will be invited to and Bama has bigger fish to fry. The books are inflating this line because they know public money will come in on Bama, for proof of that notice Hilton had this at 17 a week ago and the Gold Nugget opened it at 12.5 two weeks ago... Maybe I am wrong, but it seems like if your not taking points in this one you shouldnt be on it period. I tail you a lot. I respect your opinion more than my own on college ball. But, I am an SEC guy, Gator Grad, and I follow these southern teams alot.... And, I just figured the one time I could give you a pick I would, even though it is against yours.

Anything is possible and I am sure you know your SEC football, however, I find your argument flawed in that you using all qualitative factors as the base of your argument. The spread in previous Iron Bowl's does not matter in relation to today's game. When you say this is a "huge" game, you are correct. However, it's a huge game, but one that I could argue is MORE important to Bama. The Tide are the team on (1) revenge and (2) fighting for a National Championship. Auburn wants to win, but does not have the same motivational factors as Alabama.

However, the main reason your argument is flawed is that you ignore all quantitative factors and the players on the field. Alabama is clearly the superior team ranked top 3 on both offense and defense in the advanced stats where Auburn is in the 60's. I have this one set at 24 points based primarily on the stats and you can't deny Bama's superiority. Plus, with Auburn going with Moseley in what is essentially only his second or third start against one of the best and most athletic defenses in the modern era, I would never back Auburn in this spot. I think Alabama rolls today and we can agree to disagree on this one. Good luck on your plays bud.

[GChild]

Anything is possible and I am sure you know your SEC football, however, I find your argument flawed in that you using all qualitative factors as the base of your argument. The spread in previous Iron Bowl's does not matter in relation to today's game. When you say this is a "huge" game, you are correct. However, it's a huge game, but one that I could argue is MORE important to Bama. The Tide are the team on (1) revenge and (2) fighting for a National Championship. Auburn wants to win, but does not have the same motivational factors as Alabama.

However, the main reason your argument is flawed is that you ignore all quantitative factors and the players on the field. Alabama is clearly the superior team ranked top 3 on both offense and defense in the advanced stats where Auburn is in the 60's. I have this one set at 24 points based primarily on the stats and you can't deny Bama's superiority. Plus, with Auburn going with Moseley in what is essentially only his second or third start against one of the best and most athletic defenses in the modern era, I would never back Auburn in this spot. I think Alabama rolls today and we can agree to disagree on this one. Good luck on your plays bud.

Boooooom

[Love The Action]

LTA, would like to hear your thoughts on the GA Tech pick.

This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Georgia-Georgia Tech -OVER 54.5 points? Georgia can they score over 30.5 points today?

Not sure about the total. I would probably lean under as my model has 53.5, but I think this total is pretty accurate anywhere in that range. No play on the total for me. I will stick with GT +6.5. Good luck

[Love The Action]

love Bama today. Roll Tide. BOL, LTA.

[Love The Action]

Man, I've been waiting for the Texas Tech/Baylor total to fall and instead it keeps going up and I get burned. I want to play the over, but I missed the 79's and since it has gone up to 80 and 81. I don't think I can play it above 79 but we'll see. I really like that over. Those defenses are in trouble...

[Love The Action]

BTW, I am very excited about the return of the NBA. Along with MLB, that is my primary money maker. Now I can get back to real work with my NBA model. Time to make that money.

[SUPREME]

Holy sh*t! Love the line movement on GTech. Now at +41/2

[GChild]

I got them at 7 when LTA released it

[OperatorX]

Holy shit there is nba again!? I'm slow like a turtle today.

[suicidekings]

BTW, I am very excited about the return of the NBA. Along with MLB, that is my primary money maker. Now I can get back to real work with my NBA model. Time to make that money.

Too bad the games don't start until Christmas... Those Xmas games afforded such a huge betting opportunity when they were a month into the season, however i suspect the angles I normally used to approach them will be worthless this year because the players will have no games under their belts already... But damn it, I'm stoked for this. I missed Hoops so much.

[SUPREME]

66 game season starting Christmas. The Bookie Gods owe us this from this incredibly sh*tty College and NFL season.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #2

Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. I am rolling with GT and the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3

Bowling Green (+3) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #4

Louisville/South Florida under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #5

Kent State/Temple under (41) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #6

Houston/Tulsa under (78.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #7

Alabama (-21) 1x (Locked)

I don't really think the Auburn home field advantage is enough to keep this one within 21. The Tide is the clearly superior team in this particular Iron Bowl with a defense that might just rank up there with some of the best. The Bama defense has 8-10 players that will play on Sundays and I expect them to run roughshot over a still raw Moseley. Alabama clearly dominates Auburn on both sides of offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ where the Tide are ranked top 3 (1st in many categories) and Auburn is in the 60's. In addition, Bama is playing with revenge and with the need to win with "style" points to ensure itself a rematch with LSU in the National Championship. I think we see the Tide roll -- or is the that Roll tide -- and I am rolling with Alabama for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)

I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[upscope]

Play #8

Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)

I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

my total is 40

[mdfizzle]

Good luck

[Love The Action]

If you like and trust steam, you might want to think about the SMU/Rice over. Someone bought it down to 51 and starting 20 minutes before game time slammed it all the way up to 54....that's a syndicate move.

[GChild]

If you like and trust steam, you might want to think about the SMU/Rice over. Someone bought it down to 51 and starting 20 minutes before game time slammed it all the way up to 54....that's a syndicate move.

So play over?

[Love The Action]

my total is 40

Damn...40 sucks. I see a lot of 40.5 right now and would probably recommend buying the hook in this case just to be able to cover 41. As I said, I have it set at 37. However, you have to respect the key number of 41 as it's one of the most important numbers in both NCAAF and NFL. Good luck on whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

So play over?

I don't chase steam personally and can't endorse it. I'm just pointing it out there for those of you that play that sort of thing.

[Love The Action]

GT missed an easy touchdown on that opening trick pass. Stephen Hill was wide open and they threw it to the wrong guy

[GChild]

Omg dint even see Rutgers under

[Love The Action]

Too bad the games don't start until Christmas... Those Xmas games afforded such a huge betting opportunity when they were a month into the season, however i suspect the angles I normally used to approach them will be worthless this year because the players will have no games under their belts already... But damn it, I'm stoked for this. I missed Hoops so much.

[Love The Action]

Omg dint even see Rutgers under

You're luck. First, Rutgers fumbled at their own 24 on their opening drive which led to a quick Ucon TD. Then, they throw a pick on the very next possession at their own 40 resulting in another quick TD. Unfuking real. That pisses me off....

[Love The Action]

Wow...another Rutgers fumble returned for a touchdown. 3 Rutgers turnovers resulting in 21 points for UConn. Exactly what we said we needed to avoid to cash this play. Maybe its fixed

This game is just infuriating to watch.

[hondo5]

Gtech on the verge of falling apart. Looking like a rough day man

[hondo5]

Nvm. Past the verge. Have fallen apart. Time to move on.

[SUPREME]

Nvm. Past the verge. Have fallen apart. Time to move on.

Thanks for the negative energy early in the third quarter...let save some of that for the end too, buddy.

[Moneyliner7]

Lta.. Thanks for all of ur work... Im excited nba coming back.. How many units were you up last year?Ive never done well in nba so hoping i can tail you and make some cash!!

[Fanatik]

Anything is possible and I am sure you know your SEC football, however, I find your argument flawed in that you using all qualitative factors as the base of your argument. The spread in previous Iron Bowl's does not matter in relation to today's game. When you say this is a "huge" game, you are correct. However, it's a huge game, but one that I could argue is MORE important to Bama. The Tide are the team on (1) revenge and (2) fighting for a National Championship. Auburn wants to win, but does not have the same motivational factors as Alabama.

However, the main reason your argument is flawed is that you ignore all quantitative factors and the players on the field. Alabama is clearly the superior team ranked top 3 on both offense and defense in the advanced stats where Auburn is in the 60's. I have this one set at 24 points based primarily on the stats and you can't deny Bama's superiority. Plus, with Auburn going with Moseley in what is essentially only his second or third start against one of the best and most athletic defenses in the modern era, I would never back Auburn in this spot. I think Alabama rolls today and we can agree to disagree on this one. Good luck on your plays bud.

Just put small bet on Bama...Respect!

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #2

Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. I am rolling with GT and the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3

Bowling Green (+3) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #4

Louisville/South Florida under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #5

Kent State/Temple under (41) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #6

Houston/Tulsa under (78.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #7

Alabama (-21) 2x (Locked)

I don't really think the Auburn home field advantage is enough to keep this one within 21. The Tide is the clearly superior team in this particular Iron Bowl with a defense that might just rank up there with some of the best. The Bama defense has 8-10 players that will play on Sundays and I expect them to run roughshot over a still raw Moseley. Alabama clearly dominates Auburn on both sides of offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ where the Tide are ranked top 3 (1st in many categories) and Auburn is in the 60's. In addition, Bama is playing with revenge and with the need to win with "style" points to ensure itself a rematch with LSU in the National Championship. I think we see the Tide roll -- or is the that Roll tide -- and I am rolling with Alabama for 2x. Good luck.

Play #8

Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)

I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #7 for total of 2x on Alabama (-21). Correct units denoted above.

I think we see this one close at -22 or higher. Good luck.

[canepole]

Ala will romp

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #2

Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked)

This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. I am rolling with GT and the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3

Bowling Green (+3) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #4

Louisville/South Florida under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #5

Kent State/Temple under (41) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #6

Houston/Tulsa under (78.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #7

Alabama (-21) 3x (Locked)

I don't really think the Auburn home field advantage is enough to keep this one within 21. The Tide is the clearly superior team in this particular Iron Bowl with a defense that might just rank up there with some of the best. The Bama defense has 8-10 players that will play on Sundays and I expect them to run roughshot over a still raw Moseley. Alabama clearly dominates Auburn on both sides of offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ where the Tide are ranked top 3 (1st in many categories) and Auburn is in the 60's. In addition, Bama is playing with revenge and with the need to win with "style" points to ensure itself a rematch with LSU in the National Championship. I think we see the Tide roll -- or is the that Roll tide -- and I am rolling with Alabama for 2.5x. Good luck.

Play #8

Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)

I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #7 for total of 3x on Alabama (-21). Correct units denoted above.

[Love The Action]

I really wanted to play Vanderbilt, but I got scared off by today's line movement. Let's see if that was the right decision or not. I will really kick myself if Vandy ends up winning....

[BigDan]

I really wanted to play Vanderbilt, but I got scared off by today's line movement. Let's see if that was the right decision or not. I will really kick myself if Vandy ends up winning....

same here...

with you on Bama...Roll tide!!